Food Consumption Patterns and Nutrition in Urban Java Households: The Discriminatory Power of some Socioeconomic Variables

Food consumption patterns are undergoing substantial change in many countries as economic development proceeds. The trend is a move away from traditional cereals towards higher-value and higher-protein foods. Explaining such changes only in terms of traditional economic variables can lead to biased estimates of income effects and perhaps biased projections of food demand. Household survey data from Indonesia are used to measure the importance of several socioeconomic variables in explaining differences in household food consumption patterns and nutrition. Household expenditure and the level of women's education are shown to be the most influential in this explanation.     

Critical issues suggested by trends in food,population, and the environment to the year 2020

This article reviews the emerging trends in global food supply and demand up to 2020, and discusses policy challenges and obstacles to meeting this demand. Data were obtained from the International Food Policy Research Institute's International Model for Policy Analysis of Commodities and Trade (Rosegrant et al.). The country-specific data pertains to 37 countries and regions and 17 food commodities and prices in the world market. Cereal prices are expected to decline by about 11% by 2020; meat prices may decline by 6%. After 2010, cereal prices are expected to dramatically decline. Cereal demand will change with changes in income and urbanization. Maize and coarse grains will be replaced by wheat and rice. Life style changes may lead to a switch from rice to wheat. Growth in food consumption in developed countries will slow. A projected 82% of growth in global cereal consumption and almost 90% of increased global meat demand will occur in developing countries during 1993-2020. Asia alone will account for 48% of increased cereal consumption and 61% of increased meat consumption. 88% of food production growth will occur in developing countries through increased yields and 94% in developed countries. World trade in cereals will increase from an estimated 185 million metric tons annually to 328 million during 1993-2020. Food security for the poor and child malnutrition will remain unimproved. Yield growth is affected by agricultural research, fertilizer and energy use, land degradation, water scarcity, and bad policy. Water scarcity is the most limiting on yield growth. Malnutrition problems present multiple challenges.     

Some neglected issues in food demand analysis: retail-level demand, health information and product quality

Food demand analysis is dominated by the econometric estimation of demand systems based on aggregate market data and steady progress has been made in analytical techniques. Yet some issues have been neglected in food demand analysis which are crucial for understanding recent consumption trends in industrialised countries. Three of these issues are dealt with here: analysis of food demand at the retail level; influence of health information on food demand; and importance of product quality for food demand. It is shown that answers to important questions in these areas can be given when large and unconventional data sets are used.     

Structural changes in the demand for food in Asia: empirical evidence from Taiwan

Many Asian countries are expected to undergo structural transformations in their economies and rapid urbanization over the next 25 years. The changes in tastes and lifestyles engendered by urban living are likely to have significant influences on food demand. Changes in marketing systems and occupational changes, closely linked with increasing GNP per capita, also may influence the demand for food. In this paper, estimates presented for Taiwan demonstrate that structural changes in food demand (as distinguished from changes due to income and price effects) have been significant factors driving the rapid changes in dietary patterns seen in East Asia over the past three decades. Because most previous demand studies have ignored the possible influence of structural shifts which are highly correlated with increases in per capita income over time, the effects of income on food demand have been overestimated.     

Demand for animal‐derived food in selected Asian countries: A system‐wide analysis

Food consumption patterns in Asia show a trend away from staples toward high protein food derived from animal and dairy products, fruit and vegetables, fats and oils. Such changes in food consumption patterns are due to rising incomes, urbanization, globalization, and modernization of marketing infrastructure. In this article, we analyze the demand for the animal‐derived food group comprising meat (chicken, beef, pork, and mutton), eggs and fish, and derive income and price elasticities in seven Asian countries using the system‐wide approach. Demand homogeneity and Slutsky symmetry properties were tested and found to be compatible with the data. Our findings reveal that animal‐derived food as a group is a necessity (except in Taiwan) and its demand is price inelastic (except in Taiwan and Sri Lanka). The implied unconditional demand elasticities reveal that, in all countries (except beef in Japan and Taiwan), chicken, beef, pork, mutton, eggs and fish (except in Taiwan) are all necessities and the demand for all types of animal‐derived food in all seven countries are mostly price inelastic. The cross‐price elasticity estimates are mostly found to be positive, meaning that there is a higher degree of substitutability between chicken, beef, pork, mutton, eggs, and fish.     

China's changing diet and its impacts on greenhouse gas emissions: an index decomposition analysis

With increasing awareness of agriculture's contribution to global greenhouse gases (GHGs) and China's position as the world's top GHG emitter, there is heightened attention to the embodied emissions in China's food consumption. China's diet has shifted to include more fruit, vegetables, meat and dairy. Not surprisingly, GHG emissions from food consumption have also increased substantially. This analysis links China's food consumption with the emissions of food production industries in China and its trade partners to determine the effects of dietary change on GHGs since 1989. We utilise high‐resolution food production and emissions data to perform a logarithmic mean Divisia index decomposition to attribute changes in GHG emissions to the scale, supply structure, demand structure and efficiency effects resulting from Chinese dietary changes over a 20‐year period. This study finds that while countries supplying food to China contribute little to China's food‐related GHGs, demands for meat and dairy play a much larger role, driving up emissions. The overall scale of increased consumption of all food further propels growth in GHG emissions. Results indicate, however, that while food consumption in China more than doubles between 1989 and 2009 improvements in technological efficiency limit the rate of increase.     

TOWARDS A BROADER UNDERSTANDING OF MEAT DEMAND — PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS

This paper sets out meat consumption trends in the United Kingdom and within other EU countries over the past 40 years; it shows that whereas in the UK meat consumption has only increased by a small amount, for other EU countries it has almost doubled. In analysing the data in more detail, it is apparent that ‘non-price/income’ factors have been playing a more important part both for the UK and other EU countries. It is true that in recent years there has been much more published empirical work on the effect of different attitude, demographic and structural factors on meat demand; commercial and Governmental organisations have also been collecting a significant amount of relevant unpublished data. However, there has not been much recent progress on integrated approaches which combine the analyses of the consumer behaviourist with those of the economist. The paper concludes by stating that this is an area of growing importance for the food industry and those interested in analysing food demand trends. Agricultural economists should therefore get more involved in it.     

The nutrition transition to 2030. Why developing countries are likely to bear the major burden

Considerable increases in food consumption, shifts in consumption patterns and changes in the entire food system have occurred globally. These changes, initially limited to the industrialized world, are now being experienced at an even faster pace in many of the advanced economies of the developing world. The past evolution of this transition in nutrition and lifestyles is by now well documented. Based on FAO's outlook for global food and agriculture, this paper outlines the likely future changes in food consumption patterns and the global trajectory of the nutrition transition over the next 30 years. It presents the main drivers of the nutrition transition and examines their influence on the prospective changes in consumption patterns. The paper illustrates how the current burden of undernourishment and malnutrition in developing countries is likely to compound the adverse effects of the nutrition transition, notably the increasing prevalence of obesity and non-communicable diseases (NCDs); it shows how and where the current problem of undernutrition could create a growing future burden of overweight, obesity and NCDs and that both undernourishment and overnutrition are likely to co-exist for a long time in the vast majority of developing countries, creating a widespread double burden of malnutrition.     

China's agriculture,smallholders and trade: driven by the livestock revolution?*

China's sustained rapid economic growth and development has contributed to the surge in consumption and production of livestock in that country  termed the livestock revolution. Consumption trends are first reviewed, and changes in food consumption patterns include a marked shift away from grains and towards meats and dairy products. A question is to what extent this rapid increase in demand for livestock products is reflected in China's agri‐food trade statistics? While her agri‐food imports have dramatically increased since China's accession to the WTO, livestock products have not made a noticeable contribution, although the import of certain animal feedstuffs has. This implies China's continuing self‐sufficiency in most livestock products. The paper next considers developments in China's livestock farming sector and policies that have been contributing to these supply‐side developments. The paper concludes with an examination of issues that may be important to the future development of China's, and the world's, livestock situation;  this includes future demand developments, and the question of whether future demand growth in China might be met with local production, imports of final product, and/or imports of feedstuffs.     

Food Demand in Russia: Heterogeneous Consumer Segments over Time

The Russian food system has undergone substantial changes. However, knowledge on how economic transition has affected the structural parameters of food demand is lacking. Based on a two‐stage LES‐LA/AIDS model and annual panel data from the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (1995–2010), we provide a comprehensive set of food demand elasticities for Russia along two dimensions. First, we estimate demand parameters for three characteristic time periods in order to trace changes during transition. Second, to account for the Russian population's diversity, we derive elasticities for five different consumer segments. These groups are established by a cluster analysis based on households' food purchases. Our findings suggest that demand for food is far from satiated in Russia. We find generally high unconditional expenditure and own‐price elasticities for food. Both expenditure and own‐price elasticities show slight decreases in absolute terms over time. Low expenditure elasticities for staple foods like bread or cereals and high values for luxury goods such as meat, alcohol and tobacco suggest considerable changes in the composition of food baskets with further income growth. Results indicate that food production at home loses in importance while more affluent households in particular increase their demand for food consumption away from home.     

Economic growth,convergence, and agricultural economics

After nearly two centuries of lagging behind the industrial countries, growth in many developing countries has surged since the early 1990s. This outperformance has major implications for almost all areas of agricultural economics and, if continued, will likely do so into the future. This article aims to identify the key ways in which the changes in rich and poor country growth rates matter for agricultural economists, as a basis for formulating better research agendas. A key impact arises through sharp increases in demand for agricultural resources as demand for livestock products increases. This changing structure of food demand has important implications for nutrition studies and policies, with the emergence of a double burden of malnutrition. On the supply side, growth in developing countries tends to increase domestic food supply, which is also boosted by increases in research and development spending. Growth in developing countries both stimulates and benefits from increases in infrastructure investment, evaluation of which requires new analytical tools. Negative impacts include the contribution of increased demand for livestock products to global greenhouse gas emissions. In terms of trade policy, growth in developing country is tending to lead to convergence of agricultural policies with the pattern of assistance seen in today's developed countries, raising concerns about the future need to deal with collective action problems, particularly those that increase the volatility of world prices.     

At‐home meat consumption in China: an empirical study*

The remarkable economic changes occurring within China since 1978 have resulted in a striking alteration in food consumption patterns, and one marked change is the increasing consumption of meat. Given China’s large population, a small percentage change in per capita meat consumption could lead to a dramatic impact on the production and trade of agricultural products. Such changes have major implications for policy makers and food marketers. This paper concentrates on meat consumption patterns in the home in China. A censored linear approximate almost ideal demand system model was employed in the study, and major economic parameters were estimated for different meat items. Data used in this study were collected from two separate consumer surveys – one urban and one rural in 2005.     

城镇化对我国粮食刚性需求影响的研究

粮食安全问题是目前城镇化进程中的风险之一.通过分析后认为,城镇化过程中粮食总体消费弹性区间呈收窄趋势,粮食刚性需求越来越大,这一现象在城镇地区相较于农村地区更为显著.其次,虽然粮食产量持续增长,但由于不确定性的增多,农产品供给难以保持与需求同步增长,一旦发生粮食减产,势必从多方面威胁到我国的经济形势.     

An econometric analysis of rice consumption in the People's Republic of China

Rice is the most important staple food in the People's Republic of China (PRO. In many Asian countries rice appears to have become an inferior good, with income increases leading to declines in per capita consumption as other food products are substituted for rice. In this study, human rice consumption is analyzed with a model that allows income elasticities to vary with income levels. An additional equation accounting for rice disappearance as seed, livestock feed, industrial uses and exports is also estimated. The results of the analysis indicate that rice has become an inferior good in China and per capita consumption is likely to decline in the future. Population growth and the growing use of rice for other purposes means that total rice disappearance will continue to increase although at a rate that is slower than has historically been the case. The predicted changes in rice consumption will create pressures to adjust production and trade patterns for rice as well as other agricultural products.     

Lithuania's food demand during economic transition

The linear approximate version of the almost ideal demand system (LA‐AIDS) model is estimated using data from the Lithuanian household budget survey (HBS) covering the period from July 1992 to December 1994. Price and real expenditure elasticities for 12 food groups were estimated based on the estimated coefficients of the model. Very little or nothing is known about the demand parameters of Lithuania and other former socialist countries, so the results are of intrinsic interest. Estimated expenditure elasticities were positive and statistically significant for all food groups, while all own‐price elasticities were negative and statistically significant, except for that of eggs which was insignificant. Results suggest that Lithuanian household consumption did respond to price and real income changes during their transition to a market‐oriented economy.     

Generic Promotion of Sorghum for Food and Industrial Uses

Abstract

Globally, over half of all sorghum is used for human consumption. Yet sorghum is largely unknown as a food in the United States and other developed countries. Recently, the U.S. demand for sorghum as a gluten-free, non-GMO input to food products has been growing. At the same time, the use of sorghum for food and industrial uses is being promoted by the producer-financed United Sorghum Checkoff Program (USCP). How much of that growth can be attributed to the USCP promotion? Has the investment been profitable for sorghum producers? This study finds that USCP promotion programs have resulted in a 4% increase in the sales value of sorghum for that purpose and a 1% increase in total sorghum farm revenue. The farm level benefit-cost ratio is estimated at between 5.8 and 7.1 in terms of producer profit per dollar spent on promotion.     

新一轮国际粮食价格上涨：原因及对中国市场的影响

[目的]随着中国粮食进口不断增加,国内外市场联系越来越紧密。2020年下半年以来,国际市场粮食价格快速上涨,对国内粮食市场产生一定影响,分析国际市场价格上涨的原因和影响对确保国内粮食供应稳定、保障国家粮食安全具有重要意义。[方法]文章分析了2019年以来小麦、大米、玉米、大豆4种粮食产品的国内外价格走势,从供需状况、贸易政策、气候变化等因素分析国际市场价格波动的原因,并探讨了国际价格对国内价格的影响。[结果]当前全球主要粮食品种供应充足,库存仍处于较高水平,此轮国际粮食价格上涨主要是受到美国等发达国家宽松的货币政策以及疫情后全球消费逐步回暖的影响;但国际市场价格上涨对中国市场的影响总体有限,国内小麦、大米、玉米价格上涨的主因是国内消费回暖和生猪产能恢复带动的饲用需求快速增长,油用大豆受国际市场的影响较大。[结论]为稳定国内粮食市场,避免国际市场的冲击,中国要进一步提升粮食综合生产能力,强化科技支撑,加强粮食储备管理,健全政策支持体系,并引导居民建立科学的消费观念。     

Modelling the likely impact of healthy eating guidelines on agricultural production and land use in England and Wales

Quadratic programming techniques were applied to household food consumption data in England and Wales to estimate likely changes in diet under healthy eating guidelines, and the consequences this would have on agriculture and land use in England and Wales. The first step entailed imposing nutrient restrictions on food consumption following dietary recommendations suggested by the UK Department of Health. The resulting diet was used, in a second step as a proxy for demand in agricultural commodities, to test the impact of such a scenario on food production and land use in England and Wales and the impacts of this on agricultural landscapes. Results of the diet optimisation indicated a large drop in consumption of foods rich in saturated fats and sugar, essentially cheese and sugar-based products, along with lesser cuts of fat and meat products. Conversely, consumption of fruit and vegetables, cereals, and flour would increase to meet dietary fibre recommendations. Such a shift in demand would dramatically affect production patterns: the financial net margin of England and Wales agriculture would rise, due to increased production of high market value and high economic margin crops. Some regions would, however, be negatively affected, mostly those dependent on beef cattle and sheep production that could not benefit from an increased demand for cereals and horticultural crops. The effects of these changes would also be felt in upstream industries, such as animal feed suppliers. While arable dominated landscapes would be little affected, pastoral landscapes would suffer through loss of grazing management and, possibly, land abandonment, especially in upland areas.     

Household Food Demand in Burkina Faso: Implications for Food Policy

Chronic food production deficits since the early 1970s have prompted policymakers of Burkina Faso to emphasize technological research with the goal of increasing the production of the most-consumed locally-grown cereals: sorghum, millet and maize. Meanwhile, urban consumers have been developing preferences for rice and wheat, cereals that are primarily imported. This study estimates demand relationships among food items in Ouagadougou, Burkina. The results of the estimation suggest that prices, income, household composition, education, marital status and urbanization were jointly important in explaining household expenditure allocations. Both local and imported cereal consumption responded positively to an income increase. However, incremental income changes would lead to relatively greater consumption of locally produced cereals by low-income households whereas high-income households would consume relatively more wheat and rice. The household model is then used to demonstrate its relevance in addressing food policy issues, by forecasting the levels of urban grain demand under alternative income and demographic scenarios. With increased production due to advances in technology, the urban demand levels do not exhaust the rural surplus of local cereals, but deficits persist in the rice-wheat sector. The results underscore the importance of technological research since Burkina could become self-sufficient in at least the production of sorghum, millet and maize.     

Expenditure Pattern for Food Away from Home Consumption in Turkey

ABSTRACT

One of the largest recent changes in consumer food purchasing behavior is the trend towards greater consumption of food eaten outside the home. Between 1994 and 2000, the share of total food expenditures spent on food away from home (FAFH) increased from 7 to 15% with an increasing share for fast-food facilities. This study focuses on whether demographic and socioeconomic factors have detectable effects on Turkish FAFH expenditures. This question is of interest because previous studies suggest that increasing household income, education, female labor participation and changing lifestyle especially in developing countries increased household FAFH consumption share but decreased food at home consumption share. However, no study to our knowledge has examined the combined effect of income, education, employment, and family status on Turkish FAFH consumption. The data for this research were obtained from personal interviews of representative sample households of the province of Adana in Turkey. The findings of this study generally indicate that restaurant facilities, employment of wife and education, composition of household, and income are statistically significant determinants of FAFH consumption.