The Export Trading Company Act of 1982:

This study of 110 Export Management Companies (EMCs) investigates their perceptions of the potential impact of the Export Trading Company Act (ETCA) of 1982 on their future growth possibilities. Specifically it examines what product types might best be handled by an American Export Trading Company (AETC), and what types of trading activities an AETC would be expected to engage in. In addition, respondents were asked about specific features of the ETCA that they liked or disliked. The results of this study indicate perhaps as many as 20% of current EMCs may enter into some type of Export Trading Company arrangement, and some of the AETCs are likely to evolve into something similar to a Japanese sogo shosha. However, the development of these "American sogo shoshas" will be much slower than many supporters of the AETC of 1982 appear to have hoped for.     

The effect of oil price shocks on asset markets: Evidence from oil inventory news

We quantify the reaction of U.S. equity, bond futures, and exchange rate returns to oil price shocks driven by oil inventory news. Across most sectors, equity prices decrease in response to higher oil prices before the 2007/2008 crisis but increase after it. Positive oil price shocks cause a depreciation of the U.S. dollar against a broad range of currencies but have only a modest effect on bond futures returns. The evidence suggests that changes in risk premia help to explain the time-varying effect of oil price shocks on U.S. equity returns.     

Two Contrasting Phenomena in Textile Exports

As the two traditional markets for China＇s tex- tile and clothing exports, the U.S. and Europe have recently shown a huge contrast.     

Japan's Negative Risk Premium in Interest Rates: The Liquidity Trap and the Fall in Bank Lending

Japan's interest rates have been compressed toward zero because of pressure coming through the foreign exchanges. Twenty years of current‐account surpluses have led to a huge buildup of claims – mainly dollars – on foreigners. Because of ongoing fluctuations in the yen/dollar exchange rate, Japanese financial institutions will only willingly hold these dollar claims if the nominal yield on them is substantially higher than on yen assets. In the 1990s to 2002 as US interest rates have come down, portfolio equilibrium has been sustained only when nominal interest rates on yen assets have been forced toward zero. One consequence is the now infamous liquidity trap for Japanese monetary policy. A second consequence is the erosion of the normal profit margins of Japan's commercial banks, leading to a slump in new bank credit and an inability to grow out of the overhang of old bad loans.     

Bankers' responses to the ETC Act: Attitudes and the degree of international involvement

Past research has identified several variables as determinants of the export behavior for manufacturing firms. This article studies the banking community's decision to participate in the Export Trading Company Act of 1982 by examining their attitudes and their degree of international involvement. It concludes that the banking community's intention to participate in export trading companies is indeed a function of their attitudes toward the legislation and the stage of their international involvement.     

东亚区域汇率合作与协调：基于一般均衡模型的分析

研究东亚货币合作和汇率协调的理论模型在20世纪80年代初期以后获得较快的发展．其中早期的理论模型多是局部均衡分析,或者是应用博弈论建立的理论模型。通过建立三个国家的一般均衡理论模型,我们可以看到东亚各经济体对美元或者日元的单一钉住不如钉住一篮子货币。在东亚汇率合作中,钉住以贸易为权重的货币篮子是一种纳什均衡,它可以缓冲美元与日元汇率变动对各经济体的宏观经济所带来的冲击。     

The impact of mergers in banking : Evidence from a nationwide sample of federally chartered banks

Spurred by deregulation, cost, and risk factors, commercial bank mergers have accelerated sharply in recent years. Many banks appear to be positioning themselves for the advent of interstate banking through holding company or reciprocal branching arrangements. Yet, the performance effects of mergers among operating U.S. banks (as opposed to holding company acquisitions) have been examined both infrequently and inconclusively. This study focuses upon the characteristics and performance effects of national bank mergers occurring during the 1970–1980 period. Acquiring national banks were found to have lower operating efficiency and productivity than nonmerging banks and their profitability did not increase following the mergers, but credit availability, productivity, loan losses, deposit service charges, and interest-rate risk did rise. Frequency of merger activity did not significantly influence bank profitability or growth, but did augment stockholder risks and increase business and real-estate credit. In the aggregate, national bank mergers appeared to result neither in significant service benefits nor in significant service costs to the public.Spurred by deregulation of the industry, rising cost pressures, and increased operating risk, merger transactions among U.S. banks have soared in recent years. During the 1982–1986 period, for example, banking led all other industries in the number of consummated mergers and consistently was among the ten leading U.S. industries in the estimated market value of merger agreements. Moreover, the recent upsurge in reciprocal interstate banking agreements and proposals for fully legalized interstate banking hold out the prospect for a further acceleration in bank merger transactions in the years ahead. In view of the fact that legislation in more than 30 states now permits some form of interstate banking by merger or de novo entry and a June 1985 ruling of the U.S. Supreme Court has legitimized regional banking compacts, the public and private impact of bank mergers becomes of much greater importance as a research focus.Despite the magnitude of recent bank merger transactions and their implications for the public, the research literature in this area is surprisingly meager and often contradictory. This article is an attempt to focus more sharply on recent research findings, provide additional evidence concerning the effects of mergers on the financial performance of banks, and assess their impact on the public's interest in an adequate supply of financial services.     

Borrowing Without Debt? Understanding the U.S. International Investment Position

Sustained large U.S. current account deficits have led some economists and policymakers to worry that future current account adjustment could occur through a sudden and disruptive depreciation of the dollar and a sharp drop in U.S. consumption. Two factors that, to date, have cast doubt on such concerns are the stability of U.S. net external liabilities and the minimal net income payments made by the United States on these liabilities. We show that the stability of the external position reflects sizable capital gains stemming from strong foreign equity markets and a weaker dollar—conditions that could be reversed in the future. We also show that while minimal U.S. net income payments reflect a much higher measured rate of return on U.S. foreign direct investment (FDI) assets than on U.S. FDI liabilities, JEL Classification F21     

美国技术壁垒对我国农业出口影响的实证研究

重点研究美国农业技术壁垒对我国农业出口的影响。建立向量自回归模型,通过脉冲响应函数和方差分析得出我国农业出口与国外技术壁垒间的相关关系。模型结果表明,美国农业技术壁垒长期内会对我国农业出口产生负面影响,其对我国农产品出口的影响随时间推移逐渐变小。国外消费者需求与我国农产品出口存在显著关系。     

Environmental Risk and Foreign Equity Ownership in Joint Ventures in China

ABSTRACT

Environmental risk in a host country is a key issue that foreign firms must deal with when deciding how much equity ownership to acquire and how much control to have in an equity joint venture (EJV) in that country. This study examines the relationship between changes in the risk situations in China and the level of foreign equity ownership in the EJV. It hypothesizes that Japanese partners would be more likely than U.S. or Hong Kong partners to acquire a 50% or higher level of equity ownership. This tendency would become more pronounced when the risk conditions in China deteriorate. The empirical results, based on 3,838 EJVs in China that had foreign partners from U.S., Japan, Hong Kong and Europe during the 1979–1992 period, are largely consistent with the hypotheses.     

The US stock market and the international value of the US dollar

We investigate the spillover effect of the US equity market on the value of the dollar and therefore on the return and volatility of US equity investments for the international investor. The data are daily observations of the S & P 500 and the US dollar in terms of seven foreign currencies covering the period 1971–2002. Using Geweke measures of feedback, we find a high percentage of contemporaneous association between daily movements in the S & P 500 index and changes in the value of the dollar. A consistently positive relationship between the S & P 500 and the dollar is found for the period 1992–2002, creating a compounding effect for the foreign investor in US equities. However, investment by foreigners in US equities did not result in consistently higher returns but in higher volatility compared to their US counterparts for the period 1971–2002.     

A Review of “Global Marketing Management: Changes,New Challenges and Strategies”

The paper reports the results of a study of 110 Export Management Companies (EMCs) located throughout the United States. These EMCs were surveyed to find out what international marketing tasks were most important for successful exporting and how difficult these tasks were to perform for their clients. This study also investigated the perceived importance to the ECMs' exporting success of various groups who often provide exporting assistance to exporters. In addition, these respondents were asked to respond to the helpfulness to their exporting activities of current and potential U.S. government actions. The two areas which were indicated to be most important to successful exporting were gathering marketing information and communicating with markets. However, the two areas which these EMCs feel to be most difficult to accomplish were analyzing political risk and sales force management. A gap analysis of these results suggests that the need which exporters most need help in is pricing in foreign markets. This research provides the basis for several policy recommendations to U.S. government leaders concerning their efforts to assist American exporters.     

The Eurozone formation: MNC and international bank reactions

Introduction of the Euro has brought dramatic changes to the perceptions and realities of MNC finance. These changes vary considerably based on whether the multinational company has integrated its U.S. and European treasury operations or is U.S. dollar‐centric in finance orientation. We conducted a survey to determine changes in U.S.‐based MNC treasury practice resulting from the Eurozone formation. This article reports the results of this survey with regard to hedging activities, European banking arrangements, and Euro financial market sourcing. The effects on the two types of MNCs are compared. Implications for international banks are examined. Recent Eurozone bank merger developments are also reviewed, with special focus on M&A developments in both France and Germany. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Does governing law affect bond spreads?

Controlling for bond and issuer characteristics, bond spreads are expected to be equal across different legal jurisdictions, and differences are expected to disappear through arbitrage. However, an analysis of 490 U.S. dollar–denominated bonds issued by 53 emerging market sovereigns during 1990–2015 reveals that after the financial crisis of 2008, launch spreads of sovereign bonds issued under U.K. law have been higher than those issued under U.S. law, by 130 basis points for BB+ bonds and 175 basis points for B− bonds. This effect was not significant for investment grade bonds. On average, bonds issued under U.K. law had weaker ratings and shorter tenors post-crisis. The post-crisis impact of governing law on sovereign bond spreads is not explained by collective action clauses, or first-time bond issuances. Instead, the difference seems to be related to the perception that U.S. law offers stronger investor protection, and that the investor base for bonds issued under U.S. law is larger than that for bonds issued under U.K. law. The difference in spreads persists in the secondary market even after 180 days, perhaps because of the lack of liquidity, as investors tend to buy and hold these more attractive bonds on a longer-term basis.     

The Retail Travels of the U.S. Greenback: A Comparative Study of Currency Substitution Along the U.S.-Canadian and U.S.-Mexican Borders

This currency substitution study explores the extent of retail firm-level U.S. dollar acceptance in Canada and Mexico. Employing a stratified random sampling approach of retail business in the border region, results demonstrate that all Mexican firms (N = 300/300) and nearly all Canadian (N = 257/261) firms accept the U.S. dollar in retail transactions. Of greater interest is the difference between firms in the two countries in how acceptance of the U.S. dollar is operationalized. On average, U.S. dollar sales of Canadian border firms comprise just 3.4% of total sales whereas U.S. dollar sales of Mexican firms encompass 23.7% of total sales. Our results also indicate a stark contrast as to the effective exchange rate for U.S. dollar acceptance— Canadian firms typically charge a premium (2.1% on average) while 69.3% of Mexican firms transacted business at a discount (?0.8% on average). Additional analyses further refine the currency substitution distinctions between Canadian and Mexican firms in the sample including a logistical regression which reveals significant differences as to firm-level predictors of U.S. dollar acceptance (whether at a discount or premium).     

上海、香港、新加坡服务出口技术结构比较分析

服务贸易出口整体技术水平指数显示,上海服务出口技术水平虽不断提高,但还落后于香港、新加坡,原因可能在于上海高技术服务(金融服务、版权与专利许可费服务)出口发展缓慢;服务出口技术结构优化指数显示,上海服务出口技术结构优化速度显著高于香港、新加坡,表明上海服务出口技术水平正不断提升。就服务贸易出口发展策略而言,上海应借鉴香港、新加坡的经验,着力推动高技术服务的出口,以符合国际金融中心建设和创新驱动发展主线的内在要求。     

Bank presence in firm equity: A diversification based approach

This study analyses the possible reasons for banks deciding to invest in firm equity, based on the fundamentals of the strategic diversification literature. Those fundamentals suggest that it may be in response to the negative evolution of other aspects of banking business, namely, credit business, fixed interest business and services, as well as the bank's level of efficiency. The results confirm the hypotheses that the decision to hold equity in other firms is related to the evolution of the bank's other businesses. However, the results for savings banks differed from those for banks.     

US Dollar's Appreciation Despite the Financial Crisis

During the Asian financial crisis, the exchange rate of Thai baht against U.S. dollar grew by 17%. The rate of Korean won against U.S. dollar skyrocketed to a record high of 1008:1 and that of Indonesian rupi-ah against dollar even crossed the 10000:1 mark. However, after the international financial crisis broke out in 2008, the dol-lar index turned out to rise dramatically. On November 21, 2008, the dollar index reached 88 points, rising by 23.3% over the 71 points on April 22, 2008. Conven-tional wisdom is that a currency should depreciate when the economic fundamen-tals are in a downturn. Then how do we explain the substantial appreciation of the U.S. dollar?     

美元霸权兴衰与逻辑演进

本文首先回顾了美元与国际货币的演化进程,诠释了美元霸权地位形成的路径,分析了美元作为经济武器能收割世界财富的缘由。其次,揭示了布雷顿森林体系解体后,美元仍然能收割世界财富的原因,说明了美国贸易逆差的实质。再次,分析了本次新冠疫情之后,美元霸权的延续可能会出现的一些颠覆性变化,以及美元作为主导货币地位的变化。最后,分析了国际货币体系未来会出现的几种情境,以及人民币在这一历史变局中的前景,并提出了中国在长周期应该采取的应对之策。     

美国技术壁垒对我国机电产品出口的影响

本文利用扩展的贸易引力模型,分析我国和美国经济发展水平、人民币兑美元汇率以及美国机电行业技术壁垒各因素变动对我国机电产品出口的影响。分析结果表明美国技术壁垒与我国机电产品出口显著相关,美国技术壁垒的提高会对我国机电产品出口产生小幅抑制作用,美国GDP是影响我国机电产品出口的最主要因素。