Multilateral,Regional and Bilateral Trade‐Policy Options for the United States and Japan

We have used the Michigan Model of World Production and Trade to simulate the economic effects on the United States, Japan, and other major trading countries/regions of the Doha Round of WTO multilateral trade negotiations and a variety of regional/bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) involving the United States and Japan. We estimate that an assumed reduction of post‐Uruguay Round tariffs and other barriers on agricultural and industrial products and services by 33 per cent in the Doha Round would increase world welfare by $686.4 billion, with gains of $164.0 billion for the United States, $132.6 billion for Japan, and significant gains for all other industrialised and developing countries/regions. If there were global free trade with all post‐Uruguay Round trade barriers completely removed, world welfare would increase by $2.1 trillion, with gains of $497.0 billion (5.5 per cent of GNP) for the United States and $401.9 billion (6.2 per cent of GNP) for Japan. Regional agreements such as an APEC FTA, an ASEAN Plus 3 FTA, and a Western Hemisphere FTA would increase global and member country welfare but much less so than the Doha multilateral trade round would. Separate bilateral FTAs involving Japan with Singapore, Mexico, Chile and Korea, and the United States with Chile, Singapore and Korea would have positive, though generally small, welfare effects on the partner countries, but potentially disruptive sectoral employment shifts in some countries. There would be trade diversion and detrimental welfare effects on some non‐member countries for both the regional and bilateral FTAs analysed. The welfare gains from multilateral trade liberalisation are therefore considerably greater than the gains from preferential trading arrangements and more uniformly positive for all countries.     

Action,regulation, and response: The tobacco industry in the United States and Canada

One of the discoveries of the New World was tobacco. It was brought to Spain by Columbus and other explorers and used for a multitude of medicinal purposes, but not until Sir Walter Raleigh brought tobacco to the English throne, explaining that the native peoples smoked this leaf, and started using a clay pipe in 1586, did smoking tobacco become known and accepted in Europe. From these beginnings in what would become Virginia, the United States tobacco industry of today grew. Today, tobacco generates some $45 billion profits for the publicly held companies in the United States, while in Canada in 1983, the sale of cigarettes alone generated Canadian $62.7 billion.     

The Payoff to America from Globalisation

This article summarizes the economic payoff to the United States from its postwar trade opening and estimates the potential future gains from more opening going forward. To quantify these gains, we survey different methodologies and estimates. We find that trade opening since World War II has added between $800 billion to $1.4 trillion to the US economy, or about $7,000 to $13,000 per household. More speculative estimates of the potential additional gains from removing the rest of US trade barriers range from $400 billion to $1.3 trillion, or about $4,000 to $12,000 per household. Since trade opening permanently raises national income, these gains are enjoyed annually. Trade opening inevitably entails adjustment costs. We estimate that the lifetime cost of all worker dislocations that have been triggered by expanded trade in the United States could be as high as $54 billion, although probably less. The permanent gains from past and potential liberalization easily swamp the modest sums necessary to alleviate the temporary pains of adjustment. In the future as in the past, free trade can significantly raise income – and quality of life – in America.     

纺织品出口壁垒在前

中国纺织品进入"自由贸易"时代,但出口壁垒并未消除。企业对此所持的理性态度,反映出了整个行业的成熟。     

Evasion behaviors of exporters and importers: Evidence from the U.S.–China trade data discrepancy

Since the late 1990s, reported U.S. imports from China and Hong Kong have regularly and increasingly exceeded reported exports of China and Hong Kong to the United States. This discrepancy, which is not caused by re-exporting through Hong Kong, varies by product categories, and in some cases takes the opposite sign. In this paper, we focus on China's direct exports to the United States. Using a model that allows for simultaneous misreporting to two authorities, we find strong statistical evidence of under-reporting exports at the Chinese border to avoid paying value-added tax (VAT). The value of VAT avoided is estimated at $6.5 billion during 2002–2008, and the associated understatements account for approximately two-thirds of the discrepancy. We also provide evidence of tariff evasion at the U.S. border, in particular for related-party transactions, and indirect evidence of transfer pricing and evasion of Chinese capital controls. An estimated $2 billion of U.S. tariff revenue is lost due to such evasion during 2002–2008, which reduces the apparent size of the statistical discrepancy.     

The Impact of the Tariff-Rate Quota on Imports of Sugar of the United States Economy

This study assesses the impact of the sugar tariff-rate import quota program on the United States economy. The analytical approach used in the study consists of a computable general equilibrium model composed of fourteen producing sectors, fourteen consuming sectors, six household categories classified by income and a government. A complete elimination of the sugar program will result in lower output by all producing sectors (by about $2.85 billion) but for all producing sectors besides the agtriculture-program crops, crude oil, and petroleum refining sectors are considered, output will actually increase (by about $2.98 billion), an increase in the consumption of goods and services (by about $197 million), and an increase in welfare (by about $121 million). The goverment realizes a reduction in revenue of about $15 million.     

BRAZIL-UNITED STATES TRADE: CAPITAL FLIGHT THROUGH ABNORMAL PRICING

Detailed analysis of the statistics of merchandise trade between Brazil and the United States reveals extensive underpricing of exports and overpricing of imports, which has the effect of transferring large amounts of money out of Brazil and into the United States. Previous studies called attention to this possibility without being able to demonstrate convincingly the extent and amount of the practice. This paper reports the results of a systematic investigation of U.S. customs data at its most disaggregate level to document the amount of capital flows which may be hidden in commodity trade. Using deviations from average prices within commodity classes to identify abnormal prices produces conservative estimates of the amount of capital flight from Brazil to the United States of between $2 to $4 billion in 1995 alone, which would be between 10%-20% of total commodity trade between the countries in that year. Some suggestions are developed for using the results to more closely monitor international transactions in order to reduce this amount.     

浅析中国增持美国国债的原因

金融危机后,美国大量发行国债,我国作为出口大国,与此有着密切的联系,因此我国仍在大量增持美国国债。美国财政部公布的做新数据,中国自去年11月以来持有美国国债总额首次突破9000亿美元,在这样庞大的数字下,隐藏着重要的政治经济原因。影响中国持有美国国债的因素有外汇储备结构、中国外汇制度、人民币国际化、中国的国际地位等。中国增持美国国债充分体现中国在维持世界金融稳定、促进世界经济复苏的不可磨灭的功劳。本文从中国央行购买大量美国国债的事实出发,试分析原因以及所产生的影响。     

你是否在逆水行舟

在美国有一句俚语,“你可以不知道现任美国总统是谁?但是你一定会知道奥普拉是谁?”奥普拉温佛瑞在美国可谓是家喻户晓的著名人物。由她主持的《奥普拉脱口秀》曾风靡美国的大街小巷。就连美国总统都希望上她的电视节目来展示自己,以获取选票。2020 年,奥普拉温弗瑞以180 亿美元的财富荣登《2020 胡润全球白手起家女富豪榜》,位列第28 位。     

中美农产品贸易收益核算及贸易摩擦的影响分析

在全球生产分割的背景下,海关统计数据由于包含大量重复计算的成分,并不能真实反映一国某部门的贸易收益情况。文章通过构建跨国投入产出模型,定义增加值出口为衡量双边贸易收益的指标,从增加值出口变化趋势、行业分布情况及贸易收益的实现方式,分别剖析2000~2014年中美两国农产品各部门的增加值出口情况。发现中美农产品双边贸易的盈余方实为中国,农产品行业的大量增加值隐藏在本国的其他部门中出口。中国市场对美国农业经济的拉动作用在提升,两国农产品行业实现收益的方式不同,中国越来越趋向于附加值含量低的粗加工中间品出口。两国农产品贸易关系紧密,对第三国市场的依赖不断下降,中美贸易摩擦对两国农产品行业的收益都将造成较大的冲击。     

中美贸易失衡主因分析

中美两国实现更加平衡的贸易关系对于两国和世界经济极其重要。而中美贸易失衡的不断加剧,则导致双方贸易摩擦频繁发生,影响全球经济强劲、可持续和平衡增长。理论分析和实证检验表明:美对华高技术产品出口管制与中美贸易失衡存在长期稳定的均衡关系,且具有相互促进的"放大效应",出口管制是引发并加剧双边贸易失衡的主要原因。本文认为,本着相互尊重和互利共赢的原则,通过诱制性和强制性方法促使美国付诸实际行动放宽乃至取消高技术产品出口管制,中美贸易失衡将有望解决。     

新贸易保护主义下美国“337调查”发展趋势及其对中国外贸的影响

337调查作为一种新型的贸易壁垒,因其救济力度大、结案迅速、调查程序对原告有利等特点,成为美国企业在知识产权案件中频繁运用的法律手段。本文回顾了美国337调查的发展状况和趋势,探寻中国出口产品频遭337调查的原因,并为国内出口商提出一些应对策略建议。     

The U.S. Television Set Market

The U.S. television set market is projected to reach the $27 billion mark by 2010, up from $25 billion in 2006. The bulk of this growth will come from the flat-panel television set segment, which is projected to grow 65 percent from 2006-2010. The transition to digital television continues to be a major underpinning of the television set market in the United States. Additionally, consumers are increasingly looking to use their television sets for a myriad of non-traditional activities including accessing the Internet, checking e-mail, and watching content accessed from hardware devices like digital video recorders. JEL Classification L63     

从出口数据看福建省玩具产业的近年发展情况

福建玩具产业外延不断扩展,近年来的出口金额、数量和产品单价不断增长,出口市场数量逐年增加,在欧盟、美国、东盟、日本和英国等重点市场的出口数据及其在该市场的玩具进口总额中所占份额持续走高,充分说明福建省玩具产业近年来在寻求发展和寻求突破中取得了较好的成效。     

美国的外来生物入侵现状和防控策略

在美国历史上,据估计已经有近5万种外来入侵物种（非本土）传入美国。外来入侵生物对美国的经济和环境造成的损失高达1200亿美元。针对外来生物入侵的严峻形势及其重大经济损失,自1999年起,美国相继颁布了第13112号行政令、《国家入侵物种管理规划》和《公共健康安全和生物恐怖预警法案》等,建立了国家外来生物入侵防控战略体系。本文综述了美国的外来生物入侵现状及其国家防控策略,     

Does Alibaba's Magic Work Outside China?

Alibaba was an established e‐commerce giant in the Chinese online retail industry. In 2014, it recorded the world's largest initial public offering (IPO), raising a total of $25 billion. Alibaba's groundbreaking IPO and continuous growth in China had raised speculation on its imminent and potential expansions into other countries including the United States. On the other hand, Amazon and eBay had been leaders in the e‐commerce industry of the United States, arguably the world. This case seeks to weigh the potential success of Alibaba should it choose to expand outside its home country, China, including the United States. This case also helps understand how the Chinese business environment influenced the success of Alibaba, relative to other countries. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

The Global Market for Power Tools

The global demand for power tools rose from $19.0 billion in 1999 to $22.8 billion by 2004 and is expected to increase to $29.2 billion in 2009. The annual rate of growth was 3.7 percent during 1999-2004; the projected rate during 2004-2009 is 5.0 percent. This reflects accelerating growth in developing regions, with the most promising opportunities occurring in Latin America, Africa/Mid-East, and Asia-Pacific. Electric tools (plug-in and cordless) dominate world demand, comprising three-fourth of shipments in 2004. Commercial users accounted for 70 percent and households for 30 percent of total sales, a ratio that should prevail during the coming years. North America accounted for 40 percent of total demand but for only 30 percent of production, as U.S. firms shifted operations to countries with lower wages. While hundreds of companies offer power tools, only a few firms hold significant market share. The leaders are Black and Decker (United States), Bosch (Germany), TechTronic (Hong- Kong), Makita (Japan), and Hitachi (Japan); together they accounted for 37 percent of global sales in 2004. JEL Classification L640     

Retailer–manufacturer responsibility in the marketing of firearms: exploring the concept of negligent distribution

One of the most divisive, controversial issues confronting Americans today is the regulation of firearms. Statistics pertaining to firearm-related injuries and death in the United States are staggering; approximately 32,000 Americans die annually from gunshot wounds, the vast majority of which can be attributed to handguns. Estimates of the costs of gun-related violence in the United States run as high as $100 billion/year. Not surprisingly, the firearms death rate in the United States is among the highest in the world, and clearly the highest among industrialized nations. To what extent, if any, do manufacturers and retailers share responsibility for harm caused by firearms? Manufacturer/retailer responsibility for firearm-related injuries may be tested under any one or more of a number of legal theories: products liability, public nuisance, and negligence. Of particular interest to marketers and retailers is the assertion that responsibility can be traced to negligent distribution practices. Although negligent distribution has been alleged in a number of key cases, the concept remains ambiguous. What does seem clear is that legal responsibility for injuries and death attributable to handguns has expanded, and negligence in marketing and distribution practices will become a paramount issue shaping the future direction of the firearms industry worldwide.     

The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) and export diversification

This paper explores the effect of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) on export diversification in Sub-Saharan Africa. The existing empirical studies suggest that AGOA has had a positive effect on the overall volume of trade between Sub-Saharan Africa and the United States. However, the economic development literature emphasizes the importance of export diversification for developing countries; therefore, it is important to understand the effects of AGOA on the extensive margin of trade (i.e. the number of distinct products a country exports). Our empirical results suggest that AGOA does contribute to export diversification, specifically through its apparel provision. Countries that are eligible for the AGOA apparel provision export not only more apparel products, but also more non-apparel products to the USA. Thus, AGOA contributes to export diversification at the extensive margin of trade with the USA.     

A Cross Cultural Analysis of the Geographical Knowledge of U.S., Irish,Israeli, Mexican,and South Korean Business School Students

ABSTRACT

Geographical knowledge about foreign countries is considered to be a significant factor related to the successful marketing of goods and services in international markets-a not insignificant conclusion by experts given the sizable trade deficits run up by the United States in 2000 ($365 billion), 2001 ($346 billion), and 2002 ($435 billion).

Unfortunately, previous research has concluded that U.S. business school students-tomorrow's executives who will make decisions that will impact their firms' international operations-have inadequate levels of international geographical knowledge.

This article compares the geographical knowledge of U.S. business school students to that of business school students in four countries: Ireland, Israel, Mexico, and South Korea. The sub-par performance exhibited by the U.S. students and the impact of six independent variables on global geographical knowledge are used to develop a number of pedagogical conclusions designed to enhance the international geographical knowledge of U.S. business school students and students in foreign business schools and overcome the antipathy toward this subject matter that apparently exists within business schools and their various external constituencies.