Export diversification,composition, and economic growth: Evidence from cross-country analysis

We investigate the export-growth relationship at disaggregate levels – disaggregation both at the country level and at the level of exports – focusing on the diversification and the composition of exports of countries. In a sample of 65 countries for the period 1965–2005 the dynamic panel estimation reveals that both diversification and composition of exports are important determinants of economic growth after controlling for the impacts of other variables like lagged income, investment, and infrastructure. There is a critical level of export concentration beyond which increasing export specialization leads to higher growth. Below this critical level, diversification of exports matters for gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Growth of high technology exports also contributes tothe output growth; the relationship becomes stronger for countries that have share of manufacturing exports in their total exports greater than the world average. These results are robust even when the dataset isclassified in four sub-panels based on the export-economic growth relationship.     

Export diversification trends: Some comparisons for Latin America

The present paper is an attempt to establish some stylized facts about the process of export diversification and structural change in exports for six key Latin American economies: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Venezuela. There has been a long-run trend toward export diversification in the region which has persisted through both inward- and outward-looking policy experiments, and over a variety of macroeconomic conditions. Structural change in exports accelerated during the debt crisis episode of the early 1980s, and more rapid structural change may be associated with policy reform. Our results suggest that important sources of economic risk in Latin America may be declining in the long run, and that economic risk is less sensitive to political risk than is often assumed. 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Entrepreneurial Climate and U.S. State Foreign Trade Offices as Predictors of Export Success

American state governments sponsor numerous foreign trade offices (FTOs) throughout the world. Although these offices constitute one of the most expensive export promotion activities, almost no research examining their effectiveness has been undertaken. Based on data from 114 state-sponsored FTOs, we hypothesize and find a positive relationship between expenditures for trade offices and exports. In addition, findings suggest that state export levels are conditioned by an interaction between FTO expenditures and variations in state entrepreneurial climate. Implications of these findings for managers and policy-makers are explored.     

江苏省出口贸易结构变迁对就业的影响效应研究

本文首先采用苏振东等提出的方法构造出江苏省出口贸易结构指数,分析其变动情况,并在此基础上运用协整模型分析了江苏省出口贸易结构变迁对就业增长的影响。分析结果显示：从出口总量层面来看,出口总额增长拉动就业,而高附加值商品出口减少就业,低附加值产品出口的就业效应为正,但低附加值产品出口所带来的就业正效应能够抵消高附加值产品出口的就业负效应。最后文章提出了进一步扩大出口贸易拉动就业增长的对策建议。     

Export Structure Optimized

The rapid growth of China＇s trade surplus is a reflection of its industrial advancement and growing competitiveness.     

Export Concerns of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises in Poland

This is an empirical investigation of export concerns of managers in small and medium-sized enterprises in Poland. Chisquare analysis is used to identify the major determinants of export orientation. The data refer to a random sample of 90 enterprises which engaged in exports in 1991 and 1992. It is shown that major determinants of export orientation among the Polish firms are foreign ownership, eiport arrangements based on joint-ventures with foreign partners and aualitv of exported products. Although there is no clear& formula fbr deGelopiig a su&essful export program, the study suggests a number of specific improvements in marketing strategy, government support and environmental characteristics which should help to increase exports by small and medium-sized firms in Poland. Findings of this study are systematically compared with the results of previous explorations into the determinants of export performance.     

Export product range and economic growth in the EU countries

We analyse the number of different HS8 products in the EU countries’ exports in 1995–2015. We review what share, or coverage, of the total possible number of these products the countries have exported each year. The EU15 countries have typically witnessed a slow rise in this coverage rate, that is, a widening of their extensive margins. The exception is Finland where the share has declined considerably. On the other hand, Ireland, Greece, Portugal and the new member countries have seen a dramatic increase in their export product coverage. We analyse how the development in the coverage rate and, as a comparison, the diversification of exports as measured by the Herfindahl–Hirschman index are associated with GDP per capita growth. We find that changes in the former measure are positively associated with economic growth after we have controlled for GDP per capita catching‐up as well as investment and export activity. We also find that smaller EU economies do not specialise more than large ones in their exports as could perhaps be assumed.     

优化中国出口商品结构的对策分析

在经济全球化日益加剧的今天,走向国际市场,参与国际分工是每个国家的必然选择。作为一个发展中的大国,中国也在以各种方式积极参加国际竞争。近年来,中国出口规模不断扩大,出口依存度显著提高,同时出口商品结构也迅速得以改善。但是,中国出口商品结构变化中仍存在诸多矛盾和问题,这在一定程度上影响了中国出口的增长和出口产品国际竞争力的提高。因此,政府和企业都必须采取一定的措施来调整出口商品结构。     

An Empirical Examination of Export Variety: Regional Heterogeneity within a Nation

Recognising that similar goods are produced in different subregions within a country, we offer new evidence of variety expansion in a nation’s exports. We divide Japanese national exports into 41 prefectural subregions with over 7,000 product categories and construct subregional export margins for the years between 1988 and 2005. First, we find strong evidence of regional heterogeneity in terms of export product coverage, and the export variety of most regions expands in our sample period. Second, we find that the extensive margin accounts for over 60 per cent of the increase in exports of larger subregions, similar to the findings in the international cross‐country study. These findings imply that accounting for export variety in terms of new exports from subregions within a country strengthens the contribution of extensive margin in the growth of exports.     

出口退税政策的节能减排效应研究

调整出口退税已成为遏制高能耗、高排放产品出口的重要措施,研究首先从理论上分析了出口退税的节能减排效应,提出下调出口退税率,将降低单位产值能耗成本的假设,接下来又通过我国钢铁行业出口能源强度与出口退税率的协整分析来实证验证,结果表明:出口额能耗与出口退税率间存在长期协整关系,且出口退税率是出口额能耗变化的格兰杰原因;出口退税率调整对出口额能耗影响的长期弹性为0.47,短期弹性为0.07,即出口退税率的变化对出口额能耗的影响在短期内不明显,但具有长期深远的影响;变结构协整分析还表明,差别退税政策下,当退税率下调时,出口退税率变化对出口额能耗的影响更大。     

国际贸易出口限制的分析研究

目前许多发展中国家在国际贸易中纷纷采取限制出口的措施。被限制出口的产品主要是资源性产品,由于金属类矿物产品的重要地位,限制金属类矿物产品出口受到广泛关注。各国使用出口限制有自己的理由,出口限制对经济和贸易有一定的影响,于是在多边贸易体制中存在着对出口限制的制约,这也成为解决因出口限制引发贸易摩擦的依据,我国如何利用好国际贸易规则已成为一个急迫解决的问题。     

中国进出口贸易对经济增长方式转变的影响分析

文章基于中国1980-2010年GDP和进出口的相关数据对中国进出口贸易和经济运行的轨迹进行分析,测算了外贸依存度、贡献率和拉动度三个指标。运用协整理论和格兰杰因果关系检验方法对中国进出口贸易与经济增长的关系进行实证分析。结果表明中国经济增长与出口之间是正相关的关系,出口增长对经济增长具有明显的促进作用:出口每增长1%,中国GDP将增长约0.714%;同时,经济增长与进口之间也是正相关的关系,弹性为0.0286,进口每增长1%,中国GDP将增长约0.0286%。因此,可以看出中国进出口贸易的增长都促进经济的增长。     

Export Product Composition Indexes in Developing Countries: The Case of Peru, 1993–2004

Liberal structural reforms associated to changes in the export product composition may affect economic growth, and at the same time, may yield biases in the official standard trade index numbers from developing countries and error measures in the real rate of economic and exports growth. This paper proposes a set of index numbers which incorporates the export product composition in a standard export index in such a way that changes in the current export value can be decomposed into: price changes; quantity changes, and product composition changes. In the applications of those indexes for the Peruvian case, it is found that the estimated overvaluations in the official annual average rate of growth of the real exports value and the GDP, were, respectively 3% and 0.6%, for the period 1993–2004.     

出口成本、信贷约束与企业出口

出口固定成本的存在将导致企业生产率的“自我选择”效应。如果存在出口信贷约束,信贷获取能力强的企业出口表现将优于信贷获取能力差的企业。本文利用世界银行调查数据,实证发现信贷约束限制企业出口,银行营运资金贷款和固定投资贷款对企业出口的影响存在非对称性。营运资金贷款对扩大出口集约边际和扩展边际的作用都很明显,而固定投资贷款仅仅扩大出口扩展边际。此外,对于财务脆弱的企业,银行信贷的出口促进作用更加显著。     

Microdynamics of Turkey's Export Boom in the 2000s

This paper examines the microdynamics behind the dramatic export boom experienced by Turkey during the 2000s. Using disaggregated exporter‐level customs data covering the universe of export transactions for Turkey during the period 2002–11, we characterise firm‐level dynamics in the export sector and we decompose export growth at the aggregate, sectoral and destination market levels to identify the role of firm turnover, destination turnover and product turnover. We show that year‐to‐year aggregate export growth is dominated by growth in continuous exporters, and for these, growth is dominated by exports to their continued destinations and of their continued products. However, the observed high degree of churning across firms, destinations and products accounts for a substantial part of Turkey's export growth over longer periods. The patterns of microdynamics of export growth are verified across sectors and across groups of destination markets with some exceptions regarding exports to new emerging markets where net exporter entry plays a more critical role for export growth over longer periods.     

Export credit insurance-a comparison

Incessant growth of world trade and of overseas investments, and the shirts In their structure, are reflected In changes affecting International trade relations. The present article discusses the rising political and economic risks to which exports are exposed, and the consequent growth of demand for insuring export credits and direct Investments.     

Export Growth and Trade Policy in Ghana in the Twentieth Century

Ghana's exports on a per capita basis failed to grow over the course of the twentieth century. The reasons for this outcome are examined in this paper. It is argued that the success which characterised the period before independence was due to the combination of an open trade policy and flexible factor markets. The reversal of such policies at the time of independence was the source of the subsequent decline. While the terms of trade for Ghana's exports have fluctuated substantially there has been little change in their level over the century. Economic failure since independence has been due to domestic policies limiting export growth. The reforms of the post 1983 period have succeeded in preventing further decline; they have failed to provide a policy environment in which rapid growth of exports can occur. The nature of this policy failure is discussed.     

Determinants of Export Performance in East and Southeast Asia

This paper examines the determinants of exports in eight East and Southeast Asian economies, with an emphasis on the increasing importance of parts and components in total exports. To see whether exports in parts and components are ‘special’ and to allow comparisons, export equations are estimated for three different export categories: total merchandise exports, manufacturing exports and exports of machinery and transport equipment (SITC 7). The analysis is based on data for 1993–2008, a period over which parts and components trade burgeoned. The estimations indicate that the growing importance in the export composition of parts and components within vertically integrated cross‐border production processes has tended to weaken the nexus of real exchange rate and export performance. World demand and supply‐side factors, including foreign direct investment, tend to become more crucial in determining export performance.     

Export Credit Guarantees and Export Performance: An Empirical Analysis for Germany

Recent literature finds that exporters are particularly vulnerable to financial market frictions. As a consequence, exports may be lower than their efficient levels. For this reason, many countries support exporters by underwriting export credit guarantees. The empirical evidence on the effects of those policies is, however, very limited. In this paper, we use sectoral data on export credit guarantees issued by the German government. We investigate whether those guarantees indeed do increase exports and whether they remedy the export‐restricting effect of credit market imperfections both on the sectoral and on the export‐market levels. Exploiting the sectoral structure of a rich three‐way panel data set of German exports, we control for unobserved heterogeneity on the country‐year, sector‐year and country‐sector dimensions. We document a robust export‐increasing effect of guarantees. There is some evidence that the effect is larger for export markets with poor financial institutions and in sectors that rely more on external finance.     

Measuring the Impact of China's Export Growth on its Asian Neighbours

The rise of China as an economic power has led to concern in many Asian counties that this development poses a threat to their ability to export. The empirical support for this remains inconsistent, however. One explanation for these inconsistencies includes biases that follow from the use of a gravity model specified in an a‐theoretical manner. We study the effect of the Chinese exports growth using the empirical framework outlined by Baldwin and Taglioni (2006). We report evidence of a positive relationship between Chinese and its Asian neighbours’ exports, with countries with greater endowments of human capital benefiting most from this growth.