基于出游动机的游客目的地选择的离散选择模型研究

旅游目的地选择是游客选择行为研究中研究较为广泛的领域之一.现有文献利用了社会、经济、地理等诸多模型和理论对目的地选择进行了研究和探讨.基于随机效用最大化的离散选择模型在游客目的地选择研究中有广泛的应用,但是缺乏属性交互项对于目的地选择的抑制或者激励作用的研究.本文利用2002年江苏省国内游客抽样调查原始资料数据这一选择完成式类型的数据构建了两个二项Logistic回归模型,讨论了寻求闲适安静环境、探亲访友、公务出游3种出游动机对于出游距离以及旅行花费的影响.研究发现寻求闲适安静环境出游动机的游客倾向于选择远距离的目的地,且这类游客也愿意增加旅行花费;出于探亲访友这一动机出游的游客则更愿意选择靠近自己居所的旅游目的地,且不倾向于增加自身的旅行花费;公务出游的游客倾向于选择远距离目的地,也倾向于增加他们的旅行花费.     

Using a Choice Experiment (CE) to Value the Attributes of Cruise Tourism

Recently, cruise tourism has drawn public interest in the Republic of Korea. In this study, we attempt to analyze people’s preferences regarding the attributes of cruise tourism, such as duration, accommodation, services, and cost. Thus, we applied a choice experiment (CE) to measure the marginal willingness to pay (MWTP) for each attribute. The results show that the coefficients of the attributes of onboard activities are positive and statistically significant. MWTPs for increasing the cabin level from an inside to an ocean view and for increasing the level of onboard services from 4-star to 6-star are South Korean Won (KRW) 1,095,760 (USD 954.8) and KRW 671,264 (USD 584.9) respectively. Comparison of all the MWTP estimates indicates that people prefer onboard activities rather than visiting foreign ports of call above all other attributes. This study is expected to provide tourism managers with useful information for designing cruise tourism products that meet travelers’ needs.     

A Holistic Approach to Understanding the Use of Travel Guidebooks: Pre-, During,and Post-Trip Behavior

This study proposed a holistic approach to understanding the usage of travel guidebooks. Guidebooks were revealed to outperform other travel information sources in the stages of “during” and “post-travel” but lost their competitiveness in the pre-trip planning to the Internet, especially on the search for information on destination and accommodation. A factor analysis on an 18-item instrument concluded that travelers possess six underlying need dimensions when using guidebooks: reflective, security, confirming, destination, itinerary, and functional needs. Therefore, recommendations were provided for practitioners to reconsider the positioning of travel guidebooks when formulating product development and marketing strategies.     

乡村旅游偏好差异测量研究:基于离散选择模型

消费者偏好分析是进行产品开发、市场营销的基础,本文运用离散选择模型中的Multinomial logit(MNL)模型,分析旅游消费者在产品选择过程中,其个人特征及行为特征对某类旅游产品偏好的影响。通过大连乡村旅游消费者产品选择行为的实证研究,表明乡村旅游消费者对不同类别产品的偏好,会随着消费者个人特征和行为特征的不同而发生变化。MNL模型能较为合理地解释乡村旅游者个人特征和行为特征与乡村旅游产品选择偏好之间的关系。     

文化距离对旅游目的地选择的影响--以日本和中国大陆出境游为例

在全球化和出境旅游日益发展的大背景下,了解国家文化和文化差异对出境旅游的影响越来越重要。文章以日本和中国出境旅游市场为案例,定量研究客源国与目的地国家之间的文化差异对旅游者出境旅游目的地选择的影响。文章数据来源于对日本和中国城市居民的一手数据,包括受访者的过往出境目的地选择和计划前往目的地选择情况。条件Logit模型的估计结果显示,日本居民在过往目的地和计划前往目的地的选择上都显著偏好总体与日本文化差异大的国家。具体而言,他们偏好在“权力距离”和“不确定性避免”维度差异较小,而在“集体主义“”性别气质”和“长远考虑”维度差异较大的目的地。相比而言,中国大陆居民在出境目的地选择上受文化距离的影响较少。     

Preferences and Willingness to Pay for Green Hotel Attributes in Tourist Choice Behavior: The Case of Taiwan

Although many companies in the hotel industry aim to pursue more sustainable and socially responsible practices, the present literature shows mixed results with regard to tourist reactions to such moves, especially for the service quality perception impacted by implemented green practices and the willingness to pay more for such actions. Unlike previous research examining tourists’ preferences for separate green hotel attributes, this study identifies the determinants of tourists’ choice of green hotel attributes. Additionally, the study measures the willingness to pay (WTP) for such services, in the context of the Taiwanese market, using the stated preference of combined green hotel attribute scenarios. A multinomial logit (MNL) model is employed to estimate the relative influence of behavioral and facility attributes on choice behavior. Furthermore, the study examines determinants influencing respondents’ choice of green hotel attributes. A latent variable class model (LVCM) approach is applied in the estimation of the unobserved heterogeneity, and a total of 390 valid respondents were used in the analysis. The empirical MNL results indicate that while tourists prefer luxury rooms and the provision of personal toiletries, they are also willing to accept reduced service quality. Additionally, sex, income, and age have significant influences on tourist choice behavior. The results of the LVCM model demonstrate that respondents with high levels of the green consumption trait are more likely to choose hotels that have a greater number of environmentally friendly attributes. The implicit amount that tourists are willing to pay for room quality is around US$13, for the provision of personal toiletries is about US$22, and for service quality is US$12, but they also require a discount of approximately US$11 in order to accept the common practices of green hotels. This study is useful in providing the hotel industry and government with quantitative information that can be used to develop and implement better green hotel policies.     

Economics of tourism investment in data scarce countries

Ex-ante economic impact analyses are required to demonstrate the development impact and viability of multilateral loans. These assessments are often performed under tight timelines, in data scarce environments and with limited opportunity for primary data collection. This paper develops a framework for assessing tourism interventions under these challenging conditions and evaluates a US$15 million tourism investment in Belize. This paper contributes to the literature by: (i) developing a generalizable approach to building economy-wide models in data scarce environments; (ii) generating realistic expectations of agent responses with quasi-contingent valuation and auto-regressive integrated moving average methods. Applying the first economy-wide model for Belize, results show that the investment would stimulate GDP by 3% and reduce unemployment from 12% to 10% by 2040.     

The moderating role of context in the effects of choice attributes on hotel choice: A discrete choice experiment

This study used discrete choice modeling to identify the moderating role of context in the effects of cognitive, affective, and sensory attributes on hotel choice. To evaluate a hotel consumer's choice for attributes in a different choice context (leisure vs. business), a stated preference experiment based on D-optimal design was conducted using both a multinomial logit (MNL) model and a random parameter logit (RPL) model. The results show that while leisure travelers' choices for family vacation trips were more influenced by price and overall atmosphere than were business travelers', business travelers put an emphasis on room quality and comfort when on a business trip alone. The study demonstrates the trade-offs made by leisure and business travelers when choosing a hotel through discrete choice modeling. The findings provide hotel managers with important insights and implications in terms of target segmentation, product development, and marketing communication strategy.     

中国城市“一日游“分析模型构建及其实证研究

我国大多数居民的收入水平决定了其旅游行为应当以“一日游“为主要旅游形式,而传统的旅游方法对此却难以进行准确回答.因为有关涉及“一日游“主要指标信息的采集、提取和估计长期成为我国旅游统计中的重要难题之一.本文以国家旅游局和国家统计局多年积累的重要的抽样调查统计资料和报表统计资料为基准,根据其中的旅游统计指标之间的逻辑关系建立了试图比较准确地反映我国城市“一日游“主要统计指标信息的数学模型,并以旅游城市厦门为例进行了实证研究.     

旅行社生存空间的典型产业组织模式研究——以宜昌大三峡、楚韵、阳光旅行社为例

本文运用现代企业组织理论对我国旅游产业相对发达地区①典型的旅行社产业组织模式进行了深入分析.文章认为面对有限的生存空间,旅行社通过产业组织模式创新来实现规模经济和范围经济有其内在的形成机理.旅行社产业组织模式的复杂性也说明它面临着一个不断动态调整的过程.     

A New Paradigm in Guiding: The Madrich as a Role Model

The “role model” guides encountered in the counselors of Israel Experience youth study tours, contrast traditional concepts of pathfinder and mentor. This model type is proposed as more appropriate for tours providing informal education and quest for identity. Not drawing authority from official recognition but from a personal guide–tourist relationship, madrichs rated characteristics essential to guides leading these trips. A multi-dimensional analysis uncovered the structure of these characteristics to create a structure of an “excellent” Israel Experience madrich. This structural analysis confirms an earlier typology and helps to uncover another kind of approach towards youth guiding.