Impacts of agricultural price support policy on price variability and welfare: Evidence from China's soybean market

China is a predominant soybean importer; thus, its domestic soybean policies have a large impact on world soybean market dynamics. We develop the first aggregate structural econometric model of China's soybean market and link it to the rest of the world (ROW), which allows us to analyze the impacts of China's soybean price support policy that ran from 2008 to 2013. We investigate the impacts of China's policy on the variability of their domestic and world soybean prices, and adopt a Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate the effects on distributional and aggregate welfare. Our results indicate: (a) after China's soybean price support policy, price transmission elasticity decreases, China's domestic price variability decreases, and world price variability increases; (b) China's producer surplus increases, consumer surplus decreases and the net welfare change in their domestic market is negative; and (c) although soybean exporting countries in the ROW experience significant welfare gains, the world net welfare change is negative.     

The influence of land-use change paradigm on Romania’s agro-food trade competitiveness—An overview

The current transformations of the Romanian agricultural sector have imposed new paradigms in using the land resources. The objective of this study is to assess Romanian agro-food products competitiveness on world market, in terms of land use changing paradigms. The research question is whether the land is cultivated with crops which are competitive on world market. For assessing agro-food competitiveness, Balassa index is calculated. The findings show relative performance for barley, maize, triticale, wheat, poultry meat, oilseeds, and tobacco. But the areas cultivated with barley and wheat decreased in the period under analysis, although these products have highest relative performance of exports. The paper also proposes structural changes of land use needed for encouraging those crops and products which have high revealed comparative advantages on world markets.     

Linking of U.S. monetary policy and exchange rates to world soybean markets

The linkage between macroeconomic policies and agricultural commodity trade has become an important research issue of agricultural economists. This paper investigates the macroeconomic linkage of soybean trade competition between the exporting countries of the United States, Brazil, and Argentina in the EC-12 and Japan import markets. It is argued that U.S. monetary growth may have important impacts on the competitive position of U.S. soybean exports through exchange rates. Two relationships are investigated: (a) the effects of U.S. monetary growth on the agricultural trade weighted exchange rates, and (b) the responsiveness of agricultural commodity prices and U.S. exports to exchange rate movements. Results indicate that a weak dollar increases imports of soybeans and soymeal significantly which serves to increase the equilibrium world price and increase both U.S. and Brazil/Argentina exports in the long run. However, during periods of more expansionary U.S. monetary policy there is little evidence of significant increases in market share position for U.S. soybeans and soymeal in world markets.     

防止玉米成为“第二个大豆”的战略研究——从产业之囿到破局之策

目的 2020年以来，中国玉米市场发生深刻变化，呈现进口首次突破配额、进口市场更加集中、进口规模增长间隔短和价格创记录4个特点；从长期看，中国玉米供应偏紧、价格倒挂，以及进口量增加难以逆转，玉米正在呈现大豆的苗头性迹象。文章旨在宏观研判玉米发展成为“第二个大豆”的可能性，并从战略布局予以防止。方法 从多方面对比了中国玉米产业和大豆产业特征的异同，为回答玉米是否会成为“第二个大豆”这一问题提供了多角度证据。结果 玉米产业形势相对乐观，不会成为“第二个大豆”，但玉米产业自身的发展特性和中国玉米产业现存的困境不容忽视。结论 科学把控，系统谋划，综合施策，从种植结构调整、良种攻关、全程机械化、优势玉米带建设、烘干设施、“走出去”六大工程着手，解决玉米产业技术装备相对落后、竞争力弱、需求增速快等难题，从战略上防止玉米成为第二个大豆。     

The role of the U.S. exchange-rate equity market volatility on agricultural exports and forecasts

This article estimates the U.S. state-level soybean export forecast until December 2024 using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. We utilize the newly developed exchange-rate equity market volatility (EMV-EX) to improve model fit and the Dirichlet process mixture model (DPMM) to control for unobserved heterogeneity. Using monthly data from January 2004 to December 2020, the study shows that soybean exports for states without ports are underestimated at the expense of states with ports. The EMV-EX has a positive effect on soybean exports. The forecasts reveal no expected changes in the trends for soybean exports until December 2024. This study's results are useful to make and to implement more informed policy decisions for risk-mitigating strategies such as the market-facilitation program.     

The Elusive Price Premium for Ecolabelled Products: Evidence from Seafood in the UK Market

Ecolabelling is an increasingly important tool used in the promotion of sustainable forestry and fishery products around the world. Whether the consumer is actually paying a price premium for ecolabelled products is of fundamental importance as it indicates a return on the investment of sustainable practices, providing an incentive for producers to undertake such practices. This article seeks to address the question of whether or not an actual premium is being paid by consumers for ecolabelled seafood by conducting a hedonic analysis of Marine Stewardship Council (MSC)‐certified frozen processed Alaska pollock products in the London metropolitan area in the UK market using scanner data. Regression results show a statistically significant premium of 14.2%. This implies the presence of market differentiation for sustainable seafood and the potential of the MSC’s fisheries certification programme to generate market incentives for sustainable fisheries practices.     

Market Power and World Price: The Role of Asian Rice Exporters

An attempt has been made in this study to assess the market power of major Asian exporters in world rice market using standard oligopoly models. Quantity has been used as the strategic variable based on previous literature. Structural and reduced form approaches have been used. Results indicate that the major Asian rice exporters like Thailand, China, and India face a downward sloping demand curve whereas the United States does not appear to possess market power. However, the results are inconclusive about the precise market structure. The results, in the backdrop of the history of world rice markets, indicate a need for Asian exporters to rely more on trade than on domestic stocks in order to reduce the thinness of world rice market.     

Do Agricultural Commodity Prices Respond to Bans against Bioengineered Crops?

Bans against bioengineered food ingredients by major food companies have been broadly reported and have been often taken to signal demand shifts away from commodities in favor of identity-preserved non-bioengineered crops. Yet, the impacts of such bans have not been quantified and, indeed, the market size for non-bioengineered crops remains unknown. We tested whether either the Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures prices (commodity) or the Tokyo Grain Exchange non-GMO soybean futures prices (identity preserved market) responded to firm bans of bioengineered food ingredients. Neither the Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures prices nor the Tokyo Grain Exchange non-GMO soybean futures prices respond to bans.     

Efficiency tests of agricultural commodity futures markets in China

The efficiency of the Chinese wheat and soybean futures markets is studied. Formal statistical tests were conducted based on Johansen's cointegration approach for three different cash markets and six different futures forecasting horizons ranging from 1 week to 4 months. The results suggest a long-term equilibrium relationship between the futures price and cash price for soybeans and weak short-term efficiency in the soybean futures market. The futures market for wheat is inefficient, which may be caused by over-speculation and government intervention.     

中国林化产品贸易条件及世界林化产品地区结构分析

利用净贸易条件指数和收入贸易条件指数从整体和分类2个层面对中国主要林化产品1992～2005年贸易条件进行分析,对2002～2005年世界主要林化产品地区结构进行分析。结果表明:中国主要林化产品贸易条件总体上在绝大多数年份得到改善,但单一产品的情况各不相同;中国是世界松香、活性碳、松节油和樟脑出口第一大国,在一定程度上左右国际市场。     

价格支持、政策调整及粮食市场波动

目的 为了估计价格支持政策对不同粮食品种期现货价格波动的直接影响,实证分析和比较了政策及其调整对粮食期现货价格波动实施效果的影响,为深化粮食价格形成机制改革提供一定的理论参考和实证支撑。方法 文章利用稻谷、小麦、玉米和大豆的现货与期货价格日数据,将政策以虚拟变量的形式引入GARCH模型实证分析最低收购价政策、临时收储政策及其调整对平抑粮食期现货市场波动的作用。结果 价格支持政策对粮食价格波动产生了显著影响,最低收购价政策能够明显降低稻谷和小麦现货市场的波动程度,但对期货市场波动的作用则相反;玉米和大豆临时收储政策的取消导致现货市场波动性提高,而对期货市场波动的影响存在差异。结论 价格支持政策具有降低价格波动的作用效果,政策调控效果与实施品种的国内供求及市场形势、国内外市场的联系程度密切相关,政策的完善还需关注对期货市场波动的影响。     

An Analysis of Removal of Agricultural Trade Barriers between the United States and Canada with Emphasis on the Southeast

A four-region, 23-commodity small world agricultural trade liberalization model within the SWOPSIM framework is used to measure the impact of tariff removal between the United States and Canada. The tariffs are simply defined as negative import subsidy equivalents in the model and are then removed from the trade prices. The model recalculates domestic supply and demand levels in all regions, rebalancing world trade, production, consumption and prices. In summary, the impacts of the Canada-U.S. Trade Agreement on selected commodity groups are significant. Canadian imports of beef and veal, poultry meat, soybean oil and fresh strawberries increase. Furthermore, the results indicate larger trade flows for selected products and declines in producer and consumer prices in Canada, U.S. and Southeast regions. Since the U.S. share of Canadian agricultural imports averaged 60% in the 1980s, the impact of trade liberalization will be greater in Canada in selected commodities than in the U. S. or the southeastern region, and Canadian dependence on the U.S. market will be increasing in the future. The tariff phaseout, together with a reduction in nontariff barriers and harmonizing of domestic agricultural policies, will create more export opportunities in selected commodities for both the United States and Canada, and will create the world's largest free trade market.     

Impact of cultured shrimp industry on wild shrimp fisheries: analysis of price determination mechanisms and market dynamics

Cultured shrimp production has been growing dramatically on the world market over the last 15 years and some of the farm‐raised species are now considered as price‐indicators on the main market places. One may, therefore, expect the price of theses cultured shrimp to have an impact on the price formation of other species and especially on wild shrimp with which they compete. In this paper, the authors address this question in the case of the wild shrimp Penaeus subtilis exploited by the French Guyana fishery (South America) and competing on the French market with the cultured Thai shrimp ‘Back Tiger’. A series of econometric tests issued from the co‐integration theory is performed between the price series of the two products. These tests indicate that the two series are co‐integrated and that the black tiger market acts as a market leader for the French Guyana shrimp product. The authors then discuss the reasons of the current predominance of farm‐raised shrimp on wild‐caught product (and in particular the French Guyana shrimp) and identify the constraints that the French market demand induces on both producers and importers. In the light of this analysis, a commercial strategy that would mitigate the impact of the Thai shrimp on the French Guyana product is suggested.     

The right place to grow rice for the Japanese market: comparative analysis of greenhouse gas emissions of rice cultivation in Japan and the United States

One consequence of increasing agricultural trade is a shift of geographic location of agricultural activity to more economically productive countries. Whether or not the economic efficiency translates to environmental efficiency for agricultural goods is an open question. To examine environmental implications of shifting agricultural location, we analysed the life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of rice production in Japan and the US for the Japanese market in a comparative manner. This paper presents the life-cycle assessment of brown japonica rice. Our computation of GHG emissions of rice production in Japan and the US were 3.54 and 2.99?kgCO₂-eq kg-rice^?1, respectively. With respect to harvested area, the emissions were 18.4 in Japan and 27.8?tCO₂-eq ha^?1 in the US. For Japan to be environmentally competitive with the US production, fundamental restructuration of field size is necessary to increase yield. In conclusion, economic efficiency does not translate to environmental efficiency with the case of rice production. Importing rice is both economically and environmentally viable option for the Japanese market.     

豆渣在食品工业中的应用研究

豆渣是一种具富含营养价值、尚未得到充分开发利用的食品资源。综述了豆渣的营养价值及其在国内外食品行业的开发利用和研究现状,并阐述了豆渣在食品行业中的发展方向。     

International trade in a differentiated good: Trade elasticities in the world rice market

In many previous rice trade models, the commodity has been regarded as a homogeneous product. However, homogeneity is not an appropriate assumption, given the various types of rice that are traded and consumed. Parameters estimated from these models, therefore, do not reflect the real world market for rice and, hence, may mislead decision makers who use the results for policy evaluation purposes. This study uses an Armington approach to model the world rice trade as a differential good market and to derive trade elasticity parameters.     

Distinguishing between Equilibrium and Integration in Spatial Price Analysis

This article introduces a new spatial price analysis methodology based on maximum likelihood estimation of a mixture distribution model incorporating price, transfer cost, and trade flow data. This method permits differentiation between market integration and competitive market equilibrium and derivation of intuitive measures of intermarket tradability, competitive market equilibrium, perfect integration, segmented equilibrium, and segmented disequilibrium. One can also use these estimates to derive semiparametric measures of time-varying regime probabilities to track changing market conditions. An application to trade in soybean meal among Pacific Rim economies demonstrates the usefulness of the method.     

Access to a Telephone and Factor Market Participation of Rural Households in Bangladesh

This paper assesses the impact of access to a telephone on rural households’ factor market opportunities. It answers two questions. First, does the use of a telephone have any impact on rural households’ factor market participation? Second, correcting for market participation, does the use of a telephone have any impact on the type of factor market participation? For the first question, the paper uses a bivariate probit to correct for omitted variable bias and for the second question, the paper uses a two‐stage probit. The empirical findings suggest that access to a telephone has a significant positive impact on factor market participation. The difference in market participation between telephone users and non‐users is around 14%. However, once a household participates in the market, the use of a telephone does not have any impact on specific factor market participation.     

我国大豆产业发展战略规划研究

[目的]从产业定位、发展方向和发展模式等3个层面和研发、种植、加工、消费等4个领域提出我国大豆产业发展战略规划思路和具体内容,为政府制定全面、系统的大豆产业支持政策提供参考。[方法]运用统计分析和数据对比的定量研究方法,选取美国农业部和我国农业统计年鉴1996年以来的大豆产业相关数据,分析我国大豆产业在国内市场开放和进口转基因大豆双重冲击下逐步沦陷的原因;运用逻辑推理和归纳演义的定性研究方法,针对目前我国大豆产业发展存在的问题,结合我国"十三五"规划提出的粮食安全战略及《全国种植业结构调整规划(2016-2020年)》对大豆种植业支持政策,提出我国大豆产业发展战略规划。[结果]大豆产业是横跨农业、工业、服务业三次产业,同时具有经济属性、政治属性、社会属性的关系国计民生的重要产业,这些产业特点要求政府在考虑经济利益的同时,兼顾政治利益、社会利益和长远利益,制定能够整合大豆产业价值链中各环节资源和协调各方利益关系的全局性战略规划,准确进行产业定位,明确大豆产业未来发展方向,合理选择大豆产业发展模式。[结论]鉴于大豆产业对我国粮食安全、经济增长和社会稳定等具有重要的战略意义,首先,应将大豆产业定位为战略性资源类产业;其次,在大豆产业发展方向上,重点培育大豆优势品种,分区域种植不同品质的优质大豆,支持企业开发大豆精深加工产品,提高大豆精深加工技术水平,增强消费者对非转基因大豆价值认知;最后,在产业发展模式选择上,扶持有能力的粮农企业采取大豆全产业一体化经营模式和推行大豆产业循环经济发展模式。     

水产市场信息系统的设计与开发

本文根据水产行业的特点,针对水产品市场出现的问题,结合自身特色,提出水产市场信息系统的设计思路、系统结构、逻辑结构、以及系统的模块结构、并详细阐述了系统的功能及效果。地理信息系统的引入,增加了水产市场信息系统的可视性和交互功能。