基于乡村旅游的海南省休闲农庄竞争力评价

[目的]通过对基于乡村旅游的海南省休闲农庄竞争力进行评价研究,以期对海南省全域旅游和国际旅游岛建设以及休闲旅游的可持续发展提供参考。[方法]运用层次分析法构建海南省休闲农庄竞争力评价指标体系,以资源与环境竞争力、市场竞争力、经济系统竞争力和社会系统竞争力构成准则层,并通过模糊综合评价法计算最大隶属度,得出海南省休闲农庄竞争力综合评价值。[结果]海南省休闲农庄竞争力综合评价得分为88.79,处于二级水平,竞争力强。[结论]资源与环境在海南省休闲农庄竞争力中优势明显,且对全国市场具有重大的吸引力;独特的热带风光、较高空气质量指数以及经济特区、生态立省、国际旅游岛等政策优势是海南省休闲农业与乡村旅游健康发展的主要竞争力;海南省在乡村旅游转型升级中应重点关注差异化发展模式,把休闲农庄等乡村旅游发展作为国际旅游岛的重要组成部分,加大基础设施投入力度,重点强化和突出热带、慢生活、富氧等独具地理和文化特色的元素。     

冀南地区特色农业适度规模化调查及对策研究

特色农业是现代农业的一种重要形式,可很好的发挥区域资源优势,提升农产品市场竞争力,增加农民收入,促进区域经济发展。适度规模化发展是提高农业生产效益、增强市场竞争能力的重要途径,是转变农业发展方式的重要内容,对于提高农业组织化程度、有效防范市场风险具有重要作用。特色农业适度规模化,可以最大限度地促进地区农业的发展。文章通过对冀南地区特色农业适度规模化发展现状的调查,分析该地区发展特色农业的土地、劳动力、企业、合作社等基本条件,指出该地区适度规模化在土地流转、生产体系、资金等方面存在的受制因素,提出推进土地流转、发展新型优势产业、注重品牌建设、强化科技力量、强化信息服务系统建设、加强农业基础设施建设等6项促进特色农业适度规模化发展的相应对策。     

荷兰、以色列农业对贵州农业区域经济发展的借鉴

贵州农业总体滞后于全国的发展水平,除受整体的社会经济发展状况以及历史缘由等因素的影响外,主要还受制于自然资源和环境。而人多地少,农业资源贫乏的荷兰和以色列,农业发展条件受自然资源环境约束的程度更严重,该文通过农业生产结构、农业劳动生产率、土地生产率、劳动者等农业生产要素的资源配置及生产组织化程度等方面比荷兰、以色列的比较,总结借鉴发达国家发展农业的特色经验,思考贵州省农业区域经济的跨越式发展。     

Food insecurity,income inequality,and the changing comparative advantage in world agriculture

I would like to argue in this article that in the process of economic development in land‐poor countries in Asia, agriculture faces three distinctly different problems: food insecurity, sectoral income inequality, and the declining food self‐sufficiency associated with the declining comparative advantage in agriculture at the high‐income stage. Massive imports of food grains to Asia, if they occur, will aggravate the world food shortage, which will have significant implications for the poverty incidence in the world. I argue that in order to avoid such a tragedy, Asia should expand farm size to reduce labor cost by adopting large‐scale mechanization, sub‐Saharan Africa should realize a green revolution in grain production, and Latin America should further expand its grain production capacity.     

基于钻石模型的奶粉国际竞争力分析

随着经济社会发展,近年来我国乳品加工业取得较快发展,其中奶粉生产、消费均呈现出更快增长态势。但是,在奶粉贸易市场上,我国进口奶粉却逐渐扩大,出口奶粉处于低位。针对奶粉净进口量呈扩大趋势的热点问题,运用奶粉国际市场占率、贸易竞争指数及竞争优势指数进行测算,结果发现中国奶粉与新西兰、欧盟等世界主要奶业强国在国际竞争上存在较大的差距,且近年来竞争力有继续下降的趋势。新西兰在奶粉竞争力处于一家独大的优势,无论是国际市场占有率、贸易竞争指数及显示性竞争优势指数,均处于领先地位。法国、德国、澳大利亚等国在国际上还保有一定的竞争地位,但由于市场份额被新西兰等国挤占,近年来有逐步下滑态势。面对这一严峻形势,运用波特的钻石竞争理论,从资源因素、需求条件、辅助产业、企业战略及政策带来的机遇、挑战等方面进行比较,对中国奶粉不具有国际竞争力进行原因分析。总的来看,中国奶粉需求增长潜力大,但限于资源紧缺,奶源生产增长压力大,国外奶粉生产国生产成本明显低于国内,奶粉面临国际市场的竞争力较大。最后,提出挖掘奶源生产潜力,根据区域不同资源禀赋,找出适合的养殖模式,充分利用资源,提高生产效率;要重新建立消费信心,通过奶业品牌的建立与质量安全监管,增强消费信心;还要充分利用好"两个市场与两种资源",鼓励奶粉加工企业走出去引进来,从交流合作中提升自身竞争力;同时,要尊重市场规律,把握贸易政策调控等力度;最终实现提高我国奶粉的国际竞争力目的,让中国人的奶瓶子掌握在中国人自己手里。     

Evaluating the TRQ Import Licensing Mechanisms in the Canadian Chicken Industry

Tariff rate quotas (TRQs) were introduced at the end of the Uruguay Round to support market access following the tariffication of nontariff barriers to trade in agriculture. The allocation of import licenses under the TRQ regime in the Canadian chicken industry is currently made according to discretionary criteria. The welfare properties of this import licensing scheme are evaluated in comparison with a less discretionary allocation method such as first-come, first-served (FCFS) using a numerical model. The analysis also provides a welfare evaluation of both methods as the current minimum access commitment for chicken imports is expanded. It is found that total welfare in the Canadian chicken industry is likely to be higher under a TRQ administration method based on nondiscretionary criteria such as firstcome, first-served. However, particular assumptions about the chicken producers'response to increased foreign competition can reverse this finding. Moreover the welfare differences between the two license administration schemes are less important when market access to imports is substantial.     

Unconventional adjustment strategies for rural households in the less developed areas in Greece

International competition in agricultural production is intensifying following the implementation of the 1993 accord of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade. The production of conventional farm products in surplus is being discouraged by means of indirect economic disincentives. The Common Agricultural Policy has already adjusted to unprotected national markets within the European Union and greater market orientation is being achieved mainly through price reductions. Farmers in the less developed areas in Greece, where agricultural activity is still the main source of income and employment, have been responding to policy reforms by seeking part-time employment and income in non-farm enterprises. The adoption of alternative, unconventional farm enterprises that use farm resources in an innovative and quantitatively different way does have the potential for bringing in a new source of income to farm business. For the purpose of this research three adjustment strategies were recognised. The ‘conventional’ (no change) pathway is based on traditional, region-specific products, production methods and services. The adoption of the ‘new crop’ pathway refers to the redeployment of resources into new agricultural products, whereas farms on the market integration Pathway redeploy resources into new marketing services and agricultural product processing on the farm. The new crop and the market integration pathways are identified as unconventional adjustment strategies. Results derived from multinomial logit analysis highlight the major constraints and opportunities associated with the adoption of new crops and market integration practices. Farmers who have adopted unconventional practices are influenced by factors external to the farm. such as contacts with institutions, and have a high probability of having higher debts. These farmers are likely to depend heavily on seasonal labour and rented land. The fact that market integration activities are associated with smaller farms in conjunction with off-farm work signifies the importance of establishing an integrated rural development policy approach. Public policy involvement in enhancing dissemination of information concerning unconventional enterprises is emphasised.     

Protecting farm land near cities : Trade-offs with affordable housing in Hawaii

In protecting farm land near cities, policy makers must balance the interests of farmers against affordable housing demands of the urban population. This article examines land use competition between agriculture and housing on the Hawaiian island of Oahu. Land suitability ratings for farming and urban development are compared, and future urban expansion onto agricultural land is simulated under different land use policies. Results indicate severe tradeoffs for affordable housing if all high quality farm lands are strictly preserved. Achieving farmland protection goals will require further policy support to transform the local farm structure from plantation to diversified agriculture.     

AGRICULTURAL POLICY IN WEST GERMANY

Much of the area which at present constitutes the German Federal Republic was, in the past, agriculturally backward. Since 1949, West German agriculture has made considerable technical progress, but still suffers from severe structural problems. These problems of small farm size and fragmentation have their origin in the 18th century, when farmers obtained control of the land without the enclosure movement experienced in Britain, and no serious programme of structural reform was undertaken before 1939. In recent years, West German agriculture has increased production very greatly and at the same time reduced its labour force at an unprecedented rate. Moreover, a substantial programme of structural reform was initiated in the 1950's. As a result, farmers' incomes have risen at roughly the same rate as other incomes. In the last few years, West German agriculture has come under increasing pressure as a result of economic developments and the competition of other Common Market countries. It is clear that a more radical programme of structural reform is needed.     

中国土地耕作成本及相关问题的经济学分析

研究目的:探寻土地耕作成本的变化规律,以及与农产品供给、农产品价格、农业规模经营和土地永久弃耕之间的关系。研究方法:经济学模型。研究结果:由土地质量差异形成的土地耕作成本自然递增规律,通过影响农产品市场价格而决定着农产品的市场供给量,并影响政府农业补贴和土地规模经营的实际效果。研究结论:未来国内的粮食价格将由必须投入农业生产的质量最差、劳动生产率最低的耕地上的粮食生产成本决定;政府提供的农业补贴,只能保证国内的粮食供给,但不能解决农村的贫困问题;大规模的粮食进口会降低国内的粮食价格,使一部分耕作成本较高的耕地出现永久弃耕,从而降低粮食自给率。     

China’s Agricultural Policy Transition: Impacts of Recent Reforms and Future Scenarios

This article reviews recent developments in China’s agricultural domestic support policy, especially the transition from taxing farmers and agriculture to providing direct subsidies to grain production and purchased inputs. A model‐based quantitative analysis on the effects of these policy changes is presented. Simulation results suggest that recent policy changes have achieved the declared policy goals of increasing grain production and boosting farm income. Much of the increase in grain production and farm income can be attributed to higher per unit return to arable land, land reallocation to grain production and extra agricultural employment triggered by the policy changes. Based on the assumption that China’s public assistance to agriculture and farmers will continue and rise, two hypothetical future scenarios are simulated. Using all the support permitted under WTO de minimis limits with existing instruments, China’s policy will increase grain production, change trade patterns seemingly contrary to China’s comparative advantage, increase rural employment and significantly increase farm income (by more than 12%). If, however, decoupled instruments are applied to raise China’s agricultural domestic support to the same level, China’s agricultural production and trade will remain unchanged, rural employment remain stable, but farm income will be increased by nearly 15%.     

Assessing CAP Reform: Sensitivity of Modelling Decoupled Policies

The European Union reformed farm policy in June 2003 towards the decoupling of farm income support instruments. Available impact studies find that this reform reduces production incentives substantially for beef and to a lesser extent for arable crops. However, these studies assume that the previous reform, under Agenda 2000, already decoupled arable crop direct payments to a considerable extent, while beef premiums were linked more closely to production. Our main objective in this paper is to test the sensitivity of these results to this questionable modelling of Agenda 2000 direct payments, which neglects eligibility rules and land market imperfections. Our analysis reveals that the effects of the reform on both arable crop and beef production are always negative, however the Agenda 2000 direct payments are modelled. On the other hand, we show that, when the eligibility rules and land market imperfections are acknowledged, the production reducing effects may be much larger for arable crops than for beef. Policy implications of these results are noted.     

The effect of decoupling on marginal agricultural systems: Implications for farm incomes,land use and upland ecology

In many parts of Europe, decades of production subsidies led to the steady intensification of agriculture in marginal areas. The recent decoupling of subsidies from production decisions means that the future of farming in these areas is uncertain. For example, in the uplands of the United Kingdom, an area important both for biodiversity conservation and ecosystem service provision, hill farmers steadily increased stocking densities in response to headage payments but must now reconfigure farm businesses to account for the shift to the Single Farm Payment scheme. We examined hill farming in the Peak District National Park as a case study into the future of marginal agriculture after decoupling. We surveyed 44 farm businesses and from this identified six representative farm types based on enterprise mix and land holdings. We developed linear programming models of production decisions for each farm type to examine the impacts of policy changes, comparing the effects of decoupling with and without agri-environment and hill farm support, and evaluating the effects of removal of the Single Farm Payment. The main effects of decoupling are to reduce stocking rates, and to change the mix of livestock activities. Agri-environmental schemes mediate the income losses from decoupling, and farmers are predicted to maximise take up of new Environmental Stewardship programmes, which have both positive and negative feedback effects on livestock numbers. Finally, removal of the Single Farm Payment leads to negative net farm incomes, and some land abandonment. These changes have important implications for ongoing debates about how ecological service flows can be maintained from upland areas, and how marginal upland farming communities can be sustained.     

Market and Other Factors Affecting Farm Specific Production Efficiency in Pig Production in Vietnam

ABSTRACT

In developing country production environment, farm production efficiency is often measured in terms of on-farm resources and producer characteristics. In this paper we postulate that input and output market related factors also influence farm production decisions hence its efficiency. Stochastic frontier production function was used to assess technical efficiency and its determinants including input and output market variables for a sample of 1962 pig farms in Vietnam with data collected in 1999. There are significant differences in production behavior and efficiency level between the North and the South, among farms producing different breeds, between mixed and specialized farms, between household and commercial farms, and among producers located in different agro-ecological regions. Access to better output market, land size, herd size, and education of household head significantly reduced inefficiency, while access to government supplied inputs, age of household head, female headed households and family supplied crude feeds significantly increased inefficiency in both the regions. The direction of influence on efficiency differs between the two regions for access to credit, proportion of output sold at market rather than at farm gate and family labor supply. Generally, market related factors had more consistent influence on production efficiency in the South of Vietnam where the experience of market economics is longer compared to the North. Policy actions on providing better extension, more timely access to better quality inputs through the private sector, making credit more easily accessible to smallholders and opportunity to sell output at better priced secondary markets are expected to increase productivity and reduce inefficiency.     

Off‐farm labor market decisions and agricultural shocks among rural households in Kenya

Using household level data from rural Kenya, this article explores whether and how farm households respond to unfavorable agricultural production environments, including any ex post adjustments in off‐farm labor supply in response to unexpected weather shocks. While controlling for a wide range of educational, demographic, and other locational factors, we examine how long‐term weather conditions and specific rainfall shocks influence a household's decision to engage in, and their earnings from, the off‐farm labor market. We find that rural households engage in off‐farm work as a long‐term strategy to deal with the effects of anticipated weather conditions on their farming operations. The analysis does not reveal major short‐term adjustments in off‐farm engagement as a result of specific, unexpected rainfall shocks; these households do however rely on remittance income and petty agricultural wage labor under these circumstances. Holding other factors constant, and conditional on participation, households in areas with a more productive local agriculture tend to earn more from off‐farm work especially in the informal/business sector than their counterparts in regions with a less productive agriculture. As expected, a vibrant local economy in the form of public investment increases the probability of off‐farm participation.     

警惕我国粮食安全保障能力下降

我国粮食生产"七连增",也出现粮食进口"七连增",突破95%的粮食自给保障线,大规模"进口土地"成为常态。当前,诸多不利因素都在动摇粮食稳产增产的基础,特别是水资源约束、耕地数量与质量下降将严重影响我国粮食安全保障能力。必须调整国家工业化、城镇化空间布局战略以保证粮食资源,大幅度减少耕地占用指标,实行部分农田的"零"占用制度,建立粮食进口多元支撑战略。     

Professional urban agriculture and its characteristic business models in Metropolis Ruhr,Germany

‘Low-cost specialization’, ‘differentiation’, and ‘diversification’ are three overarching business models of professional urban agriculture in developed countries. Manifold city-adjusted farm activities belong to these business models resulting in the characteristic farm heterogeneity of urban areas. This paper makes use of the business models as tool for a geo-statistical analysis to spatially investigate farming patterns in reference region Metropolis Ruhr, Germany. Additional farm interviews substantiate findings of the geo-statistical analysis by focusing on horticulture as a common farm activity towards ‘low-cost specialization’, direct marketing and participatory farming belonging to ‘differentiation’, and equestrian services as a representative of the ‘diversification’ business model. These farm activities and underlying business models concentrate and tend to spatially cluster in the metropolitan’s center where population density is highest and farmland proportion is lowest. Agriculture plays a significant role in Metropolis Ruhr cultivating about one-third of the metropolitan area, but on-going loss of farmland and short-term lease of land affect farms considerably by complicating access to land. Most differentiated and diversified farms require certain amount of farmland to be successful, which is threatened by further farmland losses along with increased competition for the remaining farmland. Long-term planning security is crucial for farms focusing on high added value crops and organic farming. Progressively emerging participatory farming activities demonstrate urban farms’ abilities to innovatively adapt to societal demands. Better knowledge on professional urban agriculture’s farm activities and business models is of importance for farms and their related advisory services to address the urban context in farm development strategies more accurately, but also for public authorities’ planning and policies in land-related decision making. Economic viability of professional urban agriculture is the key requirement for additional social, environmental, and landscape functions within urban areas.     

The New Century of Multi-Agriculturalism

Two large issues face American agriculture in the 21st century. Commodity policy has erred by placing excessive regulations on prices and production levels, creating rent-seeking opportunities for some farm producers. Escaping the lingering adverse consequences of these market regulations remains a challenge, both at home and abroad. A new challenge will be to avoid an onerous reregulation of agriculture according to production methods, creating new rent-seeking opportunities. Diverse farm enterprises can prosper in the future if informed consumer choice is preserved within free and competitive food markets, but finding a policy framework to foster this desirable multi-agriculturalism will prove daunting.     

基于钻石模型的甘肃省定西市马铃薯产业竞争力分析

马铃薯是定西市的优势产业,也是特色产业。近年来,一带一路的发展增加了定西市马铃薯进入市场的渠道,但是与国内具有良好马铃薯资源条件的内蒙、贵州等生产区域之间仍然存在着差距和竞争。在借鉴已有研究成果的基础上,以定西市马铃薯的产业为研究对象,运用波特的钻石模型即从需求条件、同业竞争、要素条件、相关和支持产业以及机会和政府等对定西市马铃薯产业竞争力的影响,找到提高定西市马铃薯产业竞争力的途径。     

A Market-Forces Policy for the New Farm Economy?

This paper first discusses the changes that are bringing about the New Farm Economy. A wave of consolidation has shifted agricultural production to larger, lower cost producers in almost all sectors of agriculture. At the same time, supply chains represent a new form of ownership and control that is replacing commodity markets as the preferred way to market farm output. Both consolidation and the development of supply chains offer the possibility of producing a greater variety of safer, cheaper food. The paper argues that farm policy, crafted for the agriculture of the 1930s, is no longer necessary to raise or stabilize farm incomes, and is largely ineffective anyway. Moreover, farm policy impedes the market forces driving innovation and efficiency in the farm economy. Letting market forces guide the evolution of the farm economy, unfettered by outdated government programs and unnecessary farm subsidies, is the best way to harness the benefits of the New Farm Economy. Getting rid of government subsidies and control will lead to dramatically fewer farmers in agriculture: a policy to deal explicitly with those who will leave agriculture is needed. A transition policy is described that focuses on helping reduce the number of farmers by offering a buyout to farm producers which subsidizes their exit from farming and prevents reentry.