The impact of monetary policy on asset prices

Estimating the response of asset prices to changes in monetary policy is complicated by the endogeneity of policy decisions and the fact that both interest rates and asset prices react to numerous other variables. This paper develops a new estimator that is based on the heteroskedasticity that exists in high-frequency data. We show that the response of asset prices to changes in monetary policy can be identified based on the increase in the variance of policy shocks that occurs on days of FOMC meetings and of the Chairman's semi-annual monetary policy testimony to Congress. The identification approach employed requires a much weaker set of assumptions than needed under the “event-study” approach that is typically used in this context. The results indicate that an increase in short-term interest rates results in a decline in stock prices and in an upward shift in the yield curve that becomes smaller at longer maturities. The findings also suggest that the event-study estimates contain biases that make the estimated effects on stock prices appear too small and those on Treasury yields too large.     

关于我国资产价格与货币供应量关系的实证研究

随着金融市场深化与资本市场发展,资产价格波动对货币政策提出新的挑战。该文在回顾相关理论研究的基础上,从完善资产价格统计范围的角度,对我国资产价格与货币供应量的实证关系进行了研究。结果发现,资产价格变动确会对货币政策中介目标产生影响,且不同资产价格对不同层次货币供应量影响不一。建议密切关注资产价格,提升货币政策的前瞻性。     

关于资产价格与货币政策问题的一些思考

在全球金融危机的大背景下,货币政策是否应该对资产价格膨胀作出反应引起关注。本文对相关理论进行了归纳,并从通货膨胀机理的角度对资产价格与货币政策的关系进行了探讨,提出了建立和完善更加关注资产价格的货币政策框架的建议。     

美联储货币政策对我国资产价格的影响

本文利用事件研究法考察了美联储货币政策对我国资产价格的影响。研究发现美联储货币政策会显著影响我国资产价格,美联储加息会降低我国债券和股票回报,降息则会提高债券和股票回报。将美联储货币政策进行细分后发现,预期到的货币政策调整对债券市场和股票市场的回报都有显著影响,而未预期到的货币政策调整和前瞻性指引只影响债券市场。进一步的研究表明,未预期到的美联储货币政策调整和前瞻性指引还会加剧我国金融市场的波动率。本文的研究结论为美联储货币政策对我国经济金融的影响提供了新的证据,对于投资者提高投资收益、降低投资风险以及货币当局完善我国货币政策调控和维护我国金融市场稳定具有重要意义。     

流动性、物价稳定与资产价格上涨——从理论模型看日本的经验教训

本文以20世纪80年代中后期的日本为对象，从理论和实证两方面研究在低利率、物价稳定的背景下，资产泡沫形成的原因，以及日本银行货币政策失误的教训，并对我国当前低利率、物价稳定、资产价格上涨并存的现象提出政策建议。本文认为，应避免汇率升值对利率产生过大的影响，维持国内利率政策的独立性；货币政策以物价稳定为主要目标，但应密切关注持续的资产价格上涨；维持稳健的货币政策，防止货币政策矫枉过正。     

Monetary Policy and Asset Prices: A Mechanism Design Approach

We investigate the effects of monetary policy on asset prices in economies where assets are traded periodically in bilateral meetings. The trading mechanism is designed to maximize social welfare taking as given the frictions in the environment and monetary policy. We show that asset price “bubbles” emerge in a constrained‐efficient monetary equilibrium only if liquidity is abundant and the first‐best allocation is implementable. In contrast, if liquidity is scarce, assets are priced at their fundamental value in any constrained‐efficient monetary equilibrium, in which case an increase in inflation has no effect on asset prices, but it reduces output and welfare.     

资产价格泡沫与我国货币政策传导效应的非对称性研究

本文通过构造含有资产价格泡沫的经济系统,使用结构向量自回归模型与脉冲响应函数分析了我国货币政策对资产泡沫的影响和资产价格泡沫与其它变量之间的关系。结果表明,我国货币政策的资产价格传导渠道效应显著存在,但货币政策的资产价格效应对于不同资产类型具有非对称性,货币政策对股票市场的影响要远远大于对房地产市场的影响;资产价格泡沫的正向冲击对通货膨胀呈现出倒U型影响,并且不同资产类型对通货膨胀具有非对称性,股票市场对通货膨胀的影响要远远大于房地产市场;资产价格泡沫对产出具有正向效应,但不同资产价格类型对于产出冲击也存在非对称性,股票资产价格对产出的影响要小于房地产对产出的影响。     

What Asset Prices Should Be Targeted by a Central Bank?

This paper investigates the monetary policy design for restoring equilibrium determinacy. Our interests are whether a central bank should respond to asset price fluctuations, and if so, what asset prices should be targeted. We show that a monetary policy response to the price of a productive tangible asset (capital price) is helpful for equilibrium determinacy, while that to the price of an intangible asset that reflects a firm's profit (share prices) is a source of equilibrium indeterminacy. This result comes from the two assets' prices moving in opposite directions in response to a permanent increase in inflation.     

资产价格膨胀,货币政策转向

近期,货币当局的一系列言论都涉及了一个敏感的话题,即货币政策和资产价格的关系.央行货币政策司司长张晓慧以个人名义公开发表<关于货币政策与资产价格>一文,她认为鉴于当前全球通胀机理所发生的变化,中央银行需要重新思考货币政策如何应对资产价格.此文一出,学术界纷纷揣测未来货币政策的目标是否会出现新的动向,不过监管当局随后的表态则说明,央行虽然非常关注资产价格变化及其成因,特别是宏观层面的原因,但央行目前仍不以资产价格作为货币政策直接调控目标.     

资产价格波动形势下货币政策工具的宏观调控效应比较研究

本文通过构建VAR模型,识别资产价格对不同货币政策工具冲击的响应程度,发现各项贷款对于调控资产价格的效力最强,其次为货币供应量和利率政策。值得注意的是,贷款增长对于股价膨胀起到了重要支撑和推动作用,同时贷款少增对股价收缩效应也非常显著。本文强调,信贷数量调控对于平抑资产价格波动十分关键,选择性货币政策工具(Selective Credit Control)对于资产价格波动具有特殊调控效力。最后,本文提出了资产价格膨胀与资产价格收缩不同时期货币政策工具的搭配建议。     

A macroeconomic model with asset equilibrium for an open economy

This article is concerned with the problem of the effects of monetary policy in an open economy in the long run. In order to analyze this problem under assumptions that are more suitable for long-run analysis than those of the usual IS-LM model a new model has been constructed with flexible prices, fixed exchange rates and a flexible capital stock. Within this framework it is found that the effectiveness of monetary policy crucially depends upon the degree of asset and goods arbitrage across national borders. Sufficient asset or goods arbitrage are both sufficient conditions to yield a zero effect of monetary policy except on foreign exchange reserves.     

Risk premia,asset price bubbles,and monetary policy

We develop a dynamic general equilibrium asset pricing model with heterogeneous beliefs to study the effects of monetary policy on prices, risk premia, asset price bubbles, and financial stability. We propose a new framework for monetary policy with respect to bubbles. Because bubble risk premia arise from an interaction between disagreements among investors and dynamic trading constraints, under a non-accommodative monetary policy, liquidity adjusted risk and bubble risk premia increase. What matters for policy is the trading constrained fraction/mass of agents that disagree about fundamentals (i.e. optimists/pessimists). Accommodative policy can lead to a larger fraction of trading constrained agents that disagree, larger bubbles, and increased systemic risk. An implication of our results is that accommodative monetary policy in response to the Covid-19 crisis does not increase systemic risk due to asset price bubbles, as long as the policy keeps inflation under control.     

通货膨胀、货币供给与房地产市场关系的实证研究——基于后危机时代数据的考察

我国在2009年底推出的经济政策导致房价和物价不断攀升,央行虽然采取紧缩措施进行应对,但物价和房价仍处高位。对我国货币供给、通货膨胀及房地产之间关系进行理论和实证分析的结果显示:货币供给增加能引起物价和房价上涨;房价上涨能引起物价上涨等。因此,为了更好地应对物价波动,货币政策需关注资产价格,同时应谨慎使用货币政策应对资产泡沫,并密切注意货币流动结构,维持货币供给流向与实体经济发展相适应。     

The real effects of financial stress in the Eurozone

This paper examines the real effects of financial stress in the Euro-zone, using two identification strategies based on a Bayesian Structural VAR and a Sign-Restriction VAR. As expansionary monetary policy has been blamed to have fuelled asset price bubble, it is important to assess the macroeconomic impact of both a financial stress shock and a monetary policy shock. We find that unexpected variation in financial stress conditions plays an important role in explaining output fluctuations and, therefore, demands an aggressive response by the monetary authority to stabilize output. This, in turn, indicates a preference shift from inflation targeting. We also show that a monetary policy contraction strongly deteriorates financial stress conditions. As a result, rapid credit growth due to a long period of low interest rates possibly contributed to an increase in asset prices and encouraged unsustainable demand growth as observed in the recent financial crisis.     

资产价格波动与金融不稳定性:传导机制与政策选择

美国次贷危机之后,资产价格对经济金融稳定的影响受到广泛关注。本文首先指出,金融的不稳定性很大程度上根源于资产价格周期性的波动;然后从银行信贷、市场流动性、信息不对称以及非理性行为四个方面具体阐述了资产价格波动对金融稳定的影响机制;最后提出应对资产价格波动的政策建议,包括货币政策应该关注而非盯住资产价格、关注资产价格背后的信用扩张而非资产价格本身、监管部门应加快构建宏观审慎监管框架等。     

Futures markets and monetary policy

It has recently been argued that when differentially informed agents trade with one another monetary policy can influence the distribution of output by altering the information content of prices. This paper introduces a futures market into the Barro (1980) model and shows that under certain conditions prices may aggregate information in a manner such that differentially informed agents hold identical beliefs concerning aggregate market conditions. In such cases, monetary policy will be unable to influence the distribution of output. These results then serve as a backdrop for a more general discussion of the relationship between asset prices and the role of monetary policy.     

Asset price dynamics,inflation and sectoral composition of output: a dependent economy model

This article develops a dependent economy model that focuses on the interactions between inflation and asset price dynamics under a flexible exchange rate and rational expectation. We assume that money wage adjusts instantaneously to clear the labour market. The asset prices are represented by the Tobin’s q and exchange rate. Using this framework, we will examine implications of monetary policy, fiscal policy, tariff liberalization and exogenous capital flows for inflation and asset prices, which in turn determine the allocation of labour and the sectoral composition of output. The effects of different exogenous and policy-induced shocks critically depend on the difference in the speeds of adjustment in commodity price and asset prices and multiple cross effects generated by changes in these prices.     

Inflation targeting,asset prices,and financial imbalances: Contextualizing the debate

This paper casts the debate regarding the role of asset prices and financial imbalances in the formulation of monetary policy from the perspective of theoretically optimal policy responses. Within the context of a standard model of the transmission mechanism, several possible motivations for responding to financial imbalances are highlighted. However, preventative policy actions against the build-up of financial imbalances cannot be easily understood within such a framework without fundamental modification to the underlying model. It is argued that a more practical way to evaluate such actions is through the inclusion of concerns for financial imbalances explicitly in the central bank's objective function.     

Asset substitutability and monetary policy: An alternative characterization

A distance function is defined for a simple portfolio choice problem and then used to express the impact on asset prices of a change in an asset stock as the sum of a substitution and a wealth effect. Substitutes and complements are defined with reference to qualtity rather than price changes. This method of characterizing asset substitutability leads to simpler and more easily interpreted results when analyzing monetary policy that does the standard approach which expresses asset price changes in terms of the price elasticities of the asset demand functions.     

Money and asset prices with uninsurable risks

We present a theory of differences of liquidity across assets, based on an endogenous ranking of assets as media of exchange arising from their relative quality as hedging devices. When assets have two distinct roles, as intertemporal media of exchange and hedging devices, buyers have generically a strict preference for paying sellers with the asset which is the relative better hedging device for sellers. The consequence of this preference is that there are three monetary policy regimes, and these regimes differ in which assets serve as media of exchange, whether assets carry a liquidity premium, and in the impact that monetary policy has on asset prices.