Contagion risk in the interbank market: a probabilistic approach to cope with incomplete structural information

One lesson of the financial crisis erupting in 2008 has been that domino effects constitute a serious threat to the stability of the financial sector, i.e. the failure of one node in the interbank network might entail the danger of contagion to large parts of the entire system. How important this effect is, depends on the exact topology of the network on which the supervisory authorities have typically very incomplete knowledge. In order to explore the extent of contagion effects and to analyse the effectiveness of macroprudential measures to contain such effects, a reconstruction of the quantitative features of the empirical network would be needed. We propose a probabilistic approach to such a reconstruction: we propose to combine some important known quantities (like the size of the banks) with a realistic stochastic representation of the remaining structural elements. Our approach allows us to evaluate relevant measures for the contagion risk after default of one unit (i.e. the number of expected subsequent defaults, or their probabilities). For some quantities we are able to derive closed form solutions, others can be obtained via computational mean-field approximations.     

衍生品电子化交易确认及其在银行间市场的应用研究

自全球金融危机以来,国际场外衍生品市场监管逐渐趋于严格和透明,标准化和电子化已成为衍生品市场发展的重要趋势。文章回顾了场外衍生品电子化交易确认业务的产生背景、发展进程与发展经验,介绍了国内银行间衍生品市场应用电子化交易确认业务的实践,及其对于提高市场标准化程度、降低市场风险以及完善衍生品市场基础设施的重要意义。     

Lending relationships in the interbank market

We use a unique dataset to show that relationships are an important determinant of banks' ability to access interbank market liquidity. More precisely, we find that: (i) banks with a larger reserve imbalance are more likely to borrow funds from banks with whom they have a relationship, and to pay a lower interest rate than otherwise; (ii) smaller banks and banks with more non-performing loans tend to have limited access to international markets, and rely more on relationships; (iii) relationships are established between banks with less correlated liquidity shocks. These results suggest that relationships allow banks to insure liquidity risk in the presence of market frictions such as transaction and information costs. Our analysis explicitly controls for the endogeneity of bank relationships.     

Network topology of the interbank market

We provide an empirical analysis of the network structure of the Austrian interbank market based on Austrian Central Bank (OeNB) data. The interbank market is interpreted as a network where banks are nodes and the claims and liabilities between banks define the links. This allows us to apply methods from general network theory. We find that the degree distributions of the interbank network follow power laws. Given this result we discuss how the network structure affects the stability of the banking system with respect to the elimination of a node in the network, i.e. the default of a single bank. Further, the interbank liability network shows a community structure that exactly mirrors the regional and sectoral organization of the current Austrian banking system. The banking network has the typical structural features found in numerous other complex real-world networks: a low clustering coefficient and a short average path length. These empirical findings are in marked contrast to the network structures that have been assumed thus far in the theoretical economic and econo-physics literature.     

Quantifying preferential trading in the e-MID interbank market

Interbank markets allow credit institutions to exchange capital for purposes of liquidity management. These markets are among the most liquid markets in the financial system. However, liquidity of interbank markets dropped during the 2007–2008 financial crisis, and such a lack of liquidity influenced the entire economic system. In this paper, we analyse transaction data from the e-MID market which is the only electronic interbank market in the Euro Area and US, over a period of 11 years (1999–2009). We adapt a method developed to detect statistically validated links in a network, in order to reveal preferential trading in a directed network. Preferential trading between banks is detected by comparing empirically observed trading relationships with a null hypothesis that assumes random trading among banks doing a heterogeneous number of transactions. Preferential trading patterns are revealed at time windows of 3-maintenance periods. We show that preferential trading is observed throughout the whole period of analysis and that the number of preferential trading links does not show any significant trend in time, in spite of a decreasing trend in the number of pairs of banks making transactions. We observe that preferential trading connections typically involve large trading volumes. During the crisis, we also observe that transactions occurring between banks with a preferential connection occur at larger interest rates than the complement set—an effect that is not observed before the crisis.     

2011年10月银行间市场运行报告

2011年10月,银行间市场平稳运行,主要特点是：货币市场利率呈U型走势,银行间国债收益率曲线整体下移;境内即期美元盘中汇率大幅偏离基准价格,境内外价差持续倒挂,竞价市场成交份额显著增长;利率互换中以Shibor为浮动端参考利率的品种成交量居首位;外汇衍生品交易环比下滑,境内外衍生品价格倒挂程度减轻。     

Network centrality and funding rates in the e-MID interbank market

This paper empirically investigates the role of banks’ network centrality in the interbank market on their funding rates. Specifically we analyze transaction data from the e-MID market, the only electronic interbank market in the Euro Area and US, over the period 2006–2009 that encompasses the global financial crisis. We show that interbank spreads are significantly affected by both local and global measures of connectedness. The effects of network centrality increased as the financial crisis evolved. Local measures show that having more links increases borrowing costs for borrowers and reduces premia for lenders. For global network centrality, borrowers receive a significant discount if they increase their intermediation activity and become more central, while lenders pay in general a premium (i.e. receive lower rates) for centrality. This provides evidence of the ‘too-interconnected-to-fail’ hypothesis.     

Assessing financial contagion in the interbank market: Maximum entropy versus observed interbank lending patterns

Interbank markets allow banks to cope with specific liquidity shocks. At the same time, they may represent a channel for contagion as a bank default may spread to other banks through interbank linkages. This paper analyses how contagion propagates within the Italian interbank market using a unique data set including actual bilateral exposures. Based on the availability of information on actual bilateral exposures for all Italian banks, the results obtained by assuming the maximum entropy are compared with those reflecting the observed structure of interbank claims. The comparison indicates that, under certain circumstances, depending on the structure of the interbank linkages, the recovery rates of interbank exposures and banks’ capitalisation, the maximum entropy approach overrates the scope for contagion.     

2009年银行间市场运行报告

2009年,银行间外汇、货币、债券和汇率衍生品市场整体运行平稳：货币市场利率前期走势平稳,下半年震荡回升;shib0r短端较年初有所回升,中长端普遍下降;银行间国债收益率曲线整体上移;人民币兑美元汇率累计升值0．12％,远期市场价格走势显示人民币汇率预期由贬转升。     

2011年8月银行间市场运行报告

2011年8月,银行间市场平稳运行,交易量较上月小幅增长。主要特点是：货币市场利率先抑后扬;银行间国债收益率曲线平坦化;人民币对美元汇率中间价升值步伐明显加快,交易价波动加剧;利率互换交易再创单月历史新高;外汇掉期曲线整体小幅上移,显示升值预期减弱;外汇即期竞价清算业务正式移交上海清算所。     

2011年银行问债券市场运行报告

2011年,银行间债券市场波动幅度加大,市场制度和基础设施建设进一步完善。其主要特点是：全年债券指数呈先抑后扬走势,年末较年初略有上升,债券收益率波动幅度加大;债券发行规模同比下降,但债券品种更加丰富,发行方式不断优化;市场交易总体活跃,信用债券市场保持陕速增长,债券市场支持经济发展的力度进一步增强。     

2011年2月银行间市场运行报告

2011年2月份,银行间市场安全、稳定、有效运行,交易量稳步增长。主要特点是：货币市场资金面恢复宽松,短期利率明显回落;现券市场银行间国债指数震荡上扬,交易集中于中短期品种;外汇市场人民币对美元汇率中间价再创历史新高,非美货币交易保持活跃;汇率衍生品市场维持较高成交水平,人民币升值预期显著增强。     

2011年1月银行间市场运行报告

2011年1月,银行间市场安全、稳定、有效运行,交易量稳步增长。主要特点是：货币市场资金面持续紧张,利率大幅上升,短期交易仍占主导;现券市场国债指数先扬后抑,交易集中于中短期品种,政策性金融债受青睐;外汇市场即期尝试做市机构表现积极,非美货币交易进一步活跃;利率互换交易同比显著放大,成交利率持续走高,尝试做市机构在汇率衍生品市场亦显活跃。     

2011年7月银行间市场运行报告

2011年7月,银行间市场平稳运行,交易稳步增长。主要特点是：货币市场利率震荡下行,银行间国债收益率曲线上移明显;外汇即期市场交易延续活跃,外汇掉期曲线整体上移,汇率升值预期减弱,人民币外汇期权交易进一步活跃。人民币外汇掉期、远期净额清算试运行,净额清算业务向衍生品市场延伸。     

2011年4月银行间市场运行报告

2011年4月份,银行间市场平稳运行,交易量继续稳步增长。其主要特点是：货币市场资金面逐渐收紧,短期利率有所上升;国债指数震荡上行,现券交易集中于中短期品种;人民币对美元汇率中间价升值速度加快,交易价波幅扩大,非美货币交易继续活跃;人民币外汇期权交易正式启航,人民币利率互换交易同比显著放大。     

International stock market leadership and its determinants

We study time-varying price leadership between international stock markets using a Markov switching causality model. We demonstrate variations in the causality pattern over time, with the US being the dominant country in causing other markets. We examine the factors which determine a country’s role in the causal relationship. For country-specific factors, we show that trades openness increases price leadership. We also find that the lead–lag relationship between the stock markets is weaker during crisis periods, confirming the “wake-up call” hypothesis, with markets and investors focusing substantially more on idiosyncratic, country-specific characteristics during the crisis.     

同业拆借市场的新里程碑

《同业拆借管理办法》的出台,揭开了同业拆借市场发展的崭新一页,主要表现为,同业拆借市场资金供需主体趋于多元化,融资能力明显加强,货币市场容量得到了有效扩大;同业拆借利率反映货币市场利率的信号指示功能不断完善,Shibor在利率市场的基准地位稳步加强;市场透明度显著提高,市场发展更加健康有序。     

2011年5月银行间市场运行报告

2011年5月,银行间市场平稳运行,交易量稳步增长。主要特点是：货币市场资金面大幅收紧,短期利率全线大涨;银行间国债指数继续上行,收益率曲线平坦化;人民币外汇即期市场主要汇率趋稳,交投活跃,非美货币中间价波动剧烈;人民币利率互换交易量显著增长,短期化特征依然明显;人民币外汇期权交易放大,外汇衍生品市场发生结构性变化。