The Kuznets curve: Evidence from Prussia revisited

Conclusions To avoid confusion arising from mixing up methods, the methodological arsenal was restricted to the computation of percentiles as this was the favoured device in the Kuznets-paper. But with an increasing population the interpretation of rising percentiles is by no means straightforward (which is equally true with other measures of inequality). When the number of income-receiving units and their mean income are held constant, rising shares of the top-income receivers can be interpreted in terms of “rich people getting richer and poor people getting poorer”. But when both, the number of units and their mean income are rising, the interpretation of rising percentiles is quite a problem. For example, aggregating two populations with all percentiles alike (i.e. identical Lorenz curves) but different mean incomes would result in a greater population with increased shares of the top-income receivers and lessened shares of the low-income receivers (i.e. a Lorenz curve more close to the boundaries of the rectangle). It is obvious from this example that the welfare implications of increasing percentiles cannot be separated from the welfare implications of rising mean incomes. Especially, with rising populations and rising mean incomes the income shares of the top-income receivers may very well increase without any poor man getting poorer, so that not even Rawls [1971] would necessarily object to such a development. Bearing these limitations in mind, the outcomes of the previous sections may be summarized in confirming Kuznets’ surmise that income inequality in Prussia increased within the second half of the last century. Furthermore, it is emphasized that the peak was most probably reached around the turn of the century with the First World War merely fortifying the equalizing tendencies which originated from the economic development process itself.     

A Kuznets curve analysis of ozone-depleting substances and the impact of the Montreal Protocol

This paper examines the relationship between countries' propensityto emit chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and income per capita. Themain part of the analysis uses dynamic estimation methods ona panel of CFC production. In contrast to static analyses, wefind statistically significant quadratic relationship betweenincome and CFC production, with a critical income level in theKuznets curve of $16,050. This reinforces the trend observedin other papers that global pollutants have higher criticalincome levels than local or urban pollutants. In addition, itsuggests that, in the absence of any international agreement,CFC production in the poorest countries would ensure that thereis a substantial rise in global production over the next 50years.     

Cost benefit analysis and environmental policy

The use of cost benefit analysis (CBA) in British environmentalpolicy has gone through several stages. Early applications ofCBA tended to ignore environmental impacts altogether, leavethem for a subsidiary 'impact analysis', or provide only a partialmonetization of impacts. Currently, CBA is the subject of renewedinterest in government departments, in the Environment Agency,and among other agencies providing guidance and advice to government.While the amount of CBA being undertaken has increased, itsinfluence on policy making is open to question. Obstacles remain.Much CBA is expensive and this means that 'benefits transfer'is widely regarded as essential. Currently, however, the validityof much benefits transfer is questionable. Other problems arisefrom misunderstandings about the nature of economic values andthe links to individuals' self interest, and from concerns thatCBA results will 'crowd out' flexibility in decision-making,especially the likely context of multiple political objectivesover and above economic efficiency. None the less, CBA has begunto have influence in the setting of environmental taxes andalternative decision rules appear to suffer as many, if notmore, shortcomings as those faced by CBA.     

Monotone strong increases in risk and their comparative statics

We introduce a new concept of the monotone strong increase in risk (MSIR) order that imposes monotonicity restrictions on the ratio of the two cumulative of cumulative distribution functions as a special case of Rothschild–Stiglitz increases in risk that is the subset of the second‐degree stochastic dominance criterion. We show that the MSIR order implies that the conditional expectation of a random variable under one cumulative distribution function is greater than or equal to that under another cumulative distribution function. Restricting the payoff function to be linear in the random variable and limiting our analysis to risk‐averse decision‐makers who are prudent, we obtain appealing comparative statics results for the MSIR shift. This general conclusion can be applied to prevailing economic models having a linear payoff.     

Development prospects and policy for Africa: Structural adjustment and beyond

Conclusion Africa’s economic recovery in the 1990s, though somewhat fragile, is very encouraging. Policy reforms, primarily in the form of SAPs, have led to improved economic performance. However, as we approach the post-SAPs era of the 21st century, African countries need to intensify efforts in the pursuit of sound policies and further structural reforms. Much higher growth rates, exceeding 7 percent annually, are deemed as necessary to be attained and maintained over a longer period for there to be meaningful reductions in poverty. This paper has advocated a set of policy areas which need to be given priority in Africa as the 21st century approaches. African countries are in a better position now, than anytime since the crisis of the 1980s, to build a path toward sustainable development. In that regard, maintaining market-oriented policy reforms remains the imperative for the immediate future and beyond. It is now up to Africa’s leaders to provide the requisite leadership for a home-grown, rather than donor driven, attempt at sustainable socio-economic development.     

Monetary policy and the yield curve at zero interest

In contrast to affine term structure models, Black’s (1995) model of interest rates as options has properties suitable to examine the yield curve when the short-term interest rate is near zero. We estimate a Black’s model with Japan’s data to extract market expectations about duration of zero interest. We find that expectations about duration have substantially varied, which contradicts with the assumption utilized in the literature. We also find a tight link between expectations about duration and survey measures of inflation expectations, which appears to be attributable to the Bank of Japan’s commitment conditional on inflation.     

Investment subsidies and time-consistent environmental policy

We describe a model of dynamic pollution abatement choices withheterogeneous agents where, due to the presence of a distributionalobjective and to the absence of incentive-compatible compensationmechanisms, the choice of a second-best level of emission taxationis time-inconsistent. In this model, we investigate whetherinvestment subsidies can act as a substitute for policy commitment.     

International environmental policy and poverty alleviation

We investigate how alternative national and international policies and circumstances impact the Clean Development Mechanism’s (CDM) contribution to sustainable development and the pursuit of poverty eradication goals in developing countries. In particular, we focus on the importance of technology-specific versus technology-neutral environmental regulations in the project host regions. We also consider alternative CDM benefit-sharing arrangements between the host and client regions. An analytical impure-public-good model is developed which considers CDM projects as a conditional transfer exerting price and income effects. These, in turn, induce changes in the use of environmental technologies, and with it global and local environmental protection levels. Aided by model simulations using empirical data for China and the European Union, we seek to assess conditions in which CDM transfers are more favourable towards improved environmental protection and welfare in developing regions.     

论布什政府的环保政策

布什政府时期,美国政府改变了里根政府时期的保守的环保政策,在环境保护政策方面采取了新的环保方法。在空气污染政策方面,布什政府允许污染物的排放权的交易,这是以市场为基础的环保政策的应用。对这一空气污染政策进行深入分析,以揭示布什政府的环保政策的新特点和美国环保政策的发展趋势。     

Fiscal and environmental policy under monopolistic competition

Summary Keynesian demand management offsets some of the distortions caused by monopolistic competition and thus induces multiplier effects on national income and environmental damages. The cost of public funds rises with the virtual environmental tax and the degree of competition in the product market. The virtual environmental tax rises with abatement and falls with the cost of public funds. Consequently, greener preferences induce a rise in the virtual environmental tax, the cost of public funds and public abatement, and a fall in the provision of traditional public goods. A greater preference for traditional public goods harms environmental quality, since both abatement and output fall. Protecting cartels lowers the cost of public funds and may raise the provision of both traditional public goods and abatement. Environmental quality may thus rise, but other components of social welfare will fall. The paper also analyses the effects of private abatement, pollution taxes, fiscal consolidation and the progressivity of the tax system on government policy, employment, environmental quality and welfare.This paper was prepared for the OCFEB workshop Quantitative Economics for Environmental Policy held at the Tinbergen Institute Rotterdam, March 22 1994. We thank Casper van Ewijk and Jenny E. Ligthart for useful comments.     

中国经济增长中财政与货币政策效应的比较分析

1990年代末，中国政府为推动经济持续、健康发展，制订并实施了积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策。哪项政策对经济增长的拉动作用更大？笔者运用计量经济模型进行实证分析，从理论和实践两个层面论证得出近年来财政政策的效应更大。     

The assessment: environmental policy objectives, instruments, and institutions

The article provides a critique of British environmental policy,focusing in particular on the role of sustainable developmentas an organizing principle, the use of cost benefit analysis(CBA) and economic instruments, and the design of the institutionsresponsible for implementing policy. It is argued that, whileconsiderable progress has been made in the theoretical literatureto define sustainable development, successive governments inthe UK have widened the definition to the point where it provideslittle guidance for policy. Obstacles to the use of CBA arediscussed, as are the political constraints on implementingeconomic instruments in particular, the income effect. Finally,it is argued that the institutional design of the EnvironmentAgency and the Department of the Environment, Transport andthe Regions partly explains the overwhelming reliance on command-and-controlregulation.     

南京市科技人才政策研究——基于创新型城市政策文本比较分析

为探究南京科技人才政策存在的问题,运用政策文本分析法,将南京与深圳、杭州、苏州3个城市2007—2022年科技人才政策文本进行比较分析。研究发现：在时间趋势上,南京科技人才政策数量呈现逐年增长态势;在政策工具使用上,南京政策工具使用分布不均衡,供给型政策占主导地位,部分政策因支持力度稍弱或政策欠缺成效不明显。最后,从突出政策差异性、提升政策精准性、优化政策分布均衡性和提升政策成效性4个方面提出优化南京科技人才政策建议。     

Dynamic comparative advantage and the welfare effects of trade

Developing economies may face a trade-off between specializingaccording to existing comparative advantage (in low-technologygoods), and entering sectors in which they currently lack acomparative advantage, but may acquire such an advantage inthe future as a result of the potential for productivity growth(in high-technology goods). Comparative advantage is endogenouslydetermined by past technological change, while simultaneouslyshaping current rates of innovation. Hence, specialization accordingto current comparative advantage under free trade may be welfarereducing. Selective intervention may be welfare improving, bothfor the economy undertaking it, and for its trade partner.     

South Africa's integrated environmental management policy at the crossroads of conservation and development

Sustainable development, as formulated in the 1980 World Conservation Strategy and subsequent elaborations, is being advocated in South Africa by the state through development of an integrated environmental management policy. This policy, however, does not adequately reflect the principles of sustainable development and therefore it cannot provide appropriate guidelines for the practice of integrated environmental management Accordingly, it may be said that South Africa has reached a crossroads in its quest for sustainable development.