我国区域金融结构非均衡性分析

本文以金融市场和金融中介的区域信息为考察对象,对二元结构进行简要概括,并借鉴区域经济学相关理论,以区域金融发展的二元结构演进假说、区域金融发展的梯度推进假说以及区域金融发展极假说来阐释区域金融结构非均衡性的形成机制.     

一些国家和地区治理通货膨胀的做法

通货膨胀是世界各国经济发展中遇到的普遍问题，综合治理通货膨胀一直是各国政府的工作重点之一。本刊摘登一些国家和地区治理通货膨胀的做法，供读者参考。     

通货膨胀下的货币政策效力分析

最近几个月来,伴随着房价的快速上涨,水、油、电、粮食、蔬菜等日常消费品价格也开始水涨船高,通货膨胀似乎已经悄然而至,我国现行的适度宽松的货币政策在应对通胀压力时究竟效力如何,本文将通过对货币政策工具的效力分析得出相应的结论.     

基于通货膨胀治理角度的巴西货币政策

巴西经济发展的过程中,货币政策的实施以通货膨胀为代价经历了经济高速增长时期,但是高通胀并没有换来持续的增长和发展,通货膨胀目标制伴随开放经济条件,货币政策的效果有所弱化,并为此付出了一定的代价。文章以巴西通货膨胀的这一经济现象为线索,对巴西的货币政策做一梳理和评价,并期望对新兴市场国家能有一个有意义的启示。     

我国向通货膨胀目标制过渡的政策建议

通货膨胀目标制作为我国缓解通货膨胀问题的有效手段,为稳定我国金融市场发挥着至关重要的作用。现阶段,我国尚未完全实行通货膨胀目标制,究其原因在于我国现行金融市场中还存在着一系列制约实行通货膨胀目标制的因素,即货币币值、中央银行的独立性、价格指数、货币政策工具以及金融体系。基于此本文提出了相关政策建议用来抑制通货膨胀。     

西方结构型通货膨胀理论及其对我国的启示

我们正面临西方国家曾经出现并已解决的结构型通货膨胀,我们需要认真研究西方结构型通货膨胀产生的历史背景、成因及其对策,借鉴发达国家治理结构型通货膨胀的对策与措施:实行紧缩性的货币政策、价格管制政策、供给管理政策、根据国际收支和国际市场的具体情况灵活变动汇率等。     

英国战时金融政策与中国四十年代恶性通货膨胀的成因

现有文献表明，40年代中国爆发通货膨胀的直接原因是国民党政府在中日战争期间庞大财政预算赤字导致大量的货币发行。但本文笔者认为这只是问题的一方面，事实上，英国的1941年7月对中国金融政策的调整才是导致中国40年代恶性通货膨胀爆发的最重要原因之一。这说明了货币政策的改变对政治和战争有重要影响。     

安徽省金融资源配置非均衡性的福利损失分析

金融是现代经济发展的核心要素,是经济发展的首要推动力,金融资源配置的恰当与否关系到整个社会经济的正常运行。非均衡是经济的常态,具有福利和损失的两面性。金融资源配置非均衡性在安徽省的福利效应体现在它为地方经济发展带来集聚效应、信息外溢效应和辐射效应,但福利效应的影响较弱,仅省会合肥得益于集聚效应的影响经济发展较为迅速;损失主要体现在短边效应、市场割裂效应、二元经济结构差异效应及区域金融生态环境恶化等方面,不利于安徽省经济的协调发展。通过把握非均衡运行轨迹及其效应分析,在非均衡发展的战略选择上要明确金融效率是基础、协调均衡是关键和金融创新是发展。     

谈通货膨胀时期的金融经济

日前,由于国家货币发行政策的失误导致国家再次陷入严重的通货膨胀时期,人民币被迫进入贬值境地.面对难以缓解的通货膨胀压力,金融经济也陷入了前所未有的困难,采取应对策略处理通货膨胀时期的金融业发展成为了社会经济研究的焦点.本文就通货膨胀与金融经济相关问题开展论述.     

Inflation Uncertainty and Monetary Policy in China

This paper uses a stochastic volatility model structural break tests with unknown point, and a counterfactual simulation method to discuss the significant decline in inflation uncertainty in China over 1978-2009. We attempt to quantify the contributions of better monetary policy and smaller structural shocks （including demand, supply and policy impacts） on the reduced inflation uncertainty. Empirical results in the present paper suggest that improved monetary policy accounts for only a small fraction of the reduction in inflation uncertainty from the pre-1997 period to the post-1997 period in China. The bulk of the significant moderation in inflation uncertainty arises from smaller shocks. This finding indicates that the quiescence of inflation in China over the past decade could well be followed by a return to a more turbulent inflation era. Therefore, the use of preemptive monetary policy to anchor inflationary expectations and keep moderate inflation uncertainty is warranted.     

地方政府赤字财政下的物价控制与货币政策选择

货币经济学的一个基本观点就是,紧缩的货币政策能够降低通货膨胀,而扩张性的货币政策能够导致通货膨胀。费德斯坦指出,没有充分考虑财政政策的影响,这是货币经济学的严重缺陷。因此,文章结合我国当前的财政政策,探讨了在地方政府赤字财政下,中央银行如何控制和治理通货膨胀。文章认为,在地方政府赤字财政下,如果政府通过银行融资具有优先权的话,紧缩的货币政策不仅不能够控制通货膨胀,反而加速了通货膨胀。     

Low Inflation,Pass-through,and a Discrete Inflation-targeting Framework for Monetary Policy in China

The performance of inflation in China over the past few decades has been remarkable. This paper characterizes the statistical nature of the inflation series in China over the past quarter of a century and presents an interesting scenario of large decline in inflation pass-through accompanied with low inflation since the end of the 1990s. How should monetary policy in China be conducted under these new economic conditions? We propose a discrete inflation-targeting framework for monetary policy,which is likely to be suitable for the regime of low inflation and inflation pass-through. The advantages and caveats of adopting such a framework are also discussed.     

通胀率动态与通胀惯性度量

本文从通胀惯性的理论模型出发,构建无限状态Markov区制转移的计量模型,实现对通胀惯性的有效度量。对美国通胀惯性的实证分析,证实货币政策工具的频繁使用会付出通胀惯性的代价,暴露出其单一目标货币政策框架的缺陷。我国央行的调控也已经对市场利率形成了显著的传导作用,谨慎地使用货币政策工具,使我国的通胀惯性在被货币政策短暂影响后,得以有效恢复。这表明坚持实行多目标、多手段与宏观审慎政策相结合的调控模式,对维护经济环境稳定与长期发展的重要性。十国通胀惯性的度量结果与对比分析,进一步佐证了本文观点。     

Excess Liquidity and Inflation Dynamics in China： 1997-2007

The surge in international capital inflows and the remarkable excess liquidity in China between 1997and 2007are examined in the present paper. It is shown that China＇s improved position in terms of foreign exchange purchases, ignited by huge foreign capital inflows, has effectively induced excess liquidity in China. More importantly, by developing an econometric madel for inflation and excess liquidity, the present study demonstrates that excess liquidity has imposed significant pressure on inflation in China over the past 10 years. This finding suggests that excess liquidity in China has not only contributed to the rise in stock prices and the real estate market boom, but also affected the consumer goods market. The potential transmission mechanism of liquidity-driven inflation and policy implications of the findings of this study are discussed.     

信贷差异、内需扩张与通胀变化的关联度

实施应对金融危机的一揽子措施以来,各口径货币总量对CPI的预测能力明显下降,CPI回升速度显著低于依据历史经验测算出的货币增长对物价形成的压力。这一现象主要与货币供给结构变化有关。从信贷增长与内需在GDP增长中贡献度的关系来看,扩张性政策导致的信贷高增长并未明显超出内需扩张之所需,加之经济增长也并未超出其潜在水平,因此短期内没有产生明显的CPI通胀压力,但经济回升和货币信贷增长推升了通胀预期。鉴于通胀机理所发生的变化,宏观政策需要更多关注更广泛意义上的整体价格水平稳定,更多关注预期和环比数据变化以提高调控的前瞻性和有效性,同时要加强宏观审慎管理,多运用市场化和有弹性的政策工具实施调控。     

Inflation and globalisation: The Tawney Lecture 2022

The paper examines the causal relationships and interdependence between inflation and globalisation over centuries: in the sixteenth century, in the age of Spanish silver; then in the first age of modern globalisation from in the middle of the nineteenth century; and finally in the new globalisation that took off in the 1970s. In the latter cases, inflation was a response to a negative supply shock, and eventually generated policy decisions on economic opening. Both recent globalisations may be explained as technologically driven, and some of the most important productivity gains involved the cost of transport, but the fundamental innovations substantially pre-dated the moment at which they were economically transformative. Scarcity dramatically changes relative prices, but not the overall price level. Initially inflation became a policy solution, an attractive way of meeting the challenges of scarcity, but then its increasing costs became apparent, and more, rather than less, global integration looked like a way of reducing costs and minimising social pressure. Policy choices were involved in generating the globalised world: not only the removal of impediments to commerce, but also a consensus around a stable and internationally applicable monetary framework, whether the gold standard in the late nineteenth century or a modern inflation targeting regime in the late twentieth century.     

东南亚应对通货膨胀的经验与启示

面对2007年下半年以来不断恶化的通货膨胀形势,东南亚主要经济体积极运用市场干预政策、财政政策、货币政策等多种政策协调配合应对通货膨胀。短期内,东南亚的通货膨胀取决于国际大宗商品价格能否企稳和其国内政策能否稳定通货膨胀预期;长期内,则取决于社会生产技术发展水平和其企业对上游产品价格上涨的消化吸收能力。东南亚应对通货膨胀的经验与教训值得我们关注。     

Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Strategies: Evidence from Six Industrialized Countries

In this paper we address the issue whether a switch to inflation targeting can help build monetary policy credibility and can substitute for a track record of low inflation. To this end, we empirically evaluate the success of inflation targeting in Canada, New Zealand and the United Kingdom and investigate to what extent the joint dynamic processes of inflation and nominal interest rates in these three countries have experienced a structural break at the time of the regime switch to inflation targeting. The experience of Canada, New Zealand and the United Kingdom is matched with the United States, Australia and Germany. We find that the effectiveness of the direct inflation targeting approach to quickly increase low-inflation credibility so far is ambiguous and that this strategy is not clearly superior to intermediate monetary strategies.     

Optimal Contracts for Central Bankers: Inflation versus Money Supply and Exchange Rate Targets

Some recent papers have shown how a simple contract can eliminate the inflationary bias of discretionary monetary policy. This paper shows that if the central banker is risk averse, a contract in terms of money is superior to one in terms of inflation. The paper also shows that, if the central banker cares about his reappointment, an exchange rate target might always leads to the implementation of the optimal policy.