全球化对城市发展的影响与启示

分析了经济全球化对全球国家、城市与区域产生的影响,指出资金、商品、信息、人口的全球流动把全球经济紧密地联系在一起,促进了发展中国家的工业化与城市化进程,使城市各个方面产生深刻的变化,并演变为全球城市体系,城市已经成为国家参与全球竞争的核心力量;并结合中国的国情,指出中国的城市化应该走资源集约高效利用的城市化道路和低消耗、高效益的新型工业化道路,坚持区域统筹和城乡统筹,大力发展服务型城市和信息化城市。     

Testing the Stability of a Production Function with Urbanization as a Shift Factor

Urban economists have long sought to explain the relationship between urbanization levels and output. In this paper we revisit this question and test the long-run stability of a production function including urbanization using non-stationary panel data techniques. Our results show that a long-run relationship between urbanization, output per worker and capital per worker cannot be rejected for either our sample of 30 developing countries or our sample of 22 developed countries. We do find, however, that the sign and magnitude of the impact of urbanization varies considerably across the countries. In addition, we estimate the long-run average effects on GDPW of urbanization and capital. These results offer new insights and potential for dynamic urban models rather than the simple cross-section approach.     

生态文明视野下的中国工业化与城市化协调发展

改革开放以来,中国工业化取得了长足发展,但是.这种发展是以资源浪费、生态退化和环境污染为代价的,是不可持续的.工业化是城市化的基础,城市化是工业化的栽体,中国工业化的现状必定会影响到中国城市化的发展,亦决定中国城市化是否是可持续的.实现工业化与城市化的可持续、协调发展是中国走向现代化的必由之路.解决中国工业化、城市化进程中的生态环境问题,既要借鉴西方发达国家的经验,又不能完全照搬照抄,必须结合中国的实际和时代特征,制定符合中国实际的可持续协调发展之路.形成节约、环保、文明意识,不断进行科技创新,转变发展战略是实现工业化与城市化的可持续协调发展的关键.     

我国城市背街小巷环境卫生存在的问题及对策分析

在发展中国家贫民窟一直是城市化进程中的一大突出问题。在中国大大小小的城市中却存在着数不清的背街小巷,随着中国城市化进程不断快速发展,背街小巷基础设施差,环境卫生脏、乱、差,交通秩序混乱等问题同样日益突出。这是一个无法逃避的问题。也是我们必须重视的问题。     

URBANIZATION, URBAN CONCENTRATION AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

An international comparative study of the relations among the process of urbanization, urban concentration and economic development, and income distribution was performed by using data of developing and developed countries. Cross-section analyses at certain time periods for capturing "long-run" effects as well as time-series analyses for some countries for "short-run" effects were done taking advantage of the "rectangular" array of data. There were several interesting results: the pattern of unemployment rate in most developing countries shows an inverted-U shaped curve with respect to the degree of urbanization; the pattern of urban concentration is in the form of an inverted-U with respect to the economic development level; and the degree of inequality of income distribution seems to react in an inverted-U form to the variances in the extent of urbanization.     

Globalisation: A New Growth,New Trade Perspective

The current crisis in Asia has seen the case for more open economic policy come under attack in the developing world. In this article Michael Chui, Paul Levine, Mansoob Murshed, and Joseph Pearlman argue that any reversal of the trend towards globalisation would be a great mistake for policymakers. The association of openness with higher growth is one of the most robust empirical results in economics. Here we explore the mechanisms that explain this result. We argue that current high growth rates in Asia are unsustainable and there is a long-term as well as a short-term problem of ‘over-investment’ in Asia. However, we report research findings that show how international knowledge spillovers and free trade can enable the world economy to grow, the developing countries to progress, and the developed countries to benefit.     

巴西城市化模式的分析及启示

巴西是世界上经济较为发达的发展中国家,城市化水平相当高.但是,它的城市化先于工业化,属于过度城市化模式.20世纪30年代之前,巴西主要依靠外来移民推动其城市化进程,属于无工业化的城市化;之后,工业化起步,进一步加速了城市化的发展.但是,由于历史、政策等多方面原因,巴西在城市化过程中出现了区域不平衡和过度城市化、贫民窟等严重的城市问题.研究巴西城市化发展的经验和教训,对我国城市化进程中实现城乡协调和可持续发展具有一定的启示作用.     

Climatic change and rural–urban migration: The case of sub-Saharan Africa

We investigate the role that climatic change has played in the pattern of urbanization in sub-Saharan African countries compared to the rest of the developing world. To this end we assemble a cross-country panel data set that allows us to estimate the determinants of urbanization. The results of our econometric analysis suggest that climatic change, as proxied by rainfall, has acted to change urbanization in sub-Saharan Africa but not elsewhere in the developing world. Moreover, this link has become stronger since decolonization, which is likely due to the often simultaneous lifting of legislation prohibiting the free internal movement of native Africans.     

Does urbanization boost environmental impacts in Colombia? An extended STIRPAT–LCA approach

The relationship between urbanization and technological progress on environment, mainly CO2 emissions, has been extensively studied in the last decades; however, little effort has been made to understand such a relationships in developing countries. This work focuses on understanding the effects of urbanization and some technological factors on the Colombian electricity consumption. This topic is addressed from several environmental impact dimensions rather than solely focusing on CO2 emissions. An extended STIRPAT model, in combination with LCA approaches, was applied in a balanced panel dataset of 27 states, over the period of 2003 to 2018. Our findings suggest that urbanization is the major driver of electricity consumption and climate change in Colombia. Our results address the lack of information about this topic in developing countries and also, they contribute to understand the main features of emissions in Colombia and the key driving forces behind their environmental impacts. Finally and given the current trends on population and urban growth, we conclude with some recommendations aimed to relevant stakeholders.     

论城市科学学科体系的建设

依据国家城市化进展加速,城市经济已经成为国民经济的主体,中国城市化正面临着比发达国家和多数发展中国家更加复杂的背景和社会转型压力,论述了加快建设城市科学的重要意义.文章重点介绍了城市科学的学科构成、城市科学发展的现状、水平和存在问题,据此提出了我国城市科学建设的11个领域;中国城市化理论框架;转型期中国城市规划理论与方法;城市经济、城市土地与城市住房;区域经济、区域规划与区域政策;城市社会与城市社区;城市文化与城市史;城市快速、立体交通设计与物流综合;城市生态与环境;景观规划与设计;城市规划管理以及城市规划信息系统等.文章最后还对城市科学发展趋势进行了分析,并展望了中国城市科学发展的前景.     

INTERNAL MIGRATION IN TURKEY, 1965–1985: TEST OF CONFLICTING FINDINGS IN THE LITERATURE

The purpose of this paper is to bring new insights to some of the conflicting findings in the migration literature about developing countries by using detailed analyses of Turkish migration data. The possible reasons behind inconsistencies in the findings are explained in terms of spatial and temporal characteristics of the data, and by national macro factors (mainly the level of urbanization and the characteristics of the urban systems). Tested were rural out-migration and push factors; changes in the size of rural-to-urban and urban-to-rural return migration; the effect of distance; and the share and effect of rural-to-urban migration in the urban growth and in the unbalanced population distribution in developing countries.     

AN ANALYSIS OF PROJECTED URBAN INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT COSTS IN INDIA*

There is considerable apprehension concerning the cost of rapid urbanization in developing countries. However, actual costs of urbanization have seldom been computed. This paper provides a relatively simple procedure for making such cost estimates from information which is readily available from executing agencies involved in urban infrastructure projects in India. It is found that infrastructure costs are not systematically different for large and small cities. Differences in costs are more related to differences in physical factors such as geography, terrain, and climate, and especially to the different levels of service standards used. It is also found that the costs of replacement investment assume increasing significance with growing urbanization. Planning activities must therefore give greater emphasis to replacement investments than is generally the case. The main conclusion is that the cost of providing basic urban infrastructure in India can be kept within manageable limits in the foreseeable future provided that modest standards are maintained. The appropriate level of urban infrastructure investment should be roughly double the current level in India.     

中国城市化与经济增长的省际差异分析

采用聚类分析方法、相关分析方法和回归分析方法,对我国省际城市化水平与经济增长水平的差异进行定量分析,得出以下结论:总体来看,经济发展水平与城市化水平有着较密切的正相关关系;个别地区(如广东)的经济发展水平并不完全与城市化发展水平相适应,经济的发展是由其他因素促成的;天津的城市化水平已经接近极限,而北京和上海的城市化水平仍然有进一步发展的空间;对于落后地区来说,发展经济的重要性更重于狂热地进行城市化.     

城市综合体的发展过程分析

城市综合体是城市发展到一定阶段的必然产物。近几年来,城市综合体已在我国很多大城市开始盛行。本文首先阐述了城市综合体的概念和产生原因,并以城市化历程作为背景,分别追溯了西方国家和中国城市综合体的起源和发展,分析了城市综合体未来的发展趋势,从而揭示了产业革命、城市化和城市综合体之间的逻辑发展关系,以及城市综合体对城市发展的重要性。     

2001-2011年江西省生态足迹分析及预测

本文利用生态足迹模型、相关分析以及灰色预测模型对江西省的生态足迹进行分析。结果表明:2011年江西省的人均生态足迹比2001年增加了68.05%,为2.2366hm2/人;生态足迹与GDP、城镇化、居民消费水平及人口的相关系数均在0.94以上;预测得2012年江西人均GDP生态足迹为3659.247hm2,2019年为1798.4273hm2,即未来江西发展的不可持续状态将逐步得到改善。     

新型城镇化视角下开发性PPP的实施路径

中国已迈入高质量发展的新型城镇化阶段。随着政府职能转变和可融资空间的受限,传统的政府投资模式已经不可持续。近年来兴起的PPP模式在一定程度上缓解了基础设施建设的融资困境,对提高公共服务质量和效率产生了积极影响,但难以满足新型城镇化对整体性、协同性和系统性的要求。作为传统PPP模式在中国的创新性实践,开发性PPP基于产城融合、平台生态、多元共治、区域价值等理论,对主体功能设计、社会资本方遴选、项目运营管理以及区域协同发展等方面做出新的制度安排和策略选择,能更好地契合新型城镇化高质量发展的战略导向和现实需要。     

城市型社会背景下的城镇化:他国的经验与中国的选择

“十二五”期间,中国城市化率将突破50％,我国将加入城市型社会行列.本文通过对英国、美国、日本和巴西四个城市型国家城市化的考察,探究了城市型国家的共性特征.我国城镇化面临极其复杂的形势,应走质量型城市化道路,治理城市病,防止“被城市化”现象发生.     

新时期我国健康城市化的经济学解释及发展重点分析

目前,我国正处在城市化快速发展的阶段,农民市民化趋势与城市社会经济发展和城市承载能力之间产生了一系列的矛盾.本文针对目前在城市化理论研究和实践中存在的问题,从经济学视角对城市健康发展加以解释,得出健康城市化的经济学涵义,并提出了新时期我国健康城市化发展的重点.     

URBAN DEVELOPMENT ISSUES IN THE PACIFIC RIM

Using a broad definition of the Pacific Rim (including some countries in Latin America), this paper examines selected aspects of Pacific Rim urban development. Despite the overwhelming economic dominance of the United States and Japan, urbanization in Pacific Rim countries is very diverse. Yet growth in most large cities on the Rim is decelerating, suggesting a possible paradox of rapid economic growth coexisting with slower urban growth. Location on the Rim may be important only for certain types of economic interaction, i.e. those subject to distance decay rather than being transmitted electronically. The internationalization of urbanization in the Pacific Rim is open to benign rather than dependency interpretations, given that economic and social conditions are better in developing countries in this region than in the rest of the world. The large size of many Pacific Rim primate cities suggests the need for a polycentric spatial structure, and the issue is how much intervention and of what kind is needed to ensure that decentralization takes place efficiently. Transportation may be one sector where successful innovations are transferable from one city to another. Environmental quality is a serious but neglected problem in many Pacific Rim cities, but will become more important as incomes rise. It remains unclear whether Metropolitan Development Authorities or some other form of regional government are needed for efficient metropolitan government. The most distinctive feature of Pacific Rim urban development is the commonality of urban problems that arise in rapidly growing economies.     

Explaining the East Asia miracle: The role of urbanization

Defying the law of diminishing marginal returns, many countries experienced high rates of investment for a prolonged period of time during their take-offs. This paper represents a first attempt to explain this contradiction from the perspective of urbanization. Urbanization provides opportunities for investment and helps moderate the capital/labor ratio in the urban sector. In particular, it promotes knowledge accumulation through “learning by doing”. This can explain why the law of diminishing marginal returns to capital is not applicable to economies in the early period of their catching-up. More specifically, we construct a two-sector general equilibrium model incorporating urbanization and “learning by doing”, predicting that in the presence of urbanization, as long as the “learning by doing” effect is sufficiently large, capital return will depict an inverted U-shape as capital accumulates or urbanization proceeds. Empirical evidence from China confirms the theoretical prediction.