Empirical evidence of conditional asset pricing in the Indian stock market

Studies of various alternative empirical asset pricing models have mostly concentrated on developed markets. However, despite the importance of this issue, surprisingly little is known about how different asset pricing models behave in emerging capital markets. The purpose of this paper is to determine the suitability of conditional compared to unconditional versions namely, the capital asset pricing model and the Fama-French three-factor model for the Indian stock market. The key distinction between the present empirical tests and previous tests is the application of the Kalman filter method for dynamic beta estimation in the Indian market. The findings indicate that the cross-sectional variation in expected returns is driven by mainly two firm characteristics size and book-to-market ratio.Unlike the unconditional model, the market beta is able to capture the variation of expected return in conditional model. The results imply that information has a role and investors use the prior belief and macroeconomic variables as predictive variables to determine the cost of capital. These results are supported by some recent findings that Fama-French three-factor model is the only multifactor model that consistently sources three different types of risk included in the list of anomalies.     

Misvaluation comovement,market efficiency and the cross-section of stock returns: Evidence from China

In this study, we examine the relation between stock misvaluation and expected returns in China's A-share market. We measure individual stocks’ misvaluation based on their pricing deviation from fundamental values, following Rhodes-Kropf et al. (2005. J. Finan. Econ. 77 (3), 561) and Chang et al. (2013. J. Bank. Finance, forthcoming), and find that the measure has strong and robust return predictive power in the Chinese market. We further form a misvaluation factor and find that misvaluation comovement and systematic misvaluation exist in the Chinese market. A comparison of our results with those of Chang et al. (2013. J. Bank. Finance, forthcoming) reveals that the misvaluation effect is much stronger in the Chinese market than in the U.S market. This evidence is consistent with the notion that the Chinese market is much less efficient than the U.S. market. Finally, we show that the return predictive power of misvaluation has weakened since China launched its split-share structure reform in 2005, which could result from the fact that the reform helps to promote market efficiency.     

Long-term reactions to large stock price declines and increases in the European stock market: a note on market efficiency

This study tests for underreaction and overreaction in European large cap markets by examining the abnormal returns of those stocks in the EuroStoxx 50 Index following large price increases and decreases. We find that large price increases and declines tend to be followed by average market returns. Thus, our results support the efficient market theory, rather than any of the behaviour finance hypotheses. This insight is contrary to price patterns found in various national markets.     

制度条件、机构投资者与上市公司市场价值

上市公司市场价值是投资者获得投资收益的主要来源,公司市场价值的提升是投资者保护的重要体现。本文在制度分析的基础上,通过面板数据模型,实证分析中国机构投资者提升上市公司市场价值的制度条件。结果发现,机构投资者提升上市公司市场价值的作用受到机构持股数量和上市公司所有权性质的影响。较高的持股比例是机构投资者提升上市公司市场价值的重要条件;而上市公司的国有控制特征降低了机构投资者的上市公司价值提升作用,并且国有控制的这种限制作用主要来自地方控制的上市公司。上述研究发现,对理解发展机构投资者的经济后果具有重要意义,有助于更加深入地理解机构投资者提升上市公司市场价值的制度条件,也为投资者保护研究提供了一个有益的视角。     

Adaptive market hypothesis: The story of the stock markets and COVID-19 pandemic

Since the level of markets’ information efficiency is key to profiteering by strategic players, Shocks; such as the COVID-19 pandemic, can play a role in the nature of markets’ information efficiency. The martingale difference and conditional heteroscedasticity tests are used to evaluate the Adaptive form of market efficiency for four (4) major stock market indexes in the top four affected economies during the COVID-19 pandemic (USA, Brazil, India, and Russia). Generally, based on the martingale difference spectral test, there is no evidence of a substantial change in the levels of market efficiency for the US and Brazilian stock markets in the short, medium, and long term. However, in the long term, the Indian stock markets became more information inefficient after the coronavirus outbreak while the Russian stock markets become more information efficient. Intuitively, these affect the forecastability and predictability of these markets’ prices and/or returns. Thereby, informing the strategic and trading actions of stock investors (including arbitrageurs) towards profit optimization, portfolio asset selection, portfolio asset adjustment, etc. Similar policy implications are further discussed.     

Economic indicators and stock market volatility in an emerging economy

By analyzing the daily realized volatility series calculated from intraday stock price observations, this study examines the direct causality between one-day-ahead aggregate stock market volatility and several economic and financial indicators in the Korean market, a leading emerging market. Using the predictive regression and superior predictive ability tests, we find that the model-free implied volatility index (VKOSPI) and stock market indicators both lead the daily market volatility. However, daily economic indicators provide no predictive information beyond that contained in historical volatility. Though in-sample causality does not guarantee a better out-of-sample forecasting performance, the VKOSPI and combinations of predictors exhibit significant predictive ability regardless of the time period. Our study verifies the information role of the VKOSPI as an indicator of daily market risk.     

Value investing versus other investment strategies: A volatility spillover approach and portfolio hedging strategies for investors

Motivated by the incessant demand for portfolio diversification, this study examines the connectedness between value and diverse types of stocks (growth, momentum, ESG, high beta, classic S&P 500, volatility). The applied methodology encompasses the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) extension of the Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) framework for the period from 03/31/2011 to 03/31/2021. Results show moderate volatility transmissions among the sampled assets, which tend to escalate during periods of turmoil, such as the European Sovereign Debt Crisis, the plunge in oil prices and the COVID-19 outbreak. Growth and ESG stocks play an indispensable part in the transmission mechanism. Moreover, we investigate the hedging ability of value stocks within a portfolio containing other stocks, by estimating hedge ratios and optimal weights with the usage of conditional variance estimates (DCC-GARCH). The empirical findings reveal that value stocks can adequately hedge against the risk deriving from the volatility of the remaining investment instruments, especially in the case of high beta and volatility stocks. Thus, this analysis provides portfolio managers and investors with valuable insights in order for them to hedge their stock portfolios effectively.     

产品市场竞争与现金价值:掠夺理论还是代理理论

本文利用2000～2009年沪深两市上市公司的非平衡面板数据来考察产品市场竞争与现金价值之间的关系。检验结果表明,比行业竞争对手持有更多现金的企业具有较高的价值,垄断程度较高的行业企业所持现金的价值更高。基于倾向得分理论的检验结果表明垄断性行业子样本的现金价值显著高于竞争性行业子样本。进一步的检验结果表明成长性、市场化程度和现金持有量的区间效应因素并不影响文章的研究结论。这些实证结果都支持了掠夺理论的分析。     

Statistics of extreme events in risk management: The impact of the subprime and global financial crisis on the German stock market

Given the growing need for managing financial risk and the recent global crisis, risk prediction is a crucial issue in banking and finance. In this paper, we show how recent advances in the statistical analysis of extreme events can provide solid methodological fundamentals for modeling extreme events. Our approach uses self-exciting marked point processes for estimating the tail of loss distributions. The main result is that the time between extreme events plays an important role in the statistical analysis of these events and could therefore be useful to forecast the size and intensity of future extreme events in financial markets. We illustrate this point by measuring the impact of the subprime and global financial crisis on the German stock market in extenso, and briefly as a benchmark in the US stock market. With the help of our fitted models, we backtest the Value at Risk at various quantiles to assess the likeliness of different extreme movements on the DAX, S&P 500 and Nasdaq stock market indices during the crisis. The results show that the proposed models provide accurate risk measures according to the Basel Committee and make better use of the available information.     

浅析工程建设的采购模式对价值管理的影响

近年来,传统采购模式在价值管理中越来越不适用,暴露出不少问题。文中简单介绍了价值管理,以及其与采购模式的关系,并详细介绍了现行采购模式,特别是PFI(私人主动融资)采购模式在价值管理中的优势。     

Firm size,economic risks,and the cross-section of international stock returns

Recent empirical evidence from developed markets indicates a negative relation between value premium and firm size. We find that the value premium in small stocks is consistently priced in the cross-section of international returns, whereas the value premium in big stocks is not. Based on US data, we show that the small-stock value premium is associated with business cycle news and reflects changes in macroeconomic, especially credit market related risks. Our results hold true for regional and global equity markets and remain valid after controlling for firm characteristics and prominent profitability and investment factors.     

The VIX,the variance premium and stock market volatility

We decompose the squared VIX index, derived from US S&P500 options prices, into the conditional variance of stock returns and the equity variance premium. We evaluate a plethora of state-of-the-art volatility forecasting models to produce an accurate measure of the conditional variance. We then examine the predictive power of the VIX and its two components for stock market returns, economic activity and financial instability. The variance premium predicts stock returns while the conditional stock market variance predicts economic activity and has a relatively higher predictive power for financial instability than does the variance premium.     

COVID-19, ESG investing,and the resilience of more sustainable stocks: Evidence from European firms

Following the COVID-19 outbreak, orientation toward sustainability is a critical factor in ensuring firm survival and growth. Using a large sample of 1,204 firms in Europe during the year 2020, this study investigates how more sustainable firms fare during the pandemic compared with other firms in terms of risk–return trade-off and stock market liquidity. We also highlight the drivers of the resilience of more sustainable firms to the pandemic. Particularly, we document that higher levels of cash holdings and liquid assets in the pre-COVID period help these firms to perform and absorb the COVID-19 externalities better than other firms. Our results are robust to a host of econometric models, including GMM estimations and several measures of stock market performance. These findings contribute to the theoretical and empirical debate on the role of the sustainability as a source of corporate resilience to unexpected shocks.     

Broad-based stock options: before and after the market downturn

We examine labour productivity in small, medium and large firms that broadly distribute stock options under starkly different market conditions – during the bull (1995–7) and bear (2000–2) stock markets. We find greater labour output in both upward and downward markets in all firm size categories, with the exception of small firms in a declining market, where the productivity is also greater, but the statistical significance of the result is weak.     

Market volatility and illiquidity during the COVID-19 outbreak: Evidence from the Saudi stock exchange through the wavelet coherence approaches

The aim of this paper is to examine the explanatory power of realized volatility on the illiquidity in Saudi stock market during the COVID-19 outbreak. To achieve this objective, we consider the Wavelet Coherence approaches as empirical tools to investigate the combined effect of realized volatility and COVID-19 counts on the market illiquidity across frequencies and over time space by taking in account the number of infected cases in Saudi Arabia and over the World, and the number of death cases in Saudi Arabia as well as over the World. Our study reaches two main findings. First, the preliminary results reported by the ARDL bound test as a benchmark model showed significant long-run and short-run effects of the market volatility on illiquidity in contemporaneous and lagged manner. Second, the wavelet coherence analysis tools exhibited important results: (i) the wavelet coherency between illiquidity ratio and realized volatility in Saudi Arabia appear highly pronounced over all time horizons. (ii) PWC plots showed a significant mutual effect between liquidity risk and realized volatility when eliminating the effect of local COVID-19 cases. (iii) MWC plots highlighted that the response of the market illiquidity index to both the amplification in confirmed local cases (resp. international confirmed cases) and the stock market volatility appear significant in the short and middle horizons.     

Deposit structure,market discipline,and ownership type: Evidence from Indonesia

In this paper, we extend the literature on the discipline imposed by depositors on banks by disentangling the impact of macro risk and micro risk. We also take advantage of a unique dataset in which depositors are split into different categories of deposit size in different types of banks (bank ownership structure). We consider the Banking Stability Index, which is used by the Indonesia Deposit Insurance Corporation as a dashboard to monitor banking stability at the country level as well as individual stability measures such as the Z-score. Using monthly data from 2005 to 2013, our findings show that both macro and micro levels of risk are considered by depositors to discipline banks. Large uninsured depositors are more effective at disciplining banks, highlighting the credibility of the insurance system that is in place. Bank ownership type also matters in explaining the difference in market discipline by depositors.     

Vertical separation of transmission control and market efficiency in the wholesale electricity market

This study examines how vertical separation of transmission control affects the wholesale market efficiency in the electric power industry. We analyze a unique regional electricity wholesale market in the U.S. where initially restructuring only occurred in the transmission sector. Following a commonly-used best dispatch model (Wolfram, 1999; Borenstein et al., 2002), we simulate competitive benchmark prices and compare with the best estimates available for actual prices to measure price-cost markups of the wholesale market. Empirical results demonstrate that the vertical separation of transmission control led to a significant increase in market markups in peak-load hours, documenting evidence of enhanced market power. Although we also find a reduction in the price-cost margin in low-demand hours, we reserve caution for this finding.     

Lottery mindset,mispricing and idiosyncratic volatility puzzle: Evidence from the Chinese stock market

This study investigates the MAX effect regarding lottery mindset in the Chinese stock market. The MAX effect significantly affects stock returns through quintile portfolio and cross-sectional regression analyses. The most-overpriced stock groups, as categorized by mispricing index, show more support for the MAX effect. However, the idiosyncratic volatility (IVOL) effect continues regardless of consideration for the MAX effect, indicating that the MAX effect is not a source of the IVOL effect. Our results suggest that the MAX effect, which is highly relevant for overpriced stocks, might have information for determining stock price, and appears to be independent from information of the IVOL effect in the Chinese stock market.     

Modelling conditional skewness: Heterogeneous beliefs,short sale restrictions and market declines

This paper tests the relationship among heterogeneous beliefs, short sale restrictions and time-varying conditional skewness under different market conditions. The results show that heterogeneous beliefs and short sale restrictions have negative impacts on conditional skewness during periods of market decline but have negative, positive or no impacts during periods of market growth. This evidence reconciles conflicting evidence in recent empirical studies on the relationship among heterogeneous beliefs, short sale restrictions and conditional skewness.     

Modelling and forecasting stock returns: exploiting the futures market,regime shifts and international spillovers

This paper proposes a vector equilibrium correction model of stock returns that exploits the information in the futures market, while allowing for both regime‐switching behaviour and international spillovers across stock market indices. Using data for three major stock market indices since 1989, we find that: (i) in sample, our model outperforms several alternative models on the basis of standard statistical criteria; (ii) in out‐of‐sample forecasting, our model does not produce significant gains in terms of point forecasts relative to more parsimonious alternative specifications, but it does so both in terms of market timing ability and in density forecasting performance. The economic value of the density forecasts is illustrated with an application to a simple risk management exercise. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.