基于有界协整方法的中国进口需求弹性研究

有界检验是由Pesaran等(2001)新提出的一种协整分析方法,本文利用这一方法对改革开放以来中国进口贸易与其决定因素之间的长期关系和需求弹性进行了分析。结果表明,无论是长期还是短期,中国的进口需求相对于价格缺乏弹性,但相对于收入具有较高的弹性。这一结论具有重要的政策含义:其一,某些国家力图通过促使人民币升值来缓解其贸易赤字的做法是缺乏论据支持的;其二,中国经济的增长是世界经济的积极贡献因素。     

基于边界检验的中国谷物进口需求研究

文章在边界检验的基础上建立进口需求函数的UECM模型,研究了我国谷物进口对收入与相对价格的短期和长期弹性,结果发现玉米和大麦进口对收入和相对价格具有长期均衡的关系。从4个国家进口不同谷物产品长期收入弹性系数均为负,相对价格均为正;我国从美国进口玉米的短期相对价格弹性和从法国进口小麦的长期收入弹性都明显较大,即我国对美国和法国谷物进口较敏感;而从泰国进口水稻和从澳大利亚进口大麦的进口收入和相对价格弹性相对较小,即我国对泰国和澳大利亚谷物进口不论短期还是长期均不敏感,并保持相对稳定,从满足国内谷物需求的角度看,我国应与这两个国家建立长期稳定的贸易合作关系。     

进口贸易促进广东省经济增长的实证分析——基于需求结构的分析

运用国民收入恒等式建立一个包括投资、消费、进出口方程的联立方程组模型,系统地对广东省进口和经济增长之间的关系做了分析,结果表明进口通过与投资、消费、投资领域的互动效应引致经济增长。     

中国纸品类市场现状及市场前景分析

通过对我国纸品供需现状的介绍,从定性上介绍经济发展水平与纸及纸板消费的关系;通过建立计量经济模型从定量上得出我国经济发展与对纸品消费的关系;通过计量模型预测出我国未来的市场容量。     

The impact of parallel market exchange rate volatility and oil exports on real GDP in Syria: Evidence from the ARDL approach

This paper investigates the impact of parallel market exchange rate volatility and trade on real GDP and real GDP growth in the Syrian economy over the period of 1990Q1–2010Q4. To this end, we first construct a parallel market exchange rate volatility indicator. Second, we estimate an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model where we include our indicator of volatility among the main determinants of real GDP. Our findings imply that real GDP can be explained by three main variables: parallel market exchange rate, money supply, and oil exports. The long-run equilibrium reveals that parallel market exchange rate volatility has a negative impact on real GDP compared to the positive impact of money supply and oil exports. In contrast, the short-run impact of parallel market exchange rate volatility on real GDP growth is positive and very small counter to the long-run impact. Furthermore, the coefficient of the error correction term of the estimated ARDL model indicates that real GDP deviation from the equilibrium level will be corrected by about 10% after each quarter.     

Do fluctuations in crude oil prices have symmetric or asymmetric effects on the real exchange rate? Empirical evidence from Indonesia

Current research on the oil price impacts on exchange rates typically relies on the assumption that fluctuations in crude oil prices have symmetric impacts on a country's real exchange rate. Thus, the contribution of the paper is to use the non‐linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method of Shin, Yu, and Greenwood‐Nimmo (2014) and examine whether crude oil prices are asymmetrically passed on to the real exchange rate in the case of Indonesia. We uncover that oil price changes indeed asymmetrically affect the Indonesian rupiah in both the long and short run; i.e., the movement in the Indonesian rupiah appears to be more responsive to rising oil prices than to declining oil prices.     

进口贸易与广东经济增长的动态传递机制——基于需求结构联立方程模型的分析

文章依据凯恩斯宏观总量模型建立一个包括投资、消费、进出口的联立方程组,系统地对广东省进口和经济增长之间的动态反馈效应做了分析,结果表明进口通过与投资、消费、贸易领域的互动效应引致经济增长,进口对广东省GDP增长的拉动度和贡献率平均为11.70%和4.23%。     

Assessment of the Economic Benefits From U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF)’s Marketing Investment in South Korea

In 2007, the United States and South Korea agreed for partial access of U.S. beef to South Korea under the Korea–U.S. (KORUS) FTA concession, and started to import sizable U.S. beef to South Korea in 2008 despite some negative sentiments of Korean consumers for U.S. beef due to the safety concerns. From 2011 to 2015, the USMEF is scheduled to invest approximately US$10 million on promotion of U.S. beef in South Korea. Thus, it is important to access effectiveness of USMEF promotional strategies and to justify accountability of its marketing investment in the Korean beef market. The objective of this study is to estimate the economic impact of USMEF marketing investment for beef on U.S. beef performance in South Korea. The study determines the effectiveness of USMEF’s generic beef market development and promotion program in South Korea, by developing an econometric import demand model for U.S. beef and eliciting benefit–cost ratio (BCR) of USMEF’s promotion investment. From this analysis, (1) the relationships between selected uncontrollable and controllable economic variables and the U.S. beef demand in South Korea are assessed; and (2) with BCR simulation analysis, the return on promotion investment (ROI) of USMEF is derived.     

我国房价与银行信贷关系研究——基于面板数据的边限协整分析

房价在历史上的信贷危机中大都表现出巨大的起伏变化,在本次美国爆发的次贷危机中尤为明显。从理论上来说,房价与银行信贷之间存在多层次的双向因果关系,但目前国内外的相关研究却相对缺乏且结论不一。因此,文章结合相关面板数据分析我国房价与银行信贷间的联动关系,并从货币政策、银行经营及监管等角度探讨维护金融稳定的措施。     

What does the Chinese market need? An empirical study of the determinants of Chinese imports, 1996–2008

This study provides an in-depth analysis of the determinants of import demand in China through a multilevel approach. Using disaggregated data over 1996–2008 and a dynamic panel model, we find that the Chinese import market is predominantly characterized by quality competition. However, the nature of the competition varies across different industries. In line with theory, quality plays an important role in industries that are characterized by the potential for quality improvement and product differentiation, whereas price is key in industries in which quality and product differences are rather small. Moreover, private consumption expenditure is more influential than other categories of expenditures. Additionally, variables that can influence the relative price of import products, such as the exchange rate, tariffs and the domestic price index, also have an impact on import demand.     

广东应对反倾销的战略选择

为应对国际上的反倾销等贸易摩擦,广东省必须把目光投向更远的视野范围,更高的目标层次,顺应经济发展的客观规律,加大对外投资力度;将以“比较优势”和“要素禀赋”不同而形成的传统的产业间贸易模式,逐步向产业内贸易为主转移;继续扩大进口和内需,从根本上改变“以出口为导向”的单一模式;在优化有形产品进出口的同时,大力促进文化产品、教育产品、科技产品、专利产品、旅游产品、物流产品、金融产品等等无形产品的出口。     

Effects of Export Duty Structure on the Performance of the Malaysian Palm Oil Industry

This study examines the impact of the abatement of the export duty on the Malaysian palm oil industry performance. The simulation results show that the impact of reductions in the export duty rates and the impact of increases in the threshold prices on the Malaysian palm oil industry have the same impact but with different magnitudes. Even the simulated results indicate that the policy of further reductions in the Malaysian export duty will promote its positive effects on the local palm oil industry; however, the impact is shown to not be significant. The further reduction of the export tax is very constrained and believed to no longer be the most effective policy in enhancing the competitiveness of local palm oil industry in the future. Hence, policymakers have to be aware of the possibility that the reduction of the export tax may no longer be an effective sustainable approach in facilitating the development of Malaysian palm oil industry.     

我国农产品进口与农民收入变化的实证分析

本文采用我国1981-2003年农产品进口和农民收入变化的数据,对农产品进口和农民收入变化之间的关系进行了格兰杰因果检验。研究结果表明,两者在短期内不存在格兰杰因果关系,但在长期内却存在双向格兰杰因果关系。     

外商直接投资对浙江省进出口贸易影响的实证分析

选用1992-2006年浙江进出口贸易和外商直接投资的数据,通过建立计量模型,就外商直接投资对浙江进出口贸易的影响,从总量、结构及贸易效益三方面进行分析。研究表明,外商直接投资对浙江省进出口贸易总额存在积极的拉动效应,对进出口商品构成产生明显的影响作用,通过提高加工贸易比重改变了浙江省的贸易方式结构,还在一程度上促进了浙江外贸竞争力的提高。同时也发现浙江省对外贸易与外资引进中仍存在一些问题,并针对这些问题提出解决对策。     

我国进口贸易与经济增长关系的协整分析

通过采用协整和误差修正模型的Granger因果关系检验的方法,分析了1952-2002年间进口贸易与经济增长之间的关系。研究表明我国进口与GDP之间存在着双向的Granger因果关系和协整关系;并运用EG两步法建立二者之间的误差修正模型,得出了进口对经济增长的短期和长期作用。