Endogenous sources of path generation in a path dependent industry

This paper investigates and conceptualises industry endogenous sources of innovation in a context of path dependency. With an embedded case study of the mature multi-technology lighting industry, it considers two cases of technology generation (fluorescent lamps and light-emitting diodes) that have occurred under the dominance of established incandescent technology. The results demonstrate the existence of common driving forces (variety of performance criteria and variety of lighting applications) behind the development of the existing path and the generation of two new paths. Such common driving forces indicate the existence of a reactive sequence or a logical causal relationship between the existing and the new paths, which serve as an enabling mechanism in endogenous path generation.     

路径依赖视角下先进制造业数字化转型组态路径研究

基于演化经济地理学领域的路径依赖理论、路径突破理论和区域产业演化路径模型,构建先进制造业发展路径模型,结合TOE理论框架,从组态视角构建先进制造业数字化转型驱动因素模型,运用模糊集定性比较分析法对收集汇总的27份先进制造企业数据进行分析,应用先进制造业发展路径模型,从路径依赖视角探讨组态路径检验结果。研究表明,各维度任意单一前因条件均不能单独促成先进制造企业数字化转型;技术关联度和环境适应度在先进制造企业数字化转型过程中起重要作用;与其它类型路径相比,突破型组态路径更有可能实现先进制造企业数字化转型,依赖型组态路径并不能促进先进制造企业数字化转型的实现。     

中国区域自主创新能力影响因素计量分析

提高自主创新能力,建立创新型国家已经成为我国的基本战略。针对国内外学者对于区域自主创新能力影响因素的归纳和总结,建立区域创新能力影响因素的概念模型,并且结合我国2007年科技年鉴数据对这些因素进行计量分析,综合考虑了数据量纲问题、异方差问题和多重共线性的影响,通过模型的检验,最终确立了影响我国区域自主创新能力因素的计量经济学模型,通过对模型结果的分析为提升我国区域自主创新能力提供一定的政策借鉴。     

MODELING AND MEASURING THE ECONOMIC ROLES OF TECHNOLOGY INFRASTRUCTURE

Designing and managing an economy's technology infrastructure requires both accurate economic models and data to drive them. Previous models treat technology as a homogeneous entity, thereby precluding assessing investment barriers affecting infrastructure elements. The model presented overcomes this deficiency by disaggregating the knowledge production function into key elements of the typical industrial technology based on the distinctly different investment incentives associated with each element. Without such a model, the economist's ability to assess important market failures associated with investment in the major technology elements, including those with infrastructure (public-good) characteristics, is compromised. Unfortunately, even with the correct knowledge production function, the required data are difficult to collect. This forces government agencies, which fund a majority of technology infrastructure research, to use second-best approaches for economic analyses. The second half of this paper therefore presents an analytical framework that can be driven by more accessible data and provide reasonable impact assessments until better data become available.     

Path dependence in net migration during the ICT boom and two other growth periods: the case of Finland, 1980-2013

This paper examines the path dependence of net migration surpluses and deficits by Finnish municipalities in the period of 33 years. Such spatial clustering revealed by spatial autocorrelation represents the spatial formations in which the development indicated by migration is statistically similar over the municipal borders. The results of survival analysis indicate that the chronic centripetal tendency of development generates higher path probabilities of a municipality staying in a surplus formation located in the main urban regions and an increased lock-in tendency compared with deficit formations in peripheries. Thus, the growth processes seem to translate into the self-reinforcing spatial formations of growth and decline in population, production and regional competitiveness suspended by economic downturns and recessions, and so this path dependence is cyclic and recurring, which means that paths constitute relatively short pulses. In the great surge of Information and Communication Technology industries in the 1990s, the spatial formations of migration were higher in volume and path-dependent, but against expectations, spatially less stable compared with more modest growth periods.     

技术路线图概念的拓展与延伸——基于企业创新视角的创新路线图分析

在文献回顾的基础上,归纳分析了技术路线图的局限性,并结合科技实践需求以及系统论、企业战略管理理论、企业创新管理理论等相关理论,阐明了创新路线图概念是技术路线图概念的发展。研究表明:创新路线图是企业创新管理领域的一个新概念,可将之看成是技术路线图概念的拓展与延伸,创新路线图包含的研究要素、运用的工具性方法以及具备的功能用途都多于技术路线图。     

企业原始创新驱动路径研究——基于TOE框架的组态分析

企业原始创新是解决科技“卡脖子”问题的重要手段，也是推动科技自立自强的重要举措。在TOE框架下，结合现阶段企业原始创新特点，提出分析企业原始创新绩效差异的整合性框架，并采用fsQCA方法进行深入分析。结果表明，实现企业高原始创新的组态路径有5条，分别是技术与市场主导下的技术管理与原始创新氛围驱动型、技术与市场主导下依托政策的高管支持与技术管理驱动型、技术与市场主导下的原始创新氛围与政策驱动型、技术主导下依托政策的技术管理与组织因素驱动型以及市场主导下依托技术管理的原始创新氛围与高管支持驱动型；从企业高原始创新组态路径中发现，技术、组织和环境3个层面要素之间具有互补替代关系，可为处于不同场景下的企业获取高原始创新绩效提供有益参考；导致企业非高原始创新的组态路径有两条，且都包括非高技术能力、非高程度高管支持、非高市场导向和非高政策导向，表明技术、组织和环境层面要素的缺失导致企业原始创新绩效不高。结论可为驱动企业原始创新提供重要理论依据。     

基于产业创新系统的中、印、日技术赶超案例分析

通过回顾产业创新系统理论的研究文献,发现可将影响产业技术赶超路径的因素分为3个层面——知识技术、参与主体以及制度法规。结合产业技术赶超的作用路径,构建了机制模型,并以印度制药产业、中国生物产业、日本电子产业为例展开分析。结果表明:不同产业对知识技术投入、参与主体协同、制度法规制定的倚重程度不同;只有根据各产业的特点来选择技术赶超路径,才能充分发挥产业创新系统的驱动作用,实现技术赶超。     

市场导向驱动企业绿色技术创新模型构建与路径分析

基于对企业绿色技术创新环境和驱动力转换介质的分析，构建企业绿色技术创新基本要素模型，并给出要素的内涵特征及所遵循的准则，阐述了市场导向对企业绿色技术创新的影响路径。结果显示，企业绿色技术创新发生于系统环境中，并以系统收益最大化为目标，市场化机制是其驱动力转换的重要介质。基础知识突破、企业社会资本积累、产品市场需求、企业创新网络、消费主体意识、市场准入时机及政府政策是企业绿色技术创新要素模型的重要构成。构建和优化企业绿色技术创新基本要素模型必须遵守适合性准则、动态性、干预性及系统性准则，而释放绿色技术创新要素供需信号，促进创新所需要素协同，降低企业绿色技术创新交易成本，提高创新要素配置效率是市场导向影响企业绿色技术创新的主要路径。     

对外直接投资逆向技术溢出的行业内与行业间路径检验——基于对空间计量方法的嫁接

创造性地对空间计量经济学中的空间相关性思想进行嫁接利用,在思路方法上进行开拓,构建反映同行业内企业间相互联系与各行业间相互关联的空间权重矩阵,建立空间杜宾模型,并以制造业为例,对ODI逆向技术溢出效应的行业内和行业间路径进行实证检验。对行业内路径的检验表明,企业全要素生产率受到同行业内其它企业ODI活动的影响,行业内企业通过ODI促进自身技术进步之后,又通过企业间各种竞争合作关系促进同行业其它企业生产率提高,行业内路径由此得以验证。对行业间路径的检验表明,各行业通过ODI促进本行业技术进步之后,又通过行业间前向与后向产业关联,对其它关联行业的技术进步和生产率提高起到促进作用,且产业完全关联下的促进作用大于直接关联,由此行业间路径得以验证。     

中小企业技术创新研究初探

技术创新已经成为企业核心竞争能力的关键要素以及促进传统产业升级的主导力量,但是成功的技术创新可以为企业带来相对于竞争对手的显著竞争优势和定价权,而失败的技术创新必将给创新企业带来惨重损失。这就需要从技术创新的概念出发明确认识技术创新的模式及分类,以及企业核心能力的概念,在企业实施技术创新战略时作出正确的路径选择。     

TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE,HUMAN CAPITAL STRUCTURE,AND MULTIPLE GROWTH PATHS*

This paper presents a theoretical model to analyze the effects of technology change on growth rates of income and human capital in the uncertain environments of technology. The uncertainty comes from two sources: the possibility of a technology advance and the characteristics of new technologies. We set up an overlapping generations model in which young agents invest in both width and depth of human capital in order to adopt new technologies. The model develops explicitly the micro‐mechanism of the role of human capital in adopting new technologies as well as that of the process of human capital production in the uncertain environments. In our model, a higher level of width of human capital relative to the level of depth leads one country to a higher growth path. We also show that an economy can have different growth paths depending on the initial structure of human capital and the uncertainty about the nature of new technologies. In particular, new technologies with more uncertain characteristics may adversely affect human capital accumulation and income growth, leading the economy to a low growth trap.     

Assessing the technology contribution to value added

Technology and knowledge are two key components for economic growth; however, the two concepts are not consensually defined. This paper proposes a model to assess and quantify the technology contribution to the value-adding process. The methodological approach implied building an operational concept for technology that is independent of the concepts of knowledge and capital. As such, technology could be interpreted and quantified as an input parameter in a new production model. This model interprets and assesses, separately, the value contributions of the uses of technology, of knowledge and of capital in a production process, defining the Technology Index for that process. The model is applied to manufacturing sectors of seven European countries, quantifying their respective dependences on technology. A comparison of the Technology Index proposed here is made with the OECD's Technology Intensity factor, arguing that the former reflects the technology dependence better that the latter. Accordingly, a criterion for classifying the economic sectors' dependence on technology is proposed. A main contribution from this study is an objective classification criterion for technology dependence of firms and economic sectors. It also provides an easy benchmark procedure for knowledge and capital dependence between firms and sectors.     

专利家族视角下技术演化路径依赖研究——以光刻技术为例

以专利家族为研究视角,阐述技术路径动态演化过程中的路径依赖。专利家族自引会对技术主路径造成干扰,通过对主路径进行调整,提出一种修正技术主路径的新思路。研究发现：光刻技术在“投影对准和曝光系统—浸没式投影物镜—浸没式光刻材料—光刻胶”4个阶段经历了“路径消解—路径产生与路径依赖—路径消解与突破”的动态演化过程。在此过程中,以荷兰阿斯麦、德国蔡司和日本东京电子为代表的专利家族发挥重要作用。其中,以阿斯麦为核心的利益联盟垄断核心技术,强化光刻技术发展的路径依赖作用,占据市场领先地位。研究结论有助于深化对路径依赖理论的认知,通过揭示光刻技术路径演化过程及企业演化格局,为后发国家突破技术路径依赖提供实践启示。     

技术能力、路径依赖与技术赶超研究

分析了技术领先地区（国）和技术落后地区（国）之间的技术溢出效应,基于Verspagen模型,建立了基于技术能力和路径依赖的技术赶超模型。研究表明,后发地区（国）实现技术差距缩小和技术赶超的关键不仅在于自身技术能力的提高,还要打破路径依赖的锁定效应;后发地区（国）不可忽视经济主体“有意识的行为”,实现从路径依赖到路径创新的演化。因此,后发地区（国）一方面要培育自身技术能力,另一方面要提高经济主体的创新意识和创新能力,尽快摆脱技术对路径依赖的负面影响,实现技术赶超。     

组态视角下商业银行数字化转型路径研究 ——基于创新生态系统的联动效应分析

在数据成为现实生产要素,数字技术与传统产业创新融合的大背景下,商业银行的数字化转型也日益受到学界和政界的关注。为合理匹配问题与方法,基于创新生态系统理论,运用模糊集定性比较分析(fsQCA)和NCA必要性检验方法,以29家上市银行(截至2018年底)为样本,根据国资委依据团体标准T/AIITRE 10001—2020《数字化转型参考架构》所确定的数字化转型六大新型能力及其所对应的创新生态要素,探析创新生态要素组态耦合效应对商业银行数字化转型质量的影响路径及背后的复杂因果机制。结果发现：(1) 主体能力(数字人才)、载体能力(数字渠道)、过程能力(数字组织)、对象能力(数字市场)、合作能力(数字伙伴)、技术能力(数字技术)均不是单独产生商业银行高数字化转型质量的必要条件；(2)存在3条驱动商业银行高数字化转型质量的模式：“渠道+组织”双轮驱动的点轴发展模式、“市场+伙伴”要素聚合的多极网络模式、“人才+技术”双重挖潜的业务极核模式；(3)存在4条驱动商业银行非高数字化转型质量的路径,根据核心驱动因素将其归纳为“渠道+技术”抑制型和“渠道+伙伴”抑制型两种类型。本文从创新生态系统组态视角审视商业银行“数字+”转型路径,使用QCA方法“由果溯因”的探究创业生态要素的协同耦合对于商业银行数字化转型质量的影响路径,研究发现对揭示商业银行数字化转型的多重实现路径具有重要理论与现实意义。启发商业银行基于创新生态在数字经济时代对自身重新定位并基于禀赋优势探索更具生命力和适应性的数字化转型路径,为商业银行数字化转型提供路径对标和政策建议。     

A nonsmooth, nonconvex model of optimal growth

This paper analyzes the nature of economic dynamics in a one-sector optimal growth model in which the technology is generally nonconvex, nondifferentiable, and discontinuous. The model also allows for irreversible investment and unbounded growth. We develop various tools to overcome the technical difficulties posed by the generality of the model. We provide sufficient conditions for optimal paths to be bounded, to converge to zero, to be bounded away from zero, and to grow unboundedly. We also show that under certain conditions, if the discount factor is close to 1, any optimal path from a given initial capital stock converges to a small neighborhood of the golden rule capital stock, at which sustainable consumption is maximized. If it is maximized at infinity, then as the discount factor approaches 1, any optimal path either grows unboundedly or converges to an arbitrarily large capital stock.     

中国制造业转型升级与新微笑曲线理论

鉴于中国制造业转型升级支持理论的不足,将科技水平变量引入传统微笑曲线模型,发现传统微笑曲线理论和倒微笑曲线理论仅描述了产业链附加值分布图的一部分,只有两者结合才能构成完整的微笑曲线理论,即新微笑曲线理论。此外,基于新微笑曲线理论,提出对中国制造业转型升级的3个重要启示：①无论选择哪一条转型升级路径,加大科技投入、进行科技创新及提升科技水平均是中国制造业实现转型升级的根本路径;②价值链高端和低端的划分实际上是一个动态变化的概念,只要加大生产制造环节的科技投入,积极进行科技创新,大幅提升其科技水平,在一定条件下,产业链生产制造环节也能处于价值链高端;③对于当前大多数中国制造企业而言,其转型升级路径是直接在生产制造环节进行转型升级而非沿着产业链向两端攀升。     

实现技术进步型经济增长的条件、路径和策略研究——基于人力资本投资的视角

提高创新效率和人力资本投资效率,采取渐进式技术进步以及经济危机的爆发和环保要求的提高等等,都可以激励企业家创新和劳动者的人力资本投资,使人力资本与技术进步形成一个良性循环,这决定了技术进步型经济增长的实现。随着创新和人力资本投资的不断进行,生产模式将不断更新,那么前后相继新旧生产模式的生产曲线的包络线就构成了经济增长的路径。发展中国家依靠技术模仿,可以发挥"后发优势"而实现短期高速增长,但是这种增长模式很难持续。采用技术模仿与技术创新相结合的技术进步方式,才是发展中国家实现长期增长和经济赶超的最佳策略。     

突破性技术创新:理论综述与研究展望

首先通过溯源和梳理关于突破性技术创新的现有研究文献,从技术能力和商业模式的维度划分创新类型,辨析了不同类型创新的共性与差异,并基于技术变革与商业变革重塑突破性技术创新的概念内涵。然后基于"过程"视角对突破性技术创新的形成机理与演化路径进行梳理和凝练,剖析了突破性技术创新从技术概念设想或创意构想乃至市场实现的价值脉络,明晰了突破性技术创新的高度不确定性、非连续性和非线性的本质。最后分析研究结果,并对未来研究进行展望。