The estimated ex ante economic impact of Bt cowpea in Niger,Benin and Northern Nigeria

Genetically modified (GM) crops could increase economic growth and enhance living standards in Africa, but political issues have slowed the use of biotechnology. This is the first study that assesses the potential impact of GM crops in Africa while considering the preferences of producers and consumers towards GMOs as well as the income and price risks they face. The study uses a choice experiment to estimate the ex ante economic impact of a novel technology, Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) cowpea, on producers and consumers in Benin, Niger and northern Nigeria. The experiment involves the simulation of a market transaction similar to those in open air markets in West Africa. During the market simulation, respondents are informed about the advantages and disadvantages, including health risks, of Bt cowpea. The results from the study suggest that cowpea growers and consumers in Benin and northern Nigeria prefer Bt to conventional cowpea for health safety reasons. The results estimate that social welfare in Benin, Niger and northern Nigeria would increase by at least US$11.82 per capita annually with Bt cowpea, if seed sectors are operating smoothly. With inefficiencies in seed sectors and the potential for cowpea acreage increase, the estimated social welfare increase in the region would be about US$1.26 per capita annually.     

Collective livestock research for sustainable disease management in Mali and Burkina Faso

An international multi-disciplinary team of scientists, led by the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), tackled the problem of bovine trypanosomosis and the development of drug resistance in West Africa, inter alia, by the promotion of rational drug use (RDU) principles. These principles had been brought to farmers by practical training and by the provision of information leaflets. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of RDU training at smallholder level with respect to advances in farmers' knowledge and farm productivity before research outputs could be scaled up. Therefore, 508 cattle farmers attended a disease-specific knowledge test and provided information about farm production. Results show that farmers who participated in the training are more likely to identify signs and causes of the disease and to correctly administer drugs. Allocating scores to each question in the knowledge tests and scrutinizing the differences between trained and untrained farmers by matching procedures shows that participating farmers reach higher scores in all knowledge categories. Moreover, the acquisition of additional knowledge and the application of improved control strategies significantly increase farm performance. Additionally, an allocative effect was identified since trypanocide expenditures were saved by less expensive inputs.     

The economic impact of bean disease resistance research in Honduras

This paper presents evidence of recent adoption rates of disease resistant bean varieties (RVs), the farm‐level benefits of RV adoption, and the ex post rate of return to disease resistant bean research in Honduras. Results from a farm‐level survey in 2001 in the two principal bean‐producing regions of the country show that 41–46% of bean farmers (depending upon the season) have adopted an RV, and that adoption is neutral with respect to farm‐size and market orientation. An expected utility framework was used to estimate the farm‐level benefits of RV adoption, using a combination of experimental trial and farm‐level survey data. Adopters gain the equivalent of 7–16% (depending on the variety) in bean income from the yield loss averted through RV use. The ex post rate of return to disease resistant bean research in Honduras from 1984 to 2010 is 41.2%.     

Measuring impacts and adaptations to climate change: a structural Ricardian model of African livestock management1

This article develops a new cross‐sectional methodology that explicitly incorporates adaptation into an analysis of the impacts of climate change. The methodology examines how a farmer will change choices of species and number to adapt to climate. The approach is applied to study Africa, where the impacts of climate change are expected to be the most severe. The results indicate that in warmer places, African farmers switch from beef cattle to more heat‐tolerant goats and sheep. In wetter places, farmers switch from cattle and sheep to goats and chickens. The results indicate that large commercial livestock operations specializing in beef cattle will be hard hit from climate change whereas small farmers who can easily substitute to goats and/or sheep will be more resilient.     

A household hedonic model of rice traits: economic values from farmers in West Africa

New crop varieties often have been promoted in developing countries based upon superior yield vis-a-vis locally available varieties. This research presents a hedonic price model for upland rice by drawing upon the input characteristics and consumer good characteristics model literature. Model specification tests determine that a combination of production and consumption characteristics best explains the willingness to pay for new upland rice varieties. The household model specification determined that five traits explain the willingness to pay for new rice varieties: plant cycle length, plant height, grain colour, elongation/ swelling and tenderness. Yield was not a significant explanatory variable of the willingness to pay for seed. The implications of this model are two-fold. First, varietal development and promotion must include post-harvest characteristics in addition to production traits when determining which varieties to promote for official release. Secondly, non-yield production characteristics such as plant height and cycle length are significant factors in producer's assessments of the value of a new variety. Overall, this paper provides an alternative explanation for limited adoption of modern upland rice varieties in West Africa: varietal evaluation programs have focused too narrowly on yield evaluation and have not promoted varieties with superior non-yield characteristics than locally available varieties.     

Food crops, exports, and the short-run policy response of agriculture in Africa

The response of agriculture to changes in relative prices is an important factor in the success of structural adjustment programs in Africa. In this paper I estimate supply functions for total agricultural output, food crops and export crops in 14 African countries for the years 1975 to 1990. Food and export crops are substitutes in production in the short run. Total agricultural output responds negatively to increases in export prices and positively to increases in food prices. A plausible explanation is that as farmers shift resources to export crop production, food supply falls in the short run, while the increase in export supply may take several years to materialize. The exchange rate is significant in explaining both food and export crop production and aggregate agricultural supply, suggesting that the exchange rate is acting as a proxy for excluded macroeconomic variables or that changes in the exchange rate are not passed immediately through to prices.     

Gender and conservation agriculture in East and Southern Africa: towards a research agenda

It is remarkable that despite wide-ranging, in-depth studies over many years, almost no conservation agriculture (CA) studies consider gender and gender relations as a potential explanatory factor for (low) adoption rates. This is important because CA demands new ways of working with the farm system. Implementation will inevitably involve a reallocation of men's and women's resources as well as having an impact upon their ability to realize their gender interests. With respect to intra-household decision-making and the distribution of benefits, CA interventions have implications for labour requirements and labour allocation, investment decisions with respect to mechanization and herbicide use, crop choice, and residue management. CA practice may impact upon the ability of households to source a wide variety of crops, wild plants, and insects and small animals for household nutrition. Gender biases in extension service design can sideline women. This paper examines the limited research to date on the interactions between CA interventions and gender in East and Southern Africa, and, based on the gaps observed, sets out a research agenda. It argues that attention to gender in CA is particularly timely given the increasing interest in CA as a means of adapting to climate change.     

The economic and poverty impacts of maize research in West and Central Africa

This article assembles the results of three multicountry surveys on variety performance and adoption patterns to measure the impacts of maize research in West and Central Africa from 1981 to 2005, and uses cost data since 1971 to compute social rates of return on public investments in maize research in the region. Adoption of modern varieties increased from less than 5% of the maize area in the 1970s to about 60% in 2005, yielding an aggregate rate of return on research and development (R&D) investment of 43%. The estimated number of people moved out of poverty through adoption of new maize varieties rose gradually in the 1980s to more than one million people per year since the mid 1990s. Over half of these impacts can be attributed to international maize research at IITA and CIMMYT. The article concludes with a discussion of strategic options to enhance the impacts of maize research in the region.     

Ex ante analysis of the benefits of transgenic drought tolerance research on cereal crops in low-income countries

This article develops a framework to examine the ex ante benefits of transgenic research on drought in eight low-income countries, including the benefits to producers and consumers from farm income stabilization and the potential magnitude of private sector profits from intellectual property rights (IPRs). The framework employs country-specific agroecological–drought risk zones and considers both yield increases and yield variance reductions when estimating producer and consumer benefits from research. Benefits from yield variance reductions are shown to be an important component of aggregate drought research benefits, representing 40% of total benefits across the eight countries. Further, estimated annual benefits of US$178 million to the private sector suggest that significant incentives exist for participation in transgenic drought tolerance research.     

A methodology for class analysis: Agricultural investments and agrarian change in South Africa

This paper presents a class-analytic approach, which combines a “labour exploitation criterion” with class typologies developed for the South African context and the author's additions. The labour exploitation criterion distinguishes between rural classes based on the degree to which one employs others, works for others, or works for oneself. I combine the principal indicator of “labour exploitation” with the income contributions of social grants, ownership of farming assets and livestock, and the contribution of agricultural production to simple or expanded reproduction. Debates around class formation are explored in the context of a comparative analysis of two joint venture (JV) dairy farms, located in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa, which involve residents as both landowners and workers. A class-analytic approach illuminates the emerging agrarian class structure that a JV-type intervention both reflects and in turn conditions, in dialectical fashion, with important implications for debates around agrarian change in South Africa.     

Towards the measurement of the impacts of improving research capacity: an economic evaluation of training in wheat disease resistance*

It is notoriously difficult to assess the economic value of research aimed at improving research capacity, particularly for the human capital component of research capacity. In this paper, a framework is developed and an analysis is undertaken of the value of training for scientists in wheat rust resistance. The value of improving human capital is assessed through a framework based on marginal analysis of the improvement in productivity outcomes flowing from the increased capacity. On that basis, the value of programs to build human capacity through training or further education can be estimated. Although such estimates are necessarily qualified, they provide a basis for quantifying the value of building research and development capacity.     

城市用水与经济发展:政策的影响——基于27个国家的实证分析

揭示城市人均用水和经济社会发展的长期关系,分析政策因素对于城市人均用水量的影响。基于面板数据回归模型,考察27个国家在1960—2010年的城市用水情况,发现城市人均用水与经济发展存在着N型关系,即随着经济发展,城市人均用水量经历先增后减的过程,当经济发展达到较高水平,城市用水趋于稳定,且略有增加,这一关系吻合库兹涅茨曲线的形态,因此被命名为水的库兹涅茨曲线。区分水的效率政策和水的效能政策2种不同的政策,发现水的效率政策对于降低城市人均用水量效果更为直接显著,而水的效能政策则需要一定时间的实施使其发挥效果。政府可通过合理配置不同的政策实现水资源的优化利用,从而实现可持续发展。     

Micro insights on the pathways to agricultural transformation: Comparative evidence from Southeast Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa

Most studies of agricultural transformation document the impact of agricultural income growth on macroeconomic indicators of development. Much less is known about the micro-scale changes within the farming sector that signal a transformation precipitated by agricultural income growth. This study provides a comparative analysis of the patterns of micro-level changes that occur among small-holder farmers in Uganda and Malawi in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and Thailand and Vietnam in Southeast Asia (SEA). Our analysis provides several important insights on agricultural transformation in these two regions. First, agricultural income in all examined countries is vulnerable to changes in precipitation and temperature, an effect that is nonlinear and asymmetric. SSA countries are more vulnerable to these weather changes. Second, exogenous increases in agricultural income in previous years improve non-farm income and trigger a change in labor allocation within the rural sector in SEA. However, this is the opposite in SSA where the increase in agricultural income reduces non-farm income, indicating a substitution effect between farm and non-farm sectors. These findings reveal clear agricultural transformation driven by agricultural income in SEA but no similar evidence in SSA.     

Introduction to the special issue on the role of nonfarm income in poverty reduction: evidence from Asia and East Africa

In this special issue, we present seven studies that collectively attempt to investigate the role of non‐farm income in long‐term and short‐term poverty reduction in Asia and Africa. The first four studies out of the seven use long‐term panel data over two decades in the Philippines, Thailand, Bangladesh, and India. These studies show drastic increases in non‐farm income shares and corresponding declines in poverty levels over time, especially in the Philippines and Thailand. Education levels of household members and returns to education also increased significantly in these countries. The remaining three studies use cross‐sectional and short‐term panel data from Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda. These African studies show high proportions of poor households and low shares of non‐farm income that are somewhat comparable to the situation in the 1980s described in the Asian studies. Without the Green Revolution that provided stable farm income and potential financial resources to invest in children' education in Asia, it is not clear if African farm households can follow the Asian examples.     

Crossing spatial analyses and livestock economics to understand deforestation processes in the Brazilian Amazon: the case of São Félix do Xingú in South Pará

The Amazon is the largest tropical forest area on Earth, and has been undergoing rapid deforestation for the last four decades. In the Brazilian Amazon, large‐scale pasture for cattle ranching and soybean production are the main land uses, leading to a yearly deforestation rate of 0.5%. These conversions are mostly located in frontier areas distributed along the so‐called “arc of deforestation”. Within this large zone, various land use change processes are interacting through several modes of land valuation and organisation. From several case studies in the State of Pará (Brazil), the current project aims at analysing how landscape dynamics are related to infrastructure development, ecological conditions, zoning policies and to the evolution and the organisation of the production, consumption and marketing chains of livestock products. This paper presents the results for one test site, the region of São Félix do Xingú, South of Pará This region is the focus of land speculation, cattle expansion, and deforestation. Road construction, investments in electrical energy, financial credit for cattle, and the land reform policies have all fuelled this process. All these factors make this region one of the most dynamic agricultural frontiers in the Brazilian Amazon. The main objective of the paper is to improve our understanding of deforestation processes by crossing spatial analyses and 1ivestock economics.studies, and to characterise the role and impact of various natural and anthropic factors in the location and development of the main types of farmers, and their policy implications.     

The literature on the economic causes of and policy responses to obesity

This paper discusses economic perspectives on obesity, summarizes the economic literature and outlines potential policy responses. The paper provides the most up-to-date review of the literature. The literature illustrates the potential role of informational market failures and the dichotomy between the private and social costs of obesity. Market failures can act to provide a rationale for government intervention. Suggested factors for explaining the increase in the prevalence of obesity are discussed as relating to imperfect information, lifestyle changes and technology changes. Some of the potential remedial policies that are being debated in the literature include applying Pigouvian taxes, labelling regulation and advertising limitations.     

Toward a systemic analysis of city-agriculture interactions in West Africa: A geography of arrangements between actors

Despite the importance of urban agriculture in developing countries, urban agriculture is not well understood by public authorities. This lack of knowledge impedes its inclusion in public policies of urban planning. A substantial body of literature deals with urban agriculture but little research has analyzed the multidimensional city-agriculture interactions facilitating its enduring presence within the city. We suggest the hypothesis that informal processes are at the core of the persistence of urban agriculture and propose the concept of socio-spatial arrangements (SSAs) between the actors. To study urban agriculture in Bobo-Dioulasso, a West African city, we propose to develop a geography of arrangements to understand the social and spatial characteristics of SSAs and the way they influence urban agriculture development. Taking the example of market gardeners and pig breeders, we highlight how farmers overcome urban constraints through localized social networks. Results show that arrangements between the actors are at the core of the persistence of urban agriculture. We underline two different socio-spatial morphologies (SSMs) of urban agriculture according to differences in urban agriculture characteristics. These SSMs illustrate how market gardeners and pig breeders integrate differently into the urban space. The systemic approach of studying arrangements between actors helps us understand how urban farming activities function, and how they are connected to each other and to the urban and regional system, thus building a picture of an agri-urban system. We discuss the policy and theoretical implications of this research. This study is aimed at providing a better understanding of urban agriculture that can enhance its consideration as a viable component of the city.     

The impact of population growth and climate change on food security in Africa: looking ahead to 2050

Providing nutritious and environmentally sustainable food to all people at all times is one of the greatest challenges currently facing society. This problem is particularly acute in Africa where an estimated one in four people still lack adequate food to sustain an active and healthy life. In this study, we consider the potential impact of future population growth and climate change on food security in Africa, looking ahead to 2050. A modelling framework termed FEEDME (Food Estimation and Export for Diet and Malnutrition Evaluation) was used which was characterized to model the impacts of future climate changes (utilizing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios projections) and projected population growth on food availability and subsequent undernourishment prevalence in 44 African countries. Our results indicate that projected rapid population growth will be the leading cause of food insecurity and widespread undernourishment across Africa. Very little to no difference in undernourishment projections were found when we examined future scenarios with and without the effects of climate change, suggesting population growth is the dominant driver of change. Various adaptation options are discussed, such as closing the yield gap via sustainable intensification and increasing imports through trade and aid agreements. These strategies are likely to be critical in preventing catastrophic future food insecurity.     

Priority setting for research on aquatic resources: an application of modified economic surplus analysis to natural resource systems

In contrast to research on farming systems, research on natural resource systems seldom applies rigorous priority setting techniques, mainly due to difficulties associated with estimating research impact ex ante for such systems. This article presents a replicable approach to priority setting that addresses these difficulties. Assessment is based on multiple criteria, combining economic surplus analysis with subjective scoring, based on information drawn from a cross‐country survey of expert opinion. The approach is applied to the WorldFish Center, a global agricultural research organization focusing on living aquatic resources, both farmed and wild. The exercise demonstrates the relevance of conventional evaluation techniques to fisheries research based on a practical application of its impact pathways.