A Review of: ADVANCED TECHNIQUES FOR STRATEGIC PLANNING by Ernest C. Miller

The Net Present Value (NPV) rule of financial theory gives management a decisive criterion for choosing between abandonment versus continuation of capital projects. There is extensive evidence, however, that management chooses to delay the abandonment of unprofitable projects. This paper attempts to explain management's reluctance to abide by the NPV criterion. The concept of a Reputation Adjusted Net Present Value is introduced in an environment where management knows more about the true value of a project than do stakeholders. The model indicates that, in such an environment, the continuation of a negative NPV project may maximize firm value.     

Exploration and Resource Commitments in Unequal Partnerships: An Examination of Corporate Venture Capital Investments

While established firms' relationships with external ventures may have significant strategic benefits, the realization of such benefits is fraught with considerable uncertainty. The real options and interorganizational learning literatures present an interesting trade‐off for established firms regarding commitment of resources in a partnership. This study seeks to enhance our understanding of how firms manage these trade‐offs when committing resources to external venturing initiatives. We examine the magnitude of resources initially committed by an established firm to an external venturing partnership in the context of corporate venture capital (CVC) investments. While a real options approach suggests that resource commitments should be lowered in the presence of uncertainty regarding realization of benefits, the interorganizational literature emphasizes that resource commitments may be essential for building quality relationships that expedite learning. Corporate investors, who invest in new ventures in order to gain strategic benefits, face higher uncertainty when their investment objectives involve greater exploration. However, greater exploration also increases investors' need to learn from their portfolio ventures. We, therefore, predicted that the degree of exploration would have a U‐shaped relationship with the investor's resource commitment in a venture. We also expected that factors that serve to decrease the investor's uncertainty, i.e., investor experience diversity and venture affiliation to prominent venture capitalists, would moderate the U‐shaped relationship between exploration and resource commitment. The predictions of the study are tested on a sample of 248 initial investments in private ventures made by incumbent firms in the computer, semiconductor, and telecommunications industries between 1996 and 2000. We find some support for our hypotheses. This study contributes to the external venturing literature on CVC investments by examining the determinants of the magnitude of resource commitment to new ventures, and integrates real options perspective, which advocates low resource commitments under uncertainty, with the organizational learning literature, which argues for greater resource commitment to secure partner cooperation. The results of this study reveal interesting insights into how CVC investors manage individual investments to generate strategic benefits.     

Strategic planning: valuing and managing portfolios of real options

This article presents a value-based strategic planning framework suitable for valuing and managing portfolios of corporate real options. The proposed framework combines insights from strategic management theory with novel quantitative valuation tools from finance. Strategic planning is viewed as a process of actively developing and managing portfolios of corporate real options in the context of competitive interactions. As such, the expanded valuation framework recognizes that future growth opportunity value deriving from the firm's resources and capabilities must explicitly account for uncertainty, adaptability, and competitive responsiveness. The resulting expanded valuation framework is able to capture the value of the adaptive resources and capabilities that enable a firm to adapt and re-deploy assets, develop and exploit synergies, and gain competitive advantage via time-to-market and first- or second-mover advantages. We show how two basic metrics in this value-based framework, current profitability of assets in place and future growth option value, can be obtained from financial market data and how they can be used in active portfolio planning.     

The HAMP NPV Model: Development and Early Performance

The foreclosure crisis that began in 2008 triggered the need for new approaches to treat distressed mortgages. A key component of the Obama Administration's Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) was the development of a standardized Net Present Value (NPV) Model to identify troubled loans that were value‐enhancing candidates for payment‐reducing modifications. This article discusses the development of the HAMP NPV Model, 1 its purpose and some important constraints that dictated its structure and limitations. We describe the structure and the estimation of the model in detail. We also describe the responsiveness of the model to key characteristics, such as loan‐to‐value and credit score, as well as provide new evidence on the relationship between HAMP modification performance and key borrower and modification characteristics. The article concludes with a discussion of model limitations and the future role of systematic loan modification using NPV analysis.     

Toward a behavioral theory of real options: Noisy signals,bias, and learning

Research Summary: We develop a behavioral theory of real options that relaxes the informational and behavioral assumptions underlying applications of financial options theory to real assets. To do so, we augment real option theory's focus on uncertain future asset values (prospective uncertainty) with feedback learning theory that considers uncertain current asset values (contemporaneous uncertainty). This enables us to incorporate behavioral bias in the feedback learning process underlying the option execution/termination decision. The resulting computational model suggests that firms that inappropriately account for contemporaneous uncertainty and are subject to learning biases may experience substantial downside risk in undertaking real options. Moreover, contrary to the standard option result, greater uncertainty may decrease option value, making commitment to an investment path more effective than remaining flexible. Managerial Summary: Executives recognize the need to make uncertain investments to grow their business while mitigating downside risk. The analogy between financial options and real corporate investments provides an appealing method to consider the practical challenge of such investment decisions. Unfortunately, the “real options” analogy seems to break down in practice. We identify how a second form of uncertainty confounds real options intuition, leading managers to overestimate the value of uncertain investments. We present a behavioral real options model that accounts for both forms of uncertainty and suggest how uncertainty interacts with behavioral bias in the option execution/termination decision. Our model facilitates assessment of the conditions under which investments in uncertain opportunities are usefully considered as real options, and provides a means to evaluate their attractiveness.     

Choosing governance modes for external technology sourcing

This study examines the effect of uncertainty on governance mode choice of interfirm relationships in new business development (NBD). We combine transaction cost economics and real options reasoning, arguing that in the early stages of NBD, where technological and market uncertainty are very high, companies are better off using governance modes that are reversible and involve a low level of commitment. When uncertainty has decreased as a result of prior R&D investments, transaction costs considerations become dominant and companies will shift towards governance modes that are less reversible and more hierarchical. We argue that technological distance leads to less hierarchical governance modes and prior cooperation between firms leads to subsequent choices for more hierarchical modes. Finally, we propose that higher exogenous uncertainty leads to less hierarchical governance modes.     

Strategic consensus mapping: A new method for testing and visualizing strategic consensus within and between teams

Research on strategic consensus focuses primarily on the extent of agreement among team members regarding organizational strategy. It does not include elements such as the content of the agreement, between‐group consensus, or the significance of differences in consensus (e.g., for evaluating the effectiveness of strategic interventions). We propose a new analytical approach, Strategic Consensus Mapping, that provides a comprehensive analysis of strategic consensus within and between groups and that includes intuitive and easy‐to‐understand visualizations. This approach offers researchers the necessary tools for integrative theory building in strategic consensus, as well as in the broader managerial and organizational cognition domain. Using a case example, we illustrate the proposed methods for a multidimensional, multilevel, and longitudinal analysis of strategic consensus. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Strategic issue management

The paper presents a systematic approach for early identification and fast response to important trends and events which impact on the firm. Two versions of such an approach are described: a strong signal and a weak signal strategic issue management system. Strategic issue management, which responds to signals in “real time”, is compared to periodic strategic planning, and criteria for choice among the three are proposed.     

Real options and MNE strategies in Asia Pacific

Asia Pacific offers a lot of promising growth opportunities, but it also presents high levels of uncertainty for multinational enterprises (MNEs). In this paper, we introduce real options theory as a theory of investment under uncertainty, and we discuss its implications for MNEs and their strategies with a focus on the emerging economies in Asia Pacific. We suggest that MNEs must recognize the various sources of uncertainty, as well as the various options embedded in their investments, and real options theory can help them structure and design their investments to benefit from uncertainty. In particular, MNEs need to develop the dynamic capabilities of managing real options in their investments to respond to the evolving economic and institutional environment in the region. This paper also provides several implications for policy makers in Asia Pacific to stimulate investment activities in the region and to help their firms venture successfully in the international market place.

Strategic concepts as micro‐level tools in strategic sensemaking

Research Summary: The purpose of this article is to illuminate the role of concepts in strategic sensemaking. Based on a longitudinal real‐time study of a city organization, we demonstrate how the concept of “self‐responsibility” played a crucial role in strategic sensemaking. We develop a theoretical model that elucidates how strategic concepts are used in meaning‐making, and how such concepts may be mobilized for the legitimation of strategic change. Our main contribution is to offer strategic concepts as a missing micro‐level component of the language‐based view of strategic processes and practices. By so doing, our analysis also adds to studies on strategic ambiguity and advances research on vocabularies. Managerial Summary: Our analysis helps to understand the role of strategic concepts, that is, specific words or phrases with established and at least partly shared meanings, in an organization's strategy process. We show how adopting the concept “self‐responsibility” helped managers in a city organization to make sense of environmental challenges and to promote change. Our analysis highlights how such concepts involve ambiguity that can help managers to establish common ground, but can also hinder implementation of specific decisions and actions if it grows over time. We suggest that under environmental changes, development of new strategic concepts may be crucial in helping managers to collectively deal with environmental changes and to articulate a new strategic direction for the organization.     

Venture capitalists' decision to withdraw: The role of portfolio configuration from a real options lens

When does a venture capital firm withdraw from an investment project prior to its completion? This study offers a real options view on this decision by examining the contingent effects of portfolio configuration. We explore how project withdrawal can be influenced by two distinct dimensions of portfolio configuration, portfolio focus in a strategic domain and portfolio diversity across multiple domains. The empirical analysis shows that while portfolio focus weakens the negative effect of industry‐level uncertainty on a venture capitalist's propensity to withdraw from a project, portfolio diversity strengthens the effect of uncertainty. This study informs current research on the boundary of real options theory and sheds light on the behavior of venture capitalists in financing entrepreneurship. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

CEO career horizon,corporate governance,and real options: The role of economic short‐termism

Research Summary: Combining studies on real options theory and economic short‐termism, we propose that, depending on CEOs’ career horizons, CEOs have heterogeneous interests in strategic flexibility, and thus, have different incentives to make real options investments. We argue that compared to CEOs with longer career horizons, CEOs with shorter career horizons will be less inclined to make real options investments because they may not fully reap the rewards during their tenure. In addition, we argue that long‐term incentives and institutional ownership will mitigate the relationship between CEOs’ career horizons and real options investments. U.S. public firms as an empirical setting produced consistent evidence for our predictions. Our study is the first to theoretically explain and empirically show that a CEO's self‐seeking behavior will impact real options investments. Managerial Summary: This article helps to explain how a CEO's self seeking‐behavior may shape a firm's real option investment, which could result in different level of strategic flexibility. We argue that CEOs with short career horizons have less time to exercise their firms’ real options, which should lower the investments in the firms’ real options portfolios relative to CEOs with long career horizons. We study a sample of U.S. public firms and find strong evidence that a CEO's expected tenure in the firm is positively related to the real options investments at the firm level. We find that this agency issue can be mitigated by adopting appropriate corporate governance mechanisms such as long‐term incentives and institutional investors.     

EXPLOITING UNCERTAINTY—INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES AS REAL OPTIONS: A NEW WAY OF THINKING IN ENGINEERING ECONOMICS

A new trend in corporate planning is to exploit uncertainty by taking investment opportunities as real options. This options approach is to complement the conventional net present value (NPV) criterion in evaluating risky investments. In this paper, we take a broad look at the real options approach to various engineering economic decision problems, laying out how it provides an immediate and important perspective on value creation in an uncertain world. Unlike financial options, real options analysisdeals with investments in real assets, which is one of the primary interest areas in engineering economics. For that reason, we believe that any advancement in the real options decision framework will benefit the field of engineering economics.     

Strategic planning as a complex and enabling managerial tool

Research summary : The role of the strategic planning process in the ongoing generation of innovative knowledge is vital to the survival and growth of a firm, especially when technologies and market conditions are rapidly changing. We analyze data from a survey of firms in high‐technology industries to determine whether it is possible to break the commonly experienced trade‐off between strategic planning's positive influence on firm profitability and its negative influence on firm innovation. We draw on Adler and Borys's (1996) conceptualization of bureaucratic process types to identify several firm characteristics that have the potential to affect whether employees perceive strategic planning as enabling to their creative endeavors. We find that contingent effects between strategic planning and the identified firm characteristics exist that can break the trade‐off. Managerial summary : A tension exits in the literature about whether strategic planning hurts or helps innovative activity. Our analysis of data from 227 business units in high‐technology industries indicates that strategic planning is a complex process that can be perceived by employees as enabling or coercive. Our results confirm that strategic planning negatively affects innovative activity but positively affects profitability for average firms. We find, however, controllable firm characteristics—risk‐taking and knowledge‐based reward systems—affect the trade‐off. Given the higher levels of risk‐taking and knowledge‐based reward systems, firms can use strategic planning to achieve both high returns on investment and a high level of innovative activity. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

THE ECONOMIC EVALUATION OF A JOINT SUPPLY CHAIN INNOVATION

In this paper we discuss the economic evaluation of a supply chain innovation. We look at a situation in which a single manufacturer and a single distributor consider relocating assets and reengineering processes, in order to reduce total assets and total costs in the supply chain. The selling price between the manufacturer and distributor needs to be adjusted to reflect the new costs and asset levels. We investigate the price adjustment needed to maintain the ROA (Return on Assets) of both companies and to yield a nonnegative NPV (Net Present Value) for both companies. We identify conditions under which ROA and NPV yield the same results, such as the absence of implementation costs. We also demonstrate that the minimum price required by the manufacturer may lie above the maximum price acceptable for the distributor. Then the price range is empty and companies will not be able to find a price adjustment that results in a nonnegative NPV and nondecreasing ROAs for both companies.     

R&D as an option on market introduction

Discounted cash flow methods for making R&D investment decisions cannot properly capture the option value in R&D. Since market and technology uncertainties change expectations about the viability of many new products, the value of projects is frequently adjusted during the R&D stages. Capturing the adjustment in expectations has an option value that may significantly differ from the Net Present Value of R&D projects. However, there are no historic time series for estimating the uncertainty of the value of R&D projects. As a result, the standard Black and Scholes model for financial option valuation needs to be adjusted. The aim of this paper is to report the application of a particular option pricing model for setting the budget of R&D projects. The option value of the model captures jumps or business shifts in market or technology conditions. The approach originates from applying current insight into the valuation of R&D projects to the field of multimedia research at Philips Corporate Research. This way, the gap between real option theory and R&D practice is further diminished.     

The moderating effect of innovative capacity on the relationship between real options and strategic flexibility

In dynamic sectors, organizations should be capable of adapting to unpredictable environmental conditions. Strategic flexibility grants organizations the capacity to respond to the changes in their environment in the direction required, renewing their strategies and making the required organizational changes. The goal of this study is to analyze how the use of real options relates to strategic flexibility from a managerial capacity perspective. Through an empirical study performed on European firms, we confirm that innovative capacity exercises a moderating role between real options and strategic flexibility. The fact that a firm's management has foreseen and contemplated real options does not necessarily lead to their execution; they must also be accompanied by some innovative capacity.     

The case for a real options approach to ex-ante cost-benefit analyses of agricultural research projects

The United States Agency for International Development (USAID), like many other development agencies and donors, increasingly emphasizes evidence-based programming. This requires assessments of project performance at all stages of implementation, comprising ex-ante impact assessment, monitoring and evaluation, and ex-post attribution of outcomes. Ex-ante impact assessment, in particular, involves performing Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) to determine the Expected Net Present Value (ENPV) of the project in question. Unfortunately, the traditional ENPV approach has proven inadequate for dealing with uncertainty in the timing of investments and flexibility in future decision making. This is especially relevant for Research and Development (R&D) projects which require several stages of product development and multiple rounds of testing prior to releasing final products. As a consequence, the real-options approach to CBA has increasingly been used to evaluate private sector R&D projects. This paper advocates for the adoption of the real options approach in the evaluation of public investments in agricultural research, and illustrates its practical utility with an assessment conducted by USAID to determine the economic viability of a proposed project to develop improved varieties of critical food security crops in Uganda.     

Strategic Alignment and New Product Development: Drivers and Performance Effects

Strategic alignment is widely accepted as a prerequisite for a firm's success, but insight into the role of alignment in, and its impact on, the new product development (NPD) process and its performance is less well developed. Most publications on this topic either focus on one form of alignment or on one or a limited set of NPD performance indicators. Furthermore, different and occasionally contradictory findings have been reported. NPD scholars have long argued for the importance of fit between context and NPD activities. However, this body of literature suffers from the same weakness: most publications have a limited scope and the findings are not always consistent with results reported previously. This study addresses these deficiencies by examining (1) the effects of various internal and external factors on different forms of alignment, and (2) the effects of these forms of alignment on a set of NPD performance indicators. Strategic planning and innovativeness appear to affect technological, market, and NPD‐marketing alignment positively. Environmental munificence is negatively associated with NPD‐marketing alignment, but has no effect on the two other forms of alignment. Technological change has a positive effect on technological alignment, a negative effect on NPD‐marketing alignment, but no effect on market alignment. These findings suggest that internal capabilities are more likely to be associated with the development of strategic alignment than environmental factors are. Furthermore, technological and NPD‐marketing alignment affect NPD performance positively, while market alignment does not have any significant performance effects.     

PRINCIPLES OF- ENGINEERING ECONOMIC ANALYSIS by John A. White,Marvin H. Agee and Kenneth E. Case,John Wiley & Sons,Inc., New York, 1984, 2nd Ed., xii + 546 pp., List $32.95.

In his three recent papers [3], [4], and [5], R.G. Beaves develops an Overall Rate of Return (ORR) project evaluation criterion based on the concept of the so-called transition point (TP) which he has defined in two different versions.¹ In the present contribution, it is shown that some projects may produce undefined ORRs for either TP version, and that other ORR-like criteria [7] may also generate undefined results for projects for which the Net Present Value (NPV) criterion is defined. To eliminate the cases of the ORR undefinability, a generalization of the ORR criterion is proposed that makes this criterion fully NPV compatible and applicable to both investment and financing projects. This criterion embraces all the existing ORR approaches that are based on the notions of the initial and terminal wealths, including both of Beaves' approaches.