Equity stakes and exit: An experimental approach to decomposing exit delay

Research summary : Exit delay is an important problem for entrepreneurs and managers alike, yet relatively little is known about its causes. We conduct a laboratory experiment in which optimal exit is well defined, and in which a treatment group with equity stakes—the actual cash flows of a firm and decision rights over its continuation—is compared to a control group whose compensation is based solely on its assessment of the firm's profitability. While treatment group participants make exit decisions that are nearly optimal given their beliefs, their beliefs are significantly distorted relative to the control group. The pattern of distortion is consistent with confirmatory bias and motivated reasoning. A fundamental finding of our study is that incentives may not only affect behavior, but belief formation as well. Managerial summary : Managers and entrepreneurs frequently destroy significant value by failing to shut down underperforming businesses in a timely manner. To address this problem, we must understand the mechanisms causing exit delay. We examine behavioral mechanisms causing delay through a laboratory experiment in which subjects make decisions about when to exit a failing venture. We find that “equity stakes”—receiving the firm's cash flows and having decision rights over exit—cause participants to discount negative performance information, retain overly optimistic beliefs, and delay exit. By contrast, participants without these high‐powered incentives exit nearly optimally. Our findings suggest ways to reduce exit delay in managerial settings, including implementing automated decision rules, removing equity‐based compensation, and recruiting managers less susceptible to knowledge overconfidence, a trait associated with exit delay. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Time to exit: Rational,behavioral, and organizational delays

Existing studies of exit delay typically focus on rational, behavioral, or organizational explanations in isolation. We integrate these different theoretical explanations, develop testable hypotheses for each, and examine them using the population of US banks between 1984 and 1997. Banks' exit behavior is not consistent with theories emphasizing the option value of avoiding reentry costs. Patterns of exit do, however, support models of rational delay under ability uncertainty. Controlling for this source of rational delay, we find evidence of delay due to behavioral bias—firms discount negative signals of profitability relative to positive signals—and organizational considerations—delay increases with the separation of ownership and control. These results demonstrate that all three sets of theories are necessary to describe exit behavior. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Closure and divestiture by foreign entrants: the impact of entry and post‐entry strategies

We analyze the longevity of foreign entrants explicitly considering two possible ways of exit: firm closure and capital divestiture. We find that entry and post‐entry strategies affect the longevity of firms and of foreign equity holdings, but in different manners. While the ownership arrangements and organizational structure affect the likelihood of divestment, they exert no significant effect upon closure. The entry mode exerts opposite effects on the two modes of exit, greenfield entrants being more likely to shutdown, but less likely to be divested. Only human capital affects closure and divestment in the same manner. Firms with large endowments of human capital are less likely to exit, irrespective of the exit mode considered. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Risk and the strategy of foreign location choice in regulated industries

We argue that firms in regulated industries react to macroeconomic and policy risks in sharply different ways. While they seek to avoid countries with high levels of macroeconomic uncertainty, we predict that they find it more attractive to expand into countries characterized by governments with discretionary policymaking capacities so as to be able to negotiate favorable conditions of entry. We also argue that firms are heterogeneous in their attitudes toward risk. We predict that firms in which the state holds a partial equity stake exhibit a more tolerant attitude. We also expect that as firms accumulate foreign experience, they develop an aversion toward further foreign entries into politically unstable markets. Support for these predictions is provided by an analysis of the Latin American market entries of all listed Spanish firms in regulated industries between 1987 and 2000. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Non‐additivity in portfolios of exploration activities: a real options‐based analysis of equity alliances in biotechnology

Firms invest in exploration‐oriented activities to seek competitive advantage and in response to changing environments. Real options formulations represent an emerging strand of thinking on such investments. In this paper we begin with the observation that firms often simultaneously invest in multiple exploration projects. We identify two sources of potential interactions among these real options investments. First, we investigate the effects of correlations between the outcomes in different options. Second, we analyze the effects of investments that are fungible across project options. We show that under different conditions multiple options can be sub‐additive (due to redundancies in outcomes) or super‐additive (due to fungible inputs). We test the implications of our model with data from the biotech industry and find supporting evidence. Our model and results have some interesting implications for the exploration literature and real options lens. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Political capabilities,policy risk,and international investment strategy: evidence from the global electric power generation industry

Whereas conventional wisdom holds that multinational enterprises (MNEs) invest less in host countries that pose greater policy risk—the risk that a government will opportunistically alter policies to expropriate an investing firm's profits or assets—we argue that MNEs vary in their response to host‐country policy risk as a result of differences in organizational capabilities for assessing such risk and managing the policy‐making process. We hypothesize that firms from home countries characterized by weaker institutional constraints on policy makers or greater redistributive pressures associated with political rent seeking will be less sensitive to host‐country policy risk in their international expansion strategies. Moreover, firms from home countries characterized by sufficiently weak institutional constraints or sufficiently strong redistributive pressures will seek out riskier host countries for their international investments to leverage their political capabilities, which permit them to attain and defend attractive positions or industry structures. We find support for our hypotheses in a statistical analysis of the foreign direct investment location choices of MNEs in the electric power generation industry during the period 1990–1999, the industry's first decade of internationalization. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Incumbent strategic behavior in financial markets and the exit of entrepreneurial start‐ups

This paper empirically investigates the forces that shape the post‐entry exit probability of entrepreneurial start‐ups, with an emphasis on the impact of incumbents' strategic behavior in financial markets. We find that entrepreneurial start‐ups in highly competitive industries are more likely to exit and that leverage compounds this exit risk. However, the latter result only holds when potential adverse selection and moral hazard problems in financial markets are large at start‐up. Under these circumstances, competitors can negatively influence creditors' perceptions on entrepreneurial quality or behavior through aggressive strategic actions to impede future financing and induce the start‐up's exit. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Confidence in learning: Inter‐ and intraorganizational learning in foreign market entry decisions

From an organizational learning perspective, we argue that the information signaled by the distribution attributes of foreign investors already operating in a location will influence the entry decisions of later arrivals by affecting their level of confidence in imitating. In the context of foreign investment decisions, the proportion of experienced firms in a location was shown to first increase a follower firm's confidence about imitating them, but then to decrease it, due to anticipated competition. The impact of learning from target organizations also varies with the experience of the learning organization. Data on the location choices of 7,478 manufacturing ventures in China by U.S. firms supported the hypotheses. The results provide a more integrated and nuanced understanding of learning in foreign direct investment. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Creating barriers for foreign competitors: a study of the impact of anti-dumping actions on the performance of U.S. firms

This study investigates whether anti-dumping statutes are effective at improving the performance of U.S. firms. As international trade grows and competitors increasingly cross national borders to enter new markets, U.S. trade law becomes a potentially important tool for managers as they consider how to create barriers for foreign competitors. The results of this study suggest that the anti-dumping laws significantly increase returns of U.S. firms that pursue anti-dumping protection. The average petitioner between 1980 and 1992 received a $46 million increase in market value as a result of filing an anti-dumping petition. However, no significant change in market value was associated with preliminary or final determinations of the International Trade Commission, except when petitions received a negative determination at the final stage of the process. A negative determination at the final stage of the process resulted in a loss of market value. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Toward a legitimacy‐based view of political risk: The case of Google and Yahoo in China

Traditional political risk theories often focus on a developing host country government's ability to intervene in the activities of foreign multinationals in the extractive or infrastructure sectors. This results in inadequate understanding of (1) how a government's motivation to intervene is influenced by the broader societal context, (2) the importance of multinationals' political risk at home, and (3) the increasing political risk faced by high‐tech and service firms. We argue that there is a need to update the bargaining power and political institutions theories and further develop a legitimacy‐based view of political risk. Then, we examine the political risk experienced by Google and Yahoo at home and abroad due to their activities in China to illustrate the benefits of a holistic approach to political risk. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The role of operational flexibility in the expansion of international production networks

Volatile factor cost developments urge manufacturing firms to increase production efficiency by building up facilities in multiple countries. Differing from previous work that examines the quality of individual locations for investment, the study evaluates the net present value, the growth option value, and the operational flexibility value of the existing production network to predict the establishment of a new site. The results on a sample of 352 German manufacturing firms suggest that the direction, uncertainty, and diversity of labor cost movements in the extant locations influence the propensity to set up a new production subsidiary. Analyzing the international production network after the expansion shows that the new location increases the value of the network regarding these dimensions. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

CEO career horizon,corporate governance,and real options: The role of economic short‐termism

Research Summary: Combining studies on real options theory and economic short‐termism, we propose that, depending on CEOs’ career horizons, CEOs have heterogeneous interests in strategic flexibility, and thus, have different incentives to make real options investments. We argue that compared to CEOs with longer career horizons, CEOs with shorter career horizons will be less inclined to make real options investments because they may not fully reap the rewards during their tenure. In addition, we argue that long‐term incentives and institutional ownership will mitigate the relationship between CEOs’ career horizons and real options investments. U.S. public firms as an empirical setting produced consistent evidence for our predictions. Our study is the first to theoretically explain and empirically show that a CEO's self‐seeking behavior will impact real options investments. Managerial Summary: This article helps to explain how a CEO's self seeking‐behavior may shape a firm's real option investment, which could result in different level of strategic flexibility. We argue that CEOs with short career horizons have less time to exercise their firms’ real options, which should lower the investments in the firms’ real options portfolios relative to CEOs with long career horizons. We study a sample of U.S. public firms and find strong evidence that a CEO's expected tenure in the firm is positively related to the real options investments at the firm level. We find that this agency issue can be mitigated by adopting appropriate corporate governance mechanisms such as long‐term incentives and institutional investors.     

Capabilities,technologies, and firm exit during industry shakeout: Evidence from the global solar photovoltaic industry

Research Summary: Explanations of entrants’ survival in an emerging industry are premised on pre‐entry capabilities or technology entry choices prior to the emergence of the dominant design. We consider how these drivers interact to strengthen or nullify firms’ pre‐entry advantage, and facilitate adaptation as the industry evolves. We also expand the treatment of exit by separating dissolution from acquisition, in which firms’ capabilities continue to be utilized in the industry. Studying a recent shakeout in the global solar photovoltaic industry, we find that pre‐entry capabilities and technology choices act in a complementary manner for some firms, thereby enhancing survival, and as buffers against exit for others. Nearly half of exits were via acquisitions, and technology choice at entry played an important role in determining how firms exited. Managerial Summary: New industries are often characterized by intense technology competition that culminates in a dominant technology followed by industry shakeout. Although prior research underscores the central role of technology choice and firm capabilities to survival, we do not actually know how firms with different capabilities and who have made competing technology choices survive an industry shakeout. In this article, we show how entrants’ capabilities and technology choices can act in a complementary manner for some firms, enhancing their chance of survival, and as buffers against failure for others. Moreover, we explain why some firms that do exit are acquired, when others are dissolved.     

Corruption and change: the impact of foreign direct investment

This study examines influences on the level of corruption in countries from a strategic perspective. Corruption is one of the country‐level influences on market entry, investment, and other decisions fundamental to strategic management at the international level. The study examines the impact on corruption of change in levels of foreign direct investment (FDI). It uses the Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) scores computed by Transparency International for 1999 and 2000. Results indicate that the more rapid the rate of change in FDI, the higher the level of corruption. Higher levels of perceived corruption are associated with each of two dimensions of national culture: uncertainty avoidance and masculinity. Research and managerial implications are also discussed. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

‘Communities of resistance’ and the use of newspaper discussion boards: Polish workers in Japanese foreign investments

This article examines the content of 200 posts on newspaper discussion boards by workers in a cluster of Japanese foreign investments in Poland. The conclusions are first, that the material experiences of workers generate a set of themes in relation to the labour process with regard to wages and working conditions, bullying and monitoring that exhibit similarities across countries. Second, we argue that an analysis of the discourse used is shaped by political and institutional conditions, which reveal national differences in how workers perceive and locate their exploitation. Finally, in relation to debates about workers’ resistance and the use of the Internet we argue that the interaction of themes related to the material experience of work are intertwined with institutionally embedded understandings of exploitation, which not only enable a shared framework for venting, but also provide the basis for a community of resistance.     

Corporate diversification: the impact of foreign competition,industry globalization,and product diversification

The globalization of markets and industries has fundamentally changed the competitive conditions facing firms. Yet, how globalization has influenced the international diversification strategies of firms is an issue largely overlooked in both the strategic management and international business literatures. This paper develops a theoretical framework to understand how industry globalization, foreign competition, and firm product diversification may influence a firm's choice of its degree and scope of international diversification. Utilizing a panel dataset of U.S. manufacturing firms for the period 1987–99, we provide the first empirical evidence that industry globalization and foreign-based competition are statistically significant factors explaining the degree and scope of international diversification by U.S. firms. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Acquiring knowledge by foreign partners from international joint ventures in a transition economy: learning‐by‐doing and learning myopia

This paper proposes and tests a model of how firms acquire knowledge from their international joint venturing experience. Based on survey responses from 73 Singapore and 89 Hong Kong firms with respect to their joint ventures set up in China, the results indicate that both overseeing effort and management involvement are significant channels of knowledge acquisition. The former channel is more important for firms with a great deal of operational experience in China and for parents of older joint ventures. This finding indicates that firms improve their skills of knowledge acquisition through learning‐by‐doing. Moreover, the strategic importance of the venture concerned, instead of the learning intent of the parent, is the driving force behind the allocation of resources to the two channels. This implies that firms mainly learn through managing their key joint ventures. Since a venture that provides novel and fruitful learning experience may not, and need not, be an operation of great strategic importance, this finding suggests the existence of learning myopia. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Corporate political strategies and firm performance: indications of firm‐specific benefits from personal service in the U.S. government

Firms employ a variety of political strategies (e.g., lobbying, contributions) in an attempt to gain influence or access to the public policy process. A variety of benefits may accrue to firms that are successful in creating a linkage with the government: information, access, influence, reduced uncertainty and transaction costs, etc. However, the direct benefits of such strategies are difficult to observe. One political strategy is studied here—personal service (having a firm representative serve in a political capacity). Event‐study methodology results show that such linkages with the government positively affect firm value. These findings indicate that firm‐specific benefits may result from political strategies. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The effect of own-firm and other-firm experience on foreign direct investment survival in the United States, 1987–92

We argue that foreign firms operating in a host country generate information spillovers that have potential value for later foreign direct investment. We test two predictions. First, we expect foreign direct investments by firms with experience in a host country to be more likely to survive than investments made by first-time entrants. Second, foreign direct investments will be more likely to survive the greater the foreign presence in the target industry at the time of investment, subject to two contingencies. The first contingency is that the relationship will be weak or nonexistent among firms with no experience in the host country, because these firms have difficulty evaluating and taking advantage of the information spillovers. The second contingency is that the presence of other foreign firms will not affect investment survival among firms that already have a presence in the target industry and undertake expansion. These firms already possess general information about the target industries and are unlikely to gain additional benefit from information spillovers. We find supportive evidence based on the survival to 1992 among 354 U.S. investments undertaken by foreign firms in manufacturing industries during 1987. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.