The Management of Universities; Scottish Economic Society/Royal Bank of Scotland Annual Lecture, 1999

This paper surveys the literature concerning the operation of incentive mechanisms within and across higher education institutions. A principal-agent model of intra-institution resource allocation is developed, and its implications are compared with some of the resource allocation models currently in operation in British universities. At the inter-institutional level, the model is adapted to the case where a funding council serves as principal to many agents—the universities. Evidence on the scale and scope economies, and on the technical efficiency of UK universities is presented. It is argued that the received models of resource allocation should be amended so as to encourage the development of the university system in the direction of the sustainable configuration and so as to allow for differences in efficiency across budgetary units.     

The Future Welfare Burden; Scottish Economic Society/Royal Bank of Scotland Annual Lecture, 1998

For the last quarter of the twentieth century, in the UK and much of the rest of the developed world, the scale of the future welfare burden has been at the heart of political and economic debate. After a century of largely tax funded growth, through periods of enormous demographic, social and economic change, concerns about the possibility or consequences of further growth began to be voiced more and more frequently and across a wider political range. Perhaps because the welfare state is so emotive a subject, much of the debate has been rather vague, and on occasion confused and ill-informed. Our aim in this paper is to set out the context for a coherent debate about what happens next.     

Open Macroeconomics in an Open EconomyScottish Economic Society/Royal Bank of Scotland Annual Lecture, 1997

There are three pillars to the new Labour Government's approach to economic policy; delivering macroeconomic stability, tackling supply-side barriers to growth and delivering employment and economic opportunities to all. This lecture focuses on the new Government's reforms to deliver macroeconomic stability and the importance of open and transparent institutions and procedures. The lecture outlines four principles for macroeconomic policymaking which flow from changes in the world economy and the world of economic ideas over recent decades. It explains each principle and shows how they are being translated into practice in the macroeconomic policy reforms that the new Government has introduced at the Treasury and the Bank of England.     

The Policy Implications of Economic ImbalancesScottish Economic Society Royal Bank of Scotland Annaual Lecture, 2001

In this paper, I argue against the view that widening economic imbalances necessarily imply that the conjuncture is deteriorating, and more specifically against concluding that the UK imbalances, at the end of 2001, were clearly unsustainable. The term imbalance is in any case too widely used, and it is important to distinguish between stocks and flows, and therefore between an unsustainable level of debt and an unsustainable growth of debt. Policy–makers should be very reluctant about seeking to correct imbalances, as there is little certainty over what the 'right' level of debt, or current account, is at any particular time.     

The Scottish Society of Economists: The Scottish Economic Society – 1897–1997

This paper compares the two societies which have encouraged the study of economics in Scotland in the last century. It stresses differences in their objectives and considers particularly the changing content of the Scottish Journal of Political Economy . This analysis is used as the basis of an assessment of how far the new society differs from the old and of how far it has lived up to the expectations which accompanied its revival in the 1950s.     

区域经济一体化的最优货币区理论分析

欧盟是迄今为止运行最为成功的区域经济一体化组织,欧元的出现以及成功运行标志着区域经济一体化进入货币一体化的更高层次。作者首先阐述了区域经济一体化理论的产生与发展以及蒙代尔教授提出的最优货币区理论,并提出了从最优货币区理论的角度来分析区域经济一体化理论的观点,然后探讨了在一个经济区域内建立最优货币区的标准的问题,最后用 GG-LL模型分析了区域内各经济体与最优货币区的关系,从而最终建立了分析区域经济一体化本质的新视野。     

经济全球化、风险分担机制变迁与货币危机

金融体系风险分担机制包括银行中介的跨期风险分担机制和金融市场的横向风险分担机制.经济全球化条件下,资本跨国流动导致全球投资组合的优势凸现,银行资金流向金融市场,导致金融体系风险分担机制发生变迁,金融市场横向风险分担机制侵蚀银行中介跨期风险分担机制,而金融市场横向风险分担机制无法有效分担系统性风险,因此,金融体系更易受到外部系统性冲击的影响.增加了货币危机发生的概率.通过建立风险分担系数,使用88个国家的数据实证检验金融体系风险分担机制变迁对货币危机的影响,结果显示,金融体系风险分担机制变迁可以显著增加货币危机发生的概率.     

央行法定数字货币发行的驱动力、影响推演及政策建议

当前,央行法定数字货币正在紧密推进过程中,其迅速发展的背后有着深刻的驱动力因素.数字货币是电子货币进一步发展的产物,其中又分为央行发行的法定数字货币和私人发行的加密数字货币,而广义的数字货币则与电子货币是同义词.类似互联网企业发行的虚拟货币,也是电子货币的一个子集.具有经济发展稳健性和良好货币发行信用的国家所推出的央行法定数字货币是未来数字货币发展的主流,但这并不意味着私人部门发行的数字货币毫无价值.央行法定数字货币可以提高人民币在国际货币体系中的影响力,借助大数据技术提升对经济的预测、调控能力,降低货币的印刷、发行、流通成本.中国要从市场竞争的角度优化央行法定数字货币的用户体验,丰富央行法定数字货币的运营场景,积极开展国际合作和公私部门合作,完善央行法定数字货币的法律监管制度,从而提升央行法定数字货币的竞争力,形成多层次的数字货币体系.     

Bank Behaviour and the Channel of Monetary Policy in Japan, 1965–1999

Using monthly data, this paper investigates whether there are differential effects of monetary policy across bank size and business size in Japan, to test the presence of the "bank lending channel" of monetary policy. It also considers that channel for the aggregate of banks. Prior to the end of 1984, support is found for the bank lending channel and also partly for the money channel. The study of the period from 1985 onwards suggests that no channel of monetary policy has been substantially effective in Japan.     

中国经济史学会第五届年会暨经济组织与市场发展国际学术研讨会综述

2000年8月14日至1 7日,由中国经济史学会、华中师范大学联合主办,中南财经政法大学与湖北大学协办的中国经济史学会第五届年会暨经济组织与市场发展国际学术研讨会在湖北武当山隆重举行.来自海内外的百余名专家学者出席了会议,提交论文70余篇.     

经济全球化、就业替代与中部地区的"边缘化"

20世纪90年代以来,随着我国对外开放程度不断加深、外商直接投资不断扩展,沿海地区的区位优势得到充分体现,以劳动密集产业和高新技术产业为主的制造业发展迅速,这些地区正在以一种反梯度模式进行着其特殊的"再工业化"过程,并形成对内地国有部门和传统工业地区的刚性就业替代。人口外迁、就业萎缩、经济地位下降,中部地区在经济全球化过程中正在显现被"边缘化"的趋势。