Does the exchange rate matter to bilateral trade between Korea and Japan? Evidence from commodity trade data

This study examines the short- and long-run effects of exchange rate changes on trade flows in the context of disaggregating industry data of bilateral trade between Korea and Japan. For this purpose, an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach is used. Results show that Korea's exports and imports are relatively sensitive to the bilateral exchange rate in the short-run, but less responsive in the long-run. It is also found that income in the two countries has significant impacts on the bilateral trade flows in both the short- and long-run. Finally, exchange rate uncertainty and Japanese FDI to Korea are found to have little impacts on Korea's trade with Japan in the short- and long-run.     

The state's role and position in international trade: A complex network perspective

Based on statistical physics and graph theory, the research paradigm of a complex network, which has sprung up in the last decade, provides us with new global perspective to discuss the topic of international trade. In this paper, we engage in the issue of countries' roles and positions in international trade using the latest complex network theories. On a mid-level structure, countries are classified into three communities that reflect the structure of the “core/periphery” using the weighted extremal optimisation algorithm and the coarse graining process. On a micro-level, countries' rankings are provided with the aid of network's node centralities, which presents world trade as a closed, imbalanced, diversified and multi-polar development. Further, we firstly introduce the improved bootstrap percolation to simulate cascading influences following the breaking down of bilateral trade relations. We find that the breakdown of EU's export relations can more easily form a cascading reaction, which would result in a global collapse of world trade. All the results highlight the important positions of the EU, USA and Japan in the international trade system, which plays a positive role in promoting the world economy.     

An Estimation of the Impact of Oil Shocks on Crude Oil Exporting Economies and Their Trade Partners

This research evaluates the impact of oil price shocks on oil producing and consuming economies; we used a simultaneous equation framework for different countries with business relations. As expected, we found that oil-producers (here, Iran and Russia) benefit from oil price shocks. However contrary to previous findings, they also benefit from the indirect effect through their trade partners. For oil-consuming economies, the effects are more diverse. In some countries, output falls in response to an oil price shock, while some others seem to be relatively immune. Generally, those countries which trade more with oil producers gain indirect benefits via higher demand from oil-producers. For instance, the Netherlands, Germany, France, Italy, the US, the UK, and China get a negative direct effect and positive indirect effect from oil producing countries. This is exactly the result that we anticipated. India has both negative effects directly and indirectly and seems to suffer more in a positive oil price shock. For Japan, Spain, Switzerland and Turkey the results are reversed. They benefit from an oil shock directly and indirectly.     

Distribution Costs and International Trade: A Ricardian Model

This paper studies the role of the distribution sector in determining a country's pattern and terms of trade. The effect of an improvement in distribution technology is analyzed using a Ricardian trade model with an endogenous distribution sector. The results are found to depend on the magnitude of distribution costs relative to manufacturing costs and preference for distribution services in the trading countries. This has important implications for the Structural Impediments Initiative, which maintains that a more efficient distribution sector in Japan would benefit both the USA and Japan.     

Imbalances over the Pacific

This paper examines various theories of current account (trade) imbalances between the U.S. and China, by estimating a structural VAR model with long-run zero restrictions. The factors that we examine include: productivity differential, fiscal policy, consumption/saving choice, and real and nominal demand side factors comprising monetary policy, and reserve accumulation. On average, technology shocks are found to play a dominant role in explaining the trade balance movement between China and the U.S. However, in the particular period of 2004–07 when global imbalances peaked, we find that demand shocks played an unusually large role. This contrast between the average tendency and the rather abnormal development in the mid-2000s provides general equilibrium evidence for several theories of current account (trade) balance imbalance. But it also shows that the experience of the mid-2000s does not have to repeat itself, given that it was an atypical development different from the average tendency.     

Changing trade patterns in major OECD countries

Disaggregated trade data are used to examine changing trade patterns for five developed economic regions: the USA, the European Union, Australia, Canada and Japan. This study covers the 1980–1997 time period, during which international trade for most goods faced less border protection. Changing trade patterns are found for the USA, Japan, and the EU, while persistent trade patterns are observed for Australia and Canada. Classifying goods into four groups, trade patterns found in manufactured goods were the most dynamic, and trade in bulk agricultural goods the most persistent.     

An econometric analysis of consumer demand for ivory and rhino horn

In this paper an econometric model is used to describe consumer demand for ivory and rhino horn in Japan, using the Hendry research methodology. The demand for ivory in Japan, a final consumer, was found to be primarily income-led, with an elasticity of 0.75. International trade restrictions have had a profound effect on the ivory market since 1985. The data for rhino horn demand are less good, consisting of a time series for Japan before 1980, when international trade in rhino horn became illegal. However, analysis suggests that demand for rhino horn was also primarily income-led, with unit elasticity.     

Production Networks and Patterns of Trade: Evidence from Taiwan

This paper investigates the role of production networks in determining the pattern of international trade. Using Taiwan's trade data for 1991, production networks are found to have a discernible impact on the pattern of trade, aside from the variables typically envisaged by conventional and new trade theories, including factor proportions and technological difference. Taiwan's industries are shown to be relatively strong in horizontal networks, but weak in vertical ones. However, the strength in horizontal networks can be undermined by high wages, and the weakness in vertical networks can be strengthened by high R&D intensities. Both networks are conducive to intra-industry trade, which means that networks are useful devices for product differentiation.     

Can openness be an engine of sustained high growth rates and inflation?: Evidence from Japan and Korea

The effects of increasing openness on the growth rates of output and of the price level are examined for Japan and Korea. The framework of analysis is a seven-variable vector autoregressive (VAR) model, and the effects of changes in openness are evaluated by computing impulse response functions (IRFs). For both countries, shocks to trade openness are found to have significant, negative effects on economic growth and inflation in the short run, but no longer-run effects. Openness measures in financial markets also have negative effects on economic growth and inflation in Korea, whereas the effects are not significant in Japan. The findings appear consistent with some models in which a domestic economy may suffer a loss due to increased openness of an economy.     

Not all international monetary shocks are alike for the Japanese economy

This paper examines the influence of monetary aggregates shocks in the U.S., China and the Euro area on Japan. China's monetary expansion has significant effects on Japan's economy that are quite different from those of the U.S. and Euro area. In line with the implications of the Mundell–Fleming model when there are capital controls in place, Chinese monetary expansion is found to primarily affect Japan through trade. The income absorption effect of China's monetary expansion is substantial for Japan. China's monetary expansion results in significant increases in Japan's industrial production, exports and inflation, and decreases in the trade-weighted yen. After 24 months, monetary shocks in China forecast 20% of the variation in Japan's real trade balance. In contrast, U.S. monetary expansion results in contraction in Japan's industrial production, exports and trade balance (expenditure-switching). Monetary expansion in the Euro area does not significantly affect Japan. Structural vector error correction models and a factor-augmented model are estimated to establish robustness of results.     

Private bureaucracies,organizational efficiency,and Australia's manufacturing trade structure: a comparison with Japan

This study tests the hypothesis that use of in-house information services, which are approximated by the relative size of private bureaucracies or the ‘management sector’, is a statistically significant determinant of Australia's manufacturing trade structure. Large private bureaucracies are a feature of industrialized economies. Their growth, and concomitantly huge resource use, suggest that informational and organizational efficiency have become of paramount importance for economic development. However, variables trying to capture these phenomena are neglected in mainstream trade analysis. The study is conducted for a cross-section of Australian industries and the results are compared with those obtained from a similar study for Japan. The empirical results confirm the importance of private bureaucracies as a trade determinant. Moreover, they seem to dominate some major conventional factors. In the Australian case, the new variables capture an increasingly important aspect of ‘human capital’, i.e., its potentially inefficient use due to lack of organizational innovation. Comparison with Japan indicates major structural weaknesses of Australian manufacturing which hinder the development of a revealed comparative advantage and exports. The paper also comments on the controversial debate concerning Australia's current account deficit, and on the broad implications of the study's findings for economic policy. It concludes with suggestions for further research.     

异质性企业贸易理论的起源与发展

本文旨在系统性地探究异质性企业贸易理论的起源与发展过程。首先对促使该理论诞生的实证挑战从企业的选择性出口、市场进入成本、资源再分配三个方面进行了综述;然后指出该理论发展的两条脉络和各自的理论基础,并在此基础上从平均生产率和贸易利得两个角度阐述了异质性企业贸易理论和新贸易理论之间的紧密联系,二者最大的差别便在于对边际生产成本的处理上,前者以边际成本的异质性替代企业的异质性,后者则忽略了企业之间的异质性。同时,针对国内学者的一些认识,本文也提出了自己的看法。     

Foreign trade and innovation in domestic labor relations

For the most part, neoclassical trade theory has restricted its concerns to the effect that trade has on the production and distribution of commodities. It implicitly assumes that international trade leaves unchanged the institutional structure of domestic economies.The empirical evidence presented here supports the claim that international trade induces innovation in the institutions regulating the capital-labor relationship. Existing trade theories, neoclassical or otherwise, that assume away such changes give only a partial answer to one of the central questions a theory of trade must answer: What are the effects of trade, and are these effects beneficial?     

Political economy of China’s trade policy: the evidence from industrial protection in 1990s

The theory of the political economy of trade policy, combining public choice and neoclassical trade theories, studies the level and pattern of trade intervention from the perspective of policy decision-making process, by stressing on income distribution instead of economic efficiency. The paper attempts to apply such an endogenous trade theory to an empirical study of China. On the basis of a formal revised model of political economy of trade protection, it tests theoretical hypotheses concerning the political and economic determinants of cross-sector trade protection in the Chinese industry at various periods. The results show that trade protection in China fits into China’s national development strategy of fast catching-up with the developed world.     

Terms of trade and economic growth in Japan and Korea: an empirical analysis

This study examines the impact of terms of trade and terms of trade volatility on economic growth in Japan and Korea using time series data. The results of the Johansen (1988) cointegration method show that real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and terms of trade are jointly determined. Generally, an increase in terms of trade volatility will lead to a decrease in real GDP per capita. An increase in oil price will lead to a decrease in terms of trade. The results of the generalised forecast error variance decompositions show that the important contributors to real GDP per capita are different between Japan and Korea. A favourable and a less volatile terms of trade are important for economic growth.     

Gains and losses from potential bilateral US–China trade retaliation

Two closely related numerical general equilibrium models of world trade are used to analyze the potential consequences of US–China bilateral retaliation on trade flows and welfare. One is a conventional Armington trade model with five regions, the US, China, EU, Japan and the Rest of the World, and calibrated to a global 2009 micro consistent data set. The other is a modified version of this model with monetary non-neutrals and including China's trade surplus as an endogenous variable.Who may gain or loss from global trade conflicts spawned by adjustment pressures in the post crisis world is much debated. In a US–China trade conflict, Europe and Japan would seem gainers from preferential access to US and Chinese markets. The loss of markets would hurt the US, but moving closer to an optimal tariff could be the source of terms of trade gains. And the ease of substitution across trading partners' practices would determine costs for China.Results from the conventional model suggest that retaliation between the two countries can be welfare improving for the US as it substitutes expenditures into own goods and improve its terms of trade with non-retaliatory regions, while China and non-retaliatory regions may be adversely affected. Results in the endogenous trade surplus model from the central case model specification, however, suggest that both the US and the EU (the deficit regions) have welfare losses in most cases, while the surplus region, China, and the ROW have welfare gains. In both models, when the bilateral tariff rates are very high, gains accrue to the EU and Japan from trade diversion if the substitutions elasticities of imports are high. Costs are borne by the US and China in lost exports, lowered terms of trade and adjustment costs at home.     

So you want to build a trade model? Available resources and critical choices

This paper reviews recent developments in trade theory, data, and modeling to provide guidance to researchers who are building and using trade models. Our findings show that trade models have fallen behind the latest development in theory, in part because data collection has not (and arguably will not) be able to keep pace with the needs of models built to incorporate the latest theories. The direction, much less the magnitude, of the errors made due to the limitations of today's trade models is uncertain, which should be a grave concern to modelers and the policymakers who rely on these models.     

Foreign Trade of Manufactures and Men and Women’s Employment and Earnings in Germany and Japan

Using factor content analysis, this paper provides estimates of the effects of manufacturing trade expansion on men and women's employment in Germany and Japan, with breakdowns by world, OECD, and non-OECD trade. Evidence is found that foreign trade expansion had a more negative effect on women's than men's manufacturing employment in Japan and a roughly equal effect in Germany, with the difference between the countries driven by non-OECD trade. In spite of this, demand shifted away from women's manufacturing employment in Germany after the early-1970s, for both the manufacturing sector as a whole and for manufacturing industries with high female shares of employment, while no such labor demand shifts occurred in Japan. In the face of these differences in labor demand and of very similar increases in female labor supply, male-female hourly wage differences narrowed in Germany and widened in Japan, for both manufacturing and non-agricultural employees. It is concluded that shifts in neither labor supply nor labor demand fit with observed trends of male-female wage differences in Germany and Japan.     

SIZE DISTRIBUTION OF WORKERS' HOUSEIIOLD INCOME AND MACROECONOMIC ACTIVITIES IN JAPAN: 1963–88

An attempt is made to examine empirically the relationship between the size distribution of workers' household incomes and the variables expressing macroeconomic activities. As a preliminary implementation, the income shares are first estimated by decile groups and several subdivided top income groups. Applying Blinder and Esaki's regression approach to the estimated data, the ratio of job offers to applicants, inflation rate, and the terms of trade arc found to significantly affect the distribution. Of these variables, the terms of trade should be taken into account to ascertain precisely the income distribution in Japan where foreign trade heavily affects economic conditions.     

US–Japan Trade Frictions: The Past,the Present,and Implications for the US–China Trade War

The United States and Japan have been involved in trade frictions over a number of products including textiles, steel, automobiles, semi‐conductors, and agricultural products over the last 50 years. US–Japan trade frictions have taken basically two forms: (i) the United States attempting to restrict Japan's exports to the United States; and (ii) the United States attempting to increase its exports to Japan by “opening” the Japanese market. By putting pressure on Japan to adopt necessary measures, the United States sought to achieve two main objectives: (i) to reduce its trade deficit vis‐à‐vis Japan; and (ii) to protect and/or promote US industries. The United States failed to achieve the first objective, while some success was achieved for the second objective. The United States triggered a trade war against China with the objectives of: (i) reducing the bilateral trade deficit; and (ii) stopping unfair trade practices by Chinese firms such as violations of intellectual property rights and forced technology transfer. Based on the experiences from the US–Japan trade frictions, the United States may achieve some success for the second objective, but not for the first. The chances of achieving the second objective would increase if the United States cooperates with countries such as Japan and the European Union, which are faced with similar problems.