Testing of the rational expectations and structural neutrality hypotheses

In this paper we examine the tests of the new classical rational expectations and structural neutrality hypotheses undertaken by Leiderman (1980) using a model of money growth and unemployment for the United States developed by Barro (1977). Employing the data used in the studies by Barro and Leiderman we are able to construct an alternative model of money growth and unemployment against which the Barro-Leiderman model is rejected along with the joint hypothesis of rational expectations and structural neutrality.     

The response of aggregate demand to income,money supply,and price level

The response elasticities of (nominal) aggregate demand to the price level and to other nominal variables (e.g., money supply) are both positive but smaller than one. Aggregate demand is less/as responsive to real income than/as to the price level in the short/long run. Real aggregate demand is less/as responsive to real income than/as nominal aggregate demand is to the price level in the short/long run. Some uses of these results are indicated.     

The lucas supply function and the feasibility of monetary stabilization policy with rational expectations

Zusammenfassung Die vorliegende Arbeit untersucht die Effektivität systematischer (d. h. regelgebundener) Geldpolitik in einem makroökonomischen Modell mit einer Lucas-Angebotsfunktion, rationalen Erwartungen und asymmetrischer Information. InMcCallum (1980) wurde dieses Modell anhand der Methode der unbestimmten Koeffizienten gelöst und gezeigt, daß die Notenbank die Varianz des Outputs durch die Wahl des Politikparameters in einer einfachen Geldmengenregel (autoregressiver Prozeß erster Ordnung) beeinflussen kann. Die Auswirkungen von monetären Schocks können dabei zwar gedämpft, aber nicht vollständig eliminiert werden.In der vorliegenden Arbeit wird das Modell anhand der Methode der forward looking solutions gelöst und gezeigt, daß esunendlich viele Geldmengenregeln gibt, welche den Output von Geldangebots- und Güternachfrageschocksperfekt abschirmen. Produktivitätsschocks können hingegen nur kurzfristig neutralisiert werden.

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I am indebted to H. Frisch, Ch. Peutl, and unknown referees for their valuable comments and suggestions.     

Testing the rational expectations and structural neutrality hypotheses: Some further results for the U.K.

In this paper we test directly for the restrictions implied by rational expectations and structural neutrality. The tests are direct in the sense that they employ theLucas output equation father than the approximations to it, which replace the lagged output term by lagged monetary shocks, commonly considered in the literature. The direct approach is considered preferable because it avoids these ad hoc approximations and saves significantly on degrees of freedom. The latter permits us to pursue a fully nested testing procedure, which was not possible in earlier work employing postwar U.K. annual data. The main result is that the rational expectations restrictions are not accepted.     

Estimation of a simple class of multivariate rational expectations models: A test of the new classical model at a sectoral level

This paper extends the results obtained by Pagan (1984) and Turkington (1985) for single equation rational expectations (RE) models to multivariate RE models and shows that the errorsin-variables method and the substitution method discussed in Wickens (1982) lead to exactly the same likelihood function. The paper also considers multivariate RE models with unanticipated variables and includes an empirical application to the problem of testing the natural rate-rational expectations (NR-RE) hypothesis at the disaggregate level using U.S. data over the period 1955–1985.     

The nominal rate of interest, the rate of return on money, and inflationary expectations

This paper offers two modifications to the standard comparative-static analysis that help explain why nominal interest rates may either over- or under-adjust to a change in inflationary expectations, even in full general equilibrium: the inclusion of the real rate of return to money balances in commodity demand functions, and the presence of differing costs of obtaining information. In brief, the first factor may explain why nominal interest rates could over-adjust to a change in inflationary expectations, while the second may substitute for real balance effects in limiting the upward adjustment of nominal rates.     

The treatment of uncertainty in the application of rational expectations to the analysis of economic policy

This study uses a familiar set of variables to characterize the determinants of training (based around individual characteristics, qualifications, and workplace characteristics). However, it goes further by using data drawn from a recent quarter of the UK Labour Force Survey, and thus contains an up-to-date and extensive set of core variables. The dependent variable used covers three subgroups: those who have never been offered training by their current employer; those who have been offered but did not receive training in the last three months; and those workers who received training within the last three months. The hypothesis that large employers not only provide more work-related training, but that they are also more willing to train workers with characteristics that indicate a lower probability of obtaining a return on any investment outlay, is tested. This was confirmed (especially for male workers), along with a range of results that mostly accord with previous studies into the determinants of UK employer-based training.     

The supply of skills in the labor force and aggregate output volatility

The cyclical volatility of US gross domestic product suddenly declined during the early 1980s and remained low for over 20 years. I develop a labor search model with worker heterogeneity and match-specific costs to show how an increase in the supply of high-skill workers can contribute to a decrease in aggregate output volatility. In the model, firms react to changes in the distribution of skills by creating jobs designed specifically for high-skill workers. The new worker–firm matches are more profitable and less likely to break apart due to productivity shocks. Aggregate output volatility falls because the labor market stabilizes on the extensive margin. In a simple calibration exercise, the labor market based mechanism generates a substantial portion of the observed changes in output volatility.     

A simple model of income,aggregate demand and the process of credit creation by private banks

This paper presents a small macroeconomic model describing the main mechanisms of the process of creation by the private banking system. The model is composed of a core unit—where the dynamics of income, credit and aggregate demand are determined—and a set of sectoral accounts that ensure its stock-flow consistency. In order to grasp the role of credit and banks on the functioning of the economic system we make an explicit distinction between planned and realized variables, thanks to which, while maintaining the ex-post accounting consistency, we are able to introduce an ex-ante wedge between current aggregate income and planned expenditure. Private banks are the only economic agents capable of filling this gap through the creation of new credit. Through the use of numerical simulation we discuss the link between credit creation and the expansion of economic activity, also contributing to a recent academic debate on the relation between income, debt and aggregate demand.     

The supply of new germ plasm to the Canadian beef cattle industry

This study examines the factors affecting the supply of new germ plasm, a necessary condition for genetic-based technological change, in the Canadian beef cattle industry. The analysis concentrates on the factors affecting the establishment of purebred cattle enterprises geographically and over time. The results suggest a consistent pattern of location across breeds and over time. Additional results point to some of the problems from estimating the process of diffusion when the process is incomplete. Implications for the beef cattle industry are presented.     

Empirical determination of aggregate demand and supply curves: The example of the RWI Business Cycle Model

Macroeconometric models are often criticised for being too complex and difficult to read in theoretical terms. To overcome these difficulties, Hickman suggested the calculation of a model's implicit aggregate demand/supply (AD/AS) structure. The method helps to understand models and their main properties in theoretical terms and facilitates detailed model comparisons. This paper uses the AD/AS–IS/LM apparatus to analyse the simulation properties of the RWI (Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) Business Cycle Model, a medium-sized short-term macroeconometric model for Germany. The results confirm theoretical expectations for AD and AS elasticities and reveal particular reactions linked to peculiar model specifications such as an endogenous government sector. The results are also much in line with a previous study in a multi-country model context.     

A matrix approach to the Gini index decomposition by subgroup and by income source

The literature offers two main ways of decomposing the Gini index: decomposition by population subgroup and by income source. This article proposes merging the two decomposition dimensions by suggesting a matrix formula for the Gini index which permits the simultaneous decomposition by subgroup and by income source. Using this multi‐decomposition, one can investigate the role of the interaction between the subgroup and the source components in determining the overall inequality. We apply the methodology to sample data on Italian household incomes collected in 2008.     

新企业所得税法实施对欠发达地区（宿迁）经济的影响

新企业所得税法的实施,对我国内外资企业发展、引进外资和地方经济发展等方面产生了重大影响。宿迁市作为一个经济欠发达地区,新税法的实施,有助于促进宿迁市农业产业化,促进高新技术企业的发展,提高企业市场竞争力和外资引进的质量和水平。为应对新税法的实施,宿迁市应充分利用新税法的税收政策和结合地区特点,促进农业规模化 促进传统产业高新技术化和高新技术产业化 创造公平的竞争环境和改善投资环境,促进本地区经济协调快速发展。     

固本培源 强基蓄劲 大力提升争当先锋的新思路新作为

国际金融危机发生以来，福建省南安市采取了一系列固本培源之策，不仅稳住了经济运行的大盘，而且在产业、企业、项目、招商等方面孕育形成诸多新的亮点或突破。在经济回暖日渐明朗的形势下，固本培源仍是不可放松的基础性工作，必须进一步深化认识，持续作为，才能先人一步谋求发展提升，蓄势待发赢得领先站位。     

Correction to: The devil is in the details: Capital stock estimation and aggregate productivity growth—An application to the Spanish economy

Portuguese Economic Journal -