Twin Deficits in the European Countries

Public debt is a burden on future electors and taxpayers. In the absence of constitutional constraints, the incumbent government may show the cost of some public expenditures or tax reductions toward the future by financing them via new debt. However, according to the Ricardian theorem of public debt, the burden of debt is always anticipated via increased saving. If this theorem were true, a budget deficit would not affect the current account of the balance of payment. This paper analyzes the relationship between trade deficit and budget deficit. Using yearly data for the period between 1970 and 2010 in 33 European countries, we find evidence supporting the hypothesis that a chronic and robust budget deficit generates a trade deficit. The dynamic estimates show that a 1 % decrease in the government budget surplus/GDP ratio tends to deteriorate the current account/GDP ratio of 0.37 %, confirming previous studies with a different empirical basis. Dividing the sample period into two sub-periods (1970–1991 and 1992–2010), empirical findings show that current and past values of government budget influence trade balance in the first sub-period, whilst past values of government budget affect trade balance in the most recent years. Moreover, the estimated effect of government budget on current account balance is positive and equal to 0.48 and 0.30, respectively. For the high deficit countries, a long-run relationship between these variables has been found, showing that one percentage point increase in budget surplus/GDP ratio is associated with an improvement in the current account balance of roughly 0.15 percentage point. The estimated long-run government budget elasticity is negative and statistically significant, while the estimated speed of adjustment is equal to 0.33. Finally, Granger causality tests show mixed results.     

Extremal Economic (Inter)Dependence Studies: A Case of the Eastern European Countries

This paper considers the application of copula models to study the shifts in extremal economic dependence of the Eastern European countries, i.e., Ukraine and its neighbouring countries, from 1969 to 2014. Extremal economic dependence is analysed in terms of poverty and affluence and with regard to growth rate. This paper contributes to the previous literature by applying the copula approaches to derive the measurements of the economic interdependence in terms of poverty and affluence. The received results depict the pattern of the (inter)dependence and its evolution across the analysed countries. Dependence on other countries in the extreme values can potentially be useful in adjustments of the economic policy of a country to minimize poverty and prevent high inequality.

     

后危机时代转轨国家经济发展模式的转变——以俄罗斯及中东欧国家为例

本文在分析了转轨国家面临的被西欧外资银行所控制的金融系统、外资银行为主导的银行信贷模式和个人房贷为主体的信贷结构,以及高负债、高投资的经济模式和依赖资源或能源出口的经济模式等主要问题基础上,总结了俄罗斯及中东欧转轨国家经济发展模式向自主创新、内外需结合型经济转变,出口商品向多元化销售渠道、多样化商品结构以及高技术含量转变的主要动向,提出了转轨国家经济结构调整方向的政策建议。     

论企业家经济理性的当代意蕴

企业家作为一种特殊的生产要素,是一种稀缺资源,他们在经济活动中的特殊作用是对经济资源进行组织和协调。在我国现阶段,企业家本质上还仅仅是物质资本的所有者或其代表。企业家经济理性就是个人利益中的那种一般的相对稳定的东西,是人最强大的利益基础,它表现为人在没有其他影响的情况下通常不能放弃的利益。要重构企业家的经济理性,就不得不承认这种利益。     

The demand for money during a period of inflationary expectations. Some FIML based estimates for Greece

This paper estimates and tests a model of the demand for money function, which uses the public's expectations of future inflation as a proxy of the opportunity cost of holding money. The hallmark of the paper is that expectations are rational inMuth sense. The cross-equation rational expectations restrictions are derived and then tested, using quarterly Greek data of the high inflation period 1973I to 1981 IV. The paper concludes that the evidence is consistent with the rational expectations assumption and supports the adopted specification of the money demand function.     

论社区经济与社区精神文明建设的整合

社区经济是在特定的区域范围内,利用社区资源优势发展,并为社区建设服务的一种特殊的经济类型.它具有地域性、社会性、服务性和多样性等特征.社区经济不仅是社区精神文明建设的客观要求,而且是社区精神文明建设的重要保证,它在社区精神文明建设中具有十分重要的地位和作用.为此,必须大力发展社区经济,并把社区经济和社区精神文明建设有机地结合起来,共同促进社区内两个文明的协调发展.     

论经济全球化中发展中国家对经济主权问题的认识

对于经济全球化给发展中国家主权带来的问题，发展中国家的认识经历了由盲目到觉醒的过程，主要表现是：实现了“让渡”经济主权无限性到有限性的转变；实现了不愿让渡到主动让渡部分经济主权的转变；实现了由不干预、放任到自觉强化主权、加强适度干预的转变。     

后进国家经济增长机制研究

“干中学”在经济增长中起着重要的作用,对于后进国家尤为如此。但是,它在其中究竟起着怎样的作用,到底是“干中 学”,还是“开放”在起作用?具体的经济机制是什么,却是含糊不清的。本文指出了两点主要特征,首先,“干中学”是与资本积累过程联系在一起的,迅速地实现赶超速度是伴随着资本积累增长过程而实现的。其次,“干中学”使得资源配置有利于技术模仿,长期来看,不能鼓励技术创新和知识积累。因此,“干中学”增长机制的作用是历史的、有条件的。     

Challenges and Economic Development Factors of the EU Countries

International Advances in Economic Research -     

On the Welfare Cost of Economic Fluctuations in Developing Countries*

Macroeconomic fluctuations are much stronger in developing countries than in the United States. Yet, while a large literature debates the welfare cost of economic fluctuations in the United States, it remains an open question how large that cost is in developing countries. Using several models, we provide such a measure. We find that the welfare cost of consumption volatility per se is far from trivial and averages a substantial multiple of the corresponding U.S. estimate. Moreover, in many poor countries, the welfare gain from eliminating volatility may in fact exceed the welfare gain from an additional percentage point of growth forever.     

Explaining Differences in Economic Growth among OECD Countries

This paper re-examines the determinants of growth of GDP per capita using panel data for OECD countries for the period 1970–1999 with data averaged over five-year periods from new perspectives. First, we introduce indicators of innovation input and technological specialization simultaneously into the empirical growth equation. Second, we employ the system-GMM (Generalized-Method-of-Moments) panel estimator that controls for (a) the possible specification bias when variables are highly persistent over time and (b) the possible simultaneity bias. We find a large and statistically significant impact of business enterprise R&D (BERD) intensity on GDP per capita with an elasticity of 0.22. The share of high-technology exports is also significantly positively related to GDP per capita, but the magnitude suggests that BERD is more important than technological specialization in explaining the level of GDP per capita. Furthermore, we find that the budget deficit and government consumption (both measured as percentages of GDP) and the volatility of growth are significantly negatively related to GDP per capita.The authors would like to thank Gunther Tichy for helpful comments on an earlier draft of this article. We also thank the participants of the Austrian economic association conference (NOEG) and the Empirical Industrial Organization workshop at the WU WIEN for helpful comments. We gratefully acknowledge financial support from the OeNB Jubiläumsfonds Project and the Austrian Federal Ministry for Economy and Labor (BMWA).JEL codes: E62, H20, H50, O23, O40     

经济全球化与发达国家的物流

经济全球化在20世纪90年代迅速发展,其主要特征是：以计算机为基础的数字化光纤网络通讯和卫星和远程通讯等技术创新,突破了传统的时空限制,提供了覆盖全球的信息网络;以东欧剧变,苏联解体为标志的“两个平行的世界市场”解体,为整个世界形成统一的市场创造了条件;随着国际金融市场相继开放,金融国界正逐步消失,金融国际化的进程正在加快;随着跨国公司的全球生产和经营体系跨国化趋势日益加强,随着社会分工的日益精细和经济全球化的发展,物流理念开始对传统生产组织方式进行挑战,企业的生产由封闭转为开放,产品从原材料到产成品的各个环节都有可能分离出来,转由社会来实现。生产企业将整个社会经济系统看作一条为我所用的生产线是物流时代生产企业的特征之一,并由此淡化了生产活动在空间上的边界,从真正意义上实现了生产在流通和消费领域内的延伸。面对经济全球化的巨大浪潮,对物流相关理论的探讨必须有新的理念。     

发达国家工业化过程的特点及其启示

通过分析英、美、德、韩诸国的工业化过程特点,归纳出先行工业化国家工业化过程的普遍规律:工业发展均遵循从轻工业阶段到重化工业阶段的阶段发展路线;工业化水平距先进水平的差距越大,政府的干预强度越大;重视教育和技术创新;工业化进程与市场化密不可分.阐明了发达国家工业化过程的普遍规律及对我国的启示.     

债务型经济增长:当代发达国家的经济特征

2008年美国金融危机和近年一些发达国家相继发生的主权债务危机,从根本上不同于以往历次危机,展现了当代发达资本主义国家经济的债务化特征,即一方面资本过剩(流动性过剩)推动了金融资本投机性投资,依靠金融创新制造的"财富效应"来刺激虚假的购买力;另一方面,发达国家政府依靠债务来维持其庞大的财政开支。债务型经济增长是不可持续的,终将爆发危机进行强制性调整。     

经济全球化对发展中国家经济发展的影响与对策

随着经济全球化的发展,经济全球化自身存在的诸多不足与局限也日益显现.这些不足和局限对发展中国家的经济发展也带来了多方面的消极影响.对此,发展中国家需要在国内和国际两个层面建立起有效的发展机制,才能实现自己的经济发展目标.     

Seigniorage Wealth and Redistribution in Central and Eastern European Countries

The analysis presented in this article focuses on seigniorage revenues in five Central and Eastern European Countries: Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Romania. A comprehensive discrete period accounting framework for measuring the sources and uses of seigniorage in the 1990s is presented. The framework is based upon the gross concept of seigniorage that defines seigniorage in the broadest possible sense as the sum of revenues resulting from the monopoly power to issue money. Legal, institutional and operational details which are relevant for the creation of base money in a country are taken into account. The article reveals similarities and differences in seigniorage wealth between the countries under scrutiny, evaluates the magnitude of seigniorage and shows that accession to the European Monetary Union will create significant once-and-for-all gains of seigniorage wealth for the countries resulting from redistributing seigniorage wealth.