The accuracy of analysts' dividend forecasts around the world

We examine the link between the accuracy of consensus analysts' dividend forecasts, earnings predictability and dividend policies of firms in 39 countries from 1995 to 2004. For firms that display stronger dividend smoothing, as modeled by Lintner [Lintner, J., 1956. Distribution of incomes of corporations among dividends, retained earnings and taxes. American Economic Review 46, 97–113], there is a lower correlation between dividend and earnings forecast errors, with less of the earnings uncertainty being passed into dividend uncertainty. The link between earnings and dividend forecast errors is weaker in common-law, capital market-based countries and in countries with well-developed financial (debt and equity) markets, where firm managers have greater incentives to smooth dividends and to use dividends for signaling.     

Poverty and progress: choices for the developing world

Some development strategists equate progress with economic growth and others consider increased equity in income distribution or a reduction in poverty as indicators of progress. This report examined the empirical relationship between economic growth and income distribution using data derived from a number of recent comparative studies. Various studies supported the Kuznets hypothesis, which states that during the early phases of development income distribution worsens and improves during the later phases. These studies demonstrated that as per capita income increases in poor countries, income distribution worsens until the per capita income reaches the $800 level. After that level is reached, income distribution generally improves. In a study of 11 countries, the relationship, in recent years, between income growth for the rich and for the poor, and income growth for the country as a whole was examined. Of the 11 countries, Taiwan, Yugoslavia, Sri Lanka, Korea, and Costa Rica were ranked as good performers, since more than 30% of the increment in national income was allocated to the poorest 60% of the population. The countries of India, Philippines, Turkey, and Colombia were ranked as intermediate performers since 20-30% of the increment in national income went to the poorest 60%. Poor performance countries were Brazil, Mexico, and Peru. In these countries less than 20% of the income increment was allocated to the poorest 60%. A table provided comparative national income and income distribution data for the 11 countries. These findings did not permit an assessment of different development strategies; however, they did indicate that: 1) some countries, such as Taiwan, Yugoslavia, and Korea, achieved both rapid growth and greater income distribution equity; and that 2) although some countires, such as Sri Lanka, which stressed equity, grew less rapidly than other countries, such as Mexico, which stressed economic growth, the poor fared much better in the former countries than in the latter countries. The conclusion was reached that proverty must be reduced by: 1) improving income distribution; 2) promoting economic growth; and 3) reducing population growth. Efforts must be directed toward preventing the poor from falling behind the rich as development proceeds.     

Target price forecasts: The roles of the 52-week high price and recent investor sentiment

This paper reveals that in addition to fundamental factors, the 52-week high price and recent investor sentiment play an important role in analysts’ target price formation. Analysts’ forecasts of short-term earnings and long-term earnings growth are shown to be important explanatory variables for target prices; equally, the 52-week high price and recent investor sentiment are also shown to explain target price levels and especially target price biases. Our analysis additionally reveals that analysts place greater weight on these two non-fundamental factors in settings with greater task complexity and to some extent in those with greater resource constraints. Conversely, on balance, the results suggest that this increased reliance does not translate into an increased impact per unit of each non-fundamental factor on forecast bias. Finally, our results show that target prices are useful in predicting future stock returns beyond earnings forecasts and commonly used risk proxies. However, in an internally consistent fashion, the informativeness of target prices for future returns is significantly reduced when greater weight is placed on either the 52-week high or recent investor sentiment in the target price formation process.     

Investor protection and analysts’ cash flow forecasts around the world

We find that analysts are more likely to provide cash flow forecasts in countries with weak investor protection. This finding is consistent with our hypothesis that market participants demand (and analysts supply) cash flow information when weak investor protection results in earnings that are less likely to reflect underlying economic performance. Our results suggest that information intermediaries respond to market-based incentives to attenuate the adverse effects of country-level institutional factors on earnings’ usefulness. These findings contribute to the literature by shedding light on the institutional determinants of analysts’ research activities, and on the nature of the financial information they generate.     

The struggle for a smarter world

The coming knowledge society will see an acceleration in the trend towards increasing human intelligence begun hundreds of thousands of years ago. Many converging technologies will facilitate this acceleration of intelligence, including psychopharmacology, genetic engineering, nanotechnology and communications technology. The accelerating increase in intelligence will not just be in individual brains, but also in the social, political and economic systems that link those brains together. From growing individual and social intelligence we will create increasingly accurate models of the way the social and natural world works, and how best to achieve human ends. But the struggle for a smarter world will require a political struggle for greater liberty and equality to enable everyone to participate fully in social decision-making and to benefit from human enhancement.     

Rescuing drylands: a project for the world

Environmental hazards menace life-support systems in drylands worldwide; science and technology can play an important role in enabling the habitats and their people to cope with these. Desertification is a global issue, comparable to other generally-recognized global problems such as climate change, loss of biodiversity, and epidemic diseases. And desertification can be stopped, if science and technology are mobilized in the service of a determined international effort. Three global initiatives are essential: (1) a drought early-warning system; (2) international desertification research centers; and (3) an international program to develop water resource technologies.     

影响亚洲发展中国家的增长前景

根据亚洲开发银行（简称：亚行）发布的《亚洲发展展望补充》（ADOS）数据显示,欧洲日益恶化的金融及银行业危机和美国经济的疲软复苏正在对亚洲发展中国家的增长前景产生重压。     

Technical change: The prospects for manufacturing industry

Technical change will cause problems in the OECD area in all three sectors of manufacturing industry : consumer, intermediate, and capital goods. The author describes the factors influencing this process : the changes in demand, resource costs, competition, and technology. He discusses the growth and employment prospects for various sectors. It is a mistake to assume that the service sector will be able to absorb either the number or the type of workers displaced: structural unemployment poses a serious threat. Those countries able to adapt well to technical change are identified.     

Dividend policy: A selective review of results from around the world

In a “perfect” market, Miller and Modigliani's celebrated dividend irrelevance argument holds, whereby a dividend payment or omission is identical in impact to changes in a firm's share structure. Consequently, the dividend payment itself is irrelevant to valuation; what matters is the firm's free cash flow. In the real world, the institutional and financial structure of markets matters. In the United States, explanations of actual dividend policy usually stress transaction costs, information costs engendering signaling and agency costs, taxes, and the legal system. Under the U.S. financial system many of these factors tend to be similar across firms, so that it can be difficult to disentangle their effects. However, it is to be expected that in a financial system organized differently results from the United States may not hold, so we may be able to identify the importance of factors largely suppressed in the United States. In this selective review we look at results from both comparative and international studies of dividend policy. As might be expected, we find that institutional structure—including a country's financial system, institutions, culture, and industrial organization—is important in determining dividend policy.     

The accuracy of OECD forecasts of the international economy: balance of payments

This paper examines the accuracy of forecasts of the international economy made by the OECD. Our large data set, comprising some 5500 pairs of forecasts and outcomes, includes one-, two-, and three-step ahead semi-annual forecasts of eight components of the balance of payments for the G7 economies over a 20-year period. There is considerable variation in the accuracy of these forecasts. Although they are generally superior to naive and time-series predictions, there are some marked exceptions particularly as the forecast horizon lengthens. Forecasting error is overwhelmingly non-systematic. However, our study reveals numerous instances of forecasts which could be improved by a simple linear correction, or by incorporating information contained in known, recent forecast errors. The OECD's forecasts of services and private transfers, and official transfers are cause for particular concern: the accuracy of these forecasts is low, often below that of corresponding time-series forecasts, and rationality tests indicate that they are most prone to inefficiency and inconsistency.     

The crucial epoch: Essential knowledge for living in a world in transformation

Mankind is entering the most crucial epoch in its history. The global economic and socio-technical industrial system in place since World War II is coming to a close. What takes its place is up to mankind to decide. Drawing on current work in non-equilibrium thermodynamics, evolutionary biology, cybernetics and systems science theory, the author identifies crucial bifurcation epochs in human history where new biological species and human societies have evolved from the old, replacing themselves with better adapted successors. Although scientists speak of bifurcation as essentially random, human societies are able to exercise foresight and take purposeful action. At this critical juncture, as post-industrial civilization comes to an end, this is the choice that humanity is morally bound to exercise.     

The prospects for synthetic fuels in the UK

This is an attempt to answer the question: “What happens when oil and natural gas production start to decline?” Forecasts of the world production and demand for oil and gas are reviewed briefly and it is concluded that large scale production of synthetic oil from coal and oil shale in particular will have to start by about 2000, and that energy intensive processes for the production of fuels such as methanol and hydrogen from non-fossil sources will have to start on a large scale during the period 2000–2030.     

Sweden in the world: Some alternatives for a small state

This article summarises some studies of Sweden in the long-term international context, undertaken by the Swedish Secretariat for Future Studies. Four broad scenarios are presented; they contain international and domestic issues. They are then related to three images of Sweden that bring in solidarity with other countries, material wellbeing, and national and personal security. All these issues require public debate. The extent to which Sweden counts as a small state, and the implications of being one, are not clear-cut.     

The role of analyst forecasts in the momentum effect

We evaluate the extent to which sell-side equity analysts can facilitate market efficiency when there is increasing uncertainty about a stock's future value. The prevalence of the 52-week-high momentum anomaly, that can be largely attributed to information uncertainty, provides a setting for examining the value and timing of analysts' earnings forecast revisions. Our study finds that analysts can provide value-relevant signals to investors by picking up indicators of momentum. The ability to identify under or over-valued stocks suggests that analysts are important information intermediaries in the price-continuation momentum effect. However, we also observe pervasive asymmetric reaction to good and bad news throughout our study that is consistent with incentive-driven reporting and optimistic biases. Nevertheless, analysts' forecast revisions are informative at different stages to re-establish stock prices back to their fundamental valuation.     

Emerging themes in management control: A review of recent literature

This review starts from the lines of enquiry suggested by Otley et al. [Otley, D.T., Broadbent, J.M., Berry, A.J., 1995. Research in management control: an overview of its development. British Journal of Management 6, S31–S34] and develops these themes in the light of more recently published research. Hence this review is structured around the following emerging themes; Decision making for Strategic Control; Performance Management for Strategic Control; Control Models for Performance Management and Measurement; Management Control and New Forms of Organisation; Control and Risk; Culture and Control; and Practice and Theory.Whilst research has been evident in all of these areas, relatively little attention has been paid to information and communication technologies and its impact upon control system design and capability, nor did we find much literature on control and gender, or on control and sustainability. Further there has been relatively little research on control and risk or upon control and culture. The limitations of overarching frameworks are noted and we conclude that it seems essential to place more emphasis on research which attends to the relationship of control practices and theory which will require more embedded and collaborative research processes.     

The tragedy of the commons in a violent world

Earlier research has shown that the tragedy of the commons may be resolved by Folk theorems for dynamic games. In this article, we graft on a standard natural‐resource exploitation game the possibility to appropriate the resource through violent means. Because conflict emerges endogenously as resources get depleted, the threat supporting the cooperative outcome is no longer subgame perfect, and thus credible. The unique equilibrium is such that players exploit noncooperatively the resource when it is abundant, and they revert to conflict when it becomes scarce. The players' utility is shown to be lower even if conflict wastes no resources.