目标越精确越不愿意从线上转换到线下? ——目标精确性,产品信息强度与渠道转换意愿

重点探讨了目标精确性对消费者线上转线下渠道意愿影响的心理机制,以及使用线上渠道态度的中介机制。同时,研究产品信息强度对这种影响关系所产生的调节作用。研究采用240份问卷数据,发现目标精确性和线上向线下渠道转换意愿呈负相关,态度在目标精确性与线上向线下渠道转换意愿的关系中起中介作用。目标精确性与线上向线下渠道转换意愿的关系受到产品信息强度的负向调节,即在产品信息强度低时,消费者目标精确性越高,线上向线下渠道转换的意愿越低;在产品信息强度高时,消费者目标精确性高和低时线上向线下渠道转换意愿无差异。态度在产品信息强度调节目标精确性与线上向线下渠道转换意愿的关系中起中介作用。     

A dynamic migration theory and its evaluation for concrete systems

This paper presents a theoretical framework for analyzing multiregional migration as a stochastic process. The equation of motion is formulated as a master equation. A quasi-deterministic mean value equation is derived from the master equation. The analysis is focused on the solution of the mean value equation. Finally, it is described how the approach can be applied to empirical migration data in a study of migration processes in Canada for which the migration stress is evaluated. The relation to static random utility is also established. (author's)     

U.S. interstate labor force migration: An analysis of trends, net exchanges, and migration subsystems

The rich geography and complex temporal trends of U.S. interstate labor force migration are portrayed. The most commonly reported net migration statistics hide multi-faceted patterns of state-to-state exchange. Maps depicting net migration balances show that much population redistribution has been taking place counter to the popularly conceived Frostbelt-to-Sunbelt flow. Significant net migration exchange takes place within each of the major regions of the U.S. as well as between them.

Principal component analyses carried out on gross state-to-state flow tables for 1960–1965, 1965–1970, and 1970–1975 suggest the existence of a set of remarkably stable migration subsystems, despite the heralded net migration turnarounds in nonmetropolitan-to-metropolitan and south-to-north patterns of flow.     

Return Migration,Self‐selection and Entrepreneurship

Are return migrants more entrepreneurial? Existing literature has not addressed how estimating the impact of return migration on entrepreneurship is affected by double unobservable migrant self‐selection, both at the initial outward migration and at the final inward return migration stages. This paper exploits exogenous variation provided by the civil war and the incidence of agricultural plagues in Mozambique, as well as social unrest and other shocks in migrant destination countries. The results lend support to overall negative unobservable return migrant self‐selection, which results in an under‐estimation of the effects of return migration on entrepreneurial outcomes when using a ‘naïve’ estimator that does not control for self‐selection at both the initial migration and at the final return migration stages.     

区域间劳动力迁移对经济增长和地区差距的影响

本文利用一个30区域可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型,根据中国实际劳动力流动规模,并考虑了汇款、外地与本地劳动力工资差异、人口流动滞后于劳动力流动等多种因素,定量分析了区域间劳动力迁移的经济影响。结果显示,区域间劳动力迁移可以有效改善配置效率,提高经济增速缩小地区间生活水平差距,但由于在一国内部资本流动性很强,存在"资本追逐劳动"现象,因此并不能缩小人均GDP的地区差距。虽然劳动力迁移显著提高了输出的人均收入和消费水平,但单纯的劳动力输出并不能缩小同发达地区人均产出的差距。     

DOES MIGRATION REDUCE REGIONAL DISPARITIES? THE ROLE OF SKILL‐SELECTIVE FLOWS

The existence of income per capita disparities is a striking feature of European regional development, while increasing internal migration is often cited as a convergence factor. This paper states that this argument is too simple if migration concerns skilled workers. To support this statement, the focus is on skill-selective migration flows: first, it is shown how easily they can happen (for instance, they can be caused by different regional wage settings); then, a model is used to investigate the effects of different regional endowments of immobile factors on migration. The model shows that skill-selective migration can, in some cases, lead to increasing income per capita disparities and, for this reason, policy makers need to pay attention when attempting to narrow regional disparities by easing interregional migration.     

Nested logit model and maximum quasi-likelihood method: A flexible methodology for analyzing interregional migration patterns

A flexible methodology for explaining interregional migration in terms of relevant socioeconomic variables is set forth in this paper. Concerned with setting observation against theory, it makes use of (1) the nested logit model as a theoretical substratum, and (2) the maximum quasi-likelihood method as a method for parameter estimation and statistical inference. Application to interprovincial migration data over a 22-year period (1961–1962 to 1982–1983) shows that, in Canada, migration does not appear to serve well as an equalizer of economic opportunities.     

Migration within England and Wales and the Housing Market

Economic conditions exert a strong influence on regional migration. On the one hand, strong labour market conditions, as exemplified by low unemployment rates and high earnings, draw migrants into regions. On the other hand, strong housing market conditions can prevent movement since commuting may often be an alternative to migration. This can be thought of as giving rise to a migration equilibrium where high house prices choke off migration caused by strong labour market conditions. Expected capital gains in housing, however, can offset high levels of house prices, an effect ignored in previous literature. Migration can also be influenced more directly by the availability of housing relative to population without this being mediated through prices. This paper, by Gavin Cameron, John Muellbauer and Anthony Murphy, presents evidence on inter‐regional net and gross migration between the regions of England and Wales that is broadly in accord with these expectations.     

Nested logit model and maximum quasi-likelihood method: a flexible methodology for analyzing interregional migration patterns

"A flexible methodology for explaining interregional migration in terms of relevant socioeconomic variables is set forth in this paper. Concerned with setting observation against theory, it makes use of (1) the nested logit model as a theoretical substratum, and (2) the maximum quasi-likelihood method as a method for parameter estimation and statistical inference. Application to interprovincial migration data over a 22-year period (1961-1962 to 1982-1983) shows that, in Canada, migration does not appear to serve well as an equalizer of economic opportunities."     

Regional growth and interstate migration

The current study examines a simultaneous equation model of interstate migration using income growth, employment growth, unemployment growth, population growth, gross migration, and employment in manufacturing as endogenous variables. The results show that neither the growth of employment nor the growth of income in the destination location has been directly important determinants of migration flow. However, an indirect effect through the population variable can be discerned for these variables, and this has important policy implications. A key feature of this migration model is that it incorporates most of the determinant factors as rates of change over time. The study sheds light on the joint and indirect effects of migration and other endogenous variables and draws some important policy implications pertaining to growth.     

International migration: facts,figures, policies

Recent trends in international migration in OECD member countries are summarized using data from the SOPEMI system, under which OECD countries report annually on international migration affecting them. The synopsis includes a review of recent changes in migration policies, as well as a summary of the impact of immigration on employment and demographic trends.     

Demand substitution across US cities: Observable similarity and home price correlation

This paper studies demand substitution in the context of US cities. Demand substitution occurs when individuals on the margin between certain city pairs affect demand patterns in the aggregate, causing certain cities to be better substitutes than others. Using a discrete model of city choice, I derive two predictions for migration flows and test them empirically using city-to-city migration data from the US Census. I show that cities which are similar on a variety of observable measures have higher levels of gross migration flows in the steady state and higher net migration flows in response to labor demand shocks. Finally, I propose pairwise correlation in metropolitan home prices as a price-based measure of substitutability and show that it contains substantial predictive power for migration flows relative to observable similarity.     

Welfare migration in Europe

The enlargement of the European Union has increased concerns about the role of generous welfare transfers in attracting migrants. This paper explores the issue of welfare migration across the countries of the pre-enlargement European Union and finds a significant but small effect of the generosity of welfare on migration decisions. This effect, however, is still large enough to distort the distribution of migration flows and, possibly, offset the potential benefits of migration as an inflow of mobile labour into countries with traditionally immobile native workers.     

基于实物期权视角的中国农村劳动力转移分析:1949～2005年

基于我国农村劳动力流动历史和现状特征,本文考虑到城市相对工资的非连续变化特征,借鉴实物期权思想建立了二部门、三部门及四部门经济中跳跃扩散过程下的农村和城市间劳动力流动模型。我们的分析性结论和数值案例结论都表明,劳动力在部门之间转移成本越大,劳动力越不愿意在部门之间转移,相比之下更倾向于向其他可能存在的部门转移。我们据此提出了我国农村劳动力制度改革的参考建议。     

Immigrants’ Wage Growth and Selective Out‐Migration

This paper examines immigrant wage growth taking selective out‐migration into account using administrative data from the Netherlands. Addressing a limitation in the previous literature, we address the potential endogeneity of immigrants’ labour supply and out‐migration decisions on their earning profiles using a correlated competing risk model. We distinguish between labour and family migrants, given their different labour market and out‐migration behaviours. Our findings show that accounting for selective labour supply is as important as accounting for selective out‐migration. Controlling only for out‐migration selectivity would underestimate immigrants’ wage growth, whilst controlling only for labour market selectivity would overestimate their wage growth. This shows that different selections are important for different types of migrants.     

The effect of agricultural price-support policies on interregional and rural-to-urban migration in Korea: 1976-1980

The impact of rice price-support policies, designed to increase farmers' income and reduce rural-urban migration in the Republic of Korea, is examined for the period 1976-1980 using a polytomous logistic model. "Our findings revealed that the elasticity of migration with respect to rice yield per origin farm household is positive and is significantly different from zero. The elasticities of migration with respect to rate of urbanization, particularly urban concentration-agglomeration, and population size of the destination are also positive and are significantly different from zero....Our findings questioned the wisdom of employing rice price price-support programs as a viable policy for reducing interregional and rural-to-urban migration in Korea."     

Venture migration: a quest for a low-hanging fruit?

Venture migration, in addition to firm entry and exit, affects business stock in a region. This study draws on mainstream entrepreneurship and economic geography literatures to explore the factors explaining net venture migration. Using a data-set on 88 Ohio counties during 2000–2006, it suggests that venture migration is largely a quest for a low-hanging fruit. Relocating firms are drawn to areas with higher sales tax rates that give them access to interest-free financing, higher unemployment rates and better-qualified workforce as well as ample arbitrage opportunities. At the same time, innovative opportunities do not attract migrating ventures.     

A fuzzy bi-level method for modeling age-specific migration

Modeling and forecasting international migration are significant research areas since migration forecasts are vital in decision making and policy design regarding economy, security, society, and resource allocation. The methods for modeling and forecasting migration rely on strict subjective or statistical assumptions which may not always be met. In addition, lack of a universally accepted definition of the term “migrant” and the ambiguities in data due to recording and collection systems result in inconsistencies and vagueness in migration modeling. Considering these, in this paper, a fuzzy bi-level age-specific migration modeling method is proposed. The bi-level structure embedded in the model makes use of the well-known Lee-Carter method as well as fuzzy regression, singular value decomposition technique, and hierarchical clustering to reflect the general characteristics of the country of concern together with the distinct emigration and immigration behaviors of the age groups. Bayesian time series models are fitted to the time-variant fuzzy parameters obtained through the proposed method to forecast future migration values. The proposed method is applied on female and male age-specific emigration and immigration counts of Finland for 1990–2010 period and Germany for 1995–2012 period, and the future values are forecasted for 2011–2025 and 2013–2025 respectively. The method is compared with an existing Bayesian approach and the numerical findings display that the proposed fuzzy method is superior to the existing one in modeling and forecasting age-specific migration values within significantly narrower prediction intervals.     

Migration in late working age and early retirement

The publication of population forecasts for small areas has highlighted the primitive basis for their migration components, while a recent growth of interest in the migration of elderly people has revealed pronounced differentials by age, sex and marital status. The paper presents a detailed examination of these differentials from United States and British census sources. It shows that improved forecasts of the volume of internal migration are produced by combining age specific participation rates with population forecasts for single or quinquennial years of age. Different series, based on different elderly cohorts, diverge in their forecasts by as much as 20%. Illustrative forecasts are presented and some implications for migration theory are discussed.     

Migration of young labor force entrants

The analysis focuses on what factors encourage or discourage migration among recent high school graduates. Youth represent an important group to study because they have the highest rates of both job and location mobility in the U.S. population. Of interest to policy-makers is the role of migration in the school-to-work transition and its more general role as a manpower allocation mechanism.

The empirical specification is based on a theoretical model of individual decision-making in Black [1]. A logit model of the probability of migration is estimated separately by elapsed time since graduation, sex, and marital status. The data source consists of the National Longitudinal Study of the High School Class of 1972 that has been merged with local labor market data from the 1970 decennial census. The analysis yields several insights into the determinants of migration: local labor market conditions, an individual's employment success, migration experience before and after high school graduation, and personal characteristics such as aptitude, sex, family status, school experience, and family background.