Post-war mortality among industrial insured lives in Norway

Abstract

The results of mortality investigations among industrial insured lives with weekly premiums in the Norwegian life insurance company Fram for the period 1931/40 and for the period 1940/46 have earlier been published in this journal.l It is now possible to render the main results of the continued investigation for the post-war years 1946/50.     

The mortality among industrial insured lives in Norway during the war

In the Norwegian life insurance company Fram a continuous mortality investigation takes place in connection with the yearly valuation of policies issued with weekly premiums. The investigation gives the aggregate mortality, the unit is the policy and the year of observation is the calendar year. A detailed account of the method used has been given by Fredrik Borch in his paper: “The mortality among industrial insured lives in Norway 1931–1940” in this journal 1943. The most important results of the investigation from the years 1940–1946 are rendered below.     

Comparison of body mass index and waist circumference as predictors of all-cause mortality in a male insured lives population

Obesity assessed by body mass index (BMI) is associated with increased mortality risk, but there is uncertainty about whether BMI is the best way to measure obesity. Waist circumference (WC) has been proposed as a better measure. The Swiss Re BMI/WC Study was conducted to determine whether BMI or WC is a better predictor of future all-cause mortality in a large male insurance population. Using Cox proportional hazard models, risk ratios for increasing BMI and WC were 1.033 (P < .001) and 1.027 (P < .001), respectively. Risk ratios for obesity defined by BMI > or = 30 kg/m2 and WC > or = 40 inches were 1.33 (P < .001) and 1.20 (P = .002), respectively. In this study, BMI and WC are essentially equivalent in their ability to predict mortality risk in a male insurance population. Obesity, measured by either BMI or WC, has important underwriting and pricing implications.     

Pricing implications of trends in population mortality and underwriting effectiveness

Pricing actuaries try to anticipate insured lives mortality rates for decades into the future by considering historic relationships between population and insured lives mortality and trends in population mortality. The degree to which underwriting might decrease insured lives mortality relative to population mortality is of particular importance. A comparison of trends in population and insured mortality is presented to illustrate historic relationships. Two theories for future life expectancy trends are: 1) no foreseeable limit to life expectancy, and 2) life expectancy limited by biological forces. Factors that may increase or decrease the future effectiveness of underwriting are reviewed.     

Migration and manpower needs in the Middle East and North Africa, 1975-85

The authors review current flows and expected changes in the volume and characteristics of international labor migration to eight oil-producing Middle East countries. The implications for both labor-exporting and importing countries are explored     

A Possibilitarian History of Price Change Accounting in the UK: 1971-1985

This paper offers a 'possibilitarian' analysis of the history of price change accounting in the UK, exploring how events might have turned out differently at a number of key nodal points. It argues that a stable current cost accounting regime could have been established significantly before SSAP16 was in fact adopted or, alternately, that the retreat from SSAP16 could have been managed in a way that would have maintained compliance with current cost accounting. Had a substantial period of widespread compliance within a stable regime eventuated, a quite different dynamic might have emerged, including significant user pressure to maintain current cost accounting, thereby underpinning the regime and leading to its long-term survival.     

Ferranti and the accountant, 1896-1975: The struggle between priorities and reality

As a firm which was owned and managed by three generations of the same family over the period 1896-1975, Ferranti was one of the most innovative and successful British electrical and electronics companies of its era. The family remained committed to a technology-led strategy which was implemented through a highly devolved form of organization, giving departmental managers considerable freedom to develop new ideas. This long-termism was also backed up by an extensive reporting system which evolved over the period after 1896, providing senior management with accurate information on both corporate and departmental performance. The article considers how the family matched the images conjured up by the accounting data with the commitment to engineering innovation, concluding that the latter frequently remained the most important priority in this highly unusual British firm.     

Pricing currency risk in the stock market: Evidence from Finland and Sweden 1970-2009

We investigate the role of currency risk on stock markets in two interlinked Nordic countries exhibiting a gradual move from fixed to floating exchange rates. We apply the Ding and Engle (2001) covariance stationary specification in a multivariate GARCH-M setup to test a conditional international asset pricing model. Using a sample period from 1970 to 2009, we find that the currency risk is priced in both stock markets, and that the price and the risk premium are lower after the floatation of the currencies, especially for Finland. We also find the cross-country exchange rate shock from Finland to affect the price of currency risk in Sweden, but not vice versa. Finally, we discuss some of the potential issues in applying multivariate GARCH-M specifications in tests of asset pricing models.     

Note on a new method of construction of mortality tables when the number of lives exposed to risk is unknown

Abstract

It has been known for some time that the d^bx column in a mortality table can be considered as a compound frequency curve with a limited number of maxima and minima. From a theoretical point of view this is of course a self evident conclusion which follows directly from the so-called genetic theory of frequency originally introduced by Laplace. He showed that any frequency distribution can be considered or generated as the sum of a very large number of elementary errors, referrable to several sources of error, each group or error having its own peculiar law of error. While the pure theory of the generation of frequency curves from such secondary sources of elementary errors is simple enough, the inverse and essentially practical problem of decomposing a compound frequency curve into its component or constituent elements is by no means simple and often presents great difficulties, especially if certain restrictions are imposed upon the component curves. An example of such restrictions would be the requirement that all the component curves should be normal Laplacean probability curves.     

The non mortality of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy in an unselected, community diagnosed and treated population

Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy (HC) is portrayed in past literature as having an ominous prognosis. However, most studies emanated from medical centers and suffered from potential referral bias. A population based, community diagnosed and treated survival study is analyzed by the life table method. Despite potential causes for both underestimation of the observed mortality as well as for overestimation of expected mortality, the study appears to reveal a more favorable prognosis for HC in this population.     

瑞典养老金改革：反思及借鉴

瑞典的福利制度曾保证了经济的持续增长和稳定的社会秩序,但随着世界经济形势的变化和瑞典社会结构的变迁,政府统揽的福利制度面临着严峻的挑战,迫切需要进行改革。本文以其养老金改革为例,在分析其体系面临问题的基础上对其改革的具体措施进行分析,对名义账户制的运行机制、养老金改革的转制成本、养老金改革对劳动力市场的影响等问题进行探讨。最后,本文根据瑞典养老金的发展和改革效果,结合我国的具体国情,提出了养老金制度的改革需要采用渐进性路径、保持制度可持续性等政策性建议。     

Consequences of a Commodity Boom in a Controlled Economy: Accumulation and Redistribution in Kenya 1975-83

The economic theory of "Dutch disease" is extended and appliedto the 1976–79 coffee boom in Kenya in this article. Whena commodity boom is perceived as temporary, a large fractionwill tend to be saved out of transient income. The spendingeffect of the boom is supplemented by relative price changesresulting from capital stock increases. In the presence of foreignexchange and import controls, the benefits of a sudden exportprice increase may be transferred intersectorally. Using a generalequilibrium model, it is estimated that in Kenya the benefitsof the boom were largely transferred from coffee growers tourban groups.     

A Note on Affordability and the Optimal Share Price

Despite the increase in institutional ownership, decreased trading costs, and increased real personal savings, we find that the average stock price is lower today than it was in the 1920s. In the aggregate, the propensity to split is a function of recent market performance, personal savings, and the desirability of appearing to be a small firm. Our results indicate that, after decades of inflation and the average stock price falling, splitting stocks to return to an affordable trading range must be rejected as an explanation. This suggests that other economic forces are behind splits, whether traditional or behavioral in nature.     

A Note on the Public Interest and Ethical Behaviour

The Joint Code of Professional Conduct of the Institute of Chartered Accountants in Australia has made the protection of the public interest the primary responsibility of chartered accountants. We argue that the traditional accounting practices to safeguard the interests of clients and employers are likely to be contrary to the public interest and represent unethical behaviour in terms of the code. We also argue that although there may be breaches of the code they are unlikely to result in disciplinary action as there is a low probability of complaints against members of the Institute.