发达国家税制改革及其启示

世纪80年代以来,发达国家根据各自国情,进行了具有划时代意义的税制改革,形成了世界性税制改革浪潮。发达国家税制改革的特点与发展趋势(一)特点1.降低个人所得税税率。从绝对值和百分比来看,削减幅度最大的是个人所得税的最高税率。根据OECD税收数据库资料统计,OECD国家的个人     

商业银行参与企业公司治理的国际经验

本文考察了主要发达国家商业银行在公司治理结构中的地位、方式以及发挥作用的条件,认为商业银行在公司治理中积极作用的发挥,取决于一国金融制度及其所决定的金融市场特征,并根据发达国家商业银行在公司治理结构中发挥的作用,对中国商业银行参与公司治理提出了若干建议。     

发达国家央行拉开加息序幕

2011年初以来,由于石油等国际大宗商品价格大幅上升,发达国家的通货膨胀压力日益增大。文章在依次分析欧洲、英国、美国的经济与通胀发展形势乃至其货币政策决策者观点后指出,欧洲中央银行加息拉开了发达国家央行加息的序幕,预计年内欧央行还可能加息;英格兰银行将视经济情况决定年内加息时机;美联储在退出量化宽松货币政策后,可能于今年底或明年初提高美元基准利率。     

Competitive and value effects of bank privatization in developed countries

A special issue of the Journal of Banking and Finance (2005) devoted to the performance of privatized banks in middle- and low-income countries shows mixed results. In this paper, we present evidence that shows that privatized banks in developed countries have experienced significant improvements in operating performance. The improvement in performance remains significant after controlling for persistence in bank performance. A comparison of the performance of privatized banks in developed and developing countries suggests that privatization has encouraged excessive risk taking among privatized banks in developing countries, with the consequence that those banks carry large non-performing assets than their counterparts in the developed countries. We also observe that consistent with the competitive effects hypothesis, investors view privatization announcements as foreshadowing bad news for rival banks.     

发达国家公共部门绩效管理的经验探析

文章探讨了公共部门绩效效管理及其基本要件,总结了发达国家公共部门绩效管理的经验。     

The predictability of debt-servicing difficulties among less developed countries

In this article, multivariate statistical models are derived for forecasting the emergence of arrears of debt-service among less-developed countries. The emphasis of the article is on prediction, and the criterion variable differs from that generally used in earlier research, which focuses on rescheduling. Out-of-sample tests are used to establish theex ante predictive utility of the derived models, which are found to have low error rates. Moreover, the predictive ability appears to be stable over time.     

发达国家自助银行的发展及其有益启示

一度消失的排队现象近来又出现在商业银行的营业大厅,且“上银行,排长队”的现象愈演愈烈,人们对此的抱怨越来越多,影响了银行的形象和声誉。解决银行排队问题的办法很多,例如：延长营业时间、增加营业柜员、增开营业窗口和发展自助银行等,其中借鉴发达国家的经验发展自助银行是较为有效的措施之一。本文从自助银行业务的发展入手,借鉴国外经验,针对我国自助银行业务发展中出现的问题,提出有效的解决方案。     

发达国家中央银行职能的理论与实践探讨

金融危机以来,主要发达国家的中央银行持续实施量化宽松政策,这在一定程度上模糊了货币政策与财政政策的界限,引起经济学界关于中央银行独立性问题的讨论。文章分析了中央银行独立性的概念和理论,回顾了主要发达国家量化宽松政策的实施过程,指出随着世界经济的逐步恢复与量化宽松政策的逐步退出,理顺政府与中央银行关系、强化中央银行的独立性对于保持经济长期稳定增长具有重要意义。     

发达国家促进就业的税收政策比较与借鉴

失业是市场经济条件下普遍存在的现象,失业率过高对经济健康发展和社会稳定带来负面影响。世界各国采取许多宏观经济政策,包括税收政策来促进就业。我国目前在利用税收政策促进就业方面做得还不够,应借鉴发达国家经验,对相关税收政策做进一步的调整。     

Sectoral analysis of foreign direct investment and growth in the developed countries

Empirical studies on foreign direct investment (FDI) and growth in developed countries have yielded conflicting results using cross-country regressions. We use sectoral data for a group of six country members of the OECD. Our paper is the first to identify the sector-specific impact of FDI on growth in the developed countries. Our results show that FDI has positive, or no statistically discernible, effect on economic growth directly and through its interaction with labor. Moreover, we find the effects seem to be very different across countries and economic sectors.     

How Continental Bank outsourced its "crown jewels."

No industry relies more on information than banking does, yet Continental, one of America's largest banks, outsources its information technology. Why? Because that's the best way to service the customers that form the core of the bank's business, says vice chairman Dick Huber. In the late 1970s and early 1980s, Continental participated heavily with Penn Square Bank in energy investments. When falling energy prices burst Penn Square's bubble in 1982, Continental was stuck with more than $1 billion in bad loans. Eight years later when Dick Huber came on board, Continental was working hard to restore its once solid reputation. Executives had made many tough decisions already, altering the bank's focus from retail to business banking and laying off thousands of employees. Yet management still needed to cut costs and improve services to stay afloat. Regulators, investors, and analysts were watching every step. Continental executives, eager to focus on the bank's core mission of serving business customers, decided to outsource one after another in-house service--from cafeteria services to information technology. While conventional wisdom holds that banks must retain complete internal control of IT, Continental bucked this argument when it entered into a ten-year, multimillion-dollar contract with Integrated Systems Solutions Corporation. Continental is already reaping benefits from outsourcing IT. Most important, Continental staffers today focus on their true core competencies: intimate knowledge of customers' needs and relationships with customers.     

Population policy,its scope and limits

Balancing population and food supplies is a problem as old as man, but the population problem today has three new facets. Supplies of food are spread unevenly over the globe without relation to population; medical science brings difficulties with its success in prolonging life and reducing infant mortality but also provides the means of controlling conception. Replacing the conventional picture of a dual world based on the level of development, the author presents here a four-celled matrix according to the ratio of resources to population. The envisaged population stabilising policies extend far beyond the field of family planning and may include radical changes in population mobility and food rationing in the next decade.     

Predictability of stock market returns: New evidence from developed and developing countries

Existing studies have concentrated on predicting stock market returns mainly in the U.S. market. We focus on the predictive power of the average correlation, an indicator of co-movements of returns on industry portfolios, and estimate a number of regression models using more than 10,000 monthly observations from 18 developed and 9 developing markets. We find that the average correlation is an effective predictor in most markets. This predictive power is not driven by the state of the economy. It is also not sensitive to subsample periods, although it is stronger in the most recent period and weaker during financial crises.     

The evolution of trade credit: new evidence from developed versus developing countries

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - Using a large sample of listed firms from 72 countries over the period 1990–2019, we document a marked decrease in trade credit that is more...     

Impact of COVID-19 on stock market efficiency: Evidence from developed countries

This study investigates the impact of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on stock market efficiency for six hard-hit developed countries, namely, the United States (US), Spain, the United Kingdom (UK), Italy, France, and Germany. Applying the wild bootstrap automatic variance ratio test on daily stock market data from July 29, 2019 to January 25, 2021, it is found that all stock markets used in this study deviate from market efficiency during some periods of the pandemic. Deviations from market efficiency are seen more in the stock markets of the US and UK during the COVID-19 outbreak than in other stock markets. These results are strengthened when a different econometric method, the automatic portmanteau test, is used. The findings of this study indicate an increasing chance for stock price predictions and abnormal returns during the COVID-19 pandemic.     

Spillover of fear: Evidence from the stock markets of five developed countries

This study investigates the spillover effect in five leading stock markets (i.e., the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, Japan, and France). It estimates the spillover indices of these countries and finds that information transmission between these stock markets increases considerably after 1998. Germany and the United States are the main stock markets conveying information to other international markets. Germany primarily influences the French stock market, and the United States significantly influences many other stock markets. Results show that the US stock market shows three periods during which its net spillover effect exceeds zero: the period prior to 1997, the dot-com bubble from 2000 to 2002, and the subprime mortgage crisis and Lehman Brothers bankruptcy from 2007 to 2008. The fear index correlates significantly with the spillover of the US stock market into other markets. The spillover effect of the US stock market demonstrates asymmetry and the likelihood to spread positive fundamental information and non-fundamental information (e.g., fear).     

Exchange rate pass-through in EMU acceding countries: Empirical analysis and policy implications

Countries that joined the European Union in 2004 have to decide when to adopt the Euro. This decision depends on the evaluation of the relative costs and benefits associated with giving up the exchange rate instrument. Recent empirical work on several new EU members has questioned the role of the exchange rate as a shock absorber, thus downplaying the potential costs in terms of macroeconomic stabilization. In this paper, we address the issue from a different perspective, emphasizing the role of pass-through from exchange rate to domestic inflation in new EU members. The focus is on four countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovenia – NM-4) that have adopted some form of floating or managed exchange rate regimes. The paper reports empirical results indicating high pass-through coefficients and links them to the degree of policy accommodation. High exchange rate pass-through in NM-4 indicates that stabilization of nominal exchange rates would lower inflationary pressures and help fulfill criteria to enter the EMU.     

Test of the J-curve for the DR-CAFTA countries and policy implications

There is evidence of a J-curve for the Dominican Republic and lack of support for a J-curve for Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras. The trade balance responds to real depreciation positively for Costa Rica and El Salvador, negatively in the short run and positively in the long run for the Dominican Republic, negatively for Guatemala, and positively in the short run and negatively in the long run for Honduras. In response to real depreciation, the trade balance between the Dominican Republic and the U.S. adjusts from a negative to positive value very slowly.     

The role of rating agency assessments in less developed countries: Impact of the proposed Basel guidelines

We assess the potential impact for non-high-income countries (NHICs) of linking bank capital asset requirements (CARs) to private sector ratings–as contemplated by the new Basel proposal. Specifically, we show that linking bank CARs to external ratings would have a series of undesirable effects for NHICs. First, since ratings are by far less widespread for banks and corporations in NHICs, bank CARs would be practically insensitive to improvements in the quality of assets, widening the gap between banks of equal financial strength located in higher and lower income countries. Second, bank and corporate ratings in NHICs (as opposed to their homologues in high-income countries) are strongly linked to their sovereign ratings. This would expose bank capital requirements in NHICs to the same “pro-cyclical” swings, which have characterized sovereign rating revision in the recent crisis episodes. We conclude that linking bank CARs to private sector ratings would worsen the availability and cost of credit to NHICs – with potential negative effects on the level of economic activity – and suggest that a reassessment of the Basel proposal may help to avoid such undesired consequences.     

Banking,debt, and currency crises in developed countries: Stylized facts and early warning indicators

We construct and explore a new quarterly dataset covering crisis episodes in 40 developed countries over 1970–2010. First, we present stylized facts on banking, debt, and currency crises. Using panel vector autoregression we find that banking and debt crises are interrelated and both typically precede currency crises, but not vice versa. Banking crises are the most costly in terms of the overall output loss, and output takes about six years to recover. Second, on a reduced sample we try to identify early warning indicators of crises specific to developed economies, accounting for model uncertainty by means of Bayesian model averaging. The most consistent result across the various specifications and time horizons is that significant growth of domestic private credit precedes banking crises, while rising money market rates and global corporate spreads are also leading indicators worth monitoring. For currency crises, we also corroborate the role of rising domestic private credit and money market rates and detect the relevance of domestic currency overvaluation. The role of other indicators differs according to the type of crisis and the warning horizon selected, but it mostly seems easier to find reliable predictors at a horizon shorter than two years. Early warning indicators of debt crises are difficult to uncover due to the low occurrence of such episodes in our dataset. We also employ a signaling approach to derive the threshold value for the best single indicator (domestic private credit), and finally we provide a composite early warning index that further increases the usefulness of the model.