The selection of migrants and returnees in Romania

This paper uses census and survey data to identify the wage earning ability and the selection of recent Romanian migrants and returnees on observable characteristics. We construct measures of selection across skill groups and estimate the average and the skill‐specific premium for migration and return for three typical destinations of Romanian migrants after 1990. Once we account for migration costs, we find evidence that the selection and sorting of migrants are driven by different returns to skills in countries of destination. Our identification strategy for the effects of work experience abroad permits a cautious causal interpretation of the premium to return migration. This premium increases with migrants' skills and drives the positive selection of returnees relative to non‐migrants. Based on the compatibility of the results with rationality in the migration decisions, we simulate a rational‐agent model of education, migration and return. Our results suggest that for a source country like Romania relatively high rates of temporary migration might have positive long‐run effects on average skills and wages.     

Work and welfare take-up of enlargement migrants in the United Kingdom

The Brexit decision was affected by the false perception that European Union (EU) enlargement migration, in particular from Romania and Bulgaria (EU2), has been a burden to the UK. The article analyses the debated but largely underresearched EU2 migration to the UK after accession to the EU in 2007 using data of the British Labour Force Survey. The novel findings are that EU2 migrants are found to exhibit quite different characteristics and behaviour than the other European migrants while doing better concerning work, self-employment and welfare take-up.     

On the estimation and forecasting of international migration: how relevant is heterogeneity across countries?

This paper performs a comparative analysis of estimation as well as of out-of-sample forecasting results of more than 20 estimators common in the panel data literature using the data on migration to Germany from 18 source countries in the period 1967–2001. Our results suggest that the choice of an estimation procedure has a substantial impact on the parameter estimates of the migration function. Out-of-sample forecasting results indicate the following: (1) the standard fixed effects estimators clearly outperforms the pooled OLS estimator, (2) both the fixed effects estimators and the hierarchical Bayes estimator exhibit the superior forecast performance, (3) the fixed effects estimators outperform GMM and other instrumental variables estimators, (4) forecasting performance of heterogenous estimators is mediocre in our data set.     

Dualism and cross-country growth regressions

This paper develops empirical growth models suitable for dual economies, and studies the relationship between structural change and economic growth. Changes in the structure of employment will raise aggregate productivity when the marginal product of labor varies across sectors. The models in the paper incorporate this effect in a more flexible way than previous work. Estimates of the models imply sizeable marginal product differentials, and indicate that the reallocation of labor makes a significant contribution to the international variation in productivity growth.     

The composition of wage differentials between migrants and natives

We consider the role of unobservables, such as differences in search frictions, reservation wages, and productivities for the explanation of wage differentials between migrants and natives. We disentangle these by estimating an empirical general equilibrium search model with on-the-job search due to Bontemps et al. (1999) on segments of the labour market defined by occupation, age, and nationality using a large scale German administrative dataset.The native-migrant wage differential is then decomposed into several parts, and we focus especially on the component that we label “migrant effect”, being the difference in wage offers between natives and migrants in the same occupation-age segment in firms of the same productivity. Counterfactual decompositions of wage differentials allow us to identify and quantify their drivers, thus explaining within a common framework what is often labelled the unexplained wage gap.     

Transformation of international migrants in head wind: Evidence from Tajikistan in the 2010s

Tajikistan has relied on remittances by international migrants that have exceeded a quarter of annual GDP to date, despite a series of exogenous adverse events in the mid-2010s. We use a nationally representative panel dataset collected in 2013 and 2018 to explore the socio-economic characteristics of households with international migrants and migrants themselves. We provide several new findings. First, the prevalence of households with international migrants is 40%, with a substantial transition in migrant status during the research period. Second, households with international migrants are not poor, have Russian-speaking members, and are supported by an intense migration network. Third, younger, single, and more educated males comprise most of Tajikistan's international migrants. Fourth, households without Russian-speaking members or migration networks in 2013 had begun to send international migrants by 2018, while households in the richest group had exited from migration, suggesting s transition of the socio-economic composition of migrant-sending households during the mid-2010s.     

Revisiting the role of migrant social networks as determinants of international migration flows

This note revisits the role of migrant social networks (MSNs) as determinants of bilateral migration flows. We do so using two alternative databases, covering about 190 world countries for the period 1960–2000. In line with previous estimates, we consistently find a significant, positive, impact of MSNs at destination. We also find that such an impact decreases very slowly as the year when MSNs are observed is farther back in the past. We also find that geographical distance is becoming less and less important over time but significantly explains the absence of a migration corridor only when MSNs at destination have very small sizes.     

缩小河南省城乡居民收入差距对策研究

过大的城乡居民收入差距严重阻碍了河南经济社会的协调发展,因此,必须着力增加农民收入,缩小河南省城乡居民收入差距.河南省应该在打破城乡二元结构的基础上,加快城镇化进程,建立统一的公共财政体系,实施农村税费等改革,为增强农民增收能力提供条件和环境.     

中国行业收入不平等问题的解析

进入新世纪以来,中国行业收入不平等有持续扩大的趋势。基于回归方程的Shap-ley分解结果表明,人力资本、所有制、资本投资、技术等因素对行业收入差距有显著影响,其中人力资本对行业收入差距的贡献约为45%,所有制的贡献在20%以上。因此在治理措施上,实施教育均等化,提高教育回报率,开放垄断行业的劳动力市场,推行劳资谈判制度可以有效缓解行业收入差距持续扩大的问题。     

Temporary and permanent migrant selection: Theory and evidence of ability‐search cost dynamics

We integrate two workhorses of the labor literature, the Roy and search models, to illustrate the implications of migration duration—specifically, whether it is temporary or permanent—for patterns of selection. Consistent with our stylized model, we show that temporary migrants are intermediately selected on education, with weaker selection on cognitive ability. In contrast, permanent migration is associated with strong positive selection on both education and ability, as it involves finer employee–employer matching and offers greater returns to experience. Networks are also more valuable for permanent migration, where search costs are higher. Labor market frictions explain observed network–skill interactions.     

Model selection when estimating and predicting consumer demands using international,cross section data

This paper assesses the ability of five structural demand systems to predict demands when estimated with cross sectional data spanning countries with widely varying per capita expenditure levels. Results indicate demand systems with less restrictive income responses are superior to demand systems with more restrictive income effects. Among the least restrictive demand systems considered, An Implicitly, Directly Additive Demand System (AIDADS) and Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS) seem roughly tied for best, while the Quadratic Expenditure System (QES) is a close second. Given differences in the characteristics of AIDADS and QUAIDS, it is concluded the former is better suited to instances where income exhibits wide variation and the latter to cases when prices exhibit considerable variation. First Version Received: November 2000/Final Version Received: February 2002 RID="*" ID="*"  The authors acknowledge the insightful comments of two journal referees and Baldev Raj. Bettina Aten kindly provided the data used in this study. Any errors or omissions remain the responsibility of the authors. Partial financial support of the United States Department of Agriculture – National Research Initiative Grant #97-35400-4752 and the Purdue Research Foundation is gratefully acknowledged. An expanded version of this paper is available from the authors upon request. RID="**" ID="**"  Contact author     

全球产业链、区域工资差异与产业升级——对长三角和珠三角产业发展模式的一个比较研究

本文从全球产业链视角,对珠三角和长三角目前发展的差异做了理论分析。研究发现,后发国家或地区在产业链中的位置决定了其相应的工资水平。在工资内生决定的情况下,任何干预工资的外部行为并不能促使其产业升级。研究还发现,后发国家或地区的产业升级具有"囚徒困境"的性质,跨国公司的进入一方面有可能促使其摆脱困境进而升级,另一方面也有可能使其陷入低水平发展陷阱中不能自拔。当后者发生的时候,政府对于企业技术创新或新技术引进的鼓励和补贴有助于本土企业摆脱低水平发展的情形。以上分析同时也指出了珠三角产业升级的重点。     

Investment and interruption: effects of the US experience on the earnings of return migrants in Mexico

Migration is widely viewed as an investment in human capital. However, due to the imperfect transferability of skills and knowledge across countries, migration trips are also career interruptions, especially for return migrants who may meanwhile experience depreciation of home country-specific skills. This article demonstrates that migration experience increases return migrants’ earnings in the home country on the condition that the migration stay is sufficiently long and mostly uninterrupted. Employing the revised human capital earnings function, the empirical study shows that only a barely interrupted US experience longer than five years, regardless of the legal status of the migration trips, predicts higher earnings of male return migrants in Mexico than comparable non-migrants. Robust findings emerge controlling for unobserved individual ]acteristics or using instrumental variables to deal with the self-selection and endogeneity. Short migration stays in the US and frequent traveling provide return migrants no wage premium in Mexico.     

外商直接投资、国际贸易与工资溢出——基于微观企业层面的实证分析

本文基于12180家企业面板数据估计了内资非出口企业与内资出口企业、外资出口企业、外资非出口企业之间的工资差距。研究结果表明,内资非出口企业与内资出口企业、外资非出口企业、外资出口企业之间存在显著的平均工资差距。进一步的分析发现,邻省外商直接投资对本省内资企业工资具有显著负效应;由于交易费用的存在,非相邻省份的外商直接投资对省内内资企业工资有显著正效应。同时,省内国际贸易对内资企业工资影响显著为正;由于区域间产业趋同现象的存在,相邻省份的贸易对省内内资企业的工资影响显著为负。因此,为缩小收入差距,要求我国消除区域壁垒,建立统一市场。     

Gender wage differentials and discrimination in Korea: comparison by knowledge intensity of industries

This study estimates the relative size of the non-productivity-related gender wage gap across industries with differing knowledge intensities. More specifically, a gender wage premium was estimated from a modified Mincerian earnings equation, and an Oaxaca's discrimination coefficient was computed. Empirical evidence indicates that gender wage differentials tend to be less subject to potential discrimination in knowledge-based industries than in other industries with lower knowledge intensity. The estimated discrimination effect is least noticeable in top hierarchical occupations such as professionals and technicians, while it is most sizeable in production workers and sales/service workers, regardless of industrial affiliation.     

Country size and the voluntary provision of international public goods

Standard studies on voluntary contributions to an international public good treat national economies as if they were single agents. This masks the fact that nations are comprised of populations of citizens, whose collective benefits a national government takes account of when deciding on the amount of the contributions. This paper constructs a model which explicitly allows for the effect of population differences and explores their consequences. We can then present the so-called exploitation of the great by the small by Olson and Zeckhauser [Olson, M., Zeckhauser, R., 1966. An economic theory of alliances. Review of Economics and Statistics 48 (1966) 266–279] and explore how residents of larger countries fare relative to those in smaller countries. We also elaborate on the effects of changing populations and show that growing into a large country is not necessarily beneficial for the country's residents.     

An international comparison of the determinants of retail gross margins

In this paper we compare the results of applying a new economic framework for the analysis of retail gross margins to 1982 interindustry retail data for France, Germany, and the U.S. Use of the same theoretical framework and econometric methodology separately for each of the three bodies of data yields robust empirical regularities with respect to functional form and the role of distribution services in explaining retail gross margins. An interesting feature of these results is that they arise despite substantial differences in classification and in the retail environment of the three countries.We thank E. Hoffnar and P. MacNeill for excellent research assistance. We acknowledge the financial support of INSEAD's R&D department for project R2135. We also thank the CSC at Maryland for support. Earlier versions of this paper were presented at the MIT Northeast Marketing Colloquium, the Simon Graduate School of Management at the University of Rochester, the Graduate School of Business at the University of Chicago, the Yale School of Organization and Management, the School of Business Administration at the University of Washington, and the Bureau of Economics of the Federal Trade Commission. We thank the participants in these seminars for their constructive criticisms. We are especially indebted to Peter Rossi of the University of Chicago, who provided us with helpful written comments, and to Herr Krockow of the Statistisches Bundesamt Wiesbaden, who provided us with unpublished data.     

Migration,self‐selection and income distributions

Self‐selection in rural–urban migration is examined using three datasets from rural and urban China in 2002. We construct a migrant sample including both migrants who converted their hukou status from rural to urban (permanent migrants) and those who did not (temporary migrants). We find a strong positive selection for permanent migrants, but the selection for temporary migrants is ambiguous. We reach these conclusions by comparing migrants' counterfactual wage densities, assuming they are paid as rural local workers, to actual wage densities of rural local workers. Our results imply that permanent migration has negative effects on rural human capital accumulation and income levels.     

Government ideology and international migration*

We provide the first empirical evidence that government ideology affects the choice of migration destinations. As ruling political parties differ in their discourse, policies, and positions on migration, the ideology differential between the host and home country governments can shape the relative generosity of the welfare system, the degree of tolerance towards out-groups, and the restrictiveness of migration policies, all acting as important drivers of international migration. Using data on bilateral migration and government ideology for OECD countries between 1990 and 2016, we show that migration flows increase when the government at the destination becomes more left-wing relative to the government at the origin, particularly when both countries are members of the European Economic Area.     

Disentangling the migration-trade nexus: the pro-trade effects of immigrants and emigrants in the presence of vertical and horizontal product differentiation

This paper presents an exploration of the migration-trade nexus taking the case of Italy by crossing the two dimensions of migration (immigration and emigration) and the two dimensions of intra-industry trade (vertical and horizontal). This empirical strategy proves useful in refining interpretation of econometric results. In general, we find that both immigration and emigration are positively and significantly related to intra-industry trade. However, the magnitude and the statistical significance of the impact of migration on trade vary, depending on the type of trade flows considered (vertical or horizontal), the direction of migration (immigration or emigration) and the partner countries considered (OECD or non-OECD). In particular, we find that immigrants from non-OECD countries have a positive and significant impact on both ‘variety trade’ and ‘quality trade’, while immigrants from OECD countries significantly affect ‘variety trade’ only. Emigrants to non-OECD countries have positive effect only on ‘variety trade’. These findings are largely consistent with predictions deriving from theoretical models of intra-industry trade and from the literature on migration-trade nexus.