The selection of migrants and returnees in Romania

This paper uses census and survey data to identify the wage earning ability and the selection of recent Romanian migrants and returnees on observable characteristics. We construct measures of selection across skill groups and estimate the average and the skill‐specific premium for migration and return for three typical destinations of Romanian migrants after 1990. Once we account for migration costs, we find evidence that the selection and sorting of migrants are driven by different returns to skills in countries of destination. Our identification strategy for the effects of work experience abroad permits a cautious causal interpretation of the premium to return migration. This premium increases with migrants' skills and drives the positive selection of returnees relative to non‐migrants. Based on the compatibility of the results with rationality in the migration decisions, we simulate a rational‐agent model of education, migration and return. Our results suggest that for a source country like Romania relatively high rates of temporary migration might have positive long‐run effects on average skills and wages.     

International migration,transfer of norms and home country fertility

This paper examines the relationship between international migration and source country fertility. The impact of international migration on source country fertility may have a number of causes, including a transfer of destination countries' fertility norms. We provide a rigorous test of the diffusion of fertility norms using highly detailed original data on migration. Our results provide evidence of a significant transfer of destination countries' fertility norms from migrants to their country of origin: a 1% decrease (increase) in the fertility norm to which migrants are exposed reduces (raises) home country fertility by about 0.3%. JEL classification: J13, J61, O11     

The economics of the "to and fro" migrant: some welfare-theoretical considerations

The effects of international "to and fro" migration on the economic welfare of the migrants and the nonmigrants in the host and home countries are examined. A "to and fro" migrant is defined as a worker who changes residence from origin to destination without any systematic tendency to remain in any of the two permanently. The study is based on the theoretical framework developed by Krauss. The results indicate that "(to and fro) emigration from a source country to a recipient country increases the economic welfare of the migrants and the nonmigrants residing in the host country, but it tends to decrease the welfare of the nonmigrants residing in the source country. In general, the migration also tends to be pareto optimal from a world point of view."     

Work Effort, Moderation in Expulsion, and Illegal Migration

Illegal migrants supply a valuable productive input: effort. But their status as illegals means that these migrants face a strictly positive probability of expulsion. A return to their country of origin entails reduced earnings when the wage at origin is lower than the wage at destination. This prospect induces illegal migrants to exert more work effort than comparable workers who face no such prospect. The lower the probable, alternative earnings, the harsher the penalty that illegal migrants will be subjected to upon their return, for a given probability of expulsion, and the higher the level of effort they will exert at destination. While the home‐country wage that awaits the illegal migrants upon their return is exogenous to the host country, the probability of their return is not. Given the home‐country wage, a higher probability of expulsion will induce illegal migrants to supply more effort. Hence, different combinations of probabilities of expulsion and home‐country wages yield the same level of effort. Thus, variation in the extent to which receiving countries undertake measures aimed at apprehending and expelling illegal migrants can be attributed not to characteristics of the illegal migrants themselves but to a feature that pertains to the illegal migrants’ country of origin.     

The tale of two international phenomena: Migration and global imbalances

Following the dynamics of globalization, international migration has increased dramatically since the 1990s. Since migration patterns affect a country’s demographic structure—which is known to have an impact on the current account—migration is likely to explain a significant part of world imbalances. This paper tackles this issue by investigating the role played by international migration in the dynamics of global imbalances. To this end, we rely on an overlapping generations model to derive the theoretical link between international migration and the current account position. Through a series of robust estimates, we empirically investigate this relationship by relying on a large panel of developed and developing countries. Our results point to substantial effects of international migration. Specifically, we show that an increase in migration augments national savings and tends to restore the current account balance in the destination country, while it has opposite impacts in the origin country. These effects are particularly pronounced in developing economies and are attenuated by migrants’ remittances.     

Why do immigrant workers in Australia perform better than those in Canada? Is it the immigrants or their labour markets?

Research comparing the labour market performance of recent cohorts of immigrants to Australia and Canada points to superior employment and earnings outcomes in Australia. Examining Australian and Canadian Census data between 1986 and 2006, we find that this performance advantage is not driven by differences in broader labour market conditions affecting all new labour market entrants. Rather, the results from comparing immigrants from a common source country – either the U.K., India, or China – suggest that Australian immigrants perform better, particularly in average earnings, primarily because of a different source country distribution. Moreover, the recent tightening of Australian selection policy, most notably its use of mandatory pre‐migration English‐language testing, appears to be having an effect, primarily by further shifting the source country distribution of immigrants away from non‐English‐speaking source countries, rather than in identifying higher‐quality migrants within source countries.     

Transit migration

Unauthorized international migration to the advanced countries has become increasingly more costly and indirect. The hazardous land and sea routes that pass through one or more transit countries offer liquidity‐constrained individuals an opportunity to economize on the pecuniary cost of migration as well as to work along the way to pay for the next leg of the journey. This paper analyzes the optimal behavior of transit migrants and examines its implications for the effectiveness of immigration control measures of the transit and final‐destination countries in deterring unauthorized migration. Strengthening of border controls at the final destination is shown to increase the relative effectiveness of internal enforcement measures of the transit countries, while tougher internal enforcement in the transit countries increases the relative effectiveness of border controls at the final destination.     

Bilateral real exchange rates and migration

Migrants who move across borders are, to a large extent, motivated by the prospect of earning higher incomes at destination, which can be partly transferred back to their countries of origin via remittances. This suggests that the real exchange rate can influence the incentives to migrate, as it determines the purchasing power of expected income in terms of the currency of the origin country. This article investigates empirically how bilateral real exchange rate fluctuations influence international migration flows. To do so, we build a dataset of 30 OECD destination countries and 165 origin countries over the period 1980–2011 and estimate an equation derived from a micro-founded random utility maximization model that allows for unobserved heterogeneity between migrants and non-migrants. Our results show that migration flows are highly responsive to bilateral real exchange rates: A 10% real appreciation of the currency of the destination country is associated with an 18.2–19.4% increase in migration flows.     

Do potential migrants internalize migrant rights in OECD host societies?

This paper analyzes how countries’ provision of migrant rights affects potential migrants’ destination choice. Combining data on bilateral migration desires from over 140 origin countries and data on migrant rights in 38 mainly OECD destination countries over the period 2007–2014, we find that potential migrants tend to favour destinations that are more open to the inclusion of immigrants into their society. In particular, better access to and conditions on the labour market as well as access to nationality and to permanent residency significantly increase the perceived attractiveness of a destination country. These results are robust across different specifications and hold for subsamples of origin countries as well as of destinations. Moreover, some results vary across types of respondents. Educational opportunities for migrants, for instance, affect the migration desires of individuals aged 15 to 24, but less so of individuals in other age groups.     

Where do the highly educated migrate? Micro-level evidence from finland

This paper analyses the role which migration of highly educated labour plays in human capital reallocation. The study focuses on actual migrants, examining the direct effect of educational attainment on destination choices. The paper uses the ordered probability model and a micro-level data set in econometric analyses. Individual level investigations of migrants show that highly educated migrants are likely to move to urban regions. As a result, the reallocation of highly educated labour, and thereby also the redistribution of human capital, seems to be taking place in Finland.     

Efficient Migration and Income Tax Competition

This paper examines the consequence of the brain drain for the income tax systems of the source and destination countries for the migration, if the two countries' policies are set noncooperatively by self–interested voters. It is assumed that the brain drain does increase the value of world output: workers with the highest income–earning ability are assumed to be more productive in one country than in another. There are costs to migration of these high–ability workers, costs that are less than the gain in the value of their production. However, for lower–ability workers, the gains in production in moving from the low–productivity country to the high–productivity country are assumed to be less than the migration costs. Voters in the high–productivity country want to capture rents from migrants. These voters are aware of the influence their tax policy has on people's migration decisions. Voters in the low–productivity country also behave strategically. I solve for the Nash equilibrium income tax rates. Increased mobility of highly skilled workers cannot decrease, and may increase, progressivity in the income tax system of the destination country, if migration actually occurs. Finally, the effects of transfers between countries on their income tax systems are examined. Redistribution between countries tends to lead to less redistribution within countries. If transfers between countries are set by a vote of all residents of both countries, then the transfer chosen will be the one that leads to the least progressive tax possible being chosen in each country.     

Migration,trade and spillover effects

This paper identifies a new channel through which migrants can affect the import demand of goods in the host country. In migrating from origin to destination country, migrants observe a change in the price of the bundle of consumable goods. In particular, the migration decision can imply a reduction in the price of imported goods for the consumption bundle of migrants: emigration towards less (tariff) protected countries allows the consumption of products that were prohibitively protected in the origin countries of migrants. To test this channel we estimate the import demand effect of migrant groups coming from third high (tariff) protected countries. Our empirical results strongly confirm this channel and suggest a new perspective about how migration can affect welfare and trade in destination countries.     

Investment and interruption: effects of the US experience on the earnings of return migrants in Mexico

Migration is widely viewed as an investment in human capital. However, due to the imperfect transferability of skills and knowledge across countries, migration trips are also career interruptions, especially for return migrants who may meanwhile experience depreciation of home country-specific skills. This article demonstrates that migration experience increases return migrants’ earnings in the home country on the condition that the migration stay is sufficiently long and mostly uninterrupted. Employing the revised human capital earnings function, the empirical study shows that only a barely interrupted US experience longer than five years, regardless of the legal status of the migration trips, predicts higher earnings of male return migrants in Mexico than comparable non-migrants. Robust findings emerge controlling for unobserved individual \]acteristics or using instrumental variables to deal with the self-selection and endogeneity. Short migration stays in the US and frequent traveling provide return migrants no wage premium in Mexico.     

Brain waste? Educated immigrants in the US labor market

This paper investigates the occupational placement of immigrants in the US labor market using census data. We find striking differences among highly educated immigrants from different countries, even after we control for individuals' age, experience and level of education. With some exceptions, educated immigrants from Latin American and Eastern European countries are more likely to end up in unskilled jobs than immigrants from Asia and industrial countries. A large part of the variation can be explained by attributes of the country of origin that influence the quality of human capital, such as expenditure on tertiary education and the use of English as a medium of instruction. These findings suggest that “underplaced” migrants suffer primarily from low (or poorly transferable) skills rather than skill underutilization. The selection effects of US immigration policy also play an important role in explaining cross-country variation. The observed under-placement of educated migrants might be alleviated if home and host countries cooperate by sharing information on labor market conditions and work toward the recognition of qualifications.     

Government ideology and international migration*

We provide the first empirical evidence that government ideology affects the choice of migration destinations. As ruling political parties differ in their discourse, policies, and positions on migration, the ideology differential between the host and home country governments can shape the relative generosity of the welfare system, the degree of tolerance towards out-groups, and the restrictiveness of migration policies, all acting as important drivers of international migration. Using data on bilateral migration and government ideology for OECD countries between 1990 and 2016, we show that migration flows increase when the government at the destination becomes more left-wing relative to the government at the origin, particularly when both countries are members of the European Economic Area.     

Brain waste? Educated immigrants in the US labor market

This paper investigates the occupational placement of immigrants in the US labor market using census data. We find striking differences among highly educated immigrants from different countries, even after we control for individuals' age, experience and level of education. With some exceptions, educated immigrants from Latin American and Eastern European countries are more likely to end up in unskilled jobs than immigrants from Asia and industrial countries. A large part of the variation can be explained by attributes of the country of origin that influence the quality of human capital, such as expenditure on tertiary education and the use of English as a medium of instruction. These findings suggest that “underplaced” migrants suffer primarily from low (or poorly transferable) skills rather than skill underutilization. The selection effects of US immigration policy also play an important role in explaining cross-country variation. The observed under-placement of educated migrants might be alleviated if home and host countries cooperate by sharing information on labor market conditions and work toward the recognition of qualifications.     

Heaven's Swing Door: Endogenous Skills,Migration Networks,and the Effectiveness of Quality‐Selective Immigration Policies

A growing number of OECD countries are leaning toward the adoption of selective immigration policies, which are expected to raise the quality (or education level) of migrants. This view neglects two important dynamic effects: the role of migration networks, which could reduce the quality of migrants, and the responsiveness of education decisions to the prospect of migration. We propose a model of self‐selection into migration with endogenous education choices, which predicts that migration networks and the quality of migrants can be positively associated when destination countries adopt sufficiently selective immigration policies. Empirical evidence, presented as background motivation, suggests that this is indeed the case.     

Gender Empowerment and Educational Attainment of US Immigrants and Their Home-Country Counterparts

This paper examines the educational self-selection of immigrants to the United States across forty-two countries of origin and analyzes determinants of selectivity, including home-country gender status (as measured by the United Nations’ Gender Empowerment Measure [GEM]). Measuring educational self-selection, the study uses data from the 2006 American Community Survey and the 2000 and 2014 Barro–Lee Educational Attainment Measure to construct the Net Difference Index between immigrants and nonmigrants. It compares the educational attainment difference between immigrants and nonmigrants who remain in the home country and demonstrates that immigrants to the US are more educated than their home-country counterparts across all immigrant groups (positive selection). Regression results further indicate that higher gender inequality in the home country influences more highly educated women to migrate. The paper also confirms that higher migration costs and lower income inequality in the home country influence more highly educated individuals to migrate.     

Pane e Cioccolata: The Impact of Native Attitudes on Return Migration

This paper addresses the link between native attitudes and return migration. We exploit the variation in xenophobia using information on media consumption by migrants in Italy. A widely documented crime provides a quasi‐experimental setting to identify the impact of Italian attitudes on migrants’ settlement intentions. Our results suggest a significant effect of anti‐immigrant attitudes on the intended duration of stay in the host country. The impact is more pronounced for low‐skilled migrants, which has consequences for how migration affects the long‐run convergence between sending and destination countries.     

International student migration to Germany

The past decades have witnessed an impressive growth of international student mobility. This article presents first empirical evidence on international student migration to Germany, one of the most important destination countries for international students worldwide. While previous research in the field has mainly used data on international trade in educational services, I use a novel approach that analyzes student mobility as a form of migration, using data on international student migrants. An augmented gravity equation is the basis for the theoretical and empirical framework. I also provide extensive sensitivity checks of the empirical results and estimates using both the usual log-linearized and a multiplicative specification of the gravity equation, following recent work by Santos Silva and Tenreyro (Rev Econ Stat 88(4): 641–658, 2006). The results provide evidence for the importance of distance—a familiar result from the empirical migration literature. Unlike for international migration on the whole, the importance of disposable income in the home country does not seem to be too big for students, and student migrant flows from politically unfree countries are significantly lower.