The precautionary principle and EMF: implementation and evaluation

The precautionary principle, a recommendation to consider action to avoid a possible harm even if it is not certain to occur, is variously defined and interpreted. We present a range of definitions with an emphasis on their requirements for strength of evidence of harm and for actions to be taken. We describe the variety of approaches that have been adopted in developing policy to address the issue of possible health effects of electric and magnetic fields (EMF) in the face of scientific uncertainty. Further, we discuss specific aspects of scientific uncertainty regarding EMF health risks particularly relevant to the development of precautionary principle policy. We define and discuss prudent avoidance and other unique features of applications of the precautionary principle to EMF. We conclude with examples from EMF policy decisions of risk tradeoffs that need to be considered in developing any precautionary principle policy, and provide recommendations for better ways to define and implement the precautionary principle.     

Implications of bank ownership for the credit channel of monetary policy transmission: Evidence from India

Using bank-level data from India, we examine the impact of ownership on the reaction of banks to monetary policy, and also test whether the reaction of different types of banks to monetary policy changes is different in easy and tight policy regimes. Our results suggest that there are considerable differences in the reactions of different types of banks to monetary policy initiatives of the central bank, and that the bank lending channel of monetary policy is likely to be much more effective in a tight money period than in an easy money period. We also find differences in impact of monetary policy changes on less risky short-term and more risky medium-term lending. We discuss the policy implications of the findings.     

Effects of Family Policy Reforms in Norway: Results from a Joint Labour Supply and Childcare Choice Microsimulation Analysis*

Mothers of pre‐school children represent one part of the population that might be able to increase its labour supply. We discuss the effects of family policy changes that encourage the labour supply of these mothers, such as childcare fee reductions and increased availability of centre‐based care. The effects of policy changes are described by using a joint labour supply and childcare choice decision model. Detailed empirical results are provided with respect to mothers' labour supply, families' childcare choices, public expenditures, and distributions of income and money metric utility.     

Deconstructing credibility: The breaking of monetary policy rules in Brazil

Can political interference deconstruct credibility that was hardly-earned through successful stabilization policy? We analyze the recent switch in the conduct of monetary policy by the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB). Brazil is the largest Emerging Market Economy to formally target inflation, having adopted the Inflation Targeting (IT) regime in 1999. In the early years of IT, the BCB engaged in constructing credibility with price setting agents and succeeded to anchor inflation expectations to its target even under adverse conditions such as exchange rate crises. We argue that this effort to maintain IT rules-based policy ended in 2011, as a new country president and BCB board came to power. We then discuss the consequences of this credibility loss. Our main results can be summarized as follows: (i) we provide strong empirical evidence of the BCB’s shift toward looser, discretionary policy after 2011; (ii) preliminary evidence suggests that this shift has affected agents’ inflation expectations generating social and economic costs.     

Developing time-driven activity-based costing at the national level to support policy recommendations for radiation oncology in Belgium

We use time-driven activity-based costing (TDABC) to estimate the cost of radiation treatments at the national level. Although TDABC has mostly been applied at the hospital level, we demonstrate its potential to estimate costs at the national level, which can provide health policy recommendations. Contrary to work on reimbursement or charges representing the health care system perspective, we focus on resource costs from the perspective of health care service providers. Using the example of Belgian inputs and results, we discuss development of a TDABC model. We also present insights into the challenges that arose during model design and implementation. Finally, we discuss recent examples of policy implications in Belgium as well as some caveats that should be considered when developing resource allocation models at the national level.     

Consolidation in banking and the lending channel of monetary transmission: Evidence from Asia and Latin America

This paper examines the relationship between increased consolidation in banking and monetary policy transmission in eighteen Asian and Latin American economies, using bank-level data from 1996 to 2006. Our results provide consistent evidence that as concentration in banking increases, the bank lending channel is weakened, leading the monetary policy transmission mechanism to be less effective. We also investigate how this relationship between concentration and the strength of the lending channel depends on bank-specific characteristics. Using bank-level balance sheet and income statement data allows us, first, to better identify the effects of banking consolidation on the supply-side bank lending channel from those of the demand-side interest rate channel, and second, to test for any systematic differences in the impact of consolidation on monetary policy transmission across banks of different size and financial strength. We also discuss potential explanations for and policy implications of the main findings of this paper.     

Optimal Monetary Policy in an Operational Medium‐Sized DSGE Model

We show how to construct optimal policy projections in Ramses, the Riksbank’s open‐economy medium‐sized dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for forecasting and policy analysis. Bayesian estimation of the parameters of the model indicates that they are relatively invariant to alternative policy assumptions and supports our view that the model parameters may be regarded as unaffected by the monetary policy specification. We discuss how monetary policy, and in particular the choice of output gap measure, affects the transmission of shocks. Finally, we use the model to assess the recent Great Recession in the world economy and how its impact on the economic development in Sweden depends on the conduct of monetary policy. This provides an illustration on how Rames incoporates large international spillover effects.     

The Economics of Lockdown

In this paper, we suggest an approach to analysing policies relating to the COVID-19 pandemic. We discuss the formulation of policy and sketch how the approach can be applied to different specific challenges as policymakers try to make difficult choices for managing the pandemic and protecting the economy and society.     

Life insurance in a contingent claim framework: Pricing and regulatory implications

In this paper we develop a contingent claim model to evaluate the equity and liabilities of a life insurance company. The limited liability of shareholders is explicitly modelled. We focus on a specific type of life insurance policy—namely, the profit-sharing policy. In this policy, the policyholder is entitled to a guaranteed interest rate and a percentage of the company's yearly financial revenues. The implicit equilibrium interest rate and profit-sharing ratio are derived and analyzed. We finally discuss regulatory measures frequently encountered in the life insurance business such as rate ceilings, capital ratios, and asset restrictions.     

Cost Uncertainty and Taxpayer Compliance

The existence of a private cost borne by audited taxpayers affects the tax enforcement policy. This is so because tax auditors will face now two sources of uncertainty, namely, the typical one associated with taxpayers’ income and that associated with the taxpayers’ idiosyncratic attitude towards tax compliance. Moreover, the inspection policy can be exposed to some randomness from the taxpayers’ viewpoint due to the uncertainty about the audit cost borne by the tax authority. In this paper we provide an unified framework to analyze the effects of all these sources of uncertainty in a model of tax compliance with strategic interaction between auditors and taxpayers. We show that more variance in the distribution of the taxpayers’ private cost of evading raises both tax compliance and the ex-ante welfare of taxpayers. The effects of the uncertainty about the audit cost faced by the tax authority are generally ambiguous. We also discuss the implications of our model for the regressive (or progressive) bias of the effective tax system.     

Why pay? An introduction to payments economics

This paper surveys the growing literature on payments. We begin by presenting a simple model that illustrates the essential function of payments and how this may be implemented through various arrangements. We show how the basic models of payments have been used to address a variety of microeconomic and macroeconomic policy issues. We then discuss the links between payments economics and other fields, including monetary theory, corporate finance, and industrial organization. We conclude with an overview of the empirical literature and directions for future research.     

China's nonlife insurance market: New insights from the China Insurance Yearbook

China's nonlife insurance market is among the largest in the world and is ripe for policy‐relevant research. The China Insurance Yearbook is well‐positioned to support this study. The current essay provides an overview of the China Insurance Yearbook and includes graphical summaries of yearbook data. We discuss implications for the study of nonlife insurance in China and highlight new insights that might be gained from an analysis of yearbook data.     

Obituary

The environmental risk associated with genetically modified organisms (GMO) implies that new approaches to risk assessment, risk management and risk communication are needed. In this paper we discuss the role of the precautionary principle in policy responses to GMO risk. We first discuss application of the criteria in the European Environment Agency report “Late lessons from early warnings: The precautionary principle 1896–2000” to environmental GMO risk, with focus on crop plants. Moreover, we discuss Bayesian analysis in the context of improving the informational basis for decision‐making under uncertainty. Finally, environmental uncertainties are intertwined with economic uncertainties. Providing incentives for improved risk assessment, risk management and risk communication is crucial for enhancing environmental and social responsibility and thereby facilitate implementation of precautionary approaches. We discuss environmental and social screening of companies as an example of how such incentives can be provided.     

Model Secrecy and Stress Tests

Should regulators reveal the models they use to stress-test banks? In our setting, revealing leads to gaming, but secrecy can induce banks to underinvest in socially desirable assets for fear of failing the test. We show that although the regulator can solve this underinvestment problem by making the test easier, some disclosure may still be optimal (e.g., if banks have high appetite for risk or if capital shortfalls are not very costly). Cutoff rules are optimal within monotone disclosure rules, but more generally optimal disclosure is single-peaked. We discuss policy implications and offer applications beyond stress tests.     

Robustly optimal monetary policy in a microfounded New Keynesian model

We consider optimal monetary stabilization policy in a New Keynesian model with explicit microfoundations, when the central bank recognizes that private-sector expectations need not be precisely model-consistent, and wishes to choose a policy that will be as good as possible in the case of any beliefs close enough to model-consistency. We show how to characterize robustly optimal policy without restricting consideration a priori to a particular parametric family of candidate policy rules. We show that robustly optimal policy can be implemented through commitment to a target criterion involving only the paths of inflation and a suitably defined output gap, but that a concern for robustness requires greater resistance to surprise increases in inflation than would be considered optimal if one could count on the private sector to have “rational expectations.”     

How successful are banking sector reforms in emerging market economies? Evidence from impact of monetary policy on levels and structures of firm debt in India

Many emerging markets have undertaken significant financial sector reforms, especially in their banking sectors, that are critical for both financial development and real economic activity. In this paper, we investigate the success of banking reforms in India where significant banking reforms were implemented during the 1990s. Using the argument that well-functioning credit markets would reflect a credit channel for monetary policy at work, we test whether a change in monetary policy has a predictable impact on borrowing behaviour of several types of firms, including business group affiliated, unaffiliated private firms, state-owned firms and foreign firms. The empirical results suggest that unaffiliated private firms have the most vulnerable to monetary policy stance during tight policy regimes. We also find that during tight monetary policy regimes, bank credit of smaller firms is more sensitive to changes in the interest rate than that of large firms. In an easy money regime, monetary policy and the associated change in interest rate does not affect change in bank credit, change in total debt and the proportion of bank credit in total debt for any of the firms. We discuss the policy implications of the findings.     

On the effectiveness of monetary policy under fixed rates of exchange

The IS-LM framework traditionally used to discuss the role of monetary policy under fixed rates of exchange has several weaknesses. The theoretical findings based on such a model cannot be accepted uncritically. The paper reassesses the role of monetary policy by appropriately modifying the IS-LM apparatus so that its resilts can be easier to compare with much of the existing literature. The meaning and effectiveness of monetary policy is analysed in short-run equilibrium, stock-flow equilibrium and full long-run equilibrium. Dynamical equations linking the short to the long run are specified. The notable implication is that monetary policy is effective in the short run and need not be ineffective in the long run. Complete emasculation of monetary policy occurs when the central authorities relinquish control over the flow distribution of government debt between money and bonds in favour of an independent use of a set of fiscal instruments. Perfect capital mobility requires that the central authorities decide whether monetary or fiscal policy become totally dependent on external forces. Whether one or the other is chosen is more a matter of specific circumstances than theoretical necessity. Critical comments are directed at the literature on offsetting capital flows.     

The demand-boost theory of exclusive dealing

This article unifies various approaches to the analysis of exclusive dealing that so far have been regarded as distinct. The common element of these approaches is that firms depart from efficient pricing, raising marginal prices above marginal costs. We show that with distorted prices, exclusive dealing can be directly profitable and anticompetitive provided that the dominant firm enjoys a competitive advantage over rivals. The dominant firm gains directly, rather than in the future, or in adjacent markets, thanks to the boost in demand it enjoys when buyers sign exclusive contracts. We discuss the implication of the theory for antitrust policy.     

The Political Economy of Government-Issued Longevity Bonds

This article explores the trade‐offs associated with government issuance of longevity bonds as a way of stimulating private annuity supply in the presence of aggregate mortality risk. We provide new calculations suggesting a 5 percent chance that aggregate mortality risk could ex post raise annuity costs for private insurers by as much as 5–10 percentage points, with the most likely effect based on historical patterns toward the lower end of that range. While we suspect that aggregate mortality risk does exert some upward pressure on annuity prices, evidence from private market pricing suggests that, to the extent that private insurers are accurately pricing this risk, the effect is less than 5 percentage points. We discuss ways that the private market can spread this risk, while emphasizing that the government has the unique ability to spread aggregate risk across generations. We note factors that might hamper such an efficient allocation of risk, including potential political incentives for the government to shift more than the optimal amount of risk onto future generations, and the possibility that government fiscal policy might allocate risk less efficiently within each generation than would private markets. We also discuss how large‐scale longevity bond issuance might affect government borrowing costs, as well as political economy aspects of how the proceeds from such a bond issuance might be used.     

Loss Sharing Rules for Bank Holding Companies: An Assessment of the Federal Reserve's Source‐of‐Strength Policy and the FDIC's Cross Guarantee Authority

In this article, we critically examine two policies designed to protect the deposit insurance funds—the Federal Reserve Board's source‐of‐strength policy and the FDIC's cross‐guarantee authority. We discuss why each of the policies was adopted and how effective each has been in practice since its implementation. We then evaluate the future application and usefulness of the two policies in light of the structural changes that have resulted from industry consolidation and the financial modernization of the 1990s.