Export variety and export performance: Empirical evidence for the OECD countries

Export Variety and Export Performance: Empirical Evidence for the OECD Countries. — Does product variety matter for export performance? This has been suggested by the new trade theory. In the present paper, we investigate empirically whether increasing export variety has contributed to the export growth of the OECD countries. We calculate direct measures of export variety and estimate pooled export demand equations for 15 OECD countries. The econometric results suggest that producing highly differentiated export goods gives a competitive advantage which allows to sell more products.     

Country size and comparative advantage: An empirical study

Country Size and Comparative Advantage: An Empirical Study.—The author formulates a simple model that captures two hypotheses: (i) that countries absolutely abundant in skilled labor will be net exporters in R&;D-intensive industries and (ii) that countries with a large domestic market will be net exporters in scale-intensive industries. The hypotheses are empirically examined by pooling the data into one regression of industry-specific net export shares on country and industry characteristics. The results offer relatively strong support for hypothesis (i) and some support for hypothesis (ii). The conclusions are the same as when studying the trade of each OECD country individually. JEL no. F12, F14     

Endogenous timing in trade policy games: Should governments use countervailing duties?

Endogenous Timing in Trade Policy Games: Should Governments Use Countervailing Duties? - Trade policy under oligopoly is analysed in two multistage games with endogenous timing of trade policy. At the beginning of the games, the domestic and foreign governments choose whether to set trade policy at stage one or two. It is shown that in the subgame perfect equilibrium of both games, the domestic government will set its tariff (and production subsidy) at stage one and the foreign government its export subsidy at stage two. The domestic country commits not to use a countervailing duty in both games, and both countries are better off than when they set trade policy simultaneously.     

Foreign direct investment, processing trade, and the sophistication of China's exports

China's export structure has shown a rapid shift towards more sophisticated industries. While some believe that this trend is a result of processing trade and foreign direct investment, the evidence is mixed. This paper examines variations in level of export sophistication across China's manufacturing industries. We find that an industry's level of export sophistication is positively related to the share of wholly foreign owned enterprises from OECD countries and the share of processing exports of foreign-invested enterprises, and negatively related to the share of processing exports of indigenous Chinese enterprises. Evidence from the relative export prices of Chinese goods, which measure within-product export sophistication, shows a similar pattern.     

Firm Heterogeneity and Export Pricing in India

We examine export pricing by Indian manufacturing firms in the early 2000s using a unique data set that matches firm characteristics with product and destination‐level trade data. We find that, in contrast to China and other countries, firm productivity is negatively associated with export prices, and export prices are negatively associated with distance while positively associated with remoteness. Our conjecture is that Indian innovation costs, which are higher than China's, drive down the scope for quality differentiation causing a negative association between productivity and prices. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first empirical evidence consistent with heterogenous goods and short quality ladders, a theoretical possibility noted in the study by Antoniades (2012), an outcome that arises here because of domestic Indian economic and regulatory features.     

Food crisis and export taxation: the cost of non-cooperative trade policies

This paper aims to assess the rationales for export taxes in the context of a food crisis. First, we summarize the effects of export taxes using both partial and general equilibrium theoretical models. When large countries aim to maintain constant domestic food prices, in the event of an increase in world agricultural prices, the optimal response is to decrease import tariffs in net food-importing countries and to increase export tariffs in net food-exporting countries. The latter decision improves national welfare, while the former reduces national welfare: this is the price that must be paid to keep domestic food prices constant. Small net food-importing countries are harmed by both decisions, while small net food-exporting countries gain from both. Second, we illustrate the costs of a lack of regulation and cooperation surrounding such policies in a time of crisis using a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, mimicking the mechanisms that appeared during the recent food price surge (2006–2008). This model illustrates the interdependence of trade policies, as well as how a process of retaliation and counter-retaliation (increased export taxes in large net food-exporting countries and reduced import tariffs in large net food-importing countries) can contribute to successive augmentations of world agricultural prices and harm small net food-importing countries. We conclude with a call for international regulation, in particular because small net food-importing countries may be substantially harmed by those policies that amplify the already negative impact of a food crisis.     

China's Foreign Trade: A “New Normal”

Since the global financial crisis of 2007/2008, China's foreign trade has continued to grow faster than international trade, but its drivers are now different from those prevailing before. The participation of the Chinese economy in the global production chains through processing activities is no longer the main driver of its trade performance. The new driving force of change is ordinary trade, based mainly on local inputs and domestic demand. China, which played a major role in the globalization process as an export base for multinational companies, is now shifting to having a “normal” foreign trade system, which is more closely integrated into the domestic economy.     

Determinants of Taiwan's Trade Liberalization: The Case of a Newly Industrialized Country

This paper attempts to account for the success of policy reform in Taiwan's trade liberalization through an investigation of the periods 1986–92, and 1992–95. The objective is to undertake an empirical examination of Haggard et al.'s (The political feasibility of adjustment in developing countries. Development Centre of the OECD, OECD, Paris, 1995) strategies for minimizing the political costs involved in implementing policy reforms. Empirical evidence supports the Haggard et al. arguments, that is, indirect compensation is used to facilitate the implementation of trade liberalization for downstream industries, while the speed of trade liberalization within certain specific industries is comparatively slow. Furthermore, in a democratic regime, the pressure brought to bear by well-organized domestic interest groups, along with the pressure from international interest groups, can strongly influence the pattern of trade liberalization policies.     

Reorganization of Intra‐ASEAN 5 Trade Flows: The ‘China Factor’*

There are claims that China's influence on ASEAN is direct in that she has encouraged more exports to flow into her huge markets and changed trade flows among member countries. Demand and supply are thus deemed to have become more China‐centered. This study therefore explores the plausibility of China as a ‘factor’ that influences bilateral intra‐ASEAN 5 trade flows through demand (exporting country) and supply (importing country). The results imply that China's integration in the region increases the size of the key ASEAN member economies export market. There is also no indication that import sourcing from China by ASEAN 5 countries reduces export expansion within the latter. The results accord with the fact that although China has become an important export destination and an import source for individual ASEAN 5 countries, this has not reduced intra‐ASEAN 5 trade.     

Export subsidies and minimum access guarantees in agricultural trade: a developing country perspective

The paper presents a framework for and results from a quantitative analysis of two proposals to GATT, made as part of an effort at containing or rolling back the spread of non-tariff barriers in agriculture. The first proposes export subsidies, which would be financed by the producers themselves, requiring no government outlay. The second calls for a minimum access for importers. This analysis examines the magnitude of the effects on trade flows, world prices, the impact on the production, consumption, and trade of the OECD countries and on foreign exchange earnings of less developed countries (LDCs), of minimum access as applied to sugar trade — one of the most protected products in OECD countries and one with great potential for LDC exporters. Results are then compared with an analysis of more comprehensive trade liberalization in the sugar market, i.e., complete removal of trade barriers in all OECD countries.     

Regional cooperation and the environment: Do “dirty” industries migrate?

Regional Cooperation and the Environment: Do “Dirty” Industries Migrate? — This article develops an alternative method to investigate trade in embodied environmental factor services (EEFS) and applies it to bilateral trade between APEC economies. The issue of regional cooperation and the environment is addressed by investigating trade in EEFS between APEC economies in the last three decades. We observe a ‘cascading’ pattern in net exports of EEFS between East Asian economies. However, we do not observe a similar pattern in the trade between North American economies. The results should be interpreted with caution since the application of US sectoral pollution intensity data to other countries may lead to biased estimation of trade in EEFS.     

Globalization and deindustrialization: Myth and reality in the OECD

Globalization and Deindustrialization: Myth and Reality in the OECD. — Has global integration adversely impacted workers in the US and Europe? The expansion of trade and other linkages with the South has been blamed for a multitude of ills in the North, including the contraction of manufacturing employment. Utilizing panel data for OECD countries, this paper examines the relationship between “deindustrialization” and differential productivity growth, Dutch disease, human capital accumulation and trade flows. Empirical results indicate there is a statistically and economically significant link between imports from the South and the manufacturing share of employment and real value added, even after controlling for other plausible causes of deindustrialization.     

Competitiveness and external trade performance of the French manufacturing industry

Competitiveness and External Trade Performance of the French Manufacturing Industry. - This paper evaluates the competitiveness and external trade performance of the French manufacturing industry during the 1980s and early 1990s. It reviews developments in a broad range of competitiveness indicators, showing that the manufacturing sector appears to have maintained its competitive position, discusses developments in export market shares, and estimates a vector error correction model relating the trade ratio to relative unit labor costs, domestic and foreign demand, and nonprice competitiveness. Variance decompositions suggest that fluctuations in price and nonprice competitiveness account for about two-fifths of fluctuations in manufacturing trade flows.     

对发展中国家的贸易与美国制造业的就业变动

本文利用1997～2006年美国制造业的面板数据,从静态和动态的角度实证检验了美国制造业与发展中国家的进、出口贸易对美国制造业就业总量的影响。估计结果表明,考虑进、出口贸易对技术创新的驱动作用以后,进、出口贸易对就业的影响与理论预期存在不一致性,进口贸易不仅没有通过替代国内生产而减少劳动密集制造部门对劳动力的需求,反而促进了该部门的就业增长;出口贸易也没有通过产出扩大效应而增加劳动密集制造部门对劳动力的需求,出口贸易对就业的促进效应仅仅体现在技术密集制造部门。由于美国劳动力市场中存在价格效应、规模效应和劳动力需求的趋势效应,与发展中国家的进、出口贸易对美国制造业就业的影响呈现明显的滞后性和动态调整特征。     

The trend behavior of real exchange rates: Evidence from OECD countries

The Trend Behavior of Real Exchange Rates: Evidence from OECD Countries. — This paper examines the validity of purchasing power parity (PPP) under the current float using real effective exchange rates of eleven OECD countries. The author employs a test which allows for a one-time change in the intercept and/or in the slope of the trend function. The timing of the structural break is treated as unknown and is endogenously searched from the data. It is found that for a vast majority of countries, the real exchange rate can be characterized as a stationary process with a broken trend. The paper provides support for PPP in the long run.     

DELAYS IN STABILIZATION OR IN REFORMS? THE DEBT CRISIS

Empirical analyses attributing the 1980s’ debt crisis to inconsistent stabilization policies rest on an inappropriate long‐run approach. Revising this long‐run approach yields opposite results: terms of trade shocks and foreign indebtedness explain this crisis, regardless of domestic stabilization policies. This prompts us to consider a new hypothesis, of delays in trade‐policy reforms, with a model in which terms‐of‐trade variation (under shocks) is endogenous to export structure and efficiency of resource allocation. Evidence from the structural equations model shows that allocation distortions negatively affect changes in terms of trade, which then explain this crisis. A political economy extension demonstrates that income inequality and regional trade policy determine the distortions, which in turn leads to this crisis.     

Export survival and the dynamics of experience

This paper focuses on developing countries’ pioneer exports to the OECD and obtains several important results on export dynamics, linking export experience and export survival. Using product level data at the SITC 5-digit level for 114 developing countries over the 1962–2009 period, we show that prior export experience obtained in non-OECD markets significantly increases survival of pioneer exports toward the OECD. The experience does not need to last long, as gaining experience for more than two years does not confer any additional benefit. The effect of experience depreciates rapidly with time: a break in export experience prior to entering the OECD reduces the advantage on survival. Finally, the role of prior export experience is particularly relevant for survival in the first two years upon entry into the OECD. The geographic dynamic of export experience reveals that experience is acquired in neighboring, easy to access markets before reaching more distant, richer partners and ultimately serving the OECD with a higher probability of survival.     

The Unit Root Hypothesis for Aggregate Output May Not Hold after All: New Evidence from a Panel Stationarity Test with Multiple Breaks

This paper investigates the hypothesis of a unit root in output for four panels of real gross domestic product (GDP) and real GDP per capita series in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). For that purpose, a panel stationarity test is employed that assumes a highly flexible trend function by incorporating an unknown number of breaks in level and slope. This analysis renders clear-cut evidence in favor of regime-wise trend stationarity in OECD output for the three data sets of annual data, while evidence of nonstationarity is found for the data set based on quarterly data, which is composed of only seven countries over the shortest time span. Overall, the results herein stand in stark contrast to previously published results that do not control for the existence of structural change in the trend function, but accord well with those that employ panel unit root tests that allow for a single homogeneous break in the trend function.     

Home Market Effects of Foreign Trade in China＇s Manufacturing Sector： Analysis Using International Standard Industry Classification Panel Data

In this paper,we use 2002-2008 International Standard Industry Classification two-digit bilateral trade panel data for manufacturing industries in China and the OECD countries to test for the existence of home market effects.We find that significant home market effects exist in 8 out of 12 industries.These industries include the food,beverage and tobacco industry, wood products,the paper products and printing industry,chemical products,other nonmetallic mineral products,machinery and equipment,transport equipment,and miscellaneous products and waste resources recycling industry.Textile,clothing and leather manufacturing,oil refining and nuclear fuel manufacturing,rubber and plastics,and basic metals and fabricated metal products industries do not exhibit home market effects.Indeed, strong reverse home market effects occur for oil refining and nuclear fuel manufacturing and for the rubber and plastics industry.The empirical results reveal that certain industries benefit from new export opportunities due to the expansion of domestic demand in China.     

Flying with the Dragon: Estimating Developing Countries’ Gains from China's Imports

As a large trading nation, China competes with importing countries’ domestic and third‐country markets but also creates growth opportunities for exporters. Most studies on China trade shocks or “China shocks” focuse on the impacts of import competition on developed economies. The present paper complements research on China shocks by exploring the other side of the trade exposure to China – China as the largest importer, rather than as an exporter. We analyze the effects of export expansion into China on the local labor markets of the exporting developing countries for the years 1992 to 2018. Using detailed export and employment data, we estimate employment pattern variations in manufacturing industries with exports from other developing countries as instruments for export exposure. We find that the increase in trade exposure to China in the world economy has caused extensive job gains in manufacturing industries in developing countries that were exporters. On average, our estimations show that this trade exposure created approximately 1.5 million additional jobs from 1992 to 2018, which made an important contribution to manufacturing industries in developing countries. Our empirical analysis also shows that trade had stabilizing effects on employment in the countries in our sample generally.