Dating business cycles in the United Kingdom, 1700–2010

This paper constructs a new chronology of the business cycle in the United Kingdom from 1700 on an annual basis and from 1920 on a quarterly basis to 2010. The new chronology points to several observations about the business cycle. First, the cycle has significantly increased in duration and amplitude over time. Second, contractions have become less frequent but are as persistent and costly as at other times in history. Third, the typical recession has been tick-shaped with a short contraction and longer recovery. Finally, the major causes of downturns have been sectoral shocks, financial crises, and wars.     

How Asymmetrically Increasing Joint Strike Costs Need Not Lead to Fewer Strikes

The joint costs model states that increasing union and firm strike costs lead to fewer strikes. This paper shows that strike incidence need not decrease when joint strike costs increase. The innovation is to raise union and firm joint strike costs in an asymmetric way. The results indicate that increasing either party’s strike costs can have ambiguous effects on strike incidence. This ambiguity explains why higher strike costs need not always lead to fewer strikes, and thus accounts for the mixed success observed in studies that empirically test the joint costs model with strike incidence data.     

Business responses to crisis in Indonesia: the 1930s and the 1990s

This article looks at the responses of foreign business firms to crisis in a comparative historical perspective. The focus is on Indonesia in the 1930s and the late 1990s. The main approach is one of case studies in order to gain an insight into strategies of adjustment to deteriorating business conditions. For the late 1990s, such information is supplemented by macroeconomic evidence covering a wider range of firms. The article reaffirms a basic resilience of foreign direct investment in times of economic crisis even when there is an overall economic decline, as in Indonesia in the 1990s. The capacity of foreign firms in Indonesia to adjust successfully was considerable both in the 1930s and the late 1990s. Yet, prospects for a swift recovery are far better in the latter case than in the former period, reflecting the different nature of the two crises.     

Wage strikes in 1880s America: A test of the war of attrition model

By relating strike outcomes and durations to the value of the disputed wage change and to the cost to each side of continuing the strike, this paper tests the hypothesis that the war of attrition with asymmetric information model of strikes accurately describes the characteristics of strikes over wages in the United States in the early to middle part of the 1880s. That hypothesis is not rejected by linear, probit, or nonparametric kernel estimation. Specifically, variables that decrease a side’s cost of striking or increase its opponent’s cost are shown to increase its maximum holdout time, and vice versa, and strike duration increases with the value of the prize in dispute and with uncertainty about the outcome. Alternative game theoretic models of strikes—signaling and screening models, and models with ongoing negotiations—do not fit the data as well. We also explore why the strikes took the form of wars of attrition, and why later strikes did not. Our results have implications for modern union behavior in the face of globalization.     

The rise and fall of the sliding scale, or why wages are no longer indexed to product prices

Though almost no postwar union contracts indexed wage rates to prices of the employer’s products, union agreements linking wage rates to product prices, known as sliding scales, were common in some industries in the United States and Britain from the 1860s through the 1930s. This paper explains why sliding scales disappeared after the 1930s, and examines what practical experience with sliding scales revealed about fundamental constraints on wage indexation. Paradoxically, the history of sliding scales confirms that workers’ information about product prices and materials costs is generally imperfect, in ways that would substantially constrain wage indexation in long-term contracts. Sliding scales were not indexed long-term contracts, but rather devices to forestall costly strikes in the absence of contracts by revealing employers’ private information about product demand. In the postwar US, unions and employers failed to link wage rates to product prices because they had gained the ability to enter binding contracts, which could achieve the benefits of preventing strikes without incurring the extra negotiation costs and information problems associated with product-price indexation. I present a model to show how sliding scales could forestall strikes by revealing information, and how the introduction of binding union contracts reduced incentives to link wages to product prices.     

Making sense of immigration policy: Argentina, 1870–1930

The aim of this article is to disentangle the different forces that shaped Argentinian immigration policy from 1870 to 1930. A new index of immigration policy is presented, showing how immigration restrictions increased over time but, in contrast with the US, Argentina remained open to mass migration until the 1930s. The quantitative evidence presented here suggests that there were economic reasons to restrict immigration prior to the 1930s, namely rising inequality, the closing of the frontier, and the declining relative quality of immigrants. A political economy interpretation helps to understand the long‐run evolution of immigration policy. Labour interests could not be translated into Parliament in a direct way. A large share of workers did not have the right to vote simply because they were foreigners. Inequality influenced immigration policy through social unrest since those negatively affected by massive immigration developed alternative actions: general strikes, labour unrest, and violence. Contrary to what economic theory would have predicted, anti‐immigration legislation came from Argentinian capital and landowners who feared political and social unrest.     

Cyclical Quality Adjustment in the Labor Market

Various reasons have been put forward to explain the stylized fact that the wages of job starters are more procyclical than the wages of workers who don't change jobs. I explore the theoretical and empirical basis for one such reason: firms adjust the quality of workers assigned to jobs over the business cycle. I show that there is evidence that quality adjustment is an important feature of cyclical adjustment in labor markets. New hires of any particular ability level get lower quality jobs in recessions than in booms. The results indicate that about half of the wage procyclicality of new hires can be ascribed to variation in the matches between firms and workers over the business cycle. These systematic changes in assignment imply that government policy aimed at high-skill sectors can have positive effects on low-skill individuals by increasing the probability that they upgrade occupation and industry.     

Against the mainstream: Nazi privatization in 1930s Germany1

Nationalization was particularly important in the early 1930s in Germany. The state took over a large industrial concern, large commercial banks, and other minor firms. In the mid‐1930s, the Nazi regime transferred public ownership to the private sector. In doing so, they went against the mainstream trends in western capitalistic countries, none of which systematically reprivatized firms during the 1930s. Privatization was used as a political tool to enhance support for the government and for the Nazi Party. In addition, growing financial restrictions because of the cost of the rearmament programme provided additional motivations for privatization.     

We Used to Get and Give a Lot of Help: Networking,Cooperation and Knowledge Flow in the Hunter Valley Wine Cluster

The Hunter Valley, New South Wales, is both Australia's oldest continually producing wine region and a highly functioning wine business cluster. New generation cluster actors perceive that the region's concentration of historic family‐based firms has contributed to its strength. We have used rarely consulted and newly accessioned evidence from the 1820s to the 1920s to qualitatively test the extent to which early networking created pathways for knowledge flow in the region. Our cross‐disciplinary research into the historic depth of embedded cooperation reveals a little known feature of early Australian business history and complements the more commonplace breadth approach in cluster studies.     

Conflict and compromise: Changes in U.S. strike outcomes, 1880 to 1945

Before about 1900, most strikes in the United States were either won or lost by the workers who called them. Relatively few strikes ended in any sort of compromise. Sometime during the last decade of the 19th century, however, the pattern begins to change, with the fraction of strikes ending in compromise peaking at nearly half during World Wars I and II. What explains these changes in strike outcomes between the late 19th century and 1945? We explore the effects of macroeconomic conditions, industrial organization and product markets, labor organization, law and public policy, and immigration and trade on the costs and benefits of achieving strike compromises. We find that temporary government intervention in settling strikes during World War I helped move labor and management away from an adversarial equilibrium, and thus allowed growing acceptance of organized labor to be reflected in a permanent increase in the rate of compromise. We conclude that changes in the nature of strike outcomes represent an important and neglected aspect of broader changes in the place of organized labor in the American political economy.     

On the nature and causes of business fluctuations in Italy, 1861-2000

Since Unification (1861), Italy has experienced approximately 20 business cycles. In the same period, the country’s economic structure has changed dramatically. This essay analyses the nature and causes of business fluctuations in Italy over one and a half century emphasizing the role of structural change in shaping each cyclical episode. A mix of real and nominal factors, structural change, and the evolving financial conditions of firms and banks makes every cycle a ‘historical episode’ in and of itself.     

Lynchings,labour, and cotton in the US south: A reappraisal of Tolnay and Beck

I examine lynchings of African Americans in the US South from 1882 to 1930, more than twenty years after Tolnay and Beck’s (1995) seminal work. The authors claim that lynchings were due to economic competition between African American and white cotton workers. I confirm much of their original hypothesis with new data and techniques, and expand upon it, finding that another explanation, Williamson’s (1997) psychosexual one, might complement the economic one. I also discover that, in line with an economic competition framework, lynchings predict more black out-migration from 1920 to 1930, and higher state-level wages.     

Updated estimates of UK GDP from the income side, 1841–1920

This article brings together some of the improvements to GDP estimates from the income side since the publication of Charles Feinstein's 1972 volume National income, expenditure and output of the United Kingdom, 1855–1965. Many of the improvements and refinements were made by Feinstein himself and this paper makes a start in bringing the different elements together, focusing chiefly on reconstructing the income-based estimates for the period 1841–1920. The new data are then used to comment on several features of the late nineteenth-century UK economy, considering both the trend and cyclical path of the economy. The new data, coupled with modern de-trending methods, suggest that there was a long-term slowing of the UK economy from the late nineteenth century, starting from the 1870s. To undertake the trend–cycle decomposition, we employ a wavelets methodology to describe the time–varying features of trends and cycles over this period.     

Shakeout in the early commercial airframe industry

The commercial airframe industry in the US experienced a shakeout from the early 1930s into the post‐Second World War period. Unlike shakeouts in automobiles, tyres, or televisions, the commercial airframe industry's early life cycle was affected by external factors, particularly government demand. Using newly digitized data on all planes introduced in the commercial market between 1926 and 1965, we find that commercial airframe manufacturers with bomber contracts during the Second World War were more likely to have postwar market share than firms without such contracts, controlling for plane characteristics and other forms of government contracting. We attribute the effect of bomber contracts to advantages in R&D learning capacity acquired by firms with military airframe contracts. Despite low (or zero) initial presence in the commercial market, these learning capacity advantages allowed such firms to survive the early period of the shakeout, and later to thrive.     

The cost of railroad regulation: the disintegration of American agricultural markets in the interwar period

This article investigates the costs of transport regulation using the example of agricultural markets in the US. Using a large database of prices by state of agricultural commodities, we find that dispersion fell for many commodities until the First World War. We demonstrate that this reflected changes in transport costs which in turn in the long run depended on productivity growth in railroads. The year 1920 marked a change in this relationship, however, and between the First and Second World Wars we find considerable disintegration of agricultural markets, ultimately as a consequence of the 1920 Transportation Act. We argue that this benefited railroad companies in the 1920s and workers in the 1930s, and we put forward an estimate of the welfare losses for the consumers of railroad services (that is, agricultural producers and final consumers).     

Is There a Link Between Casual Employment and Export-Orientation of Firms? The Case of Kenya’s Manufacturing Sector

Empirical evidence on the link between trade and employment outcomes in Africa is severely limited. The paper analyses employment outcomes, that is, the rise in casual employment in Kenya’s manufacturing sector in relation to firms’ export orientation. While exporting firms generally account for a higher proportion of employment in the manufacturing sector, the proportion of workers in exporting firms declined by over 20% between the early 1990s and 2003. On the other hand, the proportion of casual workers employed in manufacturing firms increased over the same period. However, the empirical results show no strong evidence of “exporting” significantly influencing the proportion of casual workers employed by firms. The combination of an increasingly skilled labour force in Kenya and deepening casualisation among workers points to a conundrum that requires further analysis. That notwithstanding, the results suggest a need for policy focus not only on job creation, but also on the quality of jobs created.     

The economic effects of the 1920 eight-hour working day reform in Sweden

In 1920, the working day in Swedish manufacturing and services was cut from 10 to 8 hours without wages being cut correspondingly. Since workers demanded and got the same daily wage working 8 hours as they had with 10, real hourly wages increased dramatically; they were about 50% higher in 1921–1922 than they had been in 1919. This is the largest wage push in Swedish history, and this paper studies the consequences for profits, investments, capital intensity and unemployment. In traded manufacturing employers responded by increasing capital intensity and did not compensate for rising wages by raising prices, which led to a combination of jobless growth and low profit rates in the 1920s. Firms in non-traded manufacturing and services could raise prices and conserve profitability to a higher degree. In total, the effects of the reform were pro-labour. We discuss the implications for our understanding of interwar wages and employment, the literature on the decrease in inequality found in most industrial countries around 1920 and the rise of the ‘Swedish model’ in the 1920s and 1930s.     

Black Progress Through Business Improvement: Two Articles by Joseph R. Houchins, 1900-1989

In the spirit of further expanding the heretofore unsung contributions of African American economists, we present two unpublished works from the 1930s of Joseph Roosevelt Houchins. They focus on Black business development and strategy. Biographical information and historical context for Houchins’s life experiences during the twentieth century are included in an introduction. Houchins was a member of President Franklin Roosevelt’s Black Cabinet, a leader of the Division of Negro Affairs in the U.S. Department of Commerce, and a chair and professor of economics at Howard University. These two writings reflect a strategic effort to strengthen the efficiency and impact of Black business as an engine of Black progress. The first document presented here analyzes the high failure rate of Black-owned insurance companies, a mainstay of Black business especially in the 1920s and 30s. Houchins determined that their failure was due to several factors: lack of business knowledge; lack of access to capital; a tendency towards over-expenditure on office furnishings; and an over-identification with the clients, paying unjustified claims and failing to collect premiums on policies. The second document reports the results of a national survey that Houchins conducted to create a complete listing of Black chambers of commerce that could be used for intra-racial communication and mutual support. Both documents resonate today as the struggle for Black progress continues.     

The value of active politicians on supervisory boards: evidence from the Berlin stock exchange and the parliament in interwar Germany

We provide the first overview over all political connections of firms via current Members of Parliament on supervisory boards and board of directors listed on the Berlin stock exchange in the 1920s. In contrast to anecdotal evidence, which suggest that political connections were expected to have a positive effect on firms’ performance, an event study based on the election in December 1924 and May 1928 shows only little evidence that a political connection via a newly elected or re-elected politician generated value. These results complement previous research emphasising that political connections might have mattered less in democracies.     

Local country attributes and the emergence of high tech clusters

The aim of this study is to explore the effect of a country’s attributes on the decision of firms to be active globally. We first built a theoretical model, which shows that an initial difference in the business environment may dampen the desire of firms located in countries with a relatively weak business environment to seek a higher level of R&D. The decision not to pursue higher levels of R&D leads, in turn, to lower output and lower scope of activity of global firms in these countries. Moreover, firms with relatively high level of management skills will choose to migrate from a relatively weak country to one with a stronger business environment, creating a brain drain that will further impoverish the weak country.