企业中层管理者绩效考核模式优化研究

随着我国企业迅速成长,企业中层管理者绩效考核问题逐渐是广大民众关注的热点问题。本文通过在分析KRIF绩效考核模型缺陷的基础上,结合管理者绩效结构理论,构建了WAIEI绩效考核模型,研究证明:该绩效考核模型弥补了KRIF模型的对企业中层管理者考核的不足,更科学、合理,考核范围更为全面,对我国企业中层管理者绩效考核有一定的启发意义。     

自主经营体商业模式创新案例研究

自互联网诞生以来,关于商业模式的研究在理论界及企业界已成为一个热点及前沿问题,但是目前关于商业模式的研究更多集中于商业模式的定义、要素、分类等理论研究上,从商业模式实践的角度进行系统的案例研究显得相对缺乏。海尔自主经营体商业模式体现了商业模式由理论到实践的转变。首先,本文在回顾商业模式相关文献的基础上,从自主经营体商业机制的构建、设计和组织结构的调整等方面考察了自主经营体商业模式的实践。最后,基于案例分析提炼出自主经营体商业模式的创新之处,力求通过案例研究为我国企业商业模式的创新理论与实践提供有价值的参考。     

Inefficiency of sponsored research

I consider two models of sponsored research — one is the model where researchers get funded until (if ever) a research project experiences the first failure (bad news model), the other one is the model where the winner (if any) of a research race is rewarded (good news model). In either case, the researchers start working on a project of unknown quality. The quality of the project is identified with its ability to generate failures or successes, in the first and second models, respectively. The rate of arrival of success conditioned on the quality of the project is an increasing function of the total time spent on research. I find equilibria in both models and show that in case of two competing researchers, one of the researchers experiments inefficiently long, in the bad news model or in the good news model when either the winner takes all, or the laggard is punished. In the good news model where the laggard is rewarded, the equilibrium outcome is efficient.     

供应链中配送系统联合优化的数学模型

主要分析了供应链配送系统中分销商和零售商之间的关系．应用最优化方法提出了以转运为基础的动态数学模型。模型中讨论了如何动态地集中控制各分销商和零售商的库存，以最大限度地满足顾客的需求。并给出了按BENGERS方法设计的求解算法。模型中约束方程数量的有限性保证了算法的收敛性。最后，以苏果超市为背景对模型进行实例分析。分析结果表明，该模型能够有效的降低库存，为企业科学决策提供了支持。     

基于未确知测度的工程投标风险及参数确定

给出了未确知测度、置信度的概念，建立了基于未确知测度的工程建设投标风险，报价成本比，中标概率确定模型。本模型在处理不确定性影响因素时较模糊数学丢失信息少，更实用、可靠。最后给出了工程实例加以验证。     

A theoretical model of pedestrian flow

An entropy-maximizing model of a generalized pedestrian flow system is developed. This model is based on a fundamental conception of pedestrian traffic as being contained within a linear network. The model then maximizes the entropy of pedestrian flow within any given network, subject to a basic set of Kirchoff conditions. The resulting final equations are a special case of the gravity model. A general solution method is discussed and several numerical experiments with the model are described.     

系统动力学在超市配送中心库存策略中的应用

本文提出了将系统动力学用于确定超市配送中心订货量与库存量的有效方法，根据系统动力学建模的基本原理．建立超市配送中心库存系统动力学模型，对该模型进行运行及结果分析。     

新的Hopfield神经网络分类器在葡萄酒质量评价中的应用

建立一种新的Hopfield神经网络分类器模型,该模型通过训练单层前向神经网络来设计,数据兼容性强,可以直接处理来自UCI数据库的葡萄酒的理化性质测试指标数据和专家的感官评价等级数据,实现葡萄酒质量分类。仿真结果表明,该分类器设计简单,耗时短,分类效果明显。     

体育场馆维修决策综合评定方法

体育场馆属于特殊公共建筑，体系复杂，维修决策所考虑的因素较多，其中很多因素具有较高的未确知性，不能将各种定性和定量指标综合起来进行评价，往往导致评价结果失真。本文给出了未确知测度、置信度的概念，建立了基于未确知测度的体育场馆维修决策综合评价模型。本模型在处理不确定性影响因素时较模糊数学丢失信息少，更实用、可靠。最后给出了工程实例加以验证。     

基于服务水平的区域物流中心优化选址模型研究

分析了区域物流中心的选址问题,构造了一类基于服务水平约束、综合考虑物流中心运输成本、配送线路及物流中心覆盖范围的网络化选址模型;设计了基于禁忌搜索思想的启发式算法求解该模型.     

Bayesian analysis of the ordered probit model with endogenous selection

This paper presents a Bayesian analysis of an ordered probit model with endogenous selection. The model can be applied when analyzing ordered outcomes that depend on endogenous covariates that are discrete choice indicators modeled by a multinomial probit model. The model is illustrated by analyzing the effects of different types of medical insurance plans on the level of hospital utilization, allowing for potential endogeneity of insurance status. The estimation is performed using the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to approximate the posterior distribution of the parameters in the model.     

公路隧道照明节能控制系统模型的硬件设计与实现

为验证基于模糊神经网络隧道照明调光法的控制策略和节能效果,需要制作隧道仿真模型来做验证。文章介绍了隧道仿真模型的硬件设计和实现,模型系统以监控计算机作为控制核心,照明灯具布置完全仿照实际隧道,PLC控制器一方面采集洞外亮度、车速、车流量的模拟信息,并上传至监控计算机,另一方面接受上位机的控制数据,并通过RS-485总线将数据发送给PWM控制模块,实现对照明各回路的无极调光,系统还可通过控制面板实现手动开关控制。     

Space-varying Coefficient Simultaneous Autoregressive Models for the Structural Analysis of Residential Water Demand

Abstract

This study develops two space-varying coefficient simultaneous autoregressive (SVC-SAR) models for areal data and applies them to the discrete/continuous choice model, which is an econometric model based on the consumer's utility maximization problem. The space-varying coefficient model is a statistical model in which the coefficients vary depending on their location. This study introduces the simultaneous autoregressive model for the underlying spatial dependence across coefficients, where the coefficients for one observation are affected by the sum of those for the other observations. This model is named the SVC-SAR model. Because of its flexibility, we use the Bayesian approach and construct its estimation method based on the Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. The proposed models are applied to estimate the Japanese residential water demand function, which is an example of the discrete/continuous choice model.     

国债回购利率模型的实证研究

波动率是利率期限结构模型的重要因素,基于CKLS模型并运用SV模型对对国债券市场中具有基准性质的市场利率国债回购利率波动性建模,运用Bayes方法对模型参数进行估计,效果良好。     

Robust estimation of ARIMA models

The paper discusses methods of estimating univariate ARIMA models with outliers. The approach calls for a state vector representation of a time-series model, on which we can then operate on using the Kalman filter. One of the additional advantages of Kalman filter operating on the state vector representation is that the method and code could easily be adapted to be applicable to the ARIMA model with missing observations. The paper investigates ways to calculate robust initial estimation of the parameters of the ARIMA model. The method proposed is based on the results obtained by R.D. Martin (1980).     

机械臂逆运动控制模型与方法

据机械臂关节轴线方向建立了连杆坐标系,采用Denavit-Hartenberg(D-H)法求出各关节之间的坐标系变换矩阵,利用机械臂关节间的联体关系建立了机械臂正运动学模型,通过反向求解正运动模型得到机械臂逆运动学模型。为了解决逆运动控制问题,利用种群平均信息,提出了改进的多种群差分演化算法。最后数值试验表明新算法可以有效求解机械臂逆运动学模型。     

一种集成的企业物流绩效评价模型的构建与应用研究

企业物流绩效评价的关键是怎样选择或建立评价模型,以及怎样根据评价模型建立评价指标体系。在分析BSC模型、Delphi法和MMDC模型的原理基础上,分别指出了它们的优势和不足,结合企业物流绩效评价指标体系的需求,提出了EL-BDM评价模型。利用EL-BDM模型,以某企业为应用背景,建立了该企业的物流绩效评价指标体系。     

The Development and Empirical Testing of Extended Input-Output Price Models

The focus in this paper is on the input-output price model as initially developed by Leontief nearly 60 years ago. A number of methodological refinements are proposed, including the formulation, for the first time, of an extended price model, with a disaggregated household sector. This model is presented in both static and dynamic versions. The effects of these refinements are investigated empirically by reference to an example of policy analysis. This relates to a hypothetical proposal to remove energy subsidies at the national level in Iran. The paper reports on the different results produced by each form of price model and also provides evidence on the sensitivity of individual parameter values. The paper concludes by considering the feasibility of constructing more comprehensive versions of the price model and identifying those elements of the model for which data are likely to be more difficult to obtain at national and regional levels.     

权力视角下的特许经营授权模式研究

特许经营被实践证明是一种成功的商业运作模式;但对这种网络组织的理论研究一直落后于实践。首先,对国外特许经营授权有关理论进行阐述,指出GHM模型是它们的理论基础。但由于GHM模型中的权利配置基于实物资产,而特许经营中的关键资源是品牌等无形资产,GHM模型作为分析特许经营的授权理论的基础存在明显局限。运用R-Z理论,以特许经营中的外部性分析为起点,对其专用性投资外部性进行考察,分析在不同情景下特许经营的不同授权模式,从而为特许经营授权提供理论依据。     

Enrolment and Delayed Enrolment of Secondary School Age Children in Indonesia

We analyse the school participation decision of children between 13 and 18 years in Indonesia using the 1992 SUSENAS household survey. Our focus is on which household factors determine enrolment and delayed enrolment. We use the multinomial fixed effect model where the cluster-specific fixed effects correct for any regional-specific factors that may influence the demand for education. The model is estimated by conditional maximum likelihood. We find that parent's education has a positive effect on enrolment, where the effects are stronger for boys than for girls. On the other hand, literacy of parents has stronger effects on the girls education than on the boys'. The model without fixed effects is rejected against the model with fixed effects. Hence, omitting regional variation in the model would have led to biased estimates.