Consumption of Economic Information in Agriculture

We develop a model of decision makers' demand for agricultural economic information services. This model treats choice of external decision-support services as a function of actors' assessment of how alternative investments in information complement their internal competencies. Data from a survey in four commodity systems are used to evaluate hypotheses as to how human capital, and functional role of actors in commodity systems affect demand for variously formatted information. By focusing on three axes of heterogeneity—diversity among decision makers, information service providers, and information—we are able to identify key structural and functional relationships in agricultural economic information systems.     

Establishing a Framework for an Information System

Many decision errors arise out of a failure to understand the nature and structure of the information system that supports policy decisions, public or private. For a information system to be reliable and accurate three subsystems, data collection, inquiry (or analysis) and policy decision, must share the same base of concepts, measurable proxies porn the real world to represent those concepts, and compatible measurement techniques and processing designs in the data used. All information systems must be closely adapted to the specific context of the decisions they are intended to support.
Rapid globalization of markets and the parallel revolution in information technologies and supporting information infrastructure, institutions and human capital are transforming the agri-food sector. The food system is moving away from mass markets driven by the production of standardized commodities toward many smaller, diverse, and customized niche markets driven by consumer preferences for specific food characteristics. Concentration, vertical coordination and integration are growing, particularly in the livestock sector, and especially hogs. Information technologies now permit firms to discover and track consumer preferences while the new biotechnologies make it possible to create the characteristics in products that consumers desire in niche markets. Information has itself become an important commodity.     

Quantifying the structure of food demand in China: An econometric approach

This article examines food demand structure and its dynamics for 11 commodities in urban China. The analysis is based on household‐level expenditure survey data for two cross‐sectional surveys of Chinese households pertaining to food expenditure patterns during 1995 and 2003. Pre‐committed components of commodity demands, that are insensitive to economic variables, are explored. We use the generalized quadratic almost ideal demand system (GQAIDS) for its empirical superiority to the generalized almost ideal demand system (GAIDS), and estimate the associated parameters via full information maximum likelihood procedure (FIML) accounting for endogeneity of total expenditures on food for home consumption (FAH). We also use quality‐adjusted commodity unit values to control for quality differences resulting from commodity aggregation and food choice. Furthermore, we derive GQAIDS elasticity formulas, and estimate income elasticities without restrictions. The results partially support the hypothesis that an average Chinese household has incorporated elements of Western diet (fine grains) into traditional Chinese food diet over time. Moreover, the outcome of a simple test developed here points to possible preference changes for a majority of food staples under study.     

林农视角福建省林业生产类公共信息服务研究

通过问卷调查了解福建省永安市、尤溪县、连城县、永泰县这4个重点林区林农生产类公共信息服务需求情况。在此基础上,以林农个体特征、诱导因素、生产类公共信息服务获取渠道、信息质量、林农付费意愿、林农对信息服务人员的认可等作为林农生产类公共信息服务需求的预期影响因素,利用多元线性回归分别对林农生产类公共信息服务需求影响因素进行了实证分析。结果表明:林农需求的主要影响因素为林农的健康状况、家庭林业年收入、林农付费意愿、对服务人员的认可和信息获取渠道数。因此,提出拓宽林农公共信息服务获取渠道;从数量和质量上提高林业公共信息服务水平;注重信息服务人员与林农需求之间的对接以及提高林农对信息的认知等建议。     

生态系统的商品和服务属性及其提供的环境收入

生态系统具有商品和服务的属性,人类的生产和生活依赖于这些商品和服务。生态系统提供的商品和服务所体现的价值是人类从系统中获取的环境收入。农村家庭从公共共享资源中以不同途径获得的环境收入,用于家庭成员消费和商品交换。公共资源支撑力的衰退,迫使人们加强生态系统支撑能力建设。     

SOA标准森林经营业务流程管理系统柔性设计

将SOA与BPM结合,通过SOA和Web Service指导架构设计和技术工具选择,构建柔性化森林经营管理决策系统。系统采用SaaS云计算环境部署配置、采用Spring MVC框架三层架构、基于Activiti 5引擎进行业务流程管理、使用RESTful轻架构设计Web Service服务接口组成柔性技术模型。该模型能够提高系统的可扩展性与灵活性,为后期集成国有林管理局其它异构系统提供技术基础。应用结果表明:该平台系统具有柔性和敏捷性,能够在业务变化时快速响应,并且允许对外部异构系统服务进行访问,验证了所构建模型的柔性基础。     

Using participatory mapping and a participatory geographic information system in pastoral land use investigation: Impacts of rangeland policy in Botswana

Since the 1980s, the spatial extent of communal grazing lands in Botswana has been diminishing due to rangeland privatisation and fencing associated with animal health policies. Spatial comparisons of pastoral land use transformations are particularly important where accessibility to grazing and water resources remains at the core of sustainable pastoralism policies. Achieving success in pastoral development research requires a sound understanding of traditional pastoralists’ information systems, including the nature of local spatial knowledge. This study explores local spatial knowledge through participatory mapping and a Participatory Geographic Information System to understand and analyse pastoralists’ grazing patterns, spatial mobility and the impacts of subdivisions and privatisation policies in Botswana’s Ngamiland rangelands. The study uses focus group discussions, historical analysis through key informant interviews, and participatory mapping exercises along with community guided transect walks. The resulting maps provide insights into the traditional tenure patterns of land use and the impacts of rangeland policy on traditional livestock spatial mobility and access to grazing lands. Privatisation and rangeland enclosures have resulted in the restricted movement of livestock and overstocking of floodplains and riparian rangelands, with some natural water pans becoming inaccessible to local communities. We conclude that the integration of local spatial knowledge can be used to foster better articulation and understanding of pastoralists’ tenures, which are often lacking in communal land administration systems. Such integrated analysis can contribute to sustainable pastoral land management policy toolkits in semi-arid rangeland environments and enable better land tenure and management decision making for sustainable land management.     

On the Demand for Information Services: An Application to Lowbush Blueberry Producers in Eastern Canada

Information needs have rapidly evolved in agricultural markets but little is known about how information is transmitted to agricultural producers. Producers must collect information to better manage their production, marketing and financial decisions. Using survey data obtained from a questionnaire distributed to lowbush blueberry producers in eastern Canada, we analyze how producers' individual characteristics impact their demand for different information services. Minimum distance estimation of the structural ordered probit equations indicates that:

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  Confidence in the information service is a central determinant of the frequency at which a producer refers to a specific service.

       
  
  

Monetary policy shocks and the dynamics of agricultural commodity prices: evidence from structural and factor‐augmented VAR analyses

Fluctuation in commodity prices is a significant and timely issue to be studied. This study is to examine the impact of monetary policy and other macroeconomic shocks on the dynamics of agricultural commodity prices. The major contributions of this study are twofold. First, unlike other studies that use indexes, this study analyzes the commodities individually, affording the inclusion of commodity‐specific fundamentals such as the level of inventory—an important determinant of commodity price—in a structural VAR framework. Second, it exploits a rich data set of agricultural commodity prices which includes commodities that are usually overlooked in the literature, and extracts a common factor using the dynamic factor model to understand the extent of comovement of the prices and to gauge the extent to which macroeconomic shocks drive the “comovement” in a factor‐augmented VAR (FAVAR) framework. The findings show that monetary policy, global economic conditions, and the U.S. dollar exchange rates play an important role in the dynamics of agricultural commodity prices.     

World Commodity Prices and Domestic Retail Food Price Inflation: Some Insights from the UK

We focus on two aspects of the links between world commodity prices and retail food price inflation: first, the effects of exchange rates and other input costs, and second; the effects of the duration of shocks on world commodity markets, not just the magnitude of price spikes (the latter often commanding most attention). The UK offers a natural and rather unexplored setting for the analysis. Applying time series methods to a sample of 259 monthly observations over the 1990(9)–2012(3) period we find substantial and significant long‐term partial elasticities for domestic food price inflation with respect to world food commodity prices, the exchange rate and oil prices (the latter indirectly via a relationship with world food commodity prices). Domestic demand pressures and food chain costs are found to be less substantial and significant over our data period. Interactions between the main driving variables in the system tend to moderate rather than exacerbate these partial effects. Furthermore, the persistence of shocks to these variables markedly affects their effects on domestic food prices.     

Livelihood diversification,mobile phones and information diversity in Northern Tanzania

Throughout the developing world, households are diversifying their livelihood activities to manage risk and improve their lives. Many studies have focused on the material causes and consequences of this diversification. Few, however, have examined how diversifying groups establish new patterns of communication and information exchange with others. This paper examines the relationship between livelihood diversification and information diversity among agro-pastoralist Maasai in northern Tanzania, where new mobile phone use is common. Mixed qualitative and quantitative methods of data collection and analysis are used to (1) describe how Maasai use phones to manage diverse livelihoods; and (2) assess the relationship between livelihood diversification and measures of information diversity, controlling for other factors. The findings indicate that households use phones in ways that support existing activities rather than transform them and that the relationship between livelihood diversification and information diversity is positive, non-linear, and significant.     

Nudging farmers in crop choice using price information: Evidence from Ethiopian Commodity Exchange

The lack of reference price information is often regarded as one of the most pervasive aspects of incomplete commodity markets in developing countries. Previous studies on the effects of price information emphasize the market participation and performance of rural households. This paper argues that access to reference price information influences farmers’ crop choice decisions, the most important decision in farming activity. The study exploits the variation in timing and spatial distance of the publicly run Ethiopian Commodity Exchange (ECX) price tickers as an indicator for variation in the intensity of access to reference price information among rural villages in Ethiopia. The paper finds that access to price information increases the average farm-gate prices for traded commodities and incentivizes farmers to allocate more land, fertilizer and improved seeds to commodities traded in the ECX. It also nudges farmers to produce more of the traded commodities, increasing the output share of ECX-traded commodities.     

Adoption of volunteered geographic information into the formal land administration system in Kenya

Individualization of tenure through title registration programmes introduced in many African countries after independence with the promise of security of tenure and increased agricultural productivity has, instead, had the opposite effect. Informal land arrangements continue to emerge as a result of the slow pace of land adjudication (formalization) and updating of land information systems. The trend towards computerization of land information systems has only put focus on already existing formal land tenure arrangements, leaving out the informal social tenure arrangements. As a result, there are now many efforts worldwide motivated by the introduction of the Social Tenure Domain Model (STDM), and freely-available and easy-to-use technology tools to identify, document and map land in support of informal land administration arrangements. Actions are made towards the use of community-generated information to support land administration. Using theories from the interplay between formal and informal institutions, this paper discusses the potential outcomes in adopting Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI) in land administration in Kenya. Two case studies are presented that demonstrate the complementary-accommodating, versus the substitutive-competing approaches. These are then compared with the formal land adjudication process in Kenya. It is established that because of the direct involvement of the national mapping agency in land adjudication where VGI is utilized, the outcome is a case of formal adoption of VGI, while in the other case, where there is little or no involvement by the national mapping agency, the outcome is more of competition and substitution. The latter is an example in which the VGI is used just like any other information to inform policy making, rather than taking it as the authoritative source. We argue that since informality is – and will always be – part and parcel of land administration in many African countries as a result of ingrained social relations and power structures, adopting crowdsourced land information into existing formal land administration systems should consider the particular land administration process, satisfying innate demands and requirements, thus re-engineered to accommodate VGI.     

结构方程模型森林康养消费需求因素分析

以计划行为理论为基础进行设计问卷,结合实地调研与在线问卷调查数据,运用结构方程模型研究现阶段中国居民森林康养消费需求的影响机制。结果表明:中国森林康养产业普及程度较浅,深度的森林康养内容认知与发展进展很浅薄;森林康养消费需求会促使居民的消费行为,而态度、知觉控制会显著正向影响居民的消费需求,态度、规范与知觉控制之间影响显著。因此,应设计多层次森林康养产品,鼓励森林康养养老,助力脱贫攻坚;提升居民参与森林康养的客观能力,奠定消费战略的基础;研究康养理论,推行康养理念,设计康养服务产品;政企协力推进,构建政-企-森-居-社会协调发展新模式,以便促进森林康养良好发展。     

土地流转、规模经营对农业社会化服务需求的影响分析*——基于江汉平原393个水稻种植大户的调查

［目的］在土地流转加快、农业适度规模经营不断推进背景下,研究种植大户农业社会化服务的需求状况及其影响因素对现代农业发展意义重大。［方法］文章以江汉平原水稻种植大户为研究对象,采用排序模型重点考察土地流转、规模经营因素对农资服务、技术服务、信息服务、农业贷款、基础设施、农业保险、加工销售等7种农业社会化服务需求的影响。［结果］江汉平原农业社会化服务需求总量还有进一步提升的空间; 土地流转年限、土地规模对农业社会化服务需求有着积极影响; 土地流转价格、土地细碎化程度对农业社会化服务需求产生消极影响。［结论］建议政府加快农业社会化服务供给侧结构性改革,完善土地流转市场,规范土地流转方式,降低土地细碎化程度,推进适度规模经营。     

Assessing the benefit of the agroecosystem services: Lithuanian preferences using a latent class approach

This study represents a first analysis of citizens’ willingness to pay (WTP) for agroecosystem services in a Baltic country (Lithuania). Since it is part of the European Union, Lithuania applied environmental agriculture schemes to support the production of agroecosystem services by farmers. Therefore, understanding the demand of such services may help policy makers to allocate funds. This study revealed that Lithuanian residents are concerned about environmental problems that may be caused by agriculture. Moreover, while the provision of agroecosystem services is demanded, citizens show very different tastes concerning these services. The application of a latent class model highlights three groups of citizens with different tastes and levels of WTP. Among the ecosystem services tested, the landscape provisions show the highest level of heterogeneity across the class. This study’s findings provide quantitative information concerning the demand for improvements in agroecosystem services through agri-environmental protection programmes. The obtained data supports the conclusion that choice experiments are a reliable tool to analyse consumers’ preferences related to environmental protection in Lithuania.     

Some neglected issues in food demand analysis: retail-level demand, health information and product quality

Food demand analysis is dominated by the econometric estimation of demand systems based on aggregate market data and steady progress has been made in analytical techniques. Yet some issues have been neglected in food demand analysis which are crucial for understanding recent consumption trends in industrialised countries. Three of these issues are dealt with here: analysis of food demand at the retail level; influence of health information on food demand; and importance of product quality for food demand. It is shown that answers to important questions in these areas can be given when large and unconventional data sets are used.     

The components of the bid‐ask spread: Evidence from the corn futures market

This article examines whether USDA announcements and commodity index fund rolling activity have an impact on liquidity costs, measured by the bid‐ask spread. Using Huang and Stoll's (1997) model of liquidity costs, we estimate whether changes to liquidity costs are driven by its adverse selection, inventory, or order processing components. Commodity index fund roll activity reduces the asymmetric information cost component of liquidity cost due to an increased proportion of noninformation‐based trading, but the inventory cost component increases as (mostly long only) commodity index funds sell their nearby positions and buy the first deferred contract—raising liquidity providers’ risk of building a position. The sum of these two effects is that liquidity costs remain low during index fund roll periods, averaging one “tick” (0.25 cents). On USDA report release days, we find that informed traders raise the asymmetric information component of liquidity costs in the first hour after release, but the inventory cost component is reduced due to the increase in volume. Similar to index fund roll activity, liquidity costs on USDA report release days remain low, averaging one “tick”. Our findings that liquidity costs are minimally changed during USDA report releases and commodity index fund roll periods is consistent with other recent research on liquidity costs, but we show that what drives liquidity costs differs substantially depending on the circumstances surrounding daily trading.     

Measuring the Effects of Generic Dairy Advertising in a Multi-Market Equilibrium

We develop a multi-market equilibrium displacement model that allows demand linkages across downstream product markets, and supply linkages through the common use of a raw commodity as the key input. Applying the model to the dairy sector, we find that the effectiveness of producer-funded advertising depends on the demand relationships across dairy product markets (cross-price and cross-advertising elasticities) as well as the reallocation of milk toward the advertised market. We show that the previous literature, which ignores the horizontal linkages highlighted here, tends to overstate the effectiveness of generic commodity promotion for dairy, and thus results in too much advertising.     

SOME ILLUSTRATIONS OF CHAOS IN COMMODITY MODELS

This paper develops three commodity models which exhibit chaotic behaviour. The examples chosen are a demand system and two cobweb supply and demand models. The latter differ from the standard forms in that they include risk aversion and a new specification for the formation of price expectations. Simulation of the model highlights three implications of chaos: such systems generate complex time-paths even if the exogenous variables within the model are held constant; the simulated time path is critically sensitive to the starting value of variables, and parameter values; and the average behaviour of the system is critically sensitive to parameter and exogenous variable values. ‘Critically sensitive’ means that very small changes in parameter or starting values leads to substantial changes in the time paths of the variables in the model. These results suggest that if real commodity sectors can be characterised as chaotic systems, then the ability to conduct forecasting and policy analysis of such sectors will be severely curtailed.