Child Labor and School Achievement in Latin America

Child labor’s effect on academic achievement is estimatedusing unique data on third and fourth graders in nine Latin-Americancountries. Cross-country variation in truancy regulations providesan exogenous shift in the ages of children normally in thesegrades, providing exogenous variation in the opportunity costof children’s time. Least squares estimates suggest thatchild labor lowers test scores, but those estimates are biasedtoward zero. Corrected estimates are still negative and statisticallysignificant. Children working 1 standard deviation above themean have average scores that are 16 percent lower on mathematicsexaminations and 11 percent lower on language examinations,consistent with the estimates of the adverse impact of childlabor on returns to schooling.     

Gender Bias and Credit Access

We extract an exogenous measure of gender bias from survey responses by descendants of U.S. immigrants on questions about the role of women in society. We then use data on around 6,000 small business firms from 17 countries and find that in high‐gender‐bias countries, female entrepreneurs are more likely to opt out of the loan application process and to resort to informal finance, even though banks do not appear to actively discriminate against them. These results are not driven by credit risk differences between female‐ and male‐owned firms or by any idiosyncrasies in the set of countries in our sample.     

Child Labor, Child Schooling, and Their Interaction with Adult Labor: Empirical Evidence for Peru and Pakistan

Using data from Peru and Pakistan, this article tests two hypotheses:there is a positive association between hours of child laborand poverty, and there is a negative association between childschooling and poverty. Both of these hypotheses are confirmedby the Pakistani data, but not by the Peruvian data. The reductionin poverty rates due to income from children's labor is greaterin Pakistan than in Peru. The nature of interaction betweenadult and child labor markets varies with the gender of thechild and the adult. In Peru rising men's wages significantlyreduce the labor hours of girls, whereas in Pakistan there isa strong complementarity between women's and girls' labor markets.Both data sets agree on the positive role that increasing adulteducation can play in improving child welfare.     

Targeting Child Labor in Debt Bondage: Evidence, Theory, and Policy Implications

Despite recent multilateral efforts to single out child laborin debt bondage as one of the worst forms of child labor, severalimportant questions have yet to be addressed: How pervasiveis the phenomenon? Are there systematic correlations betweenthe incidence of children in debt bondage and the economic,legislative, and financial development indicators of the economy?How does an understanding of these correlates affect the waynational and international policy measures aimed at targetingthis form of child labor are perceived? This article addresseseach of these questions. The empirical findings suggest strongcorrelation between the likelihood of the incidence of childlabor in debt bondage with the stage of development of an economy,the stage of financial development, and enforcement of corelabor rights. Building on this evidence, the article presentsa theoretical model that highlights the drawbacks and meritsof a number of policies aimed at putting checks on child laborin debt bondage.     

Grandmothers and Granddaughters: Old-Age Pensions and Intrahousehold Allocation in South Africa

This article evaluates the impact of a large cash transfer programin South Africa on children's nutritional status and investigateswhether the gender of the recipient affects that impact. Inthe early 1990s the benefits and coverage of the South Africansocial pension program were expanded for the black population.In 1993 the benefits were about twice the median per capitaincome in rural areas. More than a quarter of black South Africanchildren under age five live with a pension recipient. Estimatessuggest that pensions received by women had a large impact onthe anthropometric status (weight for height and height forage) of girls but little effect on that of boys. No similareffect is found for pensions received by men. This suggeststhat the efficiency of public transfer programs may depend onthe gender of the recipient.     

Earnings Components,Accounting Bias and Equity Valuation

In this paper we address three issues in accounting-based equity valuation: (i) How are valuation parameters related to earnings persistence and accounting conservatism when earnings components aggregate, or “add up”, in valuation? (ii) What does aggregation of earnings components in valuation imply for abnormal earnings dynamics? and (iii) When is an earnings component “irrelevant” and “core”?earnings the relevant construct for valuation? Assuming linear valuation, no-arbitrage, dividend irrelevance and clean surplus accounting, we show that when earnings components aggregate, valuation expressions and abnormal earnings dynamics are generalizations of the Ohlson (1995) model, incorporating simple adjustments for accounting conservatism. When “core” earnings are the relevant earnings construct, valuation expressions closely resemble the aggregation case, but core (abnormal) earnings replaces clean surplus (abnormal) earnings. We demonstrate that an earnings component can be irrelevant in valuation even when it is predictable.     

Fund Liquidation, Self-selection, and Look-ahead Bias in the Hedge Fund Industry

A wide range of empirical biases hampers hedge fund databases.In this paper we focus upon survival-related biases and disentanglelook-ahead biases due to self-selection of funds and due tofund termination. Self-selection arises because funds voluntarilyreport their information to data vendors and may decide to stopdoing so. By extending existing methodology, we analyze persistencein hedge fund performance over the period 1994–2000, takinginto account the above biases. The results show that look-aheadbiases due to liquidation and self-selection enforce each otherand may lead to overestimating expected returns by as much as8% per year. Overall, the results are consistent with positivepersistence in hedge fund returns at horizons of two and fourquarters.     

Carry Trades,Order Flow,and the Forward Bias Puzzle

We investigate the relation between foreign exchange (FX) order flow and the forward bias. We outline a decomposition of the forward bias according to which a negative correlation between interest rate differentials and order flow creates a time‐varying risk premium consistent with that bias. Using 10 years of data on FX order flow, we find that more than half of the forward bias is accounted for by order flow—with the rest being explained by expectational errors. We also find that carry trading increases currency‐crash risk in that order flow generates negative skewness in FX returns.     

Labor tax reform, unemployment, and search

A key obstacle to reducing payroll taxes in many industrialized and transition countries is the direct revenue loss to the government that it implies. This paper studies a simple and practical labor tax reform of reducing a payroll tax and increasing a progressive wage tax that keeps the marginal tax wedge unchanged. Such a strategy increases employment, reduces the equilibrium unemployment rate, and increases public revenue as long as workers do not have all the bargaining power in wage negotiations. Moreover, welfare rises if workers’ bargaining power is sufficiently large to exceed a critical value determined by the second-best Hosios condition.      

管理层自利、外部监督与盈利预测偏差

管理层发布的盈利预测反映了企业未来的盈利前景,可能会对公司股票价格产生重要影响。作为企业信息最核心的知情者,管理层理应发布较为准确的盈利预测。然而,很多公司盈利预测却与真实盈利存在较大偏差。那么,管理层是否因为自利动机(比如增减持公司股票)而有意发布有偏差的盈利预测呢?本文以2007年至2013年沪深A股上市公司数据为样本,研究发现:当管理层持股变化时,其更可能发布有偏差的盈利预测。进一步检验外部监督作用的调节效应时发现:当监管机构监督、分析师监督或媒体监督力度较强时,管理层持股变化对盈利预测偏差的正向影响较弱。上述发现意味着,主管部门应将目前孤立进行的预测信息监管和内部人交易监管联系起来一并监管。     

Gender, Professions and Management in the Public Sector

This article examines the location and status of women professionals in the public services, noting their small numbers in the élite sectors and at the highest levels. It also charts the rise in managerialism in the public sector, particularly in those areas where women dominate, and argues that the rise in managerialism is a gendered phenomenon which ensures that women remain in roles and occupations subordinate to men. Equal opportunities policies will have little effect while occupations numerically dominated by women remain devalued and continue to be controlled by men from outside the profession.     

就业、失业与劳动力市场退出——来自资源型城市的实证研究

本文利用Probit和Multinomial logit模型,对影响我国资源型城市就业、失业、退出劳动力市场的因素进行了实证分析,分析认为处于三种不同状态的人群在人口特征、受教育程度和家庭特征等方面具有系统性的差异。     

Financial Globalization,Governance, and the Evolution of the Home Bias

We merge portfolio theories of home bias with corporate finance theories of insider ownership to create the optimal corporate ownership theory of the home bias. The theory has two components: (1) foreign portfolio investors exhibit a large home bias against countries with poor governance because their investment is limited by high optimal ownership by insiders (the “direct effect” of poor governance) and domestic monitoring shareholders (the “indirect effect”) in response to the governance and (2) foreign direct investors from “good governance” countries have a comparative advantage as insider monitors in “poor governance” countries, so that the relative importance of foreign direct investment is negatively related to the quality of governance. Using both country‐level data on U.S. investors' foreign investment allocations and Korean firm‐level data, we find empirical evidence supporting our optimal corporate ownership theory of the home bias.     

Labor market frictions,capital, taxes and employment

International Tax and Public Finance - This paper studies the role of the tax on mobile capital in labor markets with matching frictions and the effects of such frictions on inefficiency of capital...     

Labor Rights,Venture Capital,and Firm Performance

We investigate the role of labor unions in the performance of venture capital (VC)‐backed firms. Using a large sample of initial public offering firms from 1983 to 2013, we find that VC‐backed firms in highly unionized industries have lower Tobin's Q and are less likely to survive. This effect is robust to endogeneity concerns and to controlling for industry and firm characteristics. The findings suggest that strong labor rights impede innovative firms’ performance and survival, thereby adversely affecting innovation, economic growth, and employment.     

Conglomerate Investment,Skewness, and the CEO Long‐Shot Bias

Do behavioral biases of executives matter for corporate investment decisions? Using segment‐level capital allocation in multisegment firms (“conglomerates”) as a laboratory, we show that capital expenditure is increasing in the expected skewness of segment returns. Conglomerates invest more in high‐skewness segments than matched stand‐alone firms, and trade at a discount, which indicates overinvestment that is detrimental to shareholder wealth. Using geographical variation in gambling norms, we find that the skewness‐investment relation is particularly pronounced when CEOs are likely to find long shots attractive. Our findings suggest that CEOs allocate capital with a long‐shot bias.     

Labor market search, the Taylor principle, and indeterminacy

In a sticky-price model with labor market search and matching frictions, forecast-based interest rate policy almost always induces indeterminacy when it is strictly inflation targeting and satisfies the Taylor principle. Indeterminacy is due to a vacancy channel of monetary policy that makes inflation expectations self-fulfilling. The effect of this channel strengthens as the sluggishness of the adjustment of employment relative to that of consumption increases. When this relative sluggishness is high, the Taylor principle fails to ensure determinacy, regardless of whether the policy is forecast-based or outcome-based, whether it is strictly or flexibly inflation targeting, or contains policy rate smoothing.