行业属性对劳动报酬的边际效应及其细部特征——基于分位数回归模型的实证研究

目前学术界普遍使用的基于最小二乘法的传统线性回归方法不但不能分析行业属性对劳动报酬边际效应的细部特征,而且行业劳动报酬分布具有的非正态分布特征还会严重影响模型的估计结果,误导分析结论,而现代计量经济学中的分位数回归模型可以有效地解决上述问题.文章使用分位数回归模型方法对影响劳动报酬的行业属性变量进行了选择,测算了有关行业属性变量在不同部门、不同分位点上对劳动报酬的边际效应,分析了边际效应的细部特征与变化规律.     

劳动力工作转换对收入影响效应的实证研究

采用中国健康与营养调查(CHNS)数据通过构造相应的计量回归模型,分别采用普通最小二乘法和分位数回归法对工作转换对劳动者收入的影响效应进行实证研究,并基于研究结论提出对于劳动者个人、高校就业指导和宏观政策方面的启示。     

同时考顾异方差及自相关的一般化最小二乘法

在经济计量学的回归分析中,我们常常以最小二乘法做为参数估计的工具,而最小二乘法之所以被人们重视,一方面是因为它简便易算,另一方面在一般线性回归模型中,利用最小二乘法可以求得最佳线性无偏估计式(BLUE)。最小二乘法由于条件不同,可分为普通最小二乘法(OLS)及一般化最小乘法(GLS),两者在使用中虽然条件各异,但也有联系,要了解一般化最小二乘法,首先得掌握普通最小二乘法,现分述如下:     

我国沿海渔业经济增长方式转变与发展建议实证研究

为分析当前我国渔业生产的现状及特点,文章通过运用广义最小二乘法和分位数回归法对我国沿海地区渔业经济增长方式进行了研究。研究的结果表明,当前我国渔业生产中存在着劳动力过剩以及投资效率低下的问题,自然资源对渔业生产的影响呈现出递减的变化,先进的生产工具和技术进步对于渔业经济发展具有长期的推动作用。     

基于偏最小二乘回归分析法的汽车4S店客户满意度研究

客户满意度（CSI）始终是汽车销售企业最为关注的管理指标之一。采用偏最小二乘法回归分析的方法,可以就目前顾客满意度多项指标建立数学分析模型,从而建立良好的顾客满意度指数测评体系。通过该测评体系,汽车4S店可以回归分析和计算相关因数,得到顾客满意度相关指标的提升建议,进而优化和改进相关服务。     

OLS与PLS方法在顾客满意度建模中的模拟比较

使用蒙特卡罗方法 ,对比研究了使用普通最小二乘法和偏最小二乘法 ,进行顾客满意度多元线性建模的效果。模拟结果表明 ,采用偏最小二乘法在样本量不足 ,设计阵存在多重共线性时能够获得更好的建模可靠性 ,而样本数据的右偏斜分布对这两种方法均不产生显著的危害     

市场机制对中国人均能源消费调节作用的实证研究

目前研究中国能源问题大多集中在能源消费总量上，而常常忽视了入均能源消费量的问题。通过地图显示，可以初步判断中国人均能源消费主要与两个因素有关：经济因素和能源资源禀赋因素。通过加权最小二乘（WLS）基准模型发现，经济发展水平、能源资源禀赋、第二产业和第三产业比重与人均能源消费成正比关系；市场机制调节作用下的能源价格抑制了人均能源消耗。然后运用分位数回归方法，结果发现：经济欠发达地区、沿海能源资源匮乏地区；第二产业比重较低的地区的弹性系数较高；在25％-80％分位数段内，第三产业比重的弹性系数基本相同；虽然市场化通过能源价格起到了调节人均能源消费量的作用，但分位数回归的结果显示能源价格仍然是扭曲的。     

基于偏最小二乘回归的地区产业投资与GDP关系分析——以攀枝花为例

“十二五”国民经济与社会发展规划期即将到来,对于经济运行情况的分析、研究以及统筹安排是各级政府部门、科研院所及组织所极其关注的。本文在分析了最小二乘回归、主成分回归、岭回归以及偏最小二乘回归等方法的适用条件和优缺点基础上,认为偏最小二乘回归分析（PLS）不仅能有效解决变量间的多重相关性问题,并且适合在样本容量小于变量个数的情况下进行回归建模。然后,在证实了攀枝花市三次产业投资于产业产出之间存在严重的多重相关性基础上,对其关系进行了偏最小二乘分析,发现在攀枝花市对第一、第二产业的投资几乎不能带来地区生产总值的增长,而对第三产业的投资所带来的各产业产值增长明显,并提出攀枝花市未来应按照以服务业发展为基础,工业发展为重点,农业发展为补充的经济发展格局来发展,才能够实现最优投资效果。     

多元线性回归最小二乘法及其经济分析

多元线性回归分析是计量经济学所研究的重要内容 ,而回归分析的一个重要手段是最小二乘法。现有的文献并没有给出一般线性回归问题的最小二乘解法 ,更没有给出便于计算机实现的算法 ,对于多元线性回归中各变量因素对回归函数的影响没有进行一般的分析。文章首先给出一般线性回归最小二乘解法 ,然后给出便于计算机实现的算法 ,最后分析多元线性回归中各变量因素对回归函数的影响     

优于最小二乘的GPS网空间坐标系转换抗差方法分析

本文结合实例，将抗差估计与最小二乘估计在GPS网空间坐标系间转换参数求解应用进行分析比较，结果表明当转换基准点存在不稳定点时，采用抗差估计法能有效剔除粗差，其计算结果精度明显高于最小二乘估计法。     

Semiparametric EGARCH model with the case study of China stock market

In this paper, we propose a new semiparametric method for GARCH model by combining the EGARCH (1,1) model and local polynomial regression. Based on the idea of two-stage estimate, a link function is estimated by the local polynomial and then the parameters are obtained via the weighted least square method. Finally we apply this method to the Shanghai Composite Index in the China stock market and compared the results with these of EGARCH.     

全球失衡问题的资产组合方法——对美国的分析及对中国的启示

基于国际收支货币分析理论的资产组合方法是研究全球失衡问题的一个新视角.这一方法关注一国净外部资产头寸的累积及其可持续性,理解和评估外部失衡的关键是净外部资产变动过程中的价值效应.用该方法对美国外部失衡所做的研究能够得到较为乐观的结论.我国持续贸易顺差并没有带来相应程度的财富累积,我国外部头寸的价值效应为负.我国对贸易顺差进行调整时必须考虑外部头寸价值变动所产生的平衡效应.同时,我国应适当调整外部头寸结构以降低外部财富损失的风险并积极参与东亚金融合作以抵御风险.     

Regulators Markets And Standards Coordination: Policy Lessons From Telepoint

Using quarterly data for 56 new ethical-drug products launched between 1989 and 1996, we estimate the coefficients of a regression equation that has cumulative future sales beyond the forecast period as its dependent variable and third-quarter sales, post-launch product improvements and promotional activities, pre-launch product quality and speed to market, and market growth as the independent variables. We find the future success of a new product to be detectable as early as the third quarter after launch, and that while post-launch promotional activities can contribute to that success, if the product has not shown signs of life by the third quarter it is unlikely to do so afterwards. The implication is that being first to the market can contribute to the success of a new drug, as can having the highest-quality drug, though neither being first nor being best is necessary. Rather, a new drug can be both the first and the best in its product category, but if strong signs of success do not appear within nine months after launch, the drug is likely to be fighting a losing uphill battle thereafter, even in a growing market. Or, at least in pharmaceuticals, you get only one bite at the cherry.     

Leaders and windshields: the art of deflecting essential information

Do you know how much information you deflect in a day? Do you know what techniques you use to keep information at bay? We all erect windshields. It is just a matter of degree. Sometimes we deflect information in spite of our good intentions. If we are not present when people are in dialogue with us, we soon lose the attention of that person. If we are leading a meeting and the feedback begins to get uncomfortable for us, we can interject the techniques of the alpha male or alpha female, or a variety of our own. But the audience knows you are not listening, and they soon go underground with their comments and interpretations. Soon you are cut out of valuable feedback. Deflecting information by surrounding yourself with windshields just won't work. We need second and third opinions continually. One of Warren Bennis' (2002) ten traits to becoming a "tomorrow leader" is that of ensuring that the leader's boundaries are porous and permeable. In his view, leaders need the foresight to see around the corner long before others do. His belief is that the only way to do this is to be in touch with your customers, and the outside world. But that only happens when the leader's boundaries are porous and permeable so that information can seep in. Effective leaders learn to lead without windshields.     

Impact of remittances on household health care expenditure: Evidence from the Nepal Living Standards Survey

This paper examines the effect of remittance inflows on health care expenditure in Nepal using the Nepal Living Standards Survey 2010–2011. Using the recursive three‐stage least square regression method, the propensity score matching method, and the Oaxaca–Blinder decomposition method, we find a positive and significant effect of remittances on health care expenditure. In particular, our analysis shows a 0.099% increase in health care expenditure for every 1% increase in overall remittances. This effect increases to 0.189% for earned remittances (remittances received from a household member). We also find that remittance‐receiving households with at least one migrant family member have different health care spending behavior than those with no migrant members.     

互联网使用与工资收入差距*——基于CHNS数据的经验分析

基于2004—2011年的中国营养与健康调查数据（CHNS）,本文使用最小二乘法和控制自选择偏差的倾向性得分匹配法详细估计了互联网使用对工资收入的影响。结果表明,互联网使用对个体工资收入有积极的影响,尤其对于拥有高中学历的个体而言,这种影响更大。本文进一步使用基于RIF回归的FFL分解方法考察了互联网使用对工资不平等的影响。本文发现,2004—2011年间互联网使用比例的增加降低了整体工资不平等,且使用过互联网的高中学历人员比例增加有助于降低高工资与中等工资收入人群的工资差距。同时,互联网使用收益率的下降也有助于降低工资不平等,尤其有助于降低高工资与中等工资收入人群之间的工资差距。因此,普及互联网使用,尤其是提高低收入群体的互联网使用比例和普及该群体的高中阶段教育对于抑制不平等的扩大有重要的意义。     

基于云模型的供电企业人力资源风险评价

为了掌控供电企业现存的人力资源风险状况,及时规避人力资源风险。本文建立了符合供电企业人力资源特点的人力资源风险评价指标体系。通过层次分析法和线性加权法确定人力资源得分。在对人力资源风险等级划分中,引入云模型。该模型摒弃了以往研究的硬划分,更能体现数据的分布特性。然后对评价对象进行逆向正态云化来获得其云参数,最后利用该云参数进行评价。通过实例证明,该模型能够挖掘出更多隐含的信息,具有可行性和有效性。     

Economic,psychological, and sociological determinants of voluntary turnover

Economists, psychologists, and sociologists have all contributed to the understanding of voluntary labor turnover. We argue for an integrated explanatory model which incorporates variables from each perspective. Such a model is presented and then estimated. Data from a cohort of 135 recently hired registered nurses employed by a university hospital are analyzed to assess the effects of the various explanatory variables on turnover during one year of employment. Turnover is measured by organization records for 12 months following the administration of the questionnaire designed to measure the independent variables. The integrated model portrays the work conditions, environmental conditions, and employee characteristics as primarily affecting turnover by impacting on the intervening variables of job satisfaction, organizational commitment and intent to stay. Ordinary least square (OLS) regression and logistic regression are used in the analysis. The data indicate support for sociological, economic, and psychological determinants of voluntary turnover. These findings are discussed from the perspective of Etzioni's claims about the importance of the moral dimension for explaining economic behavior such as turnover.     

A New Economy Forecasting Method Based on Data Barycentre Forecasting Method

A new and useful method of technology economics, parameter estimation method, was presented in light of the stability of gravity center of object in this paper. This method could deal with the fitting and forecasting of economy volume and could greatly decrease the errors of the fitting and forecasting results. Moreover, the strict hypothetical conditions in least squares method were not necessary in the method presented in this paper, which overcame the shortcomings of least squares method and expanded the application of data barycentre method. Application to the steel consumption volume forecasting was presented in this paper. It was shown that the result of fitting and forecasting was satisfactory. From the comparison between data barycentre forecasting method and least squares method, we could conclude that the fitting and forecasting results using data barycentre method were more stable than those of using least squares regression forecasting method, and the computation of data barycentre forecasting method was simpler than that of least squares method. As a result, the data barycentre method was convenient to use in technical economy.     

INSTITUTIONAL STRUCTURE IN THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF PROTECTION: LEGISLATED V. ADMINISTERED PROTECTION

In endogenous tariff theory the outcome of the political process (the tariff) is a strictly private good from the perspective of the specific-factors in an industry. That is, the benefits from participation in the political process are fully captured by the participant group. We argue that this is an institutional assumption by showing that an alternative, administered protection, involves the enforcement of a rule that, once written, is applied to all industry groups, where applicable. Attempts to increase protection therefore result in benefits to all import competing industry groups. In a short-run neo-classical model of trade with no intermediate goods, you therefore get a political free rider problem that you do not get with legislated tariffs. Further, it is argued that the distinction between these forms of protection is of both empirical and philosophical relevance.