Is There a Bank-Lending Channel of Monetary Policy in New Zealand?

The results reported in the paper cast serious doubt on the existence of a potent bank-lending channel of monetary policy in New Zealand either before or after the reforms of the mid-1980s. We find no sound evidence of a link between a number of different finance mix variables and economic activity in New Zealand. Similar, unfavourable results are reported by the investigation of the connection between movements in an interest rate spread and real economic performance. Moreover, neither the finance mix variables nor the spread respond consistently to changes in various indicators of monetary policy.     

货币政策与房地产周期性波动

基于国房景气指数的周期成分构建MS模型,分析了房地产周期的特征和货币政策对房地产周期的影响。研究表明:中国房地产市场具有非线性周期波动特征,房地产周期呈现长扩张和短收缩两种状态,并且两种状态交替出现;房地产周期不仅受到自身滞后期的影响,还受到货币政策的影响,货币政策对房地产周期的影响程度要高于房地产周期自身的影响,货币供应量的影响要高于利率的影响;不同区制状态下,货币供应量和利率对房地产周期的影响存在非对称性。因此货币当局要根据房地产周期的区制状态,有针对性地选用货币政策工具进行调控以实现房地产市场的稳定发展。     

How Monetary Policy can have Permanent Real Effects with Only Temporary Nominal Rigidity

A macroeconomic model is developed in which the psychological concept of loss aversion is incorporated into workers' preferences. The impact of monetary policy in the presence of loss aversion depends on the specification of the reference wage. The plausible specification that a worker's reference wage is the real wage she was paid in the previous period is considered in detail. Specifying the reference wage in this way, we show that an unanticipated change in monetary policy has a permanent, real effect when short term labour contracts are written in nominal wages.     

价格型货币政策调控中的实际利率锚

随着利率管制的基本放开,货币政策亟需由传统数量调控向以利率为主的价格调控模式转型。作为价格型货币政策调控的实际利率锚,自然利率将为中央银行政策利率的制定提供重要依据。本文以新凯恩斯一般均衡模型为基础,从自然利率的三层含义出发,构建状态空间模型,对中国的自然利率进行估算。结果显示,我国自然利率在一定程度上可作为经济增长的先行指标,为解释和预测经济运行态势提供依据,利率缺口不仅是经济波动的"指示器",而且可以为货币政策的制定和评价提供重要依据,这对新常态下的货币政策转型和宏观调控具有重要的参考意义。     

Monetary Policy, Corporate Financial Composition and Real Activity

This article addresses two fundamental questions about monetarypolicy, credit conditions and corporate activity. First, canwe relate differences in the composition of debt between tightand loose periods of monetary policy to firm characteristicslike size, age, indebtedness or risk? Second, do differencesin companies’ financial compositions matter for real activityof firms such as inventory and employment growth? The articleoffers some evidence from firms in the UK manufacturing sectorwhich suggests that the composition of debt differs considerablywith characteristics such as size, age, debt and risk, it alsoshows a significant effect from financial composition and cashflow to inventory and employment growth. (JEL codes: E32, E44,E51)     

货币政策与财政政策的“新共识”

20世纪90年代以来,宏观经济政策领域出现了一种"新共识",近年来得到进一步发展。在"新共识"宏观经济模型中,货币存量不起作用,但货币政策被赋予非常重要的作用,货币政策可以决定通货膨胀;货币政策采用盯住通货膨胀的方式,通过调节利率将通货膨胀控制在一个较低的水平。财政政策在管理总需求水平方面仍然是一个强有力的工具,"新共识"宏观经济学体现了"货币主义与财政主义的综合"。     

货币政策对房地产市场冲击效力的动态测度

以货币政策传导渠道为理论依据,通过结构向量自回归(SVAR)模型构造货币政策对房地产市场的作用途径,可测度各种货币政策工具冲击对我国房地产市场供求的相对强度.实证分析结果表明,利率政策的冲击效力明显且持久,是调控房地产市场最有效的货币政策工具;紧缩的信贷政策仅能在短期内抑制房地产市场需求,长期效果欠佳;而货币供给量冲击对房地产市场的影响并不显著.相对于房地产需求,房地产市场供给对各种货币政策工具冲击的响应深度高,但响应速度较慢.     

货币政策、实体经济与股票价格波动

文章首先从虚拟资本的角度,就货币供求变化对股票价格的影响进行了理论分析,接着对货币政策、实体经济与股票价格波动的相互作用进行了理论分析,最后就股市货币资金的流动对股票价格波动的影响进行了实证分析。结论是货币政策、实体经济与股票价格波动之间存在着复杂的相互作用关系。因此货币政策的制订及实施应适当关注股票价格波动,而完善证券市场的监管应与货币政策的制订及实施相衔接。     

货币政策、过度投资与房地产企业风险承担

以2003—2013年中国房地产上市公司为研究样本,借鉴Richardson的过度投资模型,对房地产企业的过度投资行为进行度量,实证检验了房地产上市公司是否存在过度投资、中国的货币政策对房地产上市公司过度投资的影响以及中国房地产上市公司的过度投资与其风险承担的关系。研究结果显示:中国房地产上市公司存在过度投资行为,紧缩的货币政策能抑制其过度投资,而宽松的货币政策会助长其过度投资;在经济繁荣期,房地产企业的过度投资对其风险承担的影响不显著;在经济衰退期,过度投资会使其风险承担水平显著提升,此时推出宽松的货币政策会使房地产企业的风险承担水平进一步提升。     

货币冲击、房地产收益波动与最优货币政策选择

与传统资产定价模型中风险收益权衡关系相悖,我国房地产市场存在投资异象和波动长记忆性特征。文章利用泰勒规则(Taylor Rule)的利率缺口,在剔除市场预期之后测度了中国市场的货币政策冲击,并基于房地产投资回报的时序数据波动聚集性和时变性特征构建GARCH(1,1)-M模型,以此度量我国房地产市场投资收益的波动演变路径,解释了央行实施加息的货币政策后当期房价反而上涨的投资现象。文章还立足于房地产市场参与人的投资特征,从行为金融学的全新研究视角出发,建立包含行为资产定价的动态模型经济系统,研究资产价格波动与最优货币政策选择问题,求得相应闭型解,为实施关注资产价格波动的最优货币政策提供理论基础。     

货币政策在房地产调控中的不确定性

2007年货币政策调控力度之大前所未有,然而房地产业却呈现了少有的"四高"现象.本文从影响房价的供给与需求入手,探究货币政策在房地产调控的效应.既然旺盛住房需求发端于实体经济,货币政策并不是唯一的或决定的因素,坚持货币政策与土地、税收政策的协调,坚持短期应急措施与长远的住房保障、政策性金融体制建设的协调,才能营造使调控发挥效应的机制.     

关税、货币政策与中国实际均衡汇率

加入WTO后 ,降低进口品关税等措施将影响人民币均衡汇率水平 ,同时开放经济下国内货币政策、财政政策等宏观经济政策调整也会改变均衡汇率水平。本文运用动态一般均衡的方法 ,探讨中国在加入世界贸易组织之后 ,关税税率调整、货币供应量增长率改变、财政政策调整等措施对实际均衡汇率的长期效应。把货币引入生产函数和消费者的效用函数 ,我们扩展了由Turnovsky提出的两商品资本积累模型 ,利用参数赋值(calibration)的方法进行了均衡状态下的比较静态分析。研究发现降低进口品关税使人民币面临贬值压力 ,而政府增加税收 ,减少对贸易品的消费则有利于人民币的保值和升值。实证研究结果表明 :国外实际利率水平下降 ,实际货币供应量增长率降低都将引起人民币均衡汇率贬值。     

Exploring the Role of the Real Exchange Rate in Australian Monetary Policy

An important issue in small open-economies is whether policymakers should respond to exchange rate movements when they formulate monetary policy. Micro-founded models tend to suggest that there is little to be gained from responding to exchange rate movements, and the literature has largely concluded that such a response is unnecessary, or even undesirable. This paper examines this issue using an estimated model of the Australian economy. In contrast to microfounded models, according to this model policymakers should allow for movements in the real exchange rate and the terms-of-trade when they set interest rates. Further, taking real exchange rate movements into account appears even more important with price level targeting than with inflation targeting.     

Stabilization Effects of Narrative-based Monetary Policy in Jamaica

The study constructs a monetary policy indicator (MPI) from monetary policy documents and the actions of the Bank of Jamaica and Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning, and uses it to estimate four variants of an analytical narrative-vector error correction model (AN-VECM) with cointegration as the identifying restriction. In AN-VECMs 1 and 2, the cointegration is estimated in level form with respective short-term interest rate and the MPI as regressands. The first difference forms of respective models are re-estimated in AN-VECMs 3 and 4. The results are mixed, with AN-VECM 1 yielding the least results. However, in all cases, the impulse response functions indicate that the MPI yields slightly superior results in both AN-VECMs 2 and 4. A positive shock in the MPI produces price and exchange rate results which are consistent with a priori expectations from economic theory, and mixed liquidity effect and real output results. Thus, the MPI provides an important policy tool alternative for policymakers in small open economies to consider in the implementation of monetary policy.     

中国房地产价格对货币政策操作的意义——基于金融形势指数(FCI)的研究

在当代经济中,以房地产价格为代表的资产价格已成为影响金融稳定和实体经济稳定的重要因素。2007年8月,美国出现的“次级贷款”危机就是最近的事例。本文将房地产价格从笼统的资产价格中剥离出来,纳入FCI指数,并基于FCI指数研究房地产价格对中央银行货币政策操作所具有的信息内涵。     

我国货币政策目标新论

文章通过探讨通货膨胀定标的货币政策框架,分析其在我国实行的必要性与可行性,以提高我国货币政策的有效性缓解流动性过剩。     

货币政策对房地产价格的动态影响研究——基于VAR模型的实证

货币政策对房地产价格的影响是一个长期动态过程,货币供应量与利率水平的变化冲击会对房地产价格产生长远影响.本文通过建立VAR模型,运用脉冲响应函数与方差分解的方法研究了货币供应量与利率变化冲击对中国房地产价格的动态影响.分析结果表明,货币供应量变化对房地产价格有长期的持续正向影响,货币供应量的增加会导致房地产价格上涨;利率变化对房地产价格有负向影响,但在长期其动态影响逐渐减弱,并最终回归到原点;货币供应量变化对房地产价格变化的贡献率大于利率变化对房地产价格变化的贡献率,且前者呈加速上升趋势,而后者则逐渐减小.