长期贫困、发展干扰与城乡居民健康

本文基于中国健康与养老追踪调查数据(CHARLS 2013,2014)研究发现:贫困经历在整个生命历程中对健康都有持续的负面影响,而长期贫困对健康的影响还存在纵向的暴露时间累积效应。本文通过控制初始健康禀赋、生命历程因素和原生家庭特征等变量的回归分析表明:0～17岁有挨饿经历会显著降低成年后的健康状况;伴随挨饿时间的延长,抑郁情绪会明显上升,但只有超过12年的贫困状态才会对日常生活活动能力产生负面影响。贫困的发展干扰效应是解释长期贫困影响健康的重要机制,早年长期经历贫困会减少人们受教育和职业地位获得的机会,进而降低成年后的健康福利水平;长期贫困会导致子女的社会经济地位偏低,进而影响老年时医疗服务资源的可获得性。因此,可利用早年贫困经历对健康的影响效应及其发展干扰的渠道变量,对健康中国战略和脱贫攻坚实施精准施策。     

美国中心城区贫困起因的八种假设

40多年来,美国中心城区的贫困问题一直在困扰着公共政策的制定.对于城市贫困的起因,理论界先后进行了卷帙浩繁的解释,并以之作为公共决策的基础.本文根据八种可能造成中心城区贫困的假设,即产业转型、人力资本匮乏、种族与性别歧视、不良的文化和行为、种族隔离、移民、内生增长不足以及公共政策的负面影响等,对既往解释进行了评述.本文认为,所有这些解释都与城市贫困相关,但其重要性及影响程度却并不相同.     

员工的创新自我效能感对创新行为的影响

基于社会认知理论,将创新内生动机作为中介变量,将组织自尊作为调节变量,建立了员工创新自我效能感对其创新行为影响的概念模型。利用调研数据验证研究假设。研究结论如下:员工的创新自我效能感对其创新行为和创新内生动机有显著的正向影响;创新内生动机在员工的创新自我效能感与创新行为间起部分中介作用;组织自尊对员工的创新内生动机与创新行为的关系起负向调节作用。     

数字金融、市场参与和农户相对贫困

市场参与机会和能力的提升是缓解相对贫困的持久性内生动力,数字金融通过影响贫困群体心理从而缓解相对贫困的微观机制尚未得到有效验证.基于贫困心理和行为的理论,运用中国家庭追踪调查2014-2018年的数据,采取反事实分析和工具变量两阶段最小二乘法等多种方法验证数字金融对农户相对贫困的影响,并进一步利用中介效应来检验市场参与行为的作用机制,研究发现:第一,数字金融的使用缓解了农户的相对贫困,且数字金融缓解农户相对贫困具有长期、稳定的作用;第二,数字金融对收入相对较高、教育水平相对较高的农户家庭的相对贫困缓解效应更强;第三,数字金融促进了农户的市场参与行为,从而缓解了农户的相对贫困.因此,应通过促进农户市场参与发挥数字金融在缓解农户相对贫困中的有利作用,同时努力提升较低收入和较低教育水平农户的数字金融素养以弥合数字鸿沟.     

内生创新努力、吸收能力与企业创新绩效

利用浙江省338家创新型企业2008～ 2010年三年数据,实证分析了企业内生创新努力的R&D经费投入、R&D人员投入与创新绩效间的关系,引入吸收能力这一变量,研究吸收能力在内生创新努力和创新绩效间是否起到中介作用.结果发现,企业内生创新努力的R&D经费投入对企业创新绩效有显著的正向影响,且具有滞后性,但是随着时间推移影响越来越小;R&D人员投入对企业创新绩效的影响不显著,且呈现不稳定的特征;吸收能力在内生创新努力和创新绩效间起到中介作用.     

货币供给内生环境下财政对内需的影响研究

本文首先考察了我国货币供给内生的现实环境,并采用ARDL方法对我国经验数据进行实证检验,验证了我国货币供给的内生性问题,表明税收和政府投资是影响货币供给的内生性因素。在此基础上,从货币供给内生的前提出发,本文构建了扩展的内需增长模型,用SVAR方法考察了财政对我国内需增长率的影响。实证结果显示,税收和政府投资增速提高,均会对内需增长率产生负面影响。同时,本文还探讨了货币供给内生环境下财政对内需的影响机制,认为税收和政府投资会影响货币供给,通过新的影响路径对内需产生负面影响。     

论制度变迁的速率与选择

制度变迁速率与选择是由内生变量和外生变量共同决定.内生变量主要是制度变迁的性质、变迁规模、变迁强度和目标制度的类型.外生变量是由社会政治经济环境、非正式制度以及需求状况组成.两个方面共同决定制度变迁的速度及决策主体的选择.文章首先分析了制度变迁的内生因素和外生因素及速率的最佳范围和规模,其次用具体案例进行检验并得出结论.     

城镇化对农村能源贫困影响的实证研究——基于城乡相对贫困视角北大核心

基于2005—2018年省级面板数据,运用面板分位回归模型,以城乡相对贫困视角下的农村能源贫困为被解释变量,以城镇化发展水平为核心解释变量,并纳入经济发展水平、农村能源推广管理机构情况等控制变量,研究城镇化发展对农村能源贫困的影响。结果表明:(1)消费数量维度下的农村能源贫困比消费结构维度下的农村能源贫困分布范围更广且贫困程度更深;(2)城镇化发展水平与经济发展水平皆可对农村能源贫困产生负向影响,但这种负向影响具有空间异质性,随着农村能源贫困程度下降,城镇化发展水平对其的负向影响呈强化趋势,而经济发展水平对其的负向影响呈弱化趋势;(3)农村能源推广管理机构情况对农村能源贫困的影响具有明显的因素异质性,强化机构的基层结构与提升机构人员文化水平比单纯扩充农村能源推广管理机构人员数量更有利于缓解农村能源贫困。基于此,提出了缩小城乡相对贫困视角下农村能源贫困程度的政策启示。     

吉尔吉斯坦的贫困问题

地区贫困被囊括为世界性难题。吉尔吉斯坦近年来就面临这样的问题,影响到社会的稳定与发展。贫困导致了吉尔吉斯坦的一系列社会问题例如:移民人数增多,犯罪率上升,腐败加剧,环保问题突出等。解决贫困问题已成为吉尔吉斯坦面临的首要问题,否则,将可能造成地区不稳定等灾难性后果。     

居民贫困问题的理论研究

贫困与扶贫是一个世界性话题。贫困问题解决不好,必然会阻碍我国经济的发展,影响社会的稳定与和谐,因此,对当前我国贫困问题的研究也就势在必行。本文从论述贫困的涵义出发,将贫困进行分类,着重从相对贫困和城市贫困角度探讨当前我国居民贫困出现的问题,并指出贫困研究的实际意义,为我国居民扶贫提供相应的对策,实现我国经济社会的和谐发展。     

Endogenous neighborhood effects on welfare participation

This article examines the impact of neighborhood welfare participation on individual welfare participation, that is, the endogenous neighborhood effects. Endogenous neighborhood effects generate social multipliers. Few existing empirical studies on neighborhood effects distinguish between endogenous neighborhood effects and exogenous neighborhood effects, that is, the effects of neighborhood characteristics. This article constitutes an early attempt to identify and estimate endogenous and exogenous neighborhood effects separately. I construct an instrumental variable for neighborhood welfare participation rate based on the variation in welfare benefits and neighborhood demographic composition to address the reflection problem and the omitted neighborhood variables problem. A two-step method is proposed to separately estimate endogenous and exogenous neighborhood effects. The results show that neighborhood welfare participation plays an important role in a woman’s welfare participation both before and after the welfare reform in 1996.     

The effect of women's schooling on fertility

A researcher examined the effect of women's schooling on fertility, paying particular attention to whether women's schooling is an exogenous determinant of fertility. The analyzed data were from the US National Opinion Research Center's General Social Survey for the years 1985-91. This survey is a random sample of 1500 English-speaking people, at least 18 years old, who live in noninstitutional settings. Estimates were made of children ever born to women aged 35-44 and 45=54 using ordinary least squares and two-stage least squares (with the latter including the schooling of the respondent's parents as variables). Other variables used besides schooling were age, being Black, region at age 16 (relative to the south), type of residence at age 16 (relative to cities of 250,000). being Catholic, being Mormon, and survey year. Using the Hausman test to regress the variable of schooling on the exogenous variables results in a residual, and a t-test on the coefficient for the residual will test for endogeneity. In each group of women, the t-statistic on the residual was 1.1, suggesting that schooling is not highly endogenous with fertility. Schooling does, however, have a highly negative effect on fertility in both estimates. A 10% increase in schooling is associated with a 10-12% decline in fertility for women aged 35-44 and with a 7-10% decline for women aged 45-54. Therefore, schooling can be used as an independent variable without leading to false acceptance of socioeconomic theories of fertility. Schooling may reduce fertility by increasing a woman's income, thus making child rearing more expensive, or by enhancing a woman's ability to control fertility.     

The role of constitutions on poverty: A cross-national investigation

We construct and use a new historical data set on economics and social rights from the constitutions of 195 countries and an instrument variable strategy to answer two important questions. First, do economic and social rights provisions in constitutions reduce poverty, measured as headcount income and health outcomes? Second, does the strength of constitutional language of the economic and social rights matter? Constitutional provisions can be framed either more weakly as directive principles or more strongly as enforceable law. Our results suggest three findings. First, we do not find an association between constitutional rights generally framed and poverty. Second, we do not find an association between economic and social rights framed as directive principles and poverty. Third, we do find a strong negative association between economic and social rights framed as enforceable law and poverty when we use legal origins as our IV. These results persist for indices of constitutional rights and also when we restrict the sample to non-OECD countries. The policy implication is that constitutional provisions framed as enforceable law provide effective meta-rules with incentives for policymakers to initiate, fund, monitor and enforce poverty reduction policies.     

The Making of Pro‐Poor Growth

A system of three endogenous equations is used to estimate the determinants of poverty dynamics. The system incorporates: (i) the direct effect of growth and income inequality on poverty, (ii) the feedback effect of poverty on inequality and growth, and (iii) different channels through which economic policies can contribute to poverty reduction. Results suggest that countries tend to move towards one of two possible equilibria. The positive (virtuous) equilibrium is characterized by fast growth, decreasing inequality, and rapid poverty reduction. The negative (vicious) equilibrium involves slow (or even negative) growth, sharpening inequalities, and resilient poverty. The policy mix is critical in determining to which of the two equilibria a country converges.     

ENDOGENOUS TIMING AND STRATEGIC CHOICE: THE COURNOT‐BERTRAND MODEL

Cournot establishes a Nash equilibrium to a duopoly game under output competition; Bertrand finds a different Nash equilibrium under price competition. Both treat the strategic choice variable (output versus price) and the timing of play as exogenous. We investigate Cournot‐Bertrand models where one firm competes in output and the other competes in price in both static and dynamic settings. We also develop a general model where both the timing of play and the strategic choice variables are endogenous. Consistent with the conduct of Honda and Scion, we show that Cournot‐Bertrand behaviour can be a Nash equilibrium outcome.     

Monetary policy design in the european union: Problems and possibilities

The main goal of this paper is to estimate if the money supply and interest rate in the various European Union countries are exogenous or endogenous. This analysis turns is essential since, if both variables happened to be endogenous, the search for another variable to be used as a proximate target could be tried. Some authors have suggested that the exchange rate is likely to be that variable.     

Human capital distribution, growth and convergence

This paper studies the dynamic relationship between distribution and endogenous growth in an overlapping generations model with accumulation of human and physical capital. It is shown how human capital can determine a relationship between per capita growth rates and inequality in the distribution of income. Family background effects and spillovers in the transmission of human capital generate dynamics in which aggregate variables depend not only on the stock, but also on the distribution of human capital. The evolution of this distribution over time is then characterized under different assumptions on private returns and the form of the externality in the technology for human capital. Conditions for existence, uniqueness and stability of a constant growth equilibrium with a stationary distribution are derived. Increasing returns, idiosyncratic abilities and the possibility of poverty traps are explicitely characterized in a closed form solution of the equilibrium dynamics, showing the role played by technology and preferences parameters.     

Is International Trade Relevant to Social Trust Formation? Evidence from Cross-country Analysis

In this paper, we investigate whether international trade itself can contribute to the level of generalized trust. We extend the existing empirical research in several ways. First, we use a larger sample size, we test and reject the treatment of international trade as an exogenous variable, and we address trade endogeneity using instrumental variables estimators. Second, we use geographical variables and international trade prices to instrument for international trade. Third, we perform instrumental variables diagnostics tests to determine the suitability and relevance of our instruments; we also perform tests of the statistical significance of our parameter of interest that are robust to the presence of weak instruments. Our empirical analysis suggests that international trade does have a significant and relatively large positive effect on social trust and reconfirms the role played by other variables like income inequality in the formation of trust found in the literature.     

Crowding-in and crowding-out effects of public investments in the Portuguese economy

This study analyses the effects of public and private investment on Portuguese GDP in the period 1960–2013. After a review of the literature based on works developed in the context of VAR analyses, an alternative econometric strategy is proposed. We opt for ADL models using the methodology of Krolzig-Hendry-Doornik. We estimate direct effects of public and private investments on themselves and also a system of simultaneous equations and calculate the multipliers of the exogenous variables, represented by the current external transfers, the short-run nominal interest rate and public debt ratio. Additionally, we tested a model with the first three equations of the system, using beyond those variables the real exchange rate as an exogenous variable. The results point to the existence of a complementarity between private investment and public investment rather than any idea of substitutability. We find that public debt has important negative effects on public and private investments and consequently on output. Public investment has positive effects on output and on private investment. The appreciation of the real exchange rate has an important and long-lasting negative effect upon output, confirming the presence of a mechanism associated with a Dutch-disease phenomenon in the Portuguese economy.     

经济增长、产业结构与农村减贫——基于省际面板数据的实证分析

在经济增长与减贫关系问题上,大量的实证研究仅仅用经济增长以及伴随增长过程的收入分配状态作为解释变量,其结论与现实的契合性不够稳定。通过在计量模型中加入产业结构、农业生产条件、农业扶贫与发展政策等关键性的中间变量,并采用跨越"八七扶贫攻坚"期间和新世纪"农村扶贫开发"两个发展时期的省际面板数据,实证分析表明经济增长在农村减贫中具有重要地位,城乡收入差距扩大对农村减贫具有显著的负效应。与现有的大量实证研究结论不同,本研究表明不同产业在经济发展的不同阶段对农村减贫的影响是不同的,三次产业发展对农村贫困的影响发生了一定程度的逆转。因此,新时期反贫困战略也应做出相应的调整。