THE REGULATION OF MIGRATION IN A TRANSITION ECONOMY: CHINA'S HUKOU SYSTEM

Unlike most countries, China regulates internal migration. Access to public schools, health services, low‐cost housing, and attractive jobs by those who do not have local registration (Hukou) is often limited. Coincident with the deepening of economic reforms, Hukou has gradually been relaxed since the 1980s, contributing to a migration surge. In this study of interprovincial Chinese migration, we address two questions. First, what is a sensible way of incorporating Hukou into theoretical and empirical models of migration in China? Second, to what extent has Hukou influenced the scale and structure of migration? We incorporate two different measures of Hukou into a modified gravity model nuanced to fit the Chinese case: (1) the migrant's perceived probability of securing Hukou and (2) the perceived joint probability of securing Hukou and a job available only to a registered person. Our tests include a much wider variety of controls especially important for the Chinese case. Using census data for 1985–90, 1995–2000, and 2000–05, we find that migration is very sensitive to Hukou, with the greatest sensitivity occurring during the middle period. (JEL J61)     

中国省际居民迁移与地方公共支出——基于引力模型的经验研究

文章运用居民迁移的引力模型对我国省级居民迁移与地方公共支出的相关性进行了实证研究.通过对1990年以来的人口普查和抽样调查面板数据的回归分析发现:地方公共支出差异在2000年之前的居民迁移中作用不显著,而在2000年、2005年的迁移中有显著影响.对于迁入地、迁出地地方公共支出,2000年之前的迁移主要受迁入地的拉力作用,而在2000年之后则主要受迁出地的推力作用.     

The Intergenerational Effects of Paternal Migration on Schooling and Work: What Can We Learn from Children's Time Allocations?

This paper explores the short-run effects of a father's U.S. migration on his children's schooling and work outcomes in Mexico. To get around the endogeneity of paternal migration, I use individual fixed effects and instrumental variables estimation (FEIV) where the instrumental variables are based on U.S. city-level employment statistics in two industries popular with Mexican immigrants. Overall, the estimates suggest that in the short-run, children reduce study hours and increase work hours in response to a father's U.S. migration. Decomposing the sample into sex- and age-specific groups suggests that this is mainly driven by the effects of paternal migration on 12-15 year-old boys. These results are consistent with a story in which the immediate aftermath of a father's migration is one of financial hardship that is borne in part by relatively young children.     

Purchasing Power Parity: A Time Series Analysis of the U.S. and Mexico, 1995–2007

This paper presents indirect evidence that absolute purchasing power parity (PPP) may hold in the long-run between Mexico and the U.S., but due to data limitations, the relationship could not be tested directly. Thus it is not clear if absolute PPP holds in the long run between the U.S. and Mexico. Given that relative PPP is a necessary, but not sufficient, condition for absolute PPP to hold, this study tests the relationship between the change in the log of the exchange rate, and the changes in the log of the U.S. producer price index (PPI) and the Mexican PPI. Here, the absence of relative PPP would indicate that absolute PPP could not hold. Given that all the relevant variables in first difference log are stationary, PPP in its relative form holds and OLS can be applied directly in a VAR model setting, viz., treating all variables initially as potentially endogenous. The estimates indicate one-way Granger causality from the percentage change in the exchange rate to the percentage change in the Mexican price level, which is not an implausible result for an emerging nation such as Mexico which imports a significant fraction of (dollar denominated) intermediate products and capital inputs.     

Educational Attainment and Regional Economic Performance in Mexico

A growing number of studies confirm the importance of educational attainment and human capital investment as a means for improving per capita income performance. In developing countries, attention to this linkage has primarily been carried out using national data aggregates. For relatively large countries such as Mexico, it is helpful to conduct similar analyses that document regional market income patterns. This paper utilizes 2000 census data for all 31 states and the Federal District in Mexico City to quantify regional income performance. Similar to other studies conducted using regional data in higher income economies, results confirm strong links between education and incomes across Mexico.     

Border Enforcement and Selection of Mexican Immigrants in the United States

Abstract

Since 1986, the United States has made considerable efforts to curb undocumented immigration across the US–Mexico border, resulting in an increase in migration costs for undocumented immigrants from Mexico and placing a particularly heavy burden on undocumented immigrant women. Using data from the 1990, 2000 Decennial Census and the 2006–8 American Community Survey, this study finds three effects of rising migration costs for immigrants from Mexico: (1) A decrease in the relative flow of older and highly educated undocumented immigrant women relative to men; (2) An increase in the skill composition of immigrant women relative to men; and (3) An increase, due to stronger positive selection, in the average earnings of those groups most affected by increased migration costs, particularly women. This research has important implications in light of the barriers and increasing dangers that women across the globe may face when migrating.     

Exploring the causes of the slowdown in remittances to Mexico

This article explores the slowdown of remittances to Mexico and the role that may have been played by some key variables from the United States economy. The findings show that several measures of United States economic activity and different proxies for the unemployment of Mexican nationals living in the United States do not appear to have a strong impact on remittance transfers. On the other hand, this study finds that United States housing variables do seem to affect remittance transfers. In particular, there is a special prominence of the impact shown by the number of housing starts in the United States. Overall, the results seem to suggest that there is not a single United States economic factor that is responsible for the decrease of remittances to Mexico but rather a combination of factors. Among these factors, the decrease in United States housing activity seems to play a major role.     

Investment and interruption: effects of the US experience on the earnings of return migrants in Mexico

Migration is widely viewed as an investment in human capital. However, due to the imperfect transferability of skills and knowledge across countries, migration trips are also career interruptions, especially for return migrants who may meanwhile experience depreciation of home country-specific skills. This article demonstrates that migration experience increases return migrants’ earnings in the home country on the condition that the migration stay is sufficiently long and mostly uninterrupted. Employing the revised human capital earnings function, the empirical study shows that only a barely interrupted US experience longer than five years, regardless of the legal status of the migration trips, predicts higher earnings of male return migrants in Mexico than comparable non-migrants. Robust findings emerge controlling for unobserved individual \]acteristics or using instrumental variables to deal with the self-selection and endogeneity. Short migration stays in the US and frequent traveling provide return migrants no wage premium in Mexico.     

Can census data alone signal heterogeneity in the estimation of poverty maps?

Methodologies now commonly used for the construction of poverty maps assume a substantial degree of homogeneity within geographical areas in the relationship between income and its predictors. However, local labor and rental markets and other local environmental differences are likely to generate heterogeneity in such relationships, at least to some extent. The purpose of this paper is to argue that useful if only indirect and suggestive evidence on the extent of area heterogeneity is readily available in virtually any census. Such indirect evidence is provided by non-monetary indicators-such as literacy, asset ownership or access to sanitation-which are routinely included in censuses. These indicators can be used to perform validation exercises to gauge the extent of heterogeneity in their distribution conditional on predictors analogous to those commonly used in poverty mapping. We argue that the same factors which are likely to generate area heterogeneity in poverty mapping are also likely to generate heterogeneity in such kind of validation exercises. We construct a very simple model to illustrate this point formally. Finally, we evaluate empirically the argument using data from Mexico. In our empirical illustrations, the performance of imputation methodologies to construct maps of indicators typically feasible with census data alone is indeed informative about how effectively such methodologies can produce correct inference in poverty mapping.     

Some aspects of Bangalore's growth 1941-1991

"Relying on census data from 1941 to 1991, the study examines the patterns of population growth in Bangalore city [India] and its extensions. To the extent possible, data have been adjusted for boundary shifts and changes in the definition of workers. After assessing the contribution of migration to the growth of Bangalore, the paper reviews the changes that have taken place in the economic base of Bangalore. The paper notes that urban infrastructure development has not kept pace with population growth."     

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON OF PURCHASING POWER, REAL OUTPUT AND LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY: A CASE STUDY OF BRAZILIAN, MEXICAN AND U.S. MANUFACTURING, 1975

This study has a twofold objective: (a) a substantive analysis of purchasing power parities (PPP's), real output and labour productivity in Brazil, Mexico and the U.S.A.; and (b) a methodological survey of the analytic problems in measuring PPP's from the production side, rather than the expenditure approach used by the United Nations (ICP). Our main substantive findings were that PPP's for manufacturing did not vary greatly from the 1975 exchange rates, that labour productivity was surprisingly high in the two Latin American countries, and that there are substantial differences in the coverage of national accounts between Mexico and Brazil. We found census concepts of value added to be rather anachronistic, particularly in the U.S.A.; we developed a new short-cut matching procedure for industries with a complex product structure; and we found the unit value approach not inferior to the specification pricing practiced by ICP.     

Drug‐related violence and the decline in the number of Mexican cross‐border workers

This study examines how variations in homicide rates in Mexico are associated with the likelihood of participating in cross‐border work, that is, living in Mexico but working in the U.S. Based on Mexican census data from 2000, 2010, and 2015, and information on homicides, a series of ordinary least squares models are estimated to analyze the relationship between cross‐border commuting and homicide rates at the individual level. Fixed effects models are also estimated to study this relationship at the municipal level. The results show that from 2000 to 2010 the increase in homicide rates in northern border municipalities in Mexico reduced the likelihood of being a cross‐border worker, while from 2010 to 2015 the decrease in the homicide rate increased the probability that workers engage in cross‐border work. The decline in the number of cross‐border workers is likely in part a result of the escalation in drug‐related violence that may have led them to change their country of residence.     

Poverty Mapping with Aggregate Census Data: What is the Loss in Precision?

Spatially disaggregated maps of the incidence of poverty can be constructed by combining household survey data and census data. In some countries (notably China and India), national statistics agencies are reluctant, for reasons of confidentiality, to release household‐level census data, but they are generally more willing to release aggregated census data, such as village‐ or district‐level means. This paper examines the loss in precision associated with using aggregated census data instead of household‐level data to generate poverty estimates. The authors show analytically that using aggregated census data will result in poverty rates that are biased downward (upward) if the rate is below (above) 50%, and that the bias approaches zero as the poverty rate approaches zero, 50%, and 100%. Using data from Vietnam, it is found that the mean absolute error in estimating district‐level poverty rates is 2.5 percentage points if the census data are aggregated to the enumeration‐area level means, and 3–4 percentage points if the data are aggregated to commune or district level. Finally, the authors propose a method for reducing the error using variances calculated from the census. When this approach is applied to the Vietnam data, this method can cut the size of the aggregation errors by around 75%.     

The effect of NAFTA on internal migration in Mexico: a regional economic analysis

Trade facilitates growth in some regions of a country while shrinking others, and therefore to benefit from trade, labour may need to be able to migrate. This mobility is particularly crucial in a developing country with high income inequality like Mexico. We seek to answer the following questions: What characteristics facilitate or hinder that internal migration? Has trade liberalization changed the pattern of internal migration in Mexico? We first predict regional economic growth resulting from changes in Mexico-US tariffs by sector. We find that trade liberalization appears to have largely benefited the manufacturing sector. Next, using a spatial gravity model of migration, we find that while economic growth from trade openness drew workers to urban regions in the northern Border States of Mexico, much of the trade-driven migration occurred before NAFTA. Second, contrary to popular belief, migration from largely rural states appears to have decreased since NAFTA. We also find evidence that migration to the United States increased after NAFTA. Last, we find that income disparity in both the destination and origin region deters migration and that this effect increases after NAFTA. Thus, we see evidence that within-region income disparity can hinder migration, potentially exacerbating income disparity among regions.     

GENERATING INTERNATIONALLY COMPARABLE INCOME DISTRIBUTION DATA: EVIDENCE FROM THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY (1974), MEXICO (1968) AND THE UNITED KINGDOM (1979).

In this article an attempt is made to generate internationally comparable income distribution data for the Federal Republic of Germany (1974), Mexico (1968) and the United Kingdom (1979). To that end, the same income concept and income unit were adopted for each country, i.e. respectively household available income and the household. Moreover, incomes from various sources were adjusted for inconsistency with National Accounts according to Altimir's methodology. The paper finds that the distribution of persons by household income per equivalent unit is probably the best way of looking at the distribution of economic welfare. It further demonstrates that the distribution of persons by household available income per capita is much closer to this 'ideal' distribution than the distribution of households by household available income. Finally, the paper discusses some of the problems arising from the fact that one normally works with grouped data. It is found that in the case of the three countries under study, grouping is likely to have had only a small impact on the results.     

The seasonal unit root structure in New Zealand Macroeconomic variables

ADF unit root tests are generally applied to macroeconomic data prior to testing theoritical models to ensure that all relevant variables are integrated of the same order. Not only is it important to test that these variables are integrated of the same order but also that a cointegrating relationship exists; failure to do so raise the specture of false inference associated with the spurious regression problem. The seasonal nature of quarterly data adds a further proplem which has generally been overcome by seasonally adjusting the data using procedure such as the census X-11 rather than suppressing it, have attempted to determine whether the seasonal component in each variable exhibits stochastic non-stationary. This paper analysisunit roots in a seasonal setting and compares the recently developed tests for seasonal unit roots as well as the standard augmented Dickey-Fuller zerop frequency unit root tests. Of the variables tested relatively few paper to be integrated at the seasonal frequenciues and, as other studies suggest,determinstic seasonal effects are typically more important than stochastic ones.     

Urban to urban migration: Soviet patterns and post-Soviet implications

"In spite of extensive literature on migration in the Soviet Union, we know little about household-level decisions. This study specifies and estimates those variables important to understanding the migration decision. Using data from the Soviet Interview Project (SIP), we examine the forces influencing the decision to migrate or not to migrate, and in addition, for those who did migrate, the forces influencing the locational choices made. The results indicate that, while some of the traditional factors influencing migration are important, others are not, suggesting that in the post-Soviet era, differentiating the persistence of Soviet-type forces from emerging market-type forces will be important for an understanding of urban to urban migration."     

Do return migrants transfer political norms to their origin country? Evidence from Mali

This paper explores the link between return migration and political outcomes in the origin country, using the case study of Mali. We use electoral and census data at the locality level to investigate the role of return migration on participation rates and electoral competitiveness. First, we run OLS and IV estimations for the 2009 municipal election, controlling for current emigration and using historical and distance variables as instruments for return migration and current emigration. Second, we build a panel dataset combining the 1998 and 2009 censuses and the electoral results for the municipal ballots of those two years to control for the potential time-invariant unobservable characteristics of the localities. We find a positive impact of the stock of return migrants on participation rates and on electoral competitiveness, which mainly stems from returnees from non-African countries. Finally, we show that the impact of returnees on turnout goes beyond their own participation, and that they affect more electoral outcomes in areas where non-migrants are poorly educated, which we interpret as evidence of a diffusion of political norms from returnees to non-migrants.     

Homesickness and repeated migration

This paper presents a dynamic structural model of migration that is designed to help explain the migration behaviour of undocumented Mexican immigrants in the US. Its key feature – which I call ‘homesickness’ – is a duration-dependent disutility from living abroad that keeps increasing while a migrant stays abroad and can be reset to zero only by returning to their home country. I estimate the model using data primarily from the Mexican Migration Project Survey and find that the model is capable of explaining, among other things, the fact that: (i) a non-negligible number of Mexican immigrants in the US return home after earning very little; (ii) these ‘unsuccessful’ immigrants are more likely to re-enter the US at a later date; and (iii) such ‘unsuccessful’ returns are more prevalent among immigrants who left their wives behind in Mexico. These facts are not easily reconciled with existing models of migration that do not feature homesickness.     

Migration networks and microenterprises in Mexico

Are migration networks associated with lower capital costs, or the alleviation of capital constraints? We examine these questions with data measuring access to remittance flows among small-scale entrepreneurs in Mexico. Using a survey of more than 6000 self-employed workers and small firm owners located in 44 urban areas of Mexico, we estimate the impact of attachment to migration networks on the level of capital investment, the capital–output ratio, sales, and profits of microenterprises. The impact is identified from the geographic pattern of migration from Mexico driven by the completion of rail lines in the early 1900s. For the full sample of firms, we find that migration is associated with higher investment levels and higher profits, but not higher sales. The strongest effects on investment are in the categories of automobiles, tools and inventories. When the sample is limited to firms in high-capital sectors, investment, sales, and profits all increase with attachment to the migration networks, suggesting that attachment to the migration network alleviates capital constraints in those sectors.