Effect of Population Factors on China＇s Housing Market

The population factors have an important influence on the housing market. Based on forecasting the change of population quantity, family size, age composition, and population migration, this paper estimates and analyzes the future demand for residence in China and its purpose is to provide a guide for the residential construction by the supply-demand rule.     

Forecasting Housing Approvals in Australia: Do Forecasters Herd?

Price trends in housing markets may reflect herding of market participants. A natural question is whether such herding, to the extent that it occurred, reflects herding in forecasts of professional forecasters. Using more than 6,000 forecasts of housing approvals for Australia, we did not find evidence of forecaster herding. On the contrary, forecasters anti‐herd and, thereby, tend to intentionally scatter their forecasts around the consensus forecast. The extent of anti‐herding seems to vary over time. We also found that more pronounced anti‐herding leads to less accurate forecasts.     

The Rent Price of Public Housing Is Still Based on the Value of Labor Power ---Meanwhile Study on Public Housing＇ s Exit Mechanism

在对公租房的经济地位进行理论分析的基础上,指出公租房租金市场化的实质仍是土地财政,并由此提出相应的政策建议。公租房介于商品房和廉租房之间,针对有一定市场支付能力但政府或无能力或无意愿填补其缺口的中等偏下收入消费者。由于商业租赁成本超过商业购买成本,公租房租金市场化的实质是通过制造无效供给,推脱住房保障责任,维护土地财政的既得利益。将劳动力价值作为公租房租金确定的基础,才能真正发挥公租房的住房保障职能。     

Housing Acquaintance and Integration of Rural-urban Migrants＇ Family in City

住房获得对乡城移民而言不仅具有居住生活等使用价值,住房获得途径、结果的差异也具有阶层分化、身份认同等象征价值,是乡城移民家庭立足城市、实现城市融入的关键;乡城移民的家庭式迁移对城市住房问题提出了现实要求,城市住房政策需要随着乡城移民家庭城市融入的推进而不断变迁,二者相互调整和适应,才能真正推进我国的城市化进程。     

Can Anchoring and Loss Aversion Explain the Predictability of Housing Prices?

We offer an explanation of why changes in house price are predictable. We consider a housing market with loss‐averse sellers and anchoring buyers in a dynamic setting. We show that when both cognitive biases are present, changes in house prices are predicted by price dispersion and trade volume. Using a sample of housing transactions in Hong Kong from 1992 to 2006, we find that price dispersion and transaction volume are, indeed, powerful predictors of housing return. For both in and out of sample, the two variables predict as well as conventional predictors such as the real interest rate and real stock return.     

Less planning,more development? Housing and urban reform discourses in Australia

This paper examines how particular interests shape urban policy debate and reform in Australia. With a particular emphasis on proposed planning system reforms in the nation’s largest state of New South Wales, we examine written submissions from development industry sectors, resident groups, and professional associations. We then compare these submissions to government responses, finding these responses heavily reflect industry narratives. In the context of an ongoing microeconomic reform agenda oriented towards deregulation and competition policy, housing development is framed as central to delivering economic growth, while the planning system is portrayed as a constraint holding back investment and new housing production. Through this prism, a series of rhetorical strategies reframe community concerns about housing affordability and the impact of new development to fit the growth agenda, while environmental and social considerations are largely sidelined.     

Gone with the Windfall: How Do Housing Allowances Affect Student Co-residence?

Drawing on five cross-sections of the French Housing Survey,this paper examines the effects on co-residence with their parentsof the extension of housing allowances to students that tookplace between 1991 and 1993. Two effects are found. First housingallowances provide an increased opportunity for students tomove out of their parents' home. Second, the subsidy affectsnot just the decision to move out, but location and housingquality choices. Finally we suggest a model to identify howmuch of the allowance came as a windfall gain to parents. Definingthe windfall gain as being the subsidies distributed to studentswho can study locally and whose choice would have been to liveindependently without the subsidy, we find that as much as halfof the allowance came as a windfall gai to students and theirparents. (JEL H22, H23, I22, I28)     

Does a Nearby Murder Affect Housing Prices and Rents? The Case of Sydney

We measure the impact of murders on prices and rents of homes in Sydney. We find that housing prices fall by 3.9 per cent for homes within 0.2 miles of the murder in the year following the murder, and weaker results in the second year after a murder. We do not find any effects of murders on rents. Higher media coverage and being located closer to the murder (within 0.1 mile) have no additional effect on prices. Taken together, our findings suggest that proximity to a murder affects nearby property prices, particularly in the first year after the incident.     

Spatial-Temporal Changes of Housing Bubbles in China’s Major Cities: 1999 to 2012

Existing literature is characterized by certain deficiencies in measuring housing bubbles in China. By extending the analytical framework of Black et al. (2006) to a spatial panel VAR structure, this paper measures housing bubbles in China’s 35 major cities from 1999Q2 to 2012Q3 and analyzes the spatial-temporal changes of the housing bubbles in these cities. Results indicate that 1) changes to housing bubbles in most cities highly correspond with changes in the main real estate policies of the country and 2) housing bubbles in eastern developed cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, and Ningbo, have been relatively large in recent years although the average housing bubble is not very serious over the 35 major cities. Through the Kernel Density Function and local indicators of spatial autocorrelation analysis, this paper finds that housing bubbles are concentrated in several eastern developed cities. Based on empirical analysis, this paper proposes policy recommendations on inhibiting the expansion and diffusion of housing bubbles.     

A GWR-Based Study on Spatial Pattern and Structural Determinants of Shanghai＇ s Housing Price

利用上海市外环以内2010年12月1014个小区的平均房价数据,通过构建地理加权回归模型,并与基于全局最小二乘法（OLS）进行比较,揭示上海小区房价的空间分异和不同影响因子的影响。研究发现,每增加或减少一个单位各影响因子对房价的影响大小依次为：建成时间,到CBD距离,绿化率,到公园距离,距地铁站距离,距超市距离和距学校距离。同时,地理加权回归分解成局部参数估计优于OLS提供的全局参数估计,它可以深刻的揭示出房价和空间影响因子之间复杂的关系,而且可视化的工具可以用地图的形式更详细的呈现出城市房价的整体景观,这些都是传统OLS无法比拟的。     

Public Housing,School Segregation,and Children’s Education: Evidence from Hong Kong

Evidence in the literature shows that public-housing residents move less frequently than others. This tendency may restrict school choice for children from public-housing families and lead to school segregation and lower educational outcomes for those children. Our empirical findings from Hong Kong show three strands of evidence that support this hypothesis. (1) Children from public-housing families are more likely to drop out of school after compulsory education. The result is robust after controlling for family background and a series of parental characteristics. (2) Public-housing families with school-age children are less likely to move than their private-housing counterparts. (3) Children from public-housing families are more likely to study in local community schools, which are located on the outskirts of Hong Kong and are of lower education quality. These findings have important policy implications for the public-housing programs such as those which have been implemented in Mainland China since 2011.     

The Diaries of a Cabinet Minister,Volume One,Minister of Housing 1964–66

While John R. Commons often referred to third sector organizations, such as associations, cooperatives, and trade unions, it is unclear how these organizations can be fitted into his transactional typology. This paper clarifies this problem by identifying two dimensions of bargaining, managerial, and rationing transactions: 1) the extent of legal equality of transactional participants, and 2) the extent of commonness of these participants' transactional interests. These dimensions enable defining the identity of the third sector in terms of a distinct variety of rationing transactions combining legal equality of transactional participants with significant commonness of their interests. The paper further explores several implications of this argument for new institutional economics, concerning the citizenship aspect of markets and hierarchies and the possibility of viewing third sector organizations as hybrids between markets and hierarchies. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications for further research.     

Housing,consumption and monetary policy: how different are the first-, second- and third-tier cities in China?

This article presents an empirical analysis of the relationship between house prices and the real economy in China’s first-, second- and third-tier cities. A Structural Vector Autoregression model is applied to study the impacts of monetary policy shocks and housing demand shocks on various housing markets across China. We also investigate the role of house prices in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. The results reveal that in first-tier cities, raising interest rates has a stronger negative effect on house prices. Also, as house prices decrease in first-tier cities, private consumption declines sharply. There is a stronger role of housing markets in the transmission of monetary policy shocks in these cities. Our findings indicate that interest rate adjustment could effectively curb spikes in housing prices in the first-tier cities, but the impact of such adjustments on household consumption must also be considered.