Towards a consistent approach for ecosystem accounting

In spite of an increasing interest in environmental economic accounting, there is still very limited experience with the integration of ecosystem services and ecosystem capital in national accounts. This paper identifies four key methodological challenges in developing ecosystem accounts: the definition of ecosystem services in the context of accounting, their allocation to institutional sectors; the treatment of degradation and rehabilitation, and valuing ecosystem services consistent with SNA principles. We analyze the different perspectives taken on these challenges and present a number of proposals to deal with the challenges in developing ecosystem accounts. These proposals comprise several novel aspects, including (i) presenting an accounting approach that recognizes that most ecosystems are strongly influenced by people and that ecosystem services depend on natural processes as well as human ecosystem management; and, (ii) recording ecosystem services as either contributions of a private land owner or as generated by a sector ’Ecosystems’ depending on the type of ecosystem service. We also present a consistent approach for recording degradation, and for applying monetary valuation approaches in the context of accounting.     

Long-Memory,Asymmetry and Fat-Tailed GARCH Models in Value-at-Risk Estimation: Empirical Evidence from the Global Real Estate Markets

In this paper, we address the question of whether long memory, asymmetry, and fat-tails in global real estate markets volatility matter when forecasting the two most popular measures of risk in financial markets, namely Value-at-risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ESF), for both short and long trading positions. The computations of both VaR and ESF are conducted with three long memory GARCH-class models including the Fractionally Integrated GARCH (FIGARCH), Hyperbolic GARCH (HYGARCH), and Fractionally Integrated Asymmetric Power ARCH (FIAPARCH). These models are estimated under three alternative innovation’s distributions: normal, Student, and skewed Student. To test the efficacy of the forecast, we employ various backtesting methodologies. Our empirical findings show that considering for long memory, fat-tails, and asymmetry performs better in predicting a one-day-ahead VaR and ESF for both short and long trading positions. In particular, the forecasting ability analysis points out that the FIAPARCH model under skewed Student distribution turns out to improve substantially the VaR and ESF forecasts. These results may have several potential implications for the market participants, financial institutions, and the government.

     

Nash equilibrium when players account for the complexity of their forecasts

Nash equilibrium is often interpreted as a steady state in which each player holds the correct expectations about the other players' behavior and acts rationally. This paper investigates the robustness of this interpretation when there are small costs associated with complicated forecasts. The model consists of a two-person strategic game in which each player chooses a finite machine to implement a strategy in an infinitely repeated 2×2 game with discounting. I analyze the model using a solution concept called Nash Equilibrium with Stable Forecasts (ESF). My main results concern the structure of equilibrium machine pairs. They provide necessary and sufficient conditions on the form of equilibrium strategies and plays. In contrast to the “folk theorem,” these structural properties place severe restrictions on the set of equilibrium paths and payoffs. For example, only sequences of the one-shot Nash equilibrium can be generated by any ESF of the repeated game of chicken.     

新型降糖中空俄色总黄酮生物黏附缓释肛门栓的制备研究

目的探讨新型降糖中空俄色总黄酮(ESF)原位凝胶栓剂的制备工艺并建立其质量控制方法。方法采用单因素考察栓剂基质、注模温度以及ESF原位凝胶最佳注入量;对优选后制备工艺所制栓剂的pH、硬度、重量差异、融变时限及ESF的含量及体外释放度进行考察以建立其质量控制方法。结果所制栓剂的pH为6.95,粒度、重量差异、融变时限均符合药典规定;在建立了可行的质量评价方法后,测得ESF的平均含量为80.86 mg/ml,释药时间在12 h以上。结论优选出的制备工艺合理、可行,所制制剂符合栓剂的质量要求。     

Evolutionary choice of markets

We consider an economy where a finite set of agents can trade on one of two asset markets. Due to endogenous participation the markets may differ in the liquidity they provide. Traders have idiosyncratic preferences for the markets, e.g.due to differential time preferences for maturity dates of futures contracts. For a broad range of parameters we find that no trade, trade on both markets (individualization) as well as trade on one market only (standardization) is supported by a Nash equilibrium. By contrast, whenever the number of traders becomes large, the evolutionary process selects a unique stochastically stable state which corresponds to the equilibrium with two active markets and coincides with the welfare maximizing market structure. We are grateful to Thorsten Hens, Fernando Vega-Redondo and a referee for valuable comments. We also thank seminar participants at the University of Zurich, the CES research seminar at the University of Munich, the Koc University in Istanbul as well as conference participants at the SAET conference in Ischia, the ESEM in Lausanne and the ESF workshop on Behavioural Models in Economics and Finance in Vienna. A first version of the paper was written while Marc Oliver Bettzüge was visiting the Institute for Empirical Research in Economics at the University of Zurich. Financial Support by the Swiss Banking Institute and by the National Centre of Competence in Research “Financial Valuation and Risk Management” (NCCR FINRISK) is gratefully acknowledged. The NCCR FINRISK is a research program supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation.     

Default of Systemically Important Financial Intermediaries: Short‐term Stability versus Incentive Compatibility?

Financial integration and globalization have acted as a major stimulus in the development of large, internationally operating banks, which not only provide cross‐border services but also have a local presence. While these banks are themselves drivers of economic integration, they can pose serious threats to financial stability. Their size, interconnectedness and importance as providers of specific services mean that financial institutions can be too‐systemic‐to‐fail (TSTF). Since the entry and exit of market participants is a crucial feature of well‐functioning markets, the absence of any credible possibility of failure leads to serious distortions. This analysis gives an overview of the TSTF problem and discusses the challenges to be faced in establishing credible resolution regimes.     

THE SKILL COMPOSITION OF U.S. CITIES*

This article explores why the fraction of highly educated workers varies across U.S. metropolitan areas. It documents a set of facts that pose challenges for a number of theories. Notably, (i) cities are characterized by industry neutral differences in skilled labor productivity and (ii) the size of the business services sector is strongly correlated with cities' skill compositions. Motivated by these observations, I propose an input sharing model, in which nontraded business services complement skilled labor. I show that the model accounts for all of the empirical regularities documented in the article.     

Classifying and valuing ecosystem services for urban planning

While technological progress has fostered the conception of an urban society that is increasingly decoupled from ecosystems, demands on natural capital and ecosystem services keep increasing steadily in our urbanized planet. Decoupling of cities from ecological systems can only occur locally and partially, thanks to the appropriation of vast areas of ecosystem services provision beyond the city boundaries. Conserving and restoring ecosystem services in urban areas can reduce the ecological footprints and the ecological debts of cities while enhancing resilience, health, and quality of life for their inhabitants. In this paper we synthesize knowledge and methods to classify and value ecosystem services for urban planning. First, we categorize important ecosystem services and disservices in urban areas. Second, we describe valuation languages (economic costs, socio‐cultural values, resilience) that capture distinct value dimensions of urban ecosystem services. Third, we identify analytical challenges for valuation to inform urban planning in the face of high heterogeneity and fragmentation characterizing urban ecosystems. The paper discusses various ways through which urban ecosystems services can enhance resilience and quality of life in cities and identifies a range of economic costs and socio‐cultural impacts that can derive from their loss. We conclude by identifying knowledge gaps and challenges for the research agenda on ecosystem services provided in urban areas.     

Towards a unified scheme for environmental and social protection: Learning from PES and CCT experiences in developing countries

Environmental protection and poverty alleviation in the developing world are usually heralded as joint objectives. However, these two goals are often associated with different sectoral policy instruments. While so−called payments for environmental services (PES) are increasingly being promoted for environmental protection, poverty alleviation is increasingly addressed by conditional cash transfers (CCT) program. These instruments although aimed to achieve distinct objectives have a number of similarities and challenges in their design and implementation phases. This paper elaborates on these similarities and develops a unifying generic framework that is used to discuss the extent to which both approaches could be unified.     

加快我国人才服务业发展的几点思考

人才服务业,指的是以满足人才和用人单位有关人才资源开发过程中的各种需求,并为其提供相应效用的活动为主要特征的服务部类。经过20多年的发展,我国人才服务业在规模、对象、内容、手段、合作、监管方面都取得了跨越式的发展,但也存在产业综合竞争力不强、公共服务体系不健全、从业人才素质较差等方面的问题。面对未来,加快人才服务业发展,必须从加快发展人才服务产业、完善人事人才公共服务、加强对人才服务业的宏观调控与监督管理、提高人才服务从业人员的职业化与专业化水平4个方面切入。     

Exploring policy options in joint intertemporal-spatial trade models using an incomplete markets approach

In this paper we discuss the desirability of service trade liberlization in the presence of incompleteness of markets where there is both inter-spatial and intertemporal trade between countries. We use numerical simulation methods for insights and relate our discussion to the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) in the WTO. We interpret the absence of intertemporal trade as an absence of intermediation services provided by both domestic and foreign service providers. For simplicity, we consider extreme cases where intertemporal intermediation services can only be provided by domestic providers, so that when intertemporal trade in services is not allowed, markets are not complete. To our knowledge, this type of models is not used in the trade literature as general comparative statics results are unavailable. We first consider the liberalization of trade in financial services in an inter-spatial and intertemporal model of two countries, and we show how services liberalization can be welfare worsening in the presence of a tariff on spatial trade in goods. We show that this can hold in an artificial world with no domestic financial services provider. We compare financial service trade autarky in which there is no intermediation to financial service trade liberalization which involves costless intertemporal intermediation provided by foreign service providers. We also consider a more complex (and realistic) world where costly intermediation services can be provided by both domestic and foreign providers. This paper draws in part on material of an earlier paper, “Financial Services Trade Liberalization in A Joint Spatial Intertemporal Multi-Country Model” by Huang et al. (2004). We acknowledge the financial support from The Centre for Intentional Governance Innovation (CIGI), Waterloo, Canada and from National Social Science Foundation of China (SSFC Grant 07AJL002), National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC Grant 70825003) and “Humanities and Social Science” Major Project, Chinese Ministry of Education (Grant Number 07JJD790145).     

Ecosystem services and agriculture: Cultivating agricultural ecosystems for diverse benefits

Crop and rangelands are over 25% of the Earth's land area, and they are expanding. Agricultural ecosystems rely on a suite of supporting ecosystem services to provide food, fiber and fuel as well as a range of accompanying but non-marketed ecosystem services (ES). Ecosystem services from agriculture include regulation of water and climate systems, aesthetic and cultural services, as well as enhanced supporting services (such as soil fertility). Many of these ES are appreciated by people, but they lack markets, so they lack the incentives for provision that come with prices. For public policy decisions to take them into account, non-market valuation techniques are needed, such as travel cost, contingent valuation, hedonic valuation, and cost-based or factor-income approaches. This article offers an overview of ES from agriculture and non-market valuation methods as it introduces the articles in this special section on “Ecosystem Services and Agriculture.” Understanding how ecological functions generate ES is fundamental to management, but so too is understanding how humans perceive and value those services. Research is required both to design cost-effective incentives to provide ES and to measure which kinds of ES could provide the greatest overall welfare benefits to society. Agricultural ecosystems offer newly recognized potential to deliver more diverse ecosystem services and mitigate the level of past ecosystem disservices. This special section of Ecological Economics conveys both how these are becoming possible and the challenges to science and public policy design of turning that potential into reality.     

WILL GERMAN BANKS EARN THEIR COST OF CAPITAL?

In recent years, the German banking sector has overcome major challenges such as the global financial crisis and the European debt crisis. This paper analyzes a recent development as a particular determinant of the future outlook for the German banking sector. Interest rates are at historically low levels and may remain at these levels for a considerable period of time. Such levels pose a specific challenge to banks which are heavily dependent on interest income, as is the case for most German banks. We consider different interest rate scenarios and analyze the extent to which they cause a further narrowing of the interest rate margin. Our results indicate that a projected decline in this margin will result in no more than 20% of German banks earning a cost of capital of 8% by the end of this decade. However, we show that this decline is alleviated by the fact that German banks can apply a special feature of German accounting standards by using hidden and open reserves. We discuss how these income smoothing tools will provide a cushion that supports short‐ and medium‐term adjustments through a buffer effect. (JEL G21, G28)     

African farmers’ market organizations and global value chains: competitiveness versus inclusiveness

Abstract

This conceptual paper discusses the challenges smallholder producer cooperatives in developing countries face while trying to access agricultural global value chains. We assess the problem of competitiveness related to lack of commitment and improper selection. Prioritization of open membership over selection is generally taken for granted in the policy debate on farmers’ market organizations (FMOs). We argue that open membership may work in community-driven organizations, however, it becomes a major threat for entrepreneurial FMOs. Inclusion facilitates free riding, which forms a barrier for investments of members. This is one of the major reasons why so many of these organizations are so much resource constrained, i.e. are not able to compete in the market without external support. FMOs should take targeting and selection serious if entrepreneurial activities are intended. Otherwise, they miss the opportunity to create a committed member base willing to invest in a potentially competitive organization.     

Ecosystem services and dis-services to agriculture

Agricultural ecosystems are actively managed by humans to optimize the provision of food, fiber, and fuel. These ecosystem services from agriculture, classified as provisioning services by the recent Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, depend in turn upon a web of supporting and regulating services as inputs to production (e.g., soil fertility and pollination). Agriculture also receives ecosystem dis-services that reduce productivity or increase production costs (e.g., herbivory and competition for water and nutrients by undesired species). The flows of these services and dis-services directly depend on how agricultural ecosystems are managed and upon the diversity, composition, and functioning of remaining natural ecosystems in the landscape. Managing agricultural landscapes to provide sufficient supporting and regulating ecosystem services and fewer dis-services will require research that is policy-relevant, multidisciplinary and collaborative. This paper focuses on how ecosystem services contribute to agricultural productivity and how ecosystem dis-services detract from it. We first describe the major services and dis-services as well as their key mediators. We then explore the importance of scale and economic externalities for the management of ecosystem service provision to agriculture. Finally, we discuss outstanding issues in regard to improving the management of ecosystem services and dis-services to agriculture.     

黄河流域水资源生态系统服务价值时空变化及驱动分析——以关中平原城市群为例

黄河流域城市群的发展面临着水资源刚性约束强、跨域治理难度大、承载力不足等问题的严峻挑战。采用环境经济核算方法与水足迹评估了关中平原城市群水资源生态系统服务价值，在描述时空演变特征的基础上揭示了社会经济因素对价值变化的驱动作用。结果表明，生态系统服务价值平稳增长，呈现东南部高于西北部的区域差异特点。价值变化受农业总产值与第二产业生产总值的影响较大，城镇化率、旅游人数等也是主要影响因素。建议把生态系统服务价值纳入到城市水治理中，通过调整城市产业结构与人口密度、推进跨域协同等措施加快绿色转型。本文探索性地编制城市群水资源生态系统账户并进行了核算，为突出生态服务功能在水资源保护与利用提供了科学依据。     

Implementing technology-forcing policies: The 1970 Clean Air Act Amendments and the introduction of advanced automotive emissions controls in the United States

Technology forcing is a strategy where a regulator specifies a standard that cannot be met with existing technology, or at least not at an acceptable cost. Using the 1970 U.S. Clean Air Act for controlling automobile emissions as a baseline example, we demonstrate the importance of the regulatory implementation process if regulations are to foster technological change. The 1970 legislation required steep emissions reductions for new 1975 and 1976 automobiles, which presented automakers with major technical and economic challenges. Nevertheless, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency successfully forced the adoption of two marquee control technologies—the catalytic converter in 1975 and the three-way catalyst in 1981. We focus on three factors critical to the implementation process: agency credibility to enforce standards, competitive pressures to drive industry research and development, and uncertainty about technological development.     

Australian Banking Efficiency and Its Relation to Stock Returns

We used Data Envelopment Analysis to evaluate cost efficiency of Australian banks in producing banking services and profit between 1995 and 2002. Empirical results indicate the major banks have improved their efficiency in producing banking services and profit, while the regional banks have experienced little change in the efficiency of producing banking services, and a decline in the efficiency of producing profit. An attempt is made to relate the changes in efficiency to stock returns. Results indicate that for our sample, changes in firm efficiency are reflected in stock returns.     

NATIONAL PRODUCT AT CONSTANT PRICES IN THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY

With few exceptions, only cormmodity flows and values which can be determined by means of commodity flows (flows of goods and services) are calculated in constant prices in the official national accounts of the Federal Republic of Germany. Figures an the industrial origin and the final use of the national product are published, the former according to thirty industries, the latter according to the major types of uses of which in particular private consumption expenditure has been further analysed. The computations at constant prices are based on market prices and not on factor costs. It is only on this basis that a uniform valuation of the production and the expenditure side can be made since the turnover tax, which is the most important indirect tax, is contained in the elements of final demand in varying shares and cannot be eliminated (the tax is part of the price and has cumulative effect). The computation at constant prices presupposes a breakdown of the values in current prices according to quantities and prices. This raises a number of problems, e.g. because seller and buyer may consider differing aspects-production costs, technical attributes, etc., on the one hand, and use etc., on the other hand. In part there exist only vague ideas, or no ideas at all, as to what is to be considered-from a theoretical point of view-as quantity and price. In other cases the two values can only with great difficulties, if at all, be quantified, or there exists no market price and only the production costs are available. The author deals in greater detail with differences in quality and new commodities, the determination and treatment of quantities and prices for services, in particular for trade services (services attached to goods), the computation of government services at constant prices considering the development of productivity in public service, the determination of the values calculated as balances, above all the treatment of changes in the terms of trade for net exports of goods and services, the computation of the contributions of industries to the gross domestic product and, finally, the reconciliation of the production and the expenditure side. In a third section the author deals with index formulae and the base year. In the majority of cases values are deflated; partly, however, they are currently adjusted by means of volume and quantity data. On the production side the two methods are in part combined. In a concluding section a survey is provided of the computation methods used in the Federal Republic of Germany and on the available material for the computations. Mention is made of depreciation at constant prices.