The International Coffee Agreement: Economics of the Nonmember Market

The provisions of the 1983 International Coffee Agreement (ICA) and proposed reforms to eliminate exports to nonmember importers at discounted prices are analyzed. The discounted sales were a key issue that led to the breakdown of negotiations for a new ICA and the end of export quotas under the current agreement. A model of the world coffee market incorporating the policy response of exporting countries is used to analyze the welfare implications of the different alternatives. The model shows that the price discounts result from the structure of the current agreement (the existence of nonmember importing countries) and allocation of export quotas for the member market, which does not reflect export capacity. Welfare calculations based on the model show that several small exporters derive substantial benefits from nonmember market sales. These exporters will not be willing to comply with an arrangement to allocate quotas for the nonmember market unless they receive a large share of this market. However, the large exporters appear determined to retain their market share. The results of the model predict that, unless importers no longer insist on eliminating the price discounts, a new agreement is unlikely.     

基于AHP的中国碳交易价格影响因素评价

碳交易作为一种全新的交易,在我国发展迅速。目前我国以清洁发展机制为主要的交易项目,是全球碳交易市场最大的排放权输出国。然而我国碳交易的价格持续走低,远远低于国际碳交易的价格,使得交易利润被大幅度压缩,阻碍了我国碳交易的顺利发展。运用层次分析法,从市场、技术、生态、政策管理四个方面,选取对中国碳交易价格有影响的19个主要因素进行分析和评价,确定各个因素的影响权重,从而找出影响我国碳交易价格的最主要因素,得出排在前五位的影响因素分别是欧盟配额数量、各国的实际排放量、国际制度的变化、交易成本和碳信用的认证标准。根据碳交易价格的主要影响因素提出对策,促进我国碳交易的进一步发展,完善我国碳交易市场。     

Price Asymmetry in the International Wheat Market

Most wheat exports are accounted for by a limited number of countries with different policy regimes and specializing, for the most part, in particular classes of wheat. Under these circumstances, there is likely to be considerable interaction among the major exporting countries in the determination of wheat prices. In this paper, price linkages between the U.S. and other exporting countries (Canada, the European Union, Argentina and Australia) in the world wheat market are investigated. After determining that the direction of causality is from U. S. prices to the prices of other exporting countries, the nature of the price linkages is studied. The results suggest that the major exporting countries respond asymmetrically to U.S. price changes. The degree of asymmetry differs from one exporting country to another, Argentina and the European Union show greater response to falling prices than to rising prices, while the opposite is true for Canada and Australia.     

中国苹果国际竞争力实证研究

该文采用国际市场占有率和贸易竞争指数两个状态指标,以3个苹果出口贸易大国为参照,考察了10年间(1994～2003)中国苹果的国际竞争力。结果表明,中国的苹果在国际市场上有一定竞争力,但是与其他苹果大国相比还有很大差距。中国苹果在国际市场上一直具有价格优势,出口价格并不是影响中国苹果国际竞争力的主要因素,影响中国苹果国际竞争力的因素主要是非价格因素,包括苹果质量、品种、流通和营销等。文章最后提出了增强中国苹果国际竞争力的几点建议。     

Global rice trade competitiveness: a shift‐share analysis

Changes in country shares of global rice exports from 1997 to 2008 are analyzed using an econometric, shift‐share analytical framework. This framework estimates growth rates and disaggregates these rates of change into geographical structure effects and performance effects. The performance effect is further decomposed into two subeffects accounting for adaptation to changes in the geographical structure of the marketplace and a competitiveness effect. A restricted, weighted, two‐way fixed effects model is specified for estimating the geographical structure and performance effects. Results indicate a growing concentration among a few exporting countries in the global rice market, and the competitiveness effect is often significant. Government policies affecting rice trade and the competitiveness of trading partners are important factors for the shifts in rice trade patterns. In particular, Vietnam is an emerging, major player in global rice trade in competition with Thailand.     

中国人造板产业国际竞争力的评价

利用FAOSTAT的1961--2004年期间的人造板统计数据，从国际市场占有率、贸易竞争指数、显示性比较优势指数和产业内贸易指数等4个指标，分别对中国人造板产业国际竞争力进行定量评价，并与美国、加拿大和德国等10个世界人造板主要出口国进行国际比较，得出了2004年中国人造板产业具有较强的国际竞争力，并表现出不断增强的趋势的结论。     

In Vino ‘No’ Veritas: impacts of fraud on wine imports in China

China is one of the largest wine importing countries in the world and is poised for continued import growth in the future. Increased wine purchases throughout China have given rise to persistent fraud where fake wines are packaged and sold with counterfeit contents and labels. For exporting countries like France, counterfeit wines displace market share, damage foreign brand reputation, and cause distrust in consumers who are aware of counterfeiting problems throughout the country. We examine the impact of fraudulent wine events (as measured by negative media reports) on Chinese wine demand differentiated by supplying country. We employ the Rotterdam demand system and a switching regression procedure to estimate import demand and compare results across different media variable specifications. Results consistently show that negative reports disproportionately affect French wine regardless of how the media variable is specified. This is not surprising because most fraudulent events involve French wine counterfeits.     

Policy reform and farmers' wheat allocation in rural China: a case study*

Market‐oriented policy reforms often have important effects on farm‐level grain production and utilisation decisions in developing countries. China's grain farmers are of particular interest because of China's importance in world grain markets and because of China's recent major agricultural policy advances and retrenchments. An empirical evaluation of market liberalisation among farmers located in two provinces in China on farm‐level wheat consumption, market sales and on‐farm storage during 1994 is presented. The results indicate that policymakers should account for such changes in farm household behaviour in designing and assessing the consequence of market liberalisation programs for agricultural sectors in developing countries.     

Determinants of dairy-product trade: Do subsidies matter?

Given the recent changes in the supply and demand of dairy products, many opportunities arise for exporting and importing countries. This paper examines determinants of dairy-product trade by applying the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) method to the gravity model using panel data on 49 exporting and 235 importing countries for the 17 years from 2000 to 2016. The gravity model is estimated using both interval data and dynamic analyses. The results show that domestic subsidies have a modest, but significant, impact on dairy-product trade across the models. For example, a 1% increase in subsidies leads to a roughly 0.02% increase in trade for an average country. Memberships in trade agreements, market size factors, and government institutions also positively affect dairy-product trade. However, tariffs are insignificant in the main model specification. Results from the lag-policy analysis show that the impact of subsidies disappears after the second year of distribution; whereas for the lead-policy analysis, results suggest at least 3 years of anticipatory effects on domestic subsidies.     

Assessing the effectiveness of rural credit policy on the adoption of integrated crop-livestock systems in Brazil

This study analyzes the effectiveness of rural credit policy to increase the adoption of ICLS. Analyzes are based on a survey with 175 farmers in the State of São Paulo, Brazil. Our estimates suggest that rural credit has positive and relevant impacts on the adoption of ICLS. In turn, the adoption of these systems may also involve investments in fixed capital and increases in operational costs, which create additional demand for rural credit. Other factors, such as access to extension policy, production scale, ex-ante perceptions, and market infrastructure also explain ICLS adoption. The access to rural credit policy is also determined by dependence on farm income, farmer’s perception of transaction costs, and supply of credit in the municipality. The study finally discusses important implications for the devising of rural credit policies and the diffusion of sustainable production systems in developing countries.     

Spatial and Temporal Marketing Considerations under Marketing Loan Programs

Marketing assistance loan (MAL) and loan deficiency payment (LDP) programs differ in their treatment of transportation costs. Marketing decisions are analyzed under these programs when producers are differentiated by location with respect to the terminal market. Under certain conditions, a complete characterization of equilibrium is developed. The proposed model broadly fits several "stylized" facts about producer enrollment in these programs. If LDPs are uniform at all locations, LDP programs do not interfere with marketing decisions. MAL programs distort the optimal marketing pattern by providing incentives to store for producers who should be among the first ones to supply the market.     

Productivity and Structural Heterogeneity in the Brazilian Manufacturing Sector: Trends and Determinants

Structural heterogeneity (SH)—i.e. the existence of marked asymmetries in labour productivity among firms, along with low-productivity firms forming a large share of total employment—plays an important role in development theory. But only recently has the availability of micro data made the rigorous measuring of SH possible. This paper makes compatible different databases on manufacturing production, innovation and micro-social data for Brazil—PIA, RAIS, Secex and PINTEC—for 2000–2008 in order to measure SH and analyse its determinants. First, productivity groups are formed out of the universe of Brazilian manufacturing firms using a k-mean cluster methodology. Second, the variables affecting the productivity group to which each firm belongs are tested using an ordered probit model. The results indicate that increasing returns (captured by the firm's market share, the number of employees in innovative activities, workers' years of schooling and the accumulation of workers' experience), the technological intensity of the industry, learning by exporting and public support to R&D have driven productivity growth and reproduced SH through time, as predicted by development and evolutionary theories.     

中国木质家具出口贸易波动成因分析——基于CMS模型的国际比较

以加拿大、德国、意大利、马来西亚和美国5个国家作为对比国,利用1992～2006年的Comtrade数据,通过CMS模型比较分析了影响中国木制家具出口贸易变动的因素。结果表明:⑴影响中国木制家具出口贸易波动的因素主要来自际市场需求因素、出口的产品整体竞争力效应和出口商品结构变化3个方面;⑵中国木质家具国际竞争力处于稳步上升阶段,是6个木制家具出口国中增长最稳定的一个。     

EU agri-environmental programs and the "restaurant table effect"

The share of agricultural area enrolled in EU agri-environmental programs varies significantly between EU member states. These national differences are explained, based on a model that reflects both, that these programs internalize externalities and the political economy. We identify six factors that affect the extent to which agri-environmental programs are implemented: environmental benefits, opportunity costs of participation, budgetary pressure, the share of program expenditures financed by the EU, the political weight attributed to farmers at the national, and the political influence of each country at the EU level. In addition, we demonstrate that, if the policy decision-making process is noncooperative at the EU level, countries that contribute less to the EU budget will ceteris paribus implement more programs. Using data of four years and feasible generalized least square methods, we are able to confirm our theoretical results including a noncooperative behavior of EU member states.     

基于引力模型的中国柑橘出口贸易影响因素研究

中国柑橘的出口对中国南方广大果农的脱贫致富以及新农村建设的顺利进行有重要的作用。运用1992～2007年的面板数据,利用随机效应模型的估计方法对中国柑橘出口影响因素进行实证分析,结果显示:进口国的GDP、中国的农业从业人口、进口国的人口、距离、汇率、中国柑橘总产量以及与东盟的合作关系等7个要素显著影响中国柑橘的出口。潜力进行测算得出:荷兰、香港、加拿大、印度尼西亚、马来西亚、俄罗斯、越南、美国和新加坡等9个国家和地区属于潜力再造型;日本属于潜力开拓型;德国、菲律宾、泰国、新西兰、韩国和澳大利亚属于潜力巨大型。对此提出积极加入区域合作组织、降低柑橘成本、改善储运条件和改善出口市场结构的建议。     

Market Performance of International Agriculture as Modified by Government Subsidies and Trade Barriers

Many developed countries have reduced agricultural market performance in the last decade with increased domestic subsidies and trade barriers. Several data sets were used to illustrate the extent of market distortion among some markets. Economic theory can show that these distortions reduce the general welfare in the countries with high trade barriers as well as the traditional agricultural exporting countries. The dairy industries appear to have the highest Producer Subsidy Equivalent. Among the developed countries, Western European countries and the Pacific Rim countries have caused major distortions in international markets of many agricultural products. Market performance in agricultural industries would be substantially improved if these major distortions were eliminated.     

Leverage,liquidity and information in commercial property prices

Transactions volume and property cash flows appear to have little, if any, predictive value for commercial property price appreciation in the US during 2001 to mid-2015. Price appreciation is predicted by both credit tightening and the market share of highly active investors. Buyer composition (introduced by this study) appears to proxy informational content in the transactions market, as trading patterns for highly active investors are consistent with those possessing informational advantages. Underwriting restrictiveness adversely affects asset prices. Apart from buyer composition and credit policy, aggregate price movement appears largely produced by cycles of investment momentum rather than cycles in commercial property fundamentals.     

An economic assessment of the Common Market Organization for bananas in the European Union

The main objective of this paper is to provide some estimates of how the world banana market has been affected by the Common Market Organization (CMO) for bananas established in the European Union (EU) on 1 July 1993, and modified in April 1994. We quantify the effects of the new EU regulation on world and EU prices, on the structure of EU imports from Latin American countries, African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) countries and EU regional suppliers, on the pattern of consumption in the various EU member states, and on consumers' and producers' welfare using a static partial equilibrium model of the world banana market. Simulation results suggest that the two key variables in determining the effects of the CMO are the size of the tariff quota on dollar and non-traditional ACP bananas and the capacity of ACP countries to exhaust their ACP contingent share.     

国际粮食形势及我国粮食生产潜在危机与对策

近几年世界谷物需求不断扩大,谷物库存不断减少,国际谷物价格快速上涨,粮食价格危机在全球快速蔓延。粮食出口国纷纷出台控制粮食出口政策,粮食进口国纷纷到国际市场抢购粮食。一些经济较贫困的国家因无力在国际市场抢购粮食,或无力通过财政补贴抑制国内粮食价格的快速上涨,而诱发社会动荡。尽管我国因有较充足的粮食库存,受国际粮食危机的冲击不大,但我国粮食安全仍存在潜在危机,还需采取强化耕地资源保护、水利设施和依靠科技等措施,确保我国粮食生产稳定发展和基本自给。     

Determinants of farmers' indigenous soil and water conservation investments in semi-arid India

This paper investigates the determinants of farmers' indigenous soil and water conservation investments in the semi-arid tropics of India. A simple theoretical model is used to develop hypotheses about the determinants of investment under alternative factor market conditions, and these are tested using data on conservation investment from three villages. We find that conservation investment is significantly lower on leased land in two of the study villages and lower on plots that are subject to sales restrictions in one village, suggesting the potential for land market reforms to increase conservation investment. In one village, households with more adult males, more farm servants, and less land invest more in conservation, as predicted by Ihe model of imperfect labor markets; and households with more debt and off - farm income invest more, consistent with the model of imperfect credit markets. Evidence that conservation investment is affected by factor market imperfections is weaker in the other villages, where investments are much larger, suggesting transaction costs as the source of the differences between villages. Other factors that have a significant effect on investment include the farmer's education and caste, characteristics of the plot (size, slope, irrigation status, and quality ranking) and the presence of existing land investments. The results suggest the importance of accounting for differences across communities and households in factor market and agroelimatic conditions in designing programs to promote investments in soil and water conservation.