Impact of Chinese growth and trade on labor in developed countries

This paper examines the impacts of growth in China's economy and trade on the skill premium of labor in developed countries. We utilize a unique global dataset that disaggregates workers by occupations to identify impacts across labor categories with different skill sets, complementing the widely used GTAP Data Base in the CGE framework offered by the GTAP model. To study the impacts of China's fast-paced growth, we model the counterfactual, i.e., what if China grew and opened at a more modest rate; we then compare this baseline with China's actual growth. Results indicate that a strong rise in manufacturing exports from China to the US impacts output and employment in the US. The US shifts its production away from light manufacturing sectors to more service-oriented sectors that also tend to engage higher skilled labor. There is a small decrease in the real wages of unskilled labor and a rise in the real wages of skilled labor. Interestingly, not all categories of unskilled labor lose, rather those that are more directly linked with manufacturing sectors are impacted; unskilled ‘service and shop workers’ and the unskilled ‘agricultural workers, machine operators, assemblers, craft workers, and others’ observe a small decline in real wages, while the impact on unskilled ‘clerks’ is insignificant. For all categories of skilled workers, there is an increase in real wages primarily driven by the shift in production to services and high-skilled labor intensive categories, resulting in the rising skill premium. Hence disaggregating the labor data provides greater depth on the understanding of the differential impacts on domestic workers resulting from trade, and thereby guides policy on how these differential impacts can be smoothed through redistribution of benefits. Consistent with other study findings, there is a positive impact on overall growth and welfare in the US, EU and Australasia.     

调整财政民生支出和行政管理支出对劳动报酬的影响——基于CGE模型的收入再分配研究

文章通过构建反映财政支出结构的可计算一般均衡模型(CGE),对"行政管理支出和财政民生支出的调整对第一、二、三产业部门劳动报酬的影响"进行了系统的实证研究。CGE模拟结果表明,在财政支出总量增加、结构不变的情况下,行政管理部门劳动报酬增长过快,并且降低了其他部门的劳动报酬占比;其他部门的劳动报酬过低与财政行政管理支出和行政管理部门的劳动报酬增长过快有关;削减行政管理支出对国民经济各产业部门的劳动报酬具有正向影响;在财政支出增加的情况下,增大科技等财政民生支出比重对国民经济各产业部门劳动报酬的正向影响较为显著。     

Growth versus equity: A CGE analysis for effects of factor-biased technical progress on economic growth and employment

With factor-biased technical progress described as labor-saving and skill-biased technical changes, there are concerns that technological innovation can lead to unemployment and widen inequality in the economy. This study explores impacts of factor-biased technical changes on the economic system in terms of economic growth, employment, and distribution, using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The results show that technological innovation contributes to higher level of economic growth with productivity improvements. However, our analysis suggests that economic growth accompanied by skill- and capital-biased technical progress disproportionately increases demand for capital and high-skilled labor over skilled and unskilled labor. This shift in the value-added composition is found to deepen income inequality, as more people in higher income groups benefit from skill premium and capital earnings. Our results suggest that policymakers should prepare a wide range of policy measures, such as reforms in educational programs and taxation systems, in order to ensure sustainable growth.     

财政支持"三农"政策效应的CGE模拟分析

文章在对CGE模型基本原理进行简要说明的基础上,介绍了一个“八部门财政CGE模型”,并利用该模型对2006年中央财政支持三农政策的效应进行模拟分析。结果表明:(1)中央财政支持“三农”政策在提高农民收入、减缓城乡收入差距扩大方面有着较为明显的效果;(2)农民收入提高间接拉动了消费的增长,对调整投资与消费比例能起到较好的推动作用,并促进整个国民经济的平稳增长;(3)支持“三农”的财政政策并不能从根本上改变城乡居民收入差距扩大的基本格局,最终的出路还是应该在于:加快农村产业结构升级,转移农村剩余劳动力,提高农村劳动生产率。     

DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFT,POPULATION AGEING AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CHINA: A COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS

Abstract. Using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and a given ageing profile of the population to forecast the growth path of China's economy during the twenty‐first century, this study finds that: population ageing leads to declining economic growth as labour supply shrinks and the rate of physical capital formation declines; households’ material living standards improve, albeit at a declining rate; falling domestic investment partially offsets declining national savings; and the resulting saving‐investment surplus generates a current account surplus and capital outflows. Finally, the main force that can sustain China's economic growth against the backdrop of population ageing is productivity improvement.     

Contribution of international ecotourism to comprehensive economic development and convergence in the Central American and Caribbean region

Drawing on the positive experience from Costa Rica, the study examines whether international ecotourism makes a significant contribution to comprehensive economic development for the Central American and Caribbean region and contributes to comprehensive economic convergence. Following a standard empirical growth model, a dynamic panel regression model is estimated using time-series data from 1995 until 2012 for a cross section of seven countries. The interaction of international tourism and various established sustainability indicators is employed allowing ecotourism to be consistently quantified across countries, while numerous country-specific structural characteristics are controlled for. The estimation results show that international ecotourism has a statistically significant positive effect on both traditional economic development (real GDP per capita) and comprehensive economic development (adjusted net savings; ANS per capita), which is a measure of a society’s potential future well-being, thus providing evidence in support of the tourism-led growth hypothesis and pointing towards an important role for ecotourism in driving comprehensive economic convergence.     

Will Trade Liberalization Harm the Environment? The Case of Indonesia to 2020

Most-favoured-nation (MFN) trade liberalizations willalways improve global economic welfare providedglobally optimal environmental and other policies arein place. But since the latter proviso is not met inpractice, empirical studies of the environmental andresource depletion effects of such reforms are neededto determine whether trade reform is still worthwhile.This paper provides a methodology for doing that. Itis illustrated with a case study of Indonesia, a largenewly industrializing country that is rich in naturalresources and committed to taking part in majormultilateral and regional trade liberalizations overthe next two decades. A modified version of theglobal CGE model known as GTAP is used to project theworld economy to 2010 and 2020 without and with thosereforms. An environmental module is attached to theIndonesian part of that global CGE model so as tomeasure the effects of changes in economic activity onair and water pollution. The proportionalcontributions to environmental indicators of changesin the level and composition of output, and changes inproduction techniques, are identified. A base caseprojection without trade reform is compared withalternative scenarios involving full globalimplementation of Uruguay Round commitments by 2010,and the additional move to MFN free trade by APECcountries by 2020. The study suggests that, at leastwith respect to air and water, trade policy reformsslated for the next two decades would in many casesimprove the environment and reduce the depletion ofnatural resources and in the worst cases would addonly slightly to environmental degradation – evenwithout toughening the enforcement of existingenvironmental regulations or adding new ones, and evenif the reforms stimulate a faster rate of economicgrowth.     

Optimal taxation, global externalities and labor mobility

This paper concerns transboundary environmental problems in the context of an optimal tax model. We assume that part of the labor force is mobile across countries, and that the set of tax instruments includes a nonlinear income tax and a commodity tax on the ‘dirty’ good that is causing damage to the environment. The purpose is to compare the (globally optimal) second best policy of a cooperative equilibrium with the policy implicit in a noncooperative equilibrium. We show that the commodity taxes differ between equilibria because of: (i) transboundary externalities not internalized by national governments, (ii) interaction effects between environmental and other policies, and (iii) labor mobility.     

Spatial targeting of payments for environmental services: A tool for boosting conservation benefits

Payments for environmental services (PES) have become an increasingly popular market-based instrument to translate external, non-market environmental services into financial incentives for landowners to preserve the ecosystems that provide the services. However, lack of spatial differentiation in the targeting mechanism may lead to efficiency losses. Addressing this challenge, we construct an applied site selection tool, which takes into account three variables that vary in space: environmental services provided, risks of losing those services, and participation costs. Using data from Costa Rica's Nicoya Peninsula, we empirically test the tool's potential to increase the financial efficiency of the forest-focused PES program in place. Results show that, given a fixed budget, efficiency increases radically if per hectare payments are aligned to landowners' heterogeneity in participation costs, involving opportunity, transaction and direct costs of protection, respectively. Selecting sites based on environmental service potential also moderately increases efficiency. Overall additionality could in the best case be doubled, but remains generally limited due to current low deforestation risks prevailing in Costa Rica. To take advantage of the high efficiency potentials of flexible payments, we propose inverse auction systems as a cost-effective approach for the determination of micro-level participation costs.     

Validation of an R&D-based computable general equilibrium model

A computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is useful for the calculation of macroeconomic effects caused by policy impacts, but it has been considered a sticking point to evaluate how well the CGE model describes the real economy. Among various possible reasons for the difference between the standard CGE model and the real world, this paper focuses on a limited number of primary input factors and a fixed figure for the calibrated coefficient. A CGE model incorporating research and development (R&D) activity is suggested as an alternative to address the problems with the standard CGE model. The proposed model includes the following two setups: (1) a sector's own knowledge is adopted as a production factor, and (2) others' knowledge is regarded as a source of spillover effect to increase the total factor productivity (TFP) coefficient. This R&D-based CGE model is evaluated on whether its correspondence with reality is better than the standard model that omits the two setups. The two models compute baseline scenarios of South Korean economic growth from 1995 to 2010, and these results are compared to actual data. The results show that the R&D-based model fits better than the standard model in cases where the country has high TFP growth.     

Gender Pay and Occupational-Attainment Gaps in Costa Rica and El Salvador: A Relative Comparison of the Late 1980s

This study investigates gender occupational attainment and earnings differentials in El Salvador and Costa Rica at the end of the 1980s. During this decade, El Salvador experienced a civil war and an economic depression. Costa Rica was also mired in a recession in the early 1980s, but programs adopted in the mid-1980s led to rapid economic recovery. It is found that the gender pay gap in El Salvador is 30.4% and 23.6% in Costa Rica. The intercountry difference in the gap disappears after accounting for high gender differences in occupational attainment and hours worked in El Salvador.     

Economic and environmental impacts of trade liberalization: The case of Indonesia

In recent years, there has been a growing interest in the environmental impacts of trade liberalization. This paper provides further discourse in this area with a study on Indonesia and its trade agreements with Japan (IJEPA) and ASEAN (AFTA). A static global CGE model, known as the Global Trade Analysis Project, was used to project the Indonesian economy to the year 2022, with and without tariff reforms agreed under the agreements. Environmental impacts are assessed using different pollution indicators—air, water and waste. The study suggests that Indonesia would grow rapidly over the period considered with a large deterioration in its environment. Following these, however, the agreements only have a marginal positive impact on Indonesia's output but with a noticeable increase in trade flows and signs of trade diversion. Overall AFTA has a greater impact on the Indonesian economy compared to IJEPA. Similarly, the impact of trade liberalization on the environment is marginal. On the whole, tariff reform is inducing air pollution and reducing water pollution. In conclusion, the study suggests that Indonesia's participation in the AFTA and IJEPA agreements is not likely to bring drastic changes to her economic and environmental performance.     

Economic growth, labor market and demographic patterns

This study addresses the dynamic interaction between income growth, patterns of demographic variables, and characteristics of the labor market. We attempt to provide an endogenous explanation for the origin and nature of long-run sustained oscillations in the population and in economic variables. First, we develop an economic growth model containing unemployment. The resulting dynamics reveal that the emergence of irregular sustained oscillations is related to the lack of sensitivity in wage growth to changes in the employment rate. Next, labor force growth is endogenized in the basic model through micro-founded fertility choices of individuals. By introducing the endogenous fertility rate into the basic model, we generate a demographic transition. Next, consistent with Malthusian cycle literature, the inevitable time lag between individual reproductive decisions and subsequent market needs, in conjunction with a highly specialized labor force, appear to be the primary source of such long-run oscillations. Finally, the model predicts that raising the age of entry into the labor force increases economic growth.     

Dual Labor Markets and Trade Reform in China

This paper specifically models rigidities in the labor market in China and analyzes the effect of labor market liberalization on economic growth using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Our results indicate that labor market reforms are essential to the realization of significant gains from China's accession in November 2001 to the World Trade Organization (WTO). In the absence of labor market reform, the gains to accession to the WTO are estimated to be minimal.     

A new look at the benefits of diversification: lessons from Central America

Recent trends of export diversification in Central America may lower foreign exchange earnings instability there. Four countries–Costa Rica, El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala–are analysed across a twenty-year period. The paper uses United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics to explain why Costa Rica and Honduras have enjoyed greater earnings stability in recent years, despite the fact that Honduras has not greatly diversified its export products and markets. Despite the growth of new agricultural and manufacturing goods, traditional primary products still dominate the countries' export portfolios. Specific products within each of the four broad product category groups contribute to the varied country outcomes. Summary statistics from the United Nations (panel) data suggest newer agricultural exports have not stabilized Guatemalan and Salvadoran export earnings, while Honduras has enjoyed relatively stable banana export revenues and Costa Rica has benefited from the smooth flow of microelectronic products. Further panel data regression analysis shows country size and intangible country effects also explain parts of the detrended earnings deviation in addition to product base and level of diversification.     

Conditional cash transfers tools to combat child labor: Evidence from a randomized controlled trial in Costa Rica

The Government of Costa Rica collaborated with a research team to conduct a randomized controlled trial of their Working Children and Adolescents program. The program provided working youth with a monthly cash transfer with the conditions that they attend school regularly and complete their grade. This study examines the effect of the cash transfer on (1) child labor and hazardous child labor participation as well as hours worked; (2) school enrollment, attendance, and completion; and (3) self-reported health. The main findings provide evidence of a statistically significant reduction of more than 4 hours worked per week by children. The findings also suggest null effects on labor participation and school outcomes. Cost-effectiveness analysis shows that the program demonstrates a transfer effectiveness and cost-effectiveness comparable to similar interventions in Latin American countries. The subsidy alone does not seem enough to improve schooling outcomes, justifying the necessity of additional education policies to complement the cash transfer program.     

贸易增长、劳动力市场刚性与产业间劳动力转移——基于面板数据门槛效应模型的实证研究

劳动力市场刚性的存在是决定国际贸易能否促进产业间劳动力转移的关键因素之一,然而现有的实证研究却忽视了劳动力市场刚性的决定性作用。本文基于国外文献的度量方法构建劳动力市场刚性和产业间劳动力转移的度量指标,并利用面板数据门槛效应模型研究当劳动力市场刚性存在差异时贸易增长对产业间劳动力转移所产生的不同影响。本文的研究发现,当劳动力市场刚性程度低于门槛值时,贸易增长能加速产业间劳动力转移;而当劳动力市场刚性程度高于门槛值时,贸易增长则会阻碍产业间劳动力转移。由此得出结论,欲使中国的贸易增长起到促进产业间劳动力转移的效果,必须先在劳动力市场领域进行改革,消除劳动力市场刚性。     

DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE AND INEQUALITY IN THE SIZE DISTRIBUTIONS OF LABOR AND NONLABOR INCOME

This paper utilizes a joint distribution model of labor and nonlabor income that allows us to analyze the impact of demographic change in the U.S. on the marginal distributions of these two income components over time. The beta distribution of the second kind is the hypothetical statistical distribution used in this study to approximate the observed income graduation. This distribution is sum stable which allows us to compare and contrast the marginal distributions in a consistent manner, a property most hypothesized functional forms of income distribution do not possess. We are in effect using a hyperparameter model to do our estimation. We examined the impact of changes over time in labor force participation and population on the marginal distributions of labor and nonlabor income. We disaggregated the variables by sex and age cohorts and found that changes in the age distribution and in the labor supply behavior of women in particular has had a significant effect on the marginal income distributions over time. We also found that the results vary when we examined overall changes in the labor force participation rate vis a vis changes in women's labor force participation separately. The findings are consistent for both income components.     

中国区域经济发展与劳动力流动——使用区域连接CGE模型的数量分析

本文从区域间劳动力流动的视角出发分析中国区域经济发展的问题，特别是工资和收入差距的问题，使用的方法主要是区域连接CGE模型，应用该模型进行了比较静态分析（1997年）和比较动态分析（1997—2010年）。依据模拟的结果我们探讨了劳动自由流动的强度、劳动力流动的量、区域间工资或收入差距这三者之间的关系，同时也考察了扩大政府对西部等特定地区的投资所带来的效果。