ASEAN-India cooperation in trade and tourism: Trends and prospects

ASEAN-India relations have substantially changed since the end of the Cold War. With the admission of India as a Full Dialogue Partner of ASEAN since the beginning of 1996, new opportunities and new insights have now been the focuses of the ASEAN-India new economic partnership. Both sides still trade at a very low base, so prospects for the increase are promising. Trends in tourism look positive. Overall, both public and private sectors have worked for a specific action plan covering a number of areas of economic cooperation.     

Trends and patterns of the international tropical hardwood trade

In spite of the rapid expansion of tropical hardwood exports since 1960, there was no change in the structure of the trade. For a more equitable distribution of gains from the trade, tropical developing countries need to move away from log exports into domestic processing of wood. The main obstacles to future expansion of tropical hardwood exports are a lack of necessary complementary inputs in the producing countries and the restrictions to market access in the major importing countries. Rationalization of the production and trade of tropical hardwoods could contribute significantly to world welfare.     

Asian trade: long‐term patterns and key policy issues

Fragmentation‐based specialisation has become an integral part of the economic landscape of East Asia. Dependence on this new form of international specialisation is proportionately larger in East Asia, in particular in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, than in North America and Europe. In this regard, an important recent development has been the rapid integration of China into regional production networks. This development is a counterpoint to the popular belief that China's global integration would crowd out other countries' opportunities for international specialisation. The rise of product fragmentation has strengthened the case for a global, rather than a regional, approach to trade and investment policymaking. Given the global orientation of the region's economies, we question whether there would be a significant benefit from current efforts to promote regional cooperation, unless the principle of ‘open regionalism’ is recognised. With both the Doha Round and APEC floundering, this is one of the major multilateral policy challenges of our time.     

Trends,prospects, and strategies for black economic progress

As we approach the closing years of the 1980s, it is clear that, for better or worse, the focus of the struggle for black equality is shifting from traditional civil rights issues to economic development. And although people often debate how best to remedy some of the black community’s most persistent economic problems (for example, high unemployment and the narrowing, but still wide, income gap between blacks and whites), few people have attempted a dispassionate analysis of the broad scope of public and private economic options facing blacks. Too often, the debate is polarized by arguments either for increasing governmental assistance or for almost totally eliminating it. In this article, noted economist Andrew Brimmer strikes a much-needed balance. First, he scrutinizes the trends for blacks (and whites) regarding income and participation in the labor market. Then, instead of painting a picture in pure black and white, he suggests a blending of strategies, some calling for less reliance on the federal government, others requiring a strengthening of the nation’s wavering commitment to affirmative action.     

Institutional mechanism for ASEAN-India cooperation: Trends and prospects

ASEAN's dynamic structural change and India's imminent economic liberalisation and deregulation are expected to further strengthen the ASEAN-India relations. A key component in this relationshiup is the institutional mechanism that can facilitate investment and trade flows, social and cultural exchanges and technical cooperation. To intensify these links, ASEAN has established a sectoral dialogue partnership with India in 1993, covering trade, investment and tourism areas. The framework for cooperation also provides for private sector representation. In view of this increasingly important relationship, ASEAN has agreed to upgrade India as a Full Dialogue Partner in 1995. Future changes and streamlining of the ASEAN institutional mechanism is expected to further facilitate and strengthen the ASEAN-India relatiionship.     

Intra-industry trade of India: Trends and country-specific factors

Intra-industry Trade of India: Trends and Country-Specific Factors. — The analysis in this paper confirms that trade liberalization biases trade expansion towards intra-industry trade (IIT) in India. The increased level of IIT is largely exportled, that is, caused by a faster growth of exports than of imports. India’s IIT is more intense with high-income countries and is characterized by a greater extent of complementarity. Further, certain country-specific factors which are found to be crucial in the models of vertical IIT are pertinent in influencing the pattern of India’s bilateral IIT.     

International trade and worker flows: empirical evidence for Germany

Using a linked employer–employee data set for Germany, this paper studies how worker flows are related to establishments’ international trade involvement. Unconditional figures show that trading establishments have lower worker turnover rates than non-traders, suggesting a higher degree of employment stability. Conditional on an extensive set of control variables, exporting is further associated with a higher net job flow rate, which is almost entirely due to a lower separation rate (particularly for high-skilled workers and transitions into non-employment). In contrast, both an increase and a decrease in import intensity are (weakly) associated with a lower accession rate. These results are predominantly driven by smaller establishments, and they partly lose statistical significance once unobservable establishment characteristics are taken into account.     

Technological convergence and trade patterns

Textbook trade theory would suggest that emerging and developing countries specialize in lower-tech industries. In this paper the authors take a dynamic view on development and trade integration and distinguish three types of catching-up processes (the continuous-convergence approach, the climbing-up-the-ladder approach and the jumping-up approach). Using data for 25 countries and 32 industries the authors empirically analyze the different patterns of catching up over the period from 1981 to 1997. Further, they discuss linkages between technological convergence, dynamics of comparative advantage and trade patterns. JEL no. F14, L6, O10, O14, O30, O41.     

国际农产品贸易体制:回顾与展望

作为国际货物贸易的重要组成部分，农产品贸易已成为当代国际贸易发展与政策协调中最为突出和棘手的问题。在此，本文通过考察国际多边贸易体制下农产品贸易保护的特殊待遇，阐释农产品贸易保护的理论依据、成本与收益，并就农产品贸易自由化的发展前景作一展望。     

从国际生产网络视角考察东亚贸易模式转变

东亚的雁行国际分工与组织模式自上世纪90年代以来逐渐衰落,其带动东亚贸易发展的作用下降。但是一种新的分工与组织方式——国际生产网络——随即出现。本文从国际生产网络这一新的视角,考察了近年来在新的组织和分工方式下东亚贸易模式的转变,并对东亚未来贸易发展模式进行了展望。     

The impact of EMU on trade flows

The Impact of EMU on Trade Flows. — In this paper we quantify the impact of exchange rate volatility on trade flows within the EU with the help of a gravity trade model. We consider bilateral instead of total exports, and we use panel data. Moreover, we introduce dynamics into the model, taking lagged exports as explanatory variable. The estimation of this model for the period 1962–1995 leads to significant negative coefficients for the proxy of exchange rate variability. We use these estimates to calculate the potential trade-creating effect of a monetary union, setting the exchange rate volatility equal to zero.     

Time zone-related continuity and synchronization effects on bilateral trade flows

This paper finds the first empirical evidence of the time zone-related continuity effects on international trade. Several recent studies in the fragmentation/distance literatures provide theoretical justification for both positive (continuity) and negative (synchronization) effects of increased time zone differences on global export flows. This paper explicitly tests for the presence of both effects using bilateral manufacturing and service trade for 20 countries and 56 partner countries from 2000 to 2008. Results consistent with the theoretical expectations are found using a Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator. The general time zone difference effect on total exports is negative, suggesting the synchronization effect dominates. However, for services trade, the positive continuity effect is noted, indicating that time zones affect manufacturing and service trades differently. These results are robust to changes in the time zone, distance, and language measures, as well as alternate estimation techniques.     

The role of natural resources in trade patterns among the U.S., Japan,and other countries in the Asian Pacific Rim

The Role of Natural Resources in Trade Patterns among the US, Japan, and Other Countries in the Asian Pacific Rim. —The paper investigates the role natural resources play in shaping the trade patterns of both the US and Japan in trading with each other and with country groups in the Asian Pacific Rim. It has been argued that it is the US’s effective exploitation of natural resource endowment which was instrumental in that country’s rise to economic preeminence at the turn of this century. Given that the US relative resource abundance has diminished after the Second World War, one would expect to see the declining role of resources in American exports. Using data for 1973, 1982, and 1991, the empirical results indicate clearly that natural resources continue to play a critical role in explaining the more recent bilateral trade patterns.     

China's emergence and the reorganisation of trade flows in Asia

The emergence of China has intensified the international segmentation of production processes within Asia, but has not created an autonomous engine for the region's trade, as Asia still depends on outside markets for its final goods exports. The reorganisation of production has weakened the position of the advanced economies in Asia's trade, but up to now has not severely affected the position of the emerging Asian economies. However, the deterioration of China's terms of trade raises the question of the sustainability of its recent growth strategy.     

Trends and prospects of ensuring energy resources in Ukraine

The article examines the state of power supply in Ukraine for the period from 2000 to 2010. The trend in the Ukraine GDP energy intensity (at purchasing power parity), compared to other countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States, is analyzed. The key points of demand determination and of alternative ways to satisfy it in Ukraine for the period until 2015 are formulated. A forecast of production and consumption of energy resources was conducted in accordance with the expected socioeconomic development of the country through the development of advanced fuel and energy balances.     

The impact of ECOWAS on intraregional trade flows: An empirical investigation

There is a scarcity of published statistical analysis that examines the impact of economic integration schemes in Africa. This study fills the gap in the literature. The impact of Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) on trade flows of its member countries is examined applying an econometric analysis. The parameters of a multivariate trade-flows model are estimated using a panel data of the 1975 to 1991 period. The results suggest that the regional integration scheme has succeeded in increasing trade flows between member countries. The general view in the literature is that African integration schemes have failed to increase trade flows.     

Factor proportions,technology and Dutch industry’s international trade patterns

Zusammenfassung Faktorproportionen, Technologie und Au\enhandelsstruktur der niederl?ndischen Industrie. — In diesem Aufsatz wird ein Versuch unternommen, die Struktur des Au\enhandels der verarbeitenden Industrie der Niederlande im Jahre 1973 zu erkl?ren, und zwar des Handels mit der Welt insgesamt und mit drei Gruppen von L?ndern (marktwirtschaftliche Industriel?nder, Entwicklungsl?nder, Staatshandelsl?nder). Die Ergebnisse zeigen, da\ sowohl die Neo-Faktorproportionenhypothese als auch die Neo-Technologiehypothese nützliche Konzepte sind, um Bestimmungsfaktoren für die komparativen Vorteile der niederl?ndischen Industriesektoren herauszufinden. Die Neo-Faktorproportionenhypothese hat zu einer signifikanten Erkl?rung des Handels mit der Welt insgesamt, mit den marktwirtschaftlichen Industriel?ndern und den Entwicklungsl?ndern — aber nicht mit den Staatshandelsl?ndern — geführt. Die verfügbaren Daten haben es uns auch erm?glicht, die Relevanz der Neo-Technologiehypothese für den Handel mit der Welt und mit den Staatshandelsl?ndern — nicht jedoch mit den Industriel?ndern und den Entwicklungsl?ndern — zu best?tigen.

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Résumé Les proportions des facteurs, la technologie, et la structure du commerce extérieur de l’industrie des Pays-Bas. — Le sujet de cet article est un essai d’expliquer la structure du commerce extérieur de 1973 des industries manufacturières des Pays-Bas avec le monde entier et avec trois groupes des pays (économies de marché développées, économies en voie de développement, économies planifiées). Les résultats obtenus indiquent que la neo-hypothèse des proportions des facteurs et la neo-hypothèse de technologie sont en fait des concepts utiles en recherche des déterminants d’avantage comparatif des secteurs manufacturiers des Pays-Bas. La neo-hypothèse des proportions des facteurs a conduit à une explication significative pour le commerce extérieur avec le monde et avec les pays développés et développants, mais pas pour le commerce extérieur avec les économies planifiées. Les données disponibles ont permis de démontrer l’importance de la neo-hypothèse de technologie pour le commerce extérieur avec le monde et les économies planifiées, bien que pas pour le commerce extérieur avec les pays développés et développants.

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Resumen Proporciones de factores, tecnologia y los patrones de comercio international de la industria holandesa. — El tema de este artículo es un intento de explicar la estructura del comercio de las industrias manufactureras holandesas en el a?o 1973 con el mundo en su conjunto y con très grupos de países (economías de mercado desarrolladas, países en desarrollo y economias centralmente planificadas). Los resultados obtenidos confirman que tanto la neo-hip?tesis de proportión de factores como la neo-hipótesis tecnologia son efectivamente conceptos utiles en la búsqueda de determinantes de las ventajas comparativas de los sectores manufactureros holandeses. La neo-hipótesis proportión de factores ha llevado a explicaciones significativas del comercio con el mundo, y con los países desarrollados y en desarrollo, pero no del comercio con las economías centralmente planificadas. Los datos a la mano también nos han capacitado para establecer la relevancia de la neo-hipótesis tecnologia para el comercio con el mundo y las economías centralmente planificadas, pero no para el comercio con los países desarrollados y en desarrollo.