The Total Factor Productivity Debate: Determinants of Economic Growth in East Asia

This survey article examines the recent studies of technological change or total factor productivity (TFP) as a source of growth in East Asian economies. The major objective of the paper is to show that in the end the importance of technological change in economic growth depends largely on how TFP is defined and measured. The conclusions drawn by Alwyn Young and Paul Krugman are based too much upon the assumption that all technological change is TFP. Section II reviews the conceptual and empirical literature on this subject since the 1950s. Section III surveys the TFP studies of East Asian economies, with particular reference to the recent claims that TFP is generally insignificant. Section IV discusses the prospects for East Asian economic growth and dispels the pessimism of such authors as Young and Krugman.     

Transactional activities and total factor productivity growth in Taiwan

Total factor productivity (TFP) growth shows how rapidly an economy is enhancing technology and the efficiency with which it allocates resources. It has been argued that “miraculous” growth in East Asian economies may not be sustainable, due to relatively low rates of TFP growth. Among these economies, it appears that Taiwan has indeed exhibited substantial technological progress. Failure to control for transactional activities, however, can distort the impression of TFP growth. This study recalculates Taiwan's TFP growth for the 1957–1993 sample period, adjusting for transaction costs in the government and private sectors. For the early years of the sample, 1957–1973, the economy's technological progress is better than GDP-based calculations suggest. In recent years, 1983–1993, productivity improvement has been overstated, but the economy has still exhibited relatively fast TFP growth.     

Agricultural productivity growth in traditional and transitional economies in Asia

This paper reports estimates of agricultural productivity growth in Asian countries, with special attention to the transition economies. A parametric output distance function approach is formulated to decompose total factor productivity (TFP) growth into its associated components and to examine how input and output intensities shift in response to the adoption of innovations. The results show that by including the transition economies, Asia achieved healthy TFP growth at an annual average rate of 1.9 per cent. However, TFP growth and its components differ widely across the transition countries and at different stages of the transition periods within these countries.     

Imperfect Competition, Economic Miracle, and Manufacturing Productivity Growth: Empirical Evidence from Taiwan

Several recent studies on total factor productivity (TFP) concluded that the East Asian economies benefited little from TFP growth. This study claims that the failure by previous studies to consider the effect of net indirect taxes and market imperfections resulted in the underestimation of the share of the contribution of labor input to factor income, which consequently led to the overestimation of capital share and understatement of TFP growth. Therefore, this study has modified the conventional approach of calculating factor shares by taking account of net indirect taxes and market imperfections and used the modified approach to estimate TFP growth in 16 Taiwanese manufacturing industries during the period 1979–1999. The conclusion drawn by the study is that TFP growth was the driving force behind the success of Taiwan's manufacturing industries, although many of these industries experienced a sharp decline in TFP during the 1990s.     

Regional determinants of life insurance consumption: evidence from selected Asian economies

The life insurance industry in developing Asian economies is under‐developed compared with global standards. The low market penetration is attributed to full or partial government ownership and entry restrictions on foreign insurers. Regulatory changes and adoption of liberal policies have aided the growth of the life insurance industry in the past decade. At the same time, economic and social factors were expected to promote insurance awareness and consumption. In this context, the paper analyses the factors explaining life insurance demand in 12 Asian economies, including economies from the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation and Association of Southeast Asian Nations regions, as well as China. The results suggest that income, financial depth, inflation, the real interest rate, and the youth dependency ratio are significant determinants of life insurance consumption. Foreign ownership and improved regulations may foster growth. But urbanisation and the literacy rate are among the few determinants found not to have the impact observed in previous studies. The research highlights the limitations of studies using macrodata and contributes to understanding of the growing insurance industry in the region.     

The Panda that grew

China, the Panda, ranks among the world's fastest growing economies. Describing that growth, identifying and quantifying its causes, and examining international competitiveness, a growth corollary, on the assumption that China is structurally similar to a sample of 121 countries, are the purposes of this paper. The inquiry presents economic statistics, including those on convergence, by half decade from the prereform years through the Asian currency crisis. It then sketches a model that links growth to determinants that include total factor productivity (TFP). After estimating parameters it quantifies the growth contributions from the separate causes. On international competitiveness, it studies China's historical record and projects competitiveness into the near term. The paper closes with policy implications.     

China–Japan–United States integration amid global rebalancing: A computable general equilibrium analysis

Using a global general equilibrium trade model, this paper assesses the long-term implications of global rebalancing for Asian economies and explores the benefits of China–Japan–United States (US) integration. The analysis suggests that consumption evaporation, a growth slowdown in the US, and the consequent current account correction would force China, Japan, and other East Asian economies to undergo substantial structural adjustments. A combination of domestic reform aimed at boosting service sector productivity and external liberalization aimed at fostering broader economic integration will be critical for East Asian economies to facilitate their economic rebalancing and sustained growth. Our global computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis suggests that China and Japan need to strengthen their economic ties with the US while at the same time bringing other East Asian economies into this integration process.     

China： Unscathed through the Global Financial Tsunami

This paper investigates the reasons behind the resilience of China＇s economy to the global financial tsunami. China ＇s economy is lowly leveraged in its banking, household, public and external sectors and, therefore, is less plagued by the global deleveraging than most developed economies. Chinese domestic sectors have improved significantly over the past decade, giving them larger capacity to cope with external shocks than during the Asian financial crisis a decade ago. Contrary to the conventional wisdom that China＇s economic growth is highly dependent on exports, we find that the main growth engine for China is domestic demand. Destocking, rather than falling exports, was the main cause of the sharp economic slowdown in China in late 2008 and early 2009. Therefore, the global economic slowdown should have limited impact on China＇s economy. We forecast a sustained eeonomic recovery in China in 2009-2011, with real GDP growth exceeding 10 percent in 2010.     

Japan's inflation under the Bretton Woods system: How large was the Balassa–Samuelson effect?

Japan's real exchange rate appreciation during the post-WWII manufacturing-led growth period has been regarded as a classical example of the Balassa–Samuelson effect. We choose the most conspicuous sub-period—1956–1970—to confirm the effect. Japan was in a rapid growth period under the U.S. dollar peg (real GDP growth, 9.7% per annum). The nominal anchor was weak as Japan's inflation rate (GDP deflator-based, 5.4%) was markedly higher than the U.S. rate (2.6%) during the 15-year period. The decomposition of the annual 2.7% (geometric) Japan–U.S. inflation rate gap (real exchange rate appreciation of the Japanese yen) reveals that the Balassa–Samuelson effect accounted for 0.7%; most of the real exchange rate appreciation (1.7%) was attributed to greater price increases in Japan's tradables. Although Japan's tradable sector achieved high TFP growth, the joint effect of the tradable–nontradable TFP growth difference between the two economies was too small to generate a sizable Balassa–Samuelson effect. Japan's example may suggest that even in rapidly growing economies, the magnitude of the effect in long-run real exchange rate appreciation is generally modest.     

The structure and composition of international trade in Asia:: historical trends and future prospects

This paper provides an overview of the trade and foreign investment pattern of rapidly growing Asian economies in the past two decades. It also examines the underlying causes of the changing pattern of trade and considers key challenges for export-driven growth in the medium- to long-term.     

Food Security in Asia

Rapid economic and agricultural sector growth have enhanced greatly food security in Asia during the past three decades. Most studies suggest this positive trend will continue into the next century. This paper reviews past trends and future prospects in access and availability of food in Asia at the national level. The paper concludes that the positive overall trend in increased food security relies on the capacity of Asian economies to address several key policy issues, including sustained economic growth, population pressure, structural changes in domestic economies, shifts in international comparative advantage, technological changes, developments in the domestic and international food markets, and environmental sustainability. The paper identifies cost-effective ways to increase food security in light of these issues and suggests that Asia's food security can be maintained only if international and domestic policies, institutional frameworks, and public expenditure patterns are conducive to cost–effective and sustainable agriculture development.     

Does rapid economic growth enhance democratization? Time-series evidence from high performing Asian economies

We examine the long-run relationship between economic growth and democratization for the high performing Asian economies using a time-series technique called the autoregressive distributive lag bounds test. For all eight of such economies, we do not find a statistically significant long-run relationship running from growth to democratization. Instead, we find a statistically significant long-run relationship running from democratization to growth, which can be either positive or negative. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, our results suggest that rapid economic growth in the high performing Asian economies appears to have little effect on democratization in the long run.     

Competitiveness of China's Manufacturing Industry and its Impacts on the Neighbouring Countries

This paper investigates the rapid growth of China's share in the international commodity market and the structural changes of China's commodity exports. It demonstrates a significant improvement of international competitiveness in China's manufacturing sector. The panel data analysis, based on a Solow–Swan type growth model on China's 37 manufacturing industries from 1991 to 2002, reveals that the main sources of the strengthened competitiveness of China's manufacturing sector have been mainly from Total Factor Productivity (TFP), while labour productivity has been increasing and capital productivity has been falling. A preliminary empirical analysis on the impacts of China's increasing competitiveness finds that there are negative correlations between China and most of its neighbouring countries, both newly industrialised economies and other Southeast Asian developing economies. However, there is no evidence of negative impacts of China's increasing competitiveness on developed countries such as the United States and Japan.     

How growth deceleration in the PRC affects other Asian economies

Developing Asia has benefited greatly from the rise of the People's Republic of China (PRC), primarily through the trade channel. The PRC and its neighbours have collectively formed a regional production network, and the PRC is becoming an increasingly important source of final demand. Two empirical techniques are used to examine the likely economic impact of growth deceleration in the PRC on other Asian economies: (1) a single‐equation approach that captures the trade channel; and (2) a global vector autoregressive model that captures the effects beyond the trade channel. The results of both analyses confirm that deceleration in the PRC will have a non‐negligible negative effect on other economies, especially on East and Southeast Asian economies. An out‐of‐sample analysis to tease out the effects of slower growth in the PRC from the recent growth performance of selected Southeast Asian economies suggests that the PRC effect is contributing to the growth dynamics of this region but is not always dominant.     

环境不确定性、ESG责任履行与企业全要素生产率

ESG作为一种可持续发展理念和框架，引导和推动企业积极参与长期价值增长的各项实践行动。当企业面对环境不确定性时，是否还能坚持可持续发展理念和长期价值导向，继续履行ESG责任，并且该责任的履行是否能推动企业全要素生产率的提升是一个值得探讨的理论问题。文章基于企业微观环境不确定性下的管理行为选择偏差，运用实证方法以2011-2020年沪深A股上市公司数据为样本系统分析了ESG责任履行对企业全要素生产率的影响。研究发现：ESG责任履行能够提高企业全要素生产率；高低环境不确定性下，企业ESG责任履行对全要素生产率的影响存在成本管控水平和投资水平两种不同的机制作用。异质性分析发现：机构投资者持股水平在ESG责任履行对全要素生产率的提升中起到正向调节作用，且对低环境不确定企业的正向调节作用更显著。     

Business reforms and total factor productivity in Vietnamese manufacturing

Vietnam implemented reforms in the 2000s to ease start-up of new businesses with dramatic effect on firm entry and market competition. This study examines firm level data for the period 2000–2010 to analyze total factor productivity (TFP) in connection with the reforms, adopting a semi-parametric technique developed by Wooldridge (2009) and Petrin and Levinsohn (2012) to measure TFP. Intensified competition is hypothesized to have driven convergence of TFP within industrial sectors as technologies best suited to Vietnamese market conditions became more widely implemented. The evidence strongly supports this hypothesis with convergence found for 16 of the 17 sectors analyzed. Further, comparison of TFP growth rates between the first and second half of the decade shows mixed results by sector and region. More often than not, TFP growth is seen to have slowed over time. This suggests that competition acted not only to push low TFP firms to exit the market or raise productivity, it also discouraged use of technologies that may have been overly advanced and not cost efficient for Vietnam.     

Leaning against the wind: Macroprudential policy in Asia

In recent years, many countries have adopted macroprudential measures to safeguard financial stability, in particular to deal with the credit and asset price cycles driven by global capital flows. Using a newly constructed database on macroprudential instruments and capital flow measures in 13 Asian economies and 33 economies in other regions for the period 2000–2013, the paper formulates various macroprudential policy indices, aggregating sub-indices on key instruments. Asian economies appear to have made greater use of macroprudential tools, especially housing-related measures, than their counterparts in other regions. The effects of macroprudential policy are assessed through an event study, cross-country macro panel regressions, and bank-level micro panel regressions. The analysis suggests that housing-related macroprudential instruments-particularly loan-to-value ratio caps and housing tax measures—have helped curb housing price growth, credit growth, and bank leverage in Asia.     

Openness and growth in East Asia after the Asian crisis

Openness with respect to trade in goods, services and foreign direct investment has a positive marginal effect on growth. The fast-growing East Asian economies were early openers, and this contributed to their fast growth. However, East Asian countries are not relatively open today. This factor, together with the convergence effect of fast growth in the past, imply that their economies will slow down. Their growth prospects are further reduced by growing geographic discrimination against their goods and services in world markets, and the slow down of the Japanese economy.     

Determinants of bond market development in Asia

One of the major reasons behind the Asian financial crisis in 1997 was the excessive dependence of the Asian economies on commercial banks for domestic financing. The region failed to diversify its sources of corporate financing as it relied mainly on banks since its other types of financing, namely bond markets, were still underdeveloped and their sizes were quite small. On the other hand, the 2008 global financial crisis and the ongoing European debt crisis have led to constraints in acquiring local currency and foreign currency liquidity in the corporate sector in Asia as foreign banks withdrew investments from Asia. Furthermore, Asia needs large long term capital (US$ 750 billion per year for 2010–2020) for developing infrastructure connectivity within and across its economies. Local and regional capital can be channeled for long-term infrastructure projects and other productive investment through bond markets. Having a well-developed local currency bond markets can enhance the resilience of domestic financial sector to external shocks and it can facilitate better intermediation of savings into productive investments in Asia. To enhance corporate bond financing, it is important to examine factors that affect the effective development of bond markets in Asia. The study attempts to identify the determinants of bond market development in Asian economies through examining the relationship of bond issuance with selected key financial and economic factors. It also intends to provide policy recommendations for the further development of the Asian bond market. Major determinants for bond market development in Asia include the size of an economy, the stage of economic development, the openness of an economy, the exchange rate variability, the size of the banking system, and interest rate variability.     

China's post-economic reform growth: The role of FDI and productivity progress

China has become the top FDI destination among all developing countries and remained host to the world's largest share of foreign direct investment receipts since its accession to the WTO in 2001. Given the impressive growth performance and FDI influx into China, the two globalized delta economies (GDEs), Pearl River Delta (PRD) and Yangtze River Delta (YRD), have continued to out-perform all other regions in China in terms of FDI absorption and growth. The role that inward FDI plays in the process of regional development and the exact channels through which economic growth would be affected are investigated by panel data estimations of the GDEs at the city level since China's economic opening and reform. This research shows consistent results with some recent findings in other developing countries in that FDI exerted spillover effects and affected productivity (TFP) growth of the recipients. While TFP was found to be increasing overtime in the GDEs cities and facilitated economic growth in both PRD/YRD regions, major technology- and knowledge-related factors including R&D and human capital other than FDI also played critical roles in TFP enhancement and regional growth. The endogeneity of TFP and the simultaneous relations of FDI in affecting TFP and output growth are also addressed in this regard.