Employment effects of the Football World Cup 1974 in Germany

This study demonstrates that the Football World Cup 1974 in Germany was not able to generate any medium to long-term employment effects that were significantly different from zero. It is the first work to examine the employment effects of Football World Cup tournaments. It is also the first work to undertake a multivariate analysis of the employment effects of a major sporting event outside of the USA. In addition, this study does not arbitrarily determine the time period for the potential positive effects of a major sporting event but instead examines several alternative periods. Furthermore, the study tests for method sensitivity by analysing the data set in parallel with the approaches used in the studies of sporting events in the USA as well as in a fourth modifying estimation approach. In contrast to the conclusions reached in comparable studies, the results are not regarded as a clear refutation of the positive effects of major sporting events.     

The Economic Effects of the Soccer World Cup 2006 in Germany with Regard to Different Financing

This paper presents some results using the sport-economic simulation model SPORT. This model is based on a sport-specific input-output table for the year 1993, which has been integrated into the German INFORGE model. The performance of this model founded on the INFORUM philosophy. The results illustrate the importance of modelling sport-economic activities in deep detail, especially the integration of the system of national accounts. In addition, the results also show that it is possible to calculate the macroeconomic effects of the soccer World Cup, which may perhaps be hosted by Germany in 2006, with regard to the different financing of necessary extensions of public sports infrasfructure. Under favourable conditions-independent of the type of financing of these necessary investments-the staging of the soccer World Cup positively influences income and employment. Such calculations allow the decision-maker to estimate the opportunity costs of their decisions and can be the basis for an extended cost-benefit analysis.     

从南非世界杯看中国元素的国际化发展

南非世界杯已经圆满落幕,但是那些在世界杯闪耀的中国元素仍然吸引着全世界的目光。呜呜祖拉、普天同庆、中国英利、哈尔滨啤酒等一系列中国元素弥补了中国队缺席世界杯的遗憾,同时昭示着中国元素的国际化发展。然而,中国元素的世界杯之旅也暴露出诸多问题,优势与弊端并存,机遇与挑战并进,唯有明确意识,深入分析,努力创新,中国元素才不至于成为过眼云烟。     

Market impact of international sporting and cultural events

We study market reaction to the announcements of the selected country hosting the Summer and Winter Olympic Games, the World Football Cup, the European Football Cup and World and Specialized Exhibitions. We generalize previous results analyzing a large number and different types of mega-events, evaluate the effects for winning and losing countries, investigate the determinants of the observed market reaction and control for the ex ante probability of a country being a successful bidder. Average abnormal returns measured at the announcement date and around the event are not significantly different from zero. Further, we find no evidence supporting that industries, that a priori were more likely to extract direct benefits from the event, observe positive significant effects. Yet, when we control for anticipation, the stock price reactions around the announcements are significant.     

2010年南非世界杯对中国足球的启示

2010年南非世界杯已经落下帷幕,但32强的表现令我们回味,尤其是亚洲球队的表现更是令人称赞。通过总结南非世界杯比赛,提出世界足球的发展趋势,分析中国足球的现状,提出对中国足球发展的建议和可行措施。     

Marktorientiertes Sportmanagement: Empirische Analyse des Einflusses der Marketinginstrumente auf die Markenstärke eines Sportevents

During the last two decades, sponsorship as a management and marketing tool has grown remarkably. This enormous economic potential, e.g. in form of sponsoring packages, makes it necessary for the organizers of sporting events to implement a systematic marketing strategy. The present study therefore attempts to measure the effectiveness of the marketing of sporting events using brand equity as an indicator. The theoretical modeling of the brand equity and the empirical examination are case-specifically conducted for the FIFA World Cup 2006 in Germany. The elements of the marketing mix are used as drivers of the brand equity. The empirical examination identifies the product of the World Cup 2006 as the most effective driver of brand equity. Based on these results implications for the management are developed.     

The Rocky Road to Legacy: Lessons from the 2010 FIFA World Cup South Africa Stadium Program

This article describes how the management and organization of the South African 2010 FIFA World Cup stadium program shaped the current legacy of an oversupply of overdesigned and underutilized stadiums. The article identifies seven key factors that explain the differences between expected benefits and the actual legacy. Identification of these factors contributes to the increasing academic interest in explaining the poor legacy outcomes of mega‐events. In conclusion, we recommend that future host country governments defragment their stadium programs by establishing a World Cup Delivery Authority (WCDA), with responsibility for the leadership and coordination of the stadium program.     

第19届世界杯足球赛进球手段及方式的研究

对第19届世界杯足球赛决赛阶段32支球队64场比赛的145个进球特征进行统计与分析,结果表明:下半场进球数高于上半场,全场比赛结束前15 min是全场比赛进球最高峰;进球前通过传接配合是进球数最多的技、战术手段;进球方式是以脚射为主,其中,抢点直接射进球数最多。     

Bayesian clustering with priors on partitions

Traditional clustering algorithms are deterministic in the sense that a given dataset always leads to the same output partition. This article modifies traditional clustering algorithms whereby data are associated with a probability model, and clustering is carried out on the stochastic model parameters rather than the data. This is done in a principled way using a Bayesian approach which allows the assignment of posterior probabilities to output partitions. In addition, the approach incorporates prior knowledge of the output partitions using Bayesian melding. The methodology is applied to two substantive problems: (i) a question of stylometry involving a simulated dataset and (ii) the assessment of potential champions of the 2010 FIFA World Cup.     

Evaluating the effectiveness of Washington state repeated job search services on the employment rate of prime-age female welfare recipients

This paper uses an unbalanced panel dataset to evaluate how repeated job search services (JSS) and personal characteristics affect the employment rate of the prime-age female welfare recipients in the State of Washington. We propose a transition probability model to take into account issues of sample attrition, sample refreshment and duration dependence. We also generalize Honoré and Kyriazidou’s [Honoré, B.E., Kyriazidou, E., 2000. Panel data discrete choice models with lagged dependent variables. Econometrica 68 (4), 839–874] conditional maximum likelihood estimator to allow for the presence of individual-specific effects. A limited information test is suggested to test for selection issues in non-experimental data. The specification tests indicate that the (conditional on the set of the confounding variables considered) assumptions of no selection due to unobservables and/or no unobserved individual-specific effects are not violated. Our findings indicate that the first job search service does have positive and significant impacts on the employment rate. However, providing repeated JSS to the same client has no significant impact. Further, we find that there are significant experience-enhancing effects. These findings suggest that providing one job search services training to individuals may have a lasting impact on raising their employment rates.     

中国女足与世界女足强队技战术风格比较研究

随着世界女子足球的不断发展,特点不鲜明的球队是难以在发展越来越快、竞争越来越激烈的世界足坛有立足之地。通过对女子足球最重要的赛事一世界杯部分比赛的录像观察和数据的统计分析,把中国女足与第五届女足世界杯前三名球队的技战术风格特点进行比较,以探讨我国女足的技战术风格现状。     

FDI的就业效应:基于江苏三次产业的差异分析

利用江苏1995年-2009年的FDI与就业数据,对江苏FDI的就业效应进行了回归分析。实证研究表明,从总体来看,FDI会促进江苏就业的增加;具体到三次产业,就业效应却又有显著的差异,其中第一产业的就业效应为负,第二和第三产业的就业效应为正,但是总效应为正。因此可以说,江苏吸引FDI使得江苏更多的劳动力得到了就业的机会。     

Labour contract regulations and workers' wellbeing: International longitudinal evidence

All industrialized countries have employment protection legislation (EPL) for permanent workers and restrictions on the use of temporary employment (RTE). The (ambiguous) effects of these on the levels of employment and unemployment have been extensively studied, but nothing is known empirically about their wellbeing implications. Using longitudinal data from the European Community Household Panel, the author conducts the first study of the link between both EPL and RTE and workers' wellbeing. The results provide evidence that both permanent and temporary employees gain from reforms that ease restrictions on temporary employment but leave firing costs for permanent workers unchanged. This finding contrasts with common claims found in the political economy literature.     

第17-19届世界杯足球赛进球数量与时段的统计与分析

运用文献资料法、录像观察法、数理统计法和对比分析法,对第17—19届世界杯足球赛决赛阶段453个进球的主要特征进行统计分析和比较。揭示在当今高水平足球比赛中进球的数量与时段的规律和特征以及发展的趋势。     

Gender equality and economic complexity

This study is the first attempt to examine the influence of gender equality on economic complexity. Specifically, we investigate the effects of four aspects (employment, health, education, rights) of gender equality with 20 variables in an economic complexity index. To deal with potential endogeneity, we used the two-step system–generalized method of moments approach with an unbalanced panel of data on 119 economies from 1991 to 2017. First, labor participation in industry or service sectors as well as wage and salaried employment by women appears to improve economic complexity, while women’s employment in agriculture, contributions to family workers, self-employment, and vulnerable employment have a negative impact. Second, better health conditions for women increase economic complexity. Third, gender equality in education has a positive impact on economic complexity. Fourth, the empowerment of women in terms of socioeconomic-political rights is a positive factor for economic complexity. Overall, gender equality has great benefits for economic complexity.     

Modelling employment durations of NHL head coaches: turnover and post‐succession performance

Match‐level National Hockey League (NHL) data are used to identify factors likely to trigger the departure of a team's coach, and to measure the short‐term impact on subsequent match results. There is a statistically significant link between individual match results and the job departure hazard for up to 15 games prior to the point of departure. The hazard depends on the team's current standing within its conference relative to a pre‐season forecast, recent performance in the Stanley Cup, the coach's age and previous employment with his present team as a player. After controlling for a mean‐reversion effect, teams that changed their coach within‐season are found to perform worse subsequently than those that did not, but the negative effect is short‐lived. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of trade liberalization on firm's labour demand by skill: The case of Tunisian manufacturing

This paper investigates the impact of the trade liberalization process in Tunisia on employment by distinguishing different skills and different types of firms using micro level data covering the period of 1983–1994. There is considerable disagreement among analysts on the impact of recent trade reforms upon labour. Our contribution to these debates in this paper is essentially an empirical issue. The analysis of a Tunisian firm's data may be viewed as an attempt to apprehend how employment in Tunisia, a developing country, adjusted to the trade reforms. Using micro-level detail on individual firms, we are able to trace the relationship between changes in trade policies and manufacturing employment at firm level and by skill. Although trade reforms are generally implemented at the sector level, their effects may vary significantly across firm characteristics such as output orientation. We measure the effects of trade policy on employment according to different types of firms. We also associate changes in employment directly with a measure of change in trade protection, rather than linking them to changes in imports and exports which would be more common. The results suggest that the impact of trade liberalization on labour demand depends on a firm's characteristics. In particular, the estimates obtained suggest that trade liberalization has beneficial effects on employment for exporting-firms. Conversely, trade liberalization has negative and disciplinary effects on employment for domestically oriented firms. The reduction in tariff levels conducted in this first phase of liberalization in Tunisia seems to have had effects with different intensity on unskilled labour and on skilled labour; this justifies the examination of these two skills.     

Evaluating the dynamic employment effects of training programs in East Germany using conditional difference‐in‐differences

This study analyzes the employment effects of training in East Germany. We propose and apply an extension of the widely used conditional difference‐in‐differences estimator. Focusing on transition rates between nonemployment and employment, we take into account that employment is a state‐ and duration‐dependent process. Our results show that using transition rates is more informative than using unconditional employment rates as commonly done in the literature. Moreover, the results indicate that due to the labor market turbulence during the East German transformation process the focus on labor market dynamics is important. Training as a first participation in a program of Active Labor Market Policies shows zero to positive effects both on re‐employment probabilities and on probabilities of remaining employed with notable variation over the different start dates of the program. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The China effect: Evidence from data at firm level in Thailand

This study investigates how competition with Chinese imports affects firms in Thailand. Using World Bank data on Thailand and United Nations trade data from 2003 to 2006, the empirical results show that there is no significant impact of Chinese import competition on employment, wages, or labor income share. However, further checks show that for firms with lower productivity, the impact on employment and labor income share is more likely to be negative. The impact of Chinese import competition on profit margins is significantly positive. Considering the impact on labor income share and profit margins, we conclude that because of Chinese import competition, income distribution possibly goes in disfavor of labor. Our study shows that the impact of Chinese import competition on the skilled labor ratio is positive and significant. This result suggests that Thai firms are on the path to skill upgrading as a result of Chinese import competition, which is helpful for Thailand’s long-run economic growth. As firms with low productivity are more likely to be negatively affected by Chinese import competition, improving productivity is still an efficient way to counter such competition.     

公共投资就业效应的一个解释——基于CES生产函数的分析及其检验

本文在分析CES生产函数过程中引入劳动力市场,探讨了公共投资与就业的联系.本文认为,公共投资是通过劳动工资弹性来影响就业的.公共投资增加会引起劳动需求的工资弹性提高,而公共投资的溢出效应则会导致企业实际工资支出水平降低,两方面原因的共同作用引起就业的增长.在此分析基础上,本文用ARDL方法构建了一个多方程模型,并用中国的数据进行了检验.为提高分析的有效性,我们用SUR方法对模型做了系统估计,并进一步通过方程转化对变量的短期波动和长期均衡关系进行了探讨.实证研究发现,中国的公共投资增长在短期减少就业,但长期内对就业有显著的正效应.