Oil price shocks and Japanese macroeconomic developments

Using quarterly data for Japan over the period 1976:I–2008:II within a modelling strategy incorporating information about structural breaks in the variables included to represent the macroeconomic transmission channels, this paper shows that oil price shocks led to a fall in industrial production and higher inflation. However, these effects are only evident in the late 1970s and early 1980s. In more recent episodes of sharp oil price increases, inflationary effects are barely visible, and there is very limited evidence of oil‐induced industrial slowdowns.     

Spatial propagation of macroeconomic shocks in Europe

This paper implements a spatial vector autoregressive model that takes into account both the time and the spatial dimensions of economic shocks. We apply this framework to analyze the propagation through space and time of macroeconomic (inflation, output gap and interest rate) shocks in Europe. The empirical analysis identifies an economically and statistically significant spatial component in the transmission of macroeconomic shocks in Europe.     

The regional effects of macroeconomic shocks in China

The extent and persistence of the inequality of regional output is an important policy issue in China and its sources have been the subject of considerable empirical research. Yet we have relatively little empirical knowledge of the effects on the regional distribution of output of shocks to national macroeconomic variables such as GDP and investment. This is an important gap in the empirical literature since much government macroeconomic policy seeks to influence GDP using instruments such as investment expenditure. It is likely that such national shocks will have differential regional impacts and so affect the regional output distribution. Policy-makers need to know the sign, size and timing of such effects before making policy decisions at the national level. We simulate the effects of aggregate shocks on individual provinces' GDP within the framework of a vector autoregressive (VAR) model restricted in a manner following Lastrapes (Economics Letters, 2005). We use annual data from 1980 to 2012 to estimate the model which includes 28 of China's provinces and simulate the effects on provincial outputs of shocks to aggregate output and investment. We find great diversity of effects across the provinces with discernible geographic patterns. There is evidence that output shocks benefit coastal provinces with developed industrial structure, export-exposure and less reliance on SOEs; the opposite is found for the effects of an investment shock and we conjecture that this is likely to have been the result of the strong bias in central government investment policy in favour of the interior provinces during a substantial part of our sample period.     

Credit versus monetary theories of macroeconomic fluctuations

Summary and Conclusions It has been demonstrated that the credit theory proposition that a decrease in the supply of credit causes a decrease in aggregate demand is true only if the decrease in the supply of credit occurred for the purpose of holding additional real money balances. It has also been shown that many of the arguments put forth in favor of the credit theory are neither necessary nor sufficient for it to hold.     

Energy price shocks,monetary policy and China's economic fluctuations

This paper develops a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with energy factors to study various channels through which China's economic fluctuations are linked to energy price shocks and to search for the optimal monetary policy to cope with energy price shocks. We conclude that there are channels through which changes in energy prices will have the following cause–effect relationships. First, a rise in energy price as a negative technology shock will raise the costs of providing capital services per unit of capital, thereby reducing output. Second, a rising energy price distorts the intertemporal choices of households and firms, creating downward pressure on the expected future return on capital. Third, an energy price shock places upward pressure on the marginal costs associated with an increase in inflation. Numerical simulation results show that a positive energy price shock has a positive effect on energy technology improvements. In addition, the effects of energy price shocks can be mitigated by nominal rigidities, and interest rate rules will determine the magnitude of those effects. Using the efficient frontier method, we also show that optimal monetary policy in China should help control energy price volatility.     

New evidence on sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in sub-Saharan African countries

Following a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) approach, this paper presents new evidence on the validity of international transmission of economic shocks from key trading partners as sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. The GVAR model was estimated for 21 SSA countries grouped into three country classes—oil-rich, other-resources-rich and non-resource-based economies, to account for output shocks from crucial trading partner countries—United States, United Kingdom, China and Europe. Furthermore, the generalized forecast error variance decompositions results reveal that output shocks from key trading partners constitute significant contributors to changes in key macroeconomic indicators—real gross domestic product, inflation, exchange rate and short-term interest rate, in the SSA region. The generalized impulse response functions indicate that these economic shocks have more significant impacts on oil-rich countries than on other country groups. A key recommendation from this study is that SSA countries, especially the resource-rich economies, need to strengthen and diversify their economic structure, including the trade basket.     

Globalization,transparency and economic growth: The vulnerability of Chinese firms to macroeconomic shocks

The process of globalization encompasses economic and financial integration. The abolition of capital controls and the dismantling of barriers of different kinds will expose previously sheltered companies to shocks originating in the global economic arena. Policy-makers in already globalized countries have learned that market participants should be prepared in due time to meet the new exposure to fluctuating rates of exchange, interest and inflation. China has recently adopted a version of the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) in an effort to improve the quality of information available for risk management and for pricing of risk. This paper analyzes the gains in transparency from the implementation of IFRS in Europe as of January 2005 and reports no improvements in regard to the macroeconomic impact on firms. Based on this experience, improvements for Chinese adoption are suggested. The paper presents a framework for how to understand and measure the impact of different scenarios on corporate performance. It also elaborates on how to communicate the macroeconomic effects to external stakeholders of the firm in a way that should foster further economic growth in China.     

Intraday effects of macroeconomic shocks on the US Dollar–Euro exchange rates

This paper characterizes the intriguing features of high frequency 15-min Dollar–Euro foreign exchange returns data. The FIGARCH model is found to be the preferred specification for the long memory volatility process in the high frequency returns. This paper then examines how macroeconomic shocks affect the high frequency Dollar–Euro returns on an intraday basis. Quantifying the intraday effects of the shocks on the high frequency returns by using a linearly distributed lag dummy variable, this paper finds that the effects on the high frequency returns are generally statistically significant and that they appear to be asymmetric depending on the regions and the signs of the shocks and to be persistent for several lags even within a day. However, the macroeconomic shocks are found not to affect the long memory property in the high frequency returns implying that the linear dummy variable model may not be enough to explain the long memory property.     

A macroeconomic model of direct investment in foreign affiliates of Japanese firms

This paper analyses the operations of the Japanese multinational corporations in the world economy by constructing and estimating a Japanese foreign direct investment system. This system models the determinants of manufacturing foreign direct investment (FDI), the trade between Japan and her overseas affiliates as well as the sales of the manufacturing subsidiaries and those of the trading subsidiaries. The error-correction modelling techniques are adopted for estimation in order to capture both the short- and long-run adjustment processes. Finally, simulations are conducted on the model to analyse the effects of changes in the world economy.     

External shocks and Japanese business cycles: Evidence from a sign-restricted VAR model

This study investigates the sources of Japanese business fluctuations since the 1990s, taking into account both external shocks (e.g., risk premium and foreign demand shocks) and domestic supply and demand shocks. We use the sign-restricted VAR model based on the theoretical model to identify these shocks. The presented results show that approximately 30–50% of the forecast error variances in output can be explained by external shocks. Further, we demonstrate that supply shock is the main influencing factor in Japanese business fluctuations throughout the sample period and that the role of external shocks has been growing in the post-Lehman period, including the effect of the Great East Japan Earthquake.     

The impact of world oil price shocks on macroeconomic variables in Vietnam: the transmission through domestic oil price

This study examines the impact of world oil price shocks on macroeconomic variables in Vietnam with a focus on the transmission channel of domestic oil prices. The Structural Vector Autoregression model with two blocks of real economy variables and monetary variables is employed. The world oil price follows an autoregressive process to reflect the exogenous nature of world oil price shocks to the domestic economy. The retail domestic oil price is determined simultaneously by only the world oil price due to the government's control of the domestic oil market. Using monthly data in the period between 2009 and 2021, the study indicates that a positive shock to world oil prices will increase the domestic oil prices significantly, industrial production (slightly and only statistically significant in the third month after), and inflation (significantly in 8 months). Besides, the domestic oil price is not the only transmission channel of world oil price shocks to the economy. This result implies forecasting, assessing, and controlling the impact of the world oil price shock on the economy should focus on both domestic oil prices and other indirect channels.     

The impact of technology shocks on the Japanese business cycle—An empirical analysis based on Japanese industry data

In order to investigate the impacts of technology shocks on the recent Japanese business cycles, we construct an aggregate technological measure from industry-based data. Our approach is to estimate production function by industry, by controlling for the returns to scale factor and unobserved factor utilization. We find that positive technology shocks result in a contraction of labor input on impact. This result implies that the standard real business cycle (RBC) model is not supported and the new Keynesian model or the labor reallocation model is a candidate to explain the Japanese business cycles. From further empirical studies, we find that the labor reallocation model is plausible for explaining the Japanese business cycles.     

Social development and macroeconomic policy

We have a clear idea of what it is that South Africa needs and deserves, both now and in the future. We also all agree that in order to create the conditions which will address those needs, we will have to go without some things in the short term. Until now, we, in this House, have not agreed on what it is that we should part with for the common good ...²     

Effects of Japanese macroeconomic statistic announcements on the dollar/yen exchange rate: High-resolution picture

Using high-frequency transaction data of the actual trading platform, we examine market impact of Japanese macroeconomic statistics news within minutes of their announcements on the dollar/yen exchange rate. Macroeconomic statistics surprises that consistently have significant effect on dollar/yen returns include Tankan (business condition survey conducted by Bank of Japan), GDP, industrial production, price indices and balance of payment. The announcement itself, in addition to the magnitude of the surprise, is found to increase the number of deals and price volatility immediately after the announcement. Most effects, when significant, take place within 30 min of statistics announcements.     

Microeconomic incentives and macroeconomic decline

Zusammenfassung Mikro?konomische Anreize und makro?konomischer Niedergang.- Die neue klassische Makro?konomie behauptet, daΒ unfreiwillige Arbeitslosigkeit und Ungleichgewichte nicht vorkommen k?nnen, weil unter diesen Umst?nden Transaktionen m?glich sind, aus denen beide Seiten Vorteile ziehen k?nnen. Der Anreiz, diese Vorteile zu realisieren, sorgt dafür, daΒ der Markt st?ndig ger?umt wird. Dieser Aufsatz kehrt die Perspektive um und zeigt, daΒ gewisse Gruppen unter bestimmten Umstanden mit Hilfe von abgestimmten Verhaltensweisen, Kartellabsprachen und einer aktiven Lobby Gewinne erzielen k?nnen, die nur dann zu erreichen sind, wenn wechselseitig vorteilhafte MaΒnahmen zwischen anderen Marktteilnehmern vereitelt werden. So lassen sich Motive erkl?ren, die zu unfreiwilliger Arbeitslosigkeit, überschüssen und anderen Ungleichgewichten führen, wie sie in Rezessionsphasen besonders h?ufig sind.

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Résumé Incitations microéconomiques et déclin macroéconomique. - La nouvelle théorie macroéconomique classique argue que le chómage involontaire et le déséquilibre ne peuvent pas se passer parce que ces conditions impliquent que des transactions qui mènent aux meilleurs résultats pour les deux parties peuvent se passer. L’incitation á réaliser ces gains assure l’évacuation continuelle du marché. Cet article renverse la perspective et démontre que les gains qui en fait peuvent étre obtenus sous des conditions spéciales par quelques groupes seulement après une collusion et cartellisation ou après avoir antichambre pour des interventions gouvernementales s’ils peuvent bloquer des transactions mutuellement qui sont avantageuses pour d’autres groupes. Ainsi le motif qui mène au chómage involontaire, aux surplus et aux autres formes de déséquilibre caractéristiques pour des récessions est expliqué.

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Resumen Incentivos microecon?micos y declinación macroeconómica. - La nueva macroeconomfa clásica o de equlibrio argumenta que el desempleo involuntario y el desequilibrio no pueden ocurrir debido a que estas condiciones aseguran que transacciones que dejarian a ambas partes en mejores condiciones pueden ocurrir. El incentivo para alcanzar estas ganancias garantiza una limpieza de mercado continua. Este artfculo invierte la perspectiva y muestra que la ganancias que algunos grupos pueden obtener en ciertas circunstancias por medio de colusión, cartelizaci?n y cabildeo para algunas formas de intervention gubernamental, puede de hecho obtenerse solo si logran bloquear transacciones mutuamente ventajosas de otros. Asi se explica el motivo o incentivo que da origen al desempleo involuntario, superávits y otras formas de desequilibrio que son especialmente comunes en recesiones.

     

Reformulation empirical macroeconomic modelling

The policy implications of estimated macro-econometric systemsdepend on the formulations of their equations, the methodologyof empirical model selection and evaluation, the techniquesof policy analysis, and their forecast performance. Drawingon recent results in the theory of forecasting, we questionthe role of 'rational expectations'; criticize a common approachto testing economic theories; show that impulse-response methodsof evaluating policy are seriously flawed; and question themechanistic derivation of forecasts from econometric systems.In their place, we propose that expectations should be treatedas instrumental to agents' decisions; discuss a powerful newapproach to the empirical modelling of econometric relationships;offer viable alternatives to studying policy implications; andnote modifications to forecasting devices that can enhance theirrobustness to unanticipated structural breaks.     

Net foreign assets and macroeconomic volatility

This study analyses the co-movements of net foreign asset accumulation, consumption, real exchange rate, and real interest rate in a cross section of countries. Our sample covers both industrial and developing economies, spanning 1981–2010 period. We find that the accumulation of net foreign assets is associated with increasing consumption and real exchange rate appreciation. In a cross section of countries, when a country increases its net foreign assets to GDP ratio by a one-standard deviation, consumption to GDP increases by 0.02% per year and real exchange rate appreciates by 2% per year. Consumption to GDP responds more positively to net foreign asset accumulation in G7 countries, +0.1 to +0.2% per year, while the response is smaller and negative in developing countries reporting a −0.02% per year. The real exchange rate appreciation, however, is about +3% per year in developing countries and only about +0.2% per year in OECD countries.     

Real interest rates and macroeconomic activity

While standard discussions of the transmission mechanism ofmonetary policy tend to assume a strong and negative link betweenreal interest rates and real macroeconomic activity, and thisappears to some extent to be borne out by simulation of large-scalemacroeconometric models, the empirical evidence suggests thatthe link between real interest rates and macroeconomic aggregatessuch as consumption and investment is, in fact, somewhat tenuous.The weak link between interest rates and aggregate consumptionmay be explained at a theoretical level, while the apparentlyweak link between interest rates and investment is more puzzling,although it may be related to neglect of issues such as uncertaintyand the irreversibility of investment in empirical studies.Similarly, evidence on the link between real interest ratesand economic growth is mixed, and this may be related to non-linearitiesin the relationship. The survey highlights the need for furtherresearch in this area.     

The impact of shocks to exchange rates and oil prices on U.S. sales of American and Japanese automakers

Since 1973, floating exchange rates and significant oil-price changes have coincided with dramatic market-share gains (losses) by Japanese (American) automakers in the U.S. market. This paper analyzes and empirically estimates the extent to which exchange rate and oil price changes have contributed to this market shift. We first develop a dynamic Cournot model of long-run profit-maximizing firms that operate in a macroeconomy characterized by shocks to income, exchanges rates, oil prices, and firm-specific demands and supplies. Using the solutions for quantities sold from this model, we then construct a structural vector autoregression (VAR) to estimate and identify a reduced-form VAR. The empirical results indicate that a strong yen increases quantities sold by American automakers and decreases quantities sold by Japanese automakers; this exchange-rate effect accounts for approximately four percent of the variance of changes in monthly-sales quantity for automakers. Oil-price increases reduce the quantity of automobiles sold by American automakers, but, contrary to the common belief, have little effect on Japanese automakers; this oil-price effect accounts for 6.5 percent of the variance of changes in monthly-sales quantities for American automakers. Over the two decades we analyze, however, the real value of the dollar has almost steadily declined against the yen, and the real price of oil has ended up unchanged, so these variables cannot explain the decline (rise) of American (Japanese) automakers. Clearly, automobile sales are exposed to exchange rate, oil price, and income risk; between 10 and 20 percent of the changes in monthly-sales quantities can be explained by the macroeconomic variables that we analyze. However, we conclude that firm-specific policies probably account for the bulk of gains and losses actually experienced by the automakers.