Effective labor supply and growth outlook in China

The falling projections of working-age population in China has led to predictions of much slower economic growth. We consider three mechanisms that could contribute to higher effective labor supply growth: further improvement in educational attainment due to cohort replacement and rising college enrollment; improvement in aggregate labor quality due to urbanization; and higher labor force participation due to later retirement. We find that these factors result in a projected growth rate of effective labor input of 0.40% for 2015−2030 compared to −0.60% for working age population. As a result, the projected growth rate of GDP will be 5.80% for 2015–2030 compared to 5.23% if these factors are ignored.     

The impact of demographic change on tax revenue

This paper stimulates the impact of demographic change on direct tax revenue for the Netherlands using extensive survey data and population projections. Projected demographic development in the Netherlands fits in well with the OECD mainstream. The analysis thus has a more general relevance. The simulations indicate a 27 percent rise in tax revenue until 2010 because of population growth and a relatively older labor force. After 2030, revenue falls as a consequence of a declining population and a rapidly rising share of the elderly. The authors also simulated a variant in which labor-force participation rates are set on the substantially higher OECD average. In this case, the increase in tax revenue almost doubles as compared to the base variant.     

2000～2010年中国农业剩余劳动力的数量分析

本文通过农业技术需求法和中国农业生产实际估算了2000～2010年农业剩余劳动力数量。结果表明,2000～2010年中国农村有待转移的剩余劳动力数量呈上升、后逐年快速下降的趋势,到2010年,下降至6820.92万。此外,本文将从年龄结构和文化结构两个角度就待转移农业剩余劳动力素质进行了分析。最后,本文对如何更加有效地转移和利用农业剩余劳动力提出了政策建议。     

Russia’s energy systems: Opportunities and prospects

The paper considers macroeconomic forecasts of the performance of Russia’s Fuel and Energy Complex (FEC) up to 2030–2040 based on projections of economic development (worked out at the Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences), predictive assessments of the economic aspects of the production of major fuel types, Russia’s involvement in meeting the world’s demand for oil and gas, and the progress in the development of new energy sources. It is demonstrated that, according to the expected demand for energy carriers and the proposed changes in the FEC structure and technological base, carbon dioxide emissions by FEC facilities in the considered term will not exceed the 1990 level recorded in the Kyoto Protocol. It is shown that the annual volume of investment in the energy industry by 2030 should be at least double the level of the 2000–2010 requirements and by 2040 it is expected to increase by another 15–20%.     

Females,the elderly,and also males: Demographic aging and macroeconomy in Japan

The speed and magnitude of ongoing demographic aging in Japan are unprecedented. A rapid decline in the labor force and a rising fiscal burden to finance social security expenditures could hamper growth over a prolonged period. We build a dynamic general equilibrium model populated by overlapping generations of males and females who differ in participation rate, employment type and labor productivity as well as life expectancy. We study how changes in the labor market over the coming decades will affect the transition path of the economy and fiscal situation of Japan. We find that a rise in the labor supply of females and the elderly of both genders in an extensive margin and in labor productivity can significantly mitigate effects of demographic aging on the macroeconomy and reduce fiscal pressures, despite their negative effects on equilibrium wages during the transition. The study suggests that a combination of policies that remove obstacles hindering labor supply and that enhance a more efficient allocation of male and female workers of all age groups will be critical to keeping government deficit under control and raising income across the nation.     

山东农村劳动力转移及影响因素分析

利用1978—2021年山东省统计年鉴数据，运用灰色预测模型与主成分分析法对山东省农村劳动力转移潜力进行预测并分析其影响因素。结果表明，山东省农村劳动力转移人数呈逐年下降趋势，预计到2030年农村劳动力将完成转移，但在2030年之前，农村剩余劳动力仍有潜力可挖。因此，需要从提高农村劳动力自身素质、规范劳动力就业市场、发展农业现代化、发挥好政府指导帮扶作用4个方面挖掘农村劳动力转移潜力，实现山东省经济社会高质量发展。     

Labour force and changing age structure in selected developed countries: a comparative study

The authors examine the effects of demographic aging and the changing age structure on the labor force in the United States, Canada, and Japan over the period from 1950 to 1980. They find that "the changing age structure and population aging have generally had a favorable effect on the proportion of labour force or crude labour force rate.... The remarkable feature was the rate effect of the female labour force, which was positive and often substantially reinforced the positive age effect.... The proportion of the female labour force soared during the 1960s and 1970s in these countries, and a dramatic convergence of male and female labour force participation rates took place."     

The aggregate gains of eliminating gender and ethnic gaps in the Malaysian labor market

We use microdata to calculate the gains of eliminating gender and ethnic labor market gaps in Malaysia for the period 2010–2017. We document significant gaps in terms of participation in the labor market and entrepreneurship, distinguishing between employers and self-employed. Female-male ratios are 64% for labor market participation, 82% for self-employment, and 32% for being employers. Across different age and ethnic groups, gender gaps in labor force participation are particularly pronounced for older workers and in entrepreneurship for Chinese workers. Our results indicate substantial income gains if gender and ethnic gaps were eliminated. Eliminating the entrepreneurship gender gaps increases income per capita by 6.54% in the long run. When we also include the employment gender gap, the long-run gains are 26.18%. The elimination of ethnic gaps could in the long run result in a smaller but still sizeable increase in income per capita of 11.5%.     

The determinants and long-term projections of saving rates in Developing Asia

In this paper, we present data on trends over time in domestic saving rates in twelve economies in Developing Asia during the 1966–2007 period and analyze the determinants of these trends. We find that domestic saving rates in Developing Asia have, in general, been high and rising but that there have been substantial differences from economy to economy, that the main determinants of these trends appear to have been the age structure of the population (especially the aged dependency ratio), income levels, and the level of financial sector development, and that the impacts of income levels and the level of financial sector development have been nonlinear (convex and concave, respectively). We then project future trends in domestic saving rates in Developing Asia for the 2011–2030 period based on our estimation results and find that the domestic saving rate in Developing Asia as a whole will remain roughly constant during the next two decades despite rapid population aging in some economies in Developing Asia because population aging will occur much later in other economies and because the negative impact of population aging on the domestic saving rate will be largely offset by the positive impact of higher income levels.     

Total factor productivity growth for 12 Asian economies: The past and the future

This study examines the importance of TFP growth in the long-term past and future economic growth of 12 Asian economies. We analyze the pattern of past growth based on a calculation of TFP growth, investigate the TFP dynamics by estimations of a TFP growth model, decompose the factors affecting TFP growth, and offer long-term projections of TFP growth. The main findings are as follows. First, results suggest that the growth accounting paradigm has shifted in the recent decade toward a productivity-based growth paradigm. Second, the catch-up effect is the major source of TFP growth in past decades, and the human capital contribution to TFP growth is gradually rising in Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan in the most recent decade but is stagnated or weakened for other Asian economies. Third, the results project strong TFP growth for the two subperiods of 2010–2020 and 2020–2030 and thus suggest that the productivity-based growth will continue in the future long-term growth of the Asian economies.     

The determinants of tax morale in Pakistan

This paper examines the determinants of tax morale in Pakistan, a country that has struggled with low tax effort over the past decade. We exploit novel data for individual taxpayers collected in 2014 by Pakistan’s Federal Board of Revenue to estimate a binary probit regression model. Our results are generally in line with the findings of the modern empirical literature on tax morale in other countries. Overall, groups with lower labor force participation show more positive attitudes toward tax compliance. Educated respondents exhibit higher tax morale than the illiterate, but only for those with very low or very high educational attainment is tax morale higher than for those with bachelor’s degrees. Tax morale is highest in major industrialized population centers that serve as seats of government. Females show generally higher tax morale than males, however, their attitudes tend to worsen with age to such an extent that elderly females have lower tax morale than elderly males. Our findings on gender suggest potential gains from increasing female labor force participation rates. More generally, addressing the current failures of tax administration and dealing with horizontal inequity arising from administrative weaknesses may contribute materially to improving voluntary compliance.     

Official Development Assistance and Foreign Direct Investment Flows to Sub‐Saharan Africa

Abstract: Foreign direct investment is believed to have a positive impact on the economies of the developing countries but its determinants are not yet fully established. This paper empirically investigates the relationship between official development assistances and foreign direct investment flows using panel data from 11 sub‐Saharan African countries for the period 1990–2003. The results show that bilateral official development assistance has a significant and positive influence on foreign direct investment flows. The results also show that trade openness, growth rate in the labor force, and exchange rates have a positive and significant effect on foreign direct investment flows. But multilateral development assistance, the growth rate in GDP per capita, the country's composite risk level, and the index for political freedom and civil liberties do not have a statistically significant effect on foreign direct investment flows. The policy implication of the positive and significant influence of the bilateral official development assistance on foreign direct investment is that the recipient countries need to formulate policies that improve their economic relationships with the donor countries in order to attract greater foreign direct investment flows from the multilateral corporations located in these countries.     

Output and Productivity Performance of Hong Kong and Singapore's Transport and Communications Sector, 1990 to 2005*

This paper uses the industry of origin approach to analyze value added and labor productivity outcomes arising from progressive liberalization of government and from statutory board control of transport and communications in Singapore. The paper compares these outcomes with those from the market‐orientated, more privatized transport and communications sector in Hong Kong, for the benchmark year 2004 and a review period from 1990 to 2005. The study is among the first to carefully compare labor productivity in specific sectors between the two countries. Although Singapore generally recorded higher levels of labor productivity, there was some catch‐up by Hong Kong in the later part of the review period. There was also substantial variation in labor productivity performance within sectoral branches in the two sectors. The study suggests there is some evidence that the different political–economic structures and policy approaches to deregulation and liberalization played a role in determining productivity performance in the transport and communications sectors in Singapore and Hong Kong. The analysis infers a potential, increasing focus on privatization as the driving force for further liberalization of the transport and communications sector in Singapore.     

Export Activity,Firm Size and Wage Structure: Evidence from Taiwanese Manufacturing Firms*

This study adopts a semiparametric smooth coefficient model to evaluate the export–wage premiums, firm size–wage premiums, and the wage gap between skilled and unskilled labor. Particular focus is placed upon widespread evidence indicating that pay levels in ‘large’ and ‘export‐oriented’ firms are higher than in their ‘small’ and ‘domestic‐oriented’ counterparts. Applying the firm‐level data for Taiwanese manufacturing firms, we find a positive export–wage premium for skilled workers and a negative export–wage premium for unskilled workers. The hypothesis of a constant export premium across firm size is rejected. While most of the export–wage premiums for skilled labor can be attributed to the small and medium firms, the large exporting firms have a significant adverse effect on wages for unskilled labor. Moreover, our results suggest that the firm size–wage premiums for skilled workers are larger than those for unskilled workers. The wage gap between the two skill groups is also sensitive to size categories.     

构建新一轮西部大开发中的大开放格局

西部大开发是我国促进区域经济均衡发展的重大决策。2010年至2030年将是西部的加速发展阶段。大开放格局的形成将是其重要特征之一。近年来,西部对外经济各项指标增速明显高于东部地区,但其对外经济总量仍偏低。本文认为较低的对外经贸依存度,一方面说明西部未来的开放大有可为,另一方面也将促进中国的经济结构趋向合理。西部大开放格局的构建,将出现城市化与工业化同步的特征,也将以更广阔的视野,在更为完善的政策制度下,探索对内对外协同开放之路。     

The changing age distribution in Indonesia and some consequences

"Beginning with a discussion of the sources and quality of Indonesian age data by sex, this paper examines the changes in the functional age groups of the population of Indonesia from 1971 to the year 2005, and the implications of these changes for education, labour force participation, dependency ratios and fertility. Data for the period 1971 to 1985 are based on actual enumerations, while those for the period 1990 to 2005 are based on projections. Although the provisional totals of the 1990 Census had been released before the publication of this paper, their breakdown by age was still not available. The functional age categories discussed in the paper include the pre-school years, the primary and intermediate school ages, the teenage years, the reproductive ages of women, the principal working ages and the post-work years. It concludes with a discussion of various policy and planning implications of these changes."     

Using capabilities to project growth, 2010–2030

We forecast average annual GDP growth for 147 countries for 2010–2030. We use a cross-country regression model where the long-run fundamentals are determined by the countries’ accumulated capabilities and the capacity to undergo structural transformation.     

Unemployment and labor force participation in urban China

This paper serves to document and analyze the employment and the labor market changes in urban China since the late 1980s. High and sustained GDP growth rates in China have paradoxically been accompanied by increasing unemployment rates and decreasing labor force participation rates. Using national representative micro data, estimations from logit models show that age, education, communist-party membership and marital status are significantly associated with participation in the labor force and employment opportunities, and the impacts of education and party membership have increased over time. An extension of the Blinder–Oaxaca decomposition finds little of the observed male–female differentials attributable to differences in characteristics such as age or education but to coefficient effects, a possible reflection of discrimination.     

中国用工荒演变轨迹研究

文章对1979—2010年中国四大地区的劳动力就业数据,采用生物系统论研究方法,将地区劳动力视为复杂系统,对中国四大地区内外劳动力格局演变进行估计,从而深入讨论用工荒根源及演变轨迹。结果发现:劳动力就业自然增长率与人口自然增长率间有内在规律——23定律,这一定律是中国用工荒到来的根源,它决定中国东部、东北、中部、西部将先后于2014、2020、2025、2027年进入用工荒;东部用工荒是紧随劳动力自然就业繁荣期之后,而东北、中部和西部则是劳动力自然繁荣期后经历较长的潜伏期才进入用工荒。     

An Examination of Labor Productivity Growth and Structural Changes in the Singapore Labor Force*

This paper ?rst examines the sources of growth in the Singapore economy by decomposing real per capita gross domestic product (GDP) growth into two components. It is found that, for the period 1974–1999, labor productivity was a signi?cant source of economic growth in Singapore. Conversely, the contribution of the rate of change in employment ratio was only of secondary importance. On further decomposition, the rate of change in employment ratio was due mainly to rate of change in population age‐structure ratio and rate of change in labor‐force participation rate. Growth patterns of the labor force were examined after it has been segregated according to gender, citizenship and age group independently. Labor productivity growth was highest in the transport, storage and communication sector, while labor productivity growth was lowest in the ?nancial, insurance, real estate and business services sector.