Interindustry effects of productivity growth in Japan: 1960–2000

Combining conventional sectoral growth accounting and the static open input–output price model, we analyze the sources of growth of product prices in Japan during the period 1960–2000. Using the input–output framework, we take into account not only the effects of factor costs and productivity within a sector, but also their impacts outside of the sector. We find that Japan's deflation in the 1990s was characterized by low growth of wage rates, low productivity growth, and a low rate of return on capital. Until 1990, productivity improvements compensated for factor cost pressures on output price, especially the rapid growth of labor cost. In contrast, during the 1990s, decreasing rates of return on capital, not productivity improvements, canceled out the inflationary effect of wage growth. J. Japanese Int. Economies 19 (4) (2005) 568–585.     

基于技能偏向性技术进步的经济增长动能分解

在传统Solow增长核算框架基础上引入异质性劳动投入以及技能偏向性技术进步,从而将经济增长分解为固定资本投入增长、劳动投入增长、技能结构深化、技能偏向性技术进步、中性技术进步及效率改进等五种动能。研究发现：第一,中国经济增长主要由固定资本投入以及全要素生产率增长共同驱动,其中资本投入对经济增长年均贡献率为61.64%,全要素生产率增长的年均贡献率则为35.66%,中国区别于其他中低收入国家的发展奇迹背后正是较快的全要素生产率增长;第二,即使对于高收入国家而言,资本投入仍然是主要的经济增长动能;第三,技能结构深化以及技能偏向性技术进步是全要素生产率的主要来源,二者对中国经济增长的年均贡献率分别为32.04%和21.27%;第四,资源配置效率变化是引起全要素生产率波动的主要因素,资源配置效率下降是导致2008年后中国以及大部分高收入国家全要素生产率增速放缓的主要原因。     

Imperfect Competition, Economic Miracle, and Manufacturing Productivity Growth: Empirical Evidence from Taiwan

Several recent studies on total factor productivity (TFP) concluded that the East Asian economies benefited little from TFP growth. This study claims that the failure by previous studies to consider the effect of net indirect taxes and market imperfections resulted in the underestimation of the share of the contribution of labor input to factor income, which consequently led to the overestimation of capital share and understatement of TFP growth. Therefore, this study has modified the conventional approach of calculating factor shares by taking account of net indirect taxes and market imperfections and used the modified approach to estimate TFP growth in 16 Taiwanese manufacturing industries during the period 1979–1999. The conclusion drawn by the study is that TFP growth was the driving force behind the success of Taiwan's manufacturing industries, although many of these industries experienced a sharp decline in TFP during the 1990s.     

Call For Papers: The Eighth International Convention of the East Asian Economic Association

This paper provides empirical estimates of total factor productivity (TFP) trends in a sample of 17 APEC countries over the period 1975 to 1996. TFP growth is an important measure of an economy's performance and if measured correctly it can provide valuable guidance on issues related to the assessment of sustainable growth trends. We use the Malmquist index to measure TFP growth and decompose it into an efficiency change and a technical change component. This decomposition provides extra insight on assessing sustainable growth trends. The measurement technique itself is regarded as a significant improvement over previous conventional measures of TFP growth. The results are very interesting. Japan, Thailand and primarily Indonesia and Malaysia are identified as countries exhibiting on average negative TFP growth rates in the 1975-1990 period. In all these countries as well as in South Korea and Taiwan the main cause of low TFP growth is a poor (negative) efficiency record. The average TFP growth rate for Japan and Malaysia is positive in the 1975-1996 period but the efficiency change component remains negative. In all these countries the main contributor to labour productivity growth is capital accumulation. Unlike previous studies we find no evidence of a poor TFP growth performance for Singapore. Furthermore, we estimate that most of Singapore's labour productivity growth is driven by efficiency change. Estimates of rates of convergence towards the frontier economy that is estimated (not assumed as in other studies) to be the US, are also reported.     

THE ROLE OF HUMAN CAPITAL IN CHINA'S TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH: A CROSS‐PROVINCE ANALYSIS

This paper studies the role of human capital in China's provincial total factor productivity (TFP) growth over 1985–2004. The stochastic frontier approach is employed to measure the productivity growth of Chinese provinces. Human capital is measured both qualitatively and quantitatively. In particular, enrolment rates at various levels of schooling are used to represent human capital composition. After controlling for endogeneity, we find that human capital has significant and positive effects on the TFP growth of Chinese provinces. However, when education quality is incorporated, productivity growth appears to be significantly enhanced by quality improvements in primary education only. Regional impacts of human capital are found to differ at various levels of schooling. In the eastern region of China, productivity growth is significantly associated with secondary education. TFP growth in the central region is mainly promoted by primary and university education. Yet in the western region, primary education plays the most prominent role.     

Robust Monetary Framework for China

I. Introduction China has made tremendous gains in terms of economic growth in the last 15 years, by inviting foreign direct investment and increasing manufacturing production and exports. The currency unification (devaluation of the official rate and unification of the official and market rates) in 1994 also contributed to the efficiency in the monetary and foreign exchange systems. China was not severely affected by the Asian currency crisis of 1997–1998, and instead China helped the regio…     

Consumer confidence and economic stagnation in Japan

This paper examines whether self-fulfilling expectations could have been the cause of the economic stagnation experienced by Japan in the 1990s. A real business cycle model with indeterminacy of equilibria and variable capital utilization is used to simulate the economy of Japan. Driven solely by expectation shocks, the model can replicate the economic bubble that occurred in the late 1980s and the prolonged slowdown that occurred in the 1990s. These results suggest that expectations should not be excluded as a possible source of Japan's recent economic difficulties.     

The Impact of Economic Reform on Productivity Growth in Chinese Industry: A Case of Xiamen Special Economic Zone

China's industrial and trade reforms were expected to stimulate growth in output and welfare by increasing the capacity of industry to absorb surplus factors of production, and by utilizing labour, capital, energy and materials more efficiently. The impact of the special economic zone reform policies on productivity and growth is assessed by studies of China's overall industrial sector performance and case studies in Xiamen and Shanghai Beijing, which is not subject to special policy initiatives, is used as a control. Although there were data limitations, several conclusions may be drawn. An increase in total factor productivity was found to have occurred in Xiamen during the reform period, but the creation of the special economic zone does not appear to have had a significant impact on productivity. Productivity performance in Beijing's state-owned industry was considerably poorer than that of total Xiamen industry, including state, collective and firms jointly owned with foreign investors, and was also lower than the productivity performance of Xiamen's state sector. The productivity performance of Xiamen's joint ventures and collectively owned firms was, however, considerably superior to the state sectors in both cities. Due to data constraints, the analysis of productivity in Shanghai was for a shorter period. Most of Shanghai's state-owned industry did better than the state-owned sector in Beijing but did not perform as well as the non-State sector in Xiamen over this period. Factor productivity in Shanghai industry was stagnant, Beijing's industrial productivity generally declined, but Xiamen's productivity improved considerably over the decade. One of the major strengths of this study is its access to new and more accurate disaggregated price indices to deflate capital investments on an industry by industry basis. Hence, the availability of the new capital stock deflator series should improve the total factor productivity estimates considerably.     

Causes and Remedies of the Japan's Long‐lasting Recession: Lessons for China

Japan has suffered from sluggish economic growth and recession since the early 1990s. In this paper, we analyze the causes of the prolonged slowdown of the Japanese economy (the lost decade). Economics Nobel laureate Paul Krugman has argued that Japan's lost decade is an example of a liquidity trap. However, our empirical analysis shows that stagnation of the Japanese economy comes from its vertical IS curve rather than a horizontal LM curve, so the Japanese economy has been facing structural problems rather than a temporary downturn. The vertical IS curve is caused by an insensitivity of investment to a lower interest rate partly because of the decline of sales due to the aging population and firms not wanting to invest. The structural problems come from the aging demographic, which is often neglected by scholars and policy‐makers, and also from the allocation of transfers from the central government to local governments, and the unwillingness of Japanese banks to lend money to startup businesses and small and medium enterprises (SMEs), mainly because of Basel capital requirements. Many countries, like China, are expected to face similar issues, particularly given the aging population. The present paper will address why the Japanese economy has been trapped in a prolonged slowdown and provide some remedies for revitalizing the economy.     

中国经济增长来源实证研究-基于扩展的索洛模型

依据新古典经济增长理论,建立扩展的索洛模型,对物质资本、人力资本以及全要素生产率对中国经济增长的贡献进行实证分析,得出人力资本对我国经济增长的贡献度大于物质资本,以技术进步为代表的全要素生产率增长呈现阶段性特征,是转型期经济可持续增长源动力的结论。     

国际技术溢出与我国生产率的变化：基于FDI和进口渠道的研究

本文利用1990—2007年的省际面板数据,在测算我国省际全要素生产率及其变化的基础上,分析了基于FDI和进口渠道的国际技术溢出对我国全要素生产率的影响。研究表明,通过外商直接投资和进口的技术溢出均显著地促进了我国生产率的增长,但随着FDI和进口额的增加,其对生产率增长的促进作用是递减的。人力资本对提高生产率,加快生产率增长速度均具有显著的促进作用。本文最后提出了相应的政策建议。     

Total Factor Productivity of the Japanese Rice Industry

We calculate partial factor productivity and total factor productivity (TFP) indices for rice production using panel data across 42 Japanese prefectures from 1996 to 2006, and perform panel unit root tests of TFP convergence across prefectures. We find that during this period, the partial factor productivity growth rates for capital, land and materials stagnated at the aggregate national level, as did the TFP growth rate, despite a large increase in labor productivity. We also identify evidence of a convergence in TFP across Japanese prefectures.     

The Effects of Operating and Capital Subsidies on Total Factor Productivity: A Decomposition Approach

Past studies relied on ad hoc associations to establish relationships between productivity on one hand and operating and capital subsidies on the other. This article deviates from these studies. It builds on recent research based on private cost to derive a total factor productivity formula that includes subsidy effects. It specifies an empirical model to estimate the required parameters to apply the formula. The application to urban transit systems shows that the effects of these subsidies on productivity through technical change reinforce the decline in productivity.     

技术进步促进云南经济增长了吗？

基于索洛增长模型,测度了1978-2013年云南省全要素生产率及对经济增长的贡献率。研究发现,云南省全要素生产率波动较大,呈现先急剧上升后平稳下降的态势。技术进步对经济增长的贡献远远低于同期全国平均水平,经济增长仍处于依赖资本与资源投入推动的粗放型、外延扩大式增长。     

Exchange Rate Regime,Financial Market Bubbles and Long‐term Growth in China: Lessons from Japan

Since 2014, capital inflows into China have turned into capital outflows, reversing the gradual appreciation path of the renminbi against the US dollar into an erratic depreciation path. The paper explains the current capital outflows by comparing China and Japan with respect to the impact of exchange rate expectations on speculative capital flows. It is argued that both in China and Japan, given benign liquidity conditions in the USA, policy‐induced appreciation expectations have generated capital inflows that have contributed to overinvestment and financial market bubbles. The current reversal of capital flows is seen as a signal that the bubble in China has burst. To stabilize growth in China and to discourage speculative capital outflows a fixed exchange rate to the dollar is recommended. Given Japan's experience and given that China's foreign assets remain high, the depreciation pressure on the Chinese renminbi can be expected to abate.     

Understanding the decline in Japan's saving rate in the new millennium

The decline in Japan's household saving rate accelerated sharply after the domestic banking crisis in 1997/98, but then decelerated again from around 2004/05. Such nonlinear movement in the saving rate cannot be explained by the monotonic trend of population aging alone. First, we statistically confirm the existence of such nonlinearity in aggregate data. Second, extending the life-cycle and the permanent income hypothesis (LCPIH), we exhibit that a significant decline in household income growth in the late 1990s and early 2000s plays a major role in creating the sharp saving rate decline in the same period. Third, using income and consumption data from the Family Income and Expenditure Survey, it is shown that different saving rate variations of different age groups, responding to heterogeneous income shocks, have contributed to generating the recent aggregate saving rate fluctuations. In particular, the income slow down in early 2000s of older working households provide a major contribution to aggregate saving rate decline.     

Japan's inflation under the Bretton Woods system: How large was the Balassa–Samuelson effect?

Japan's real exchange rate appreciation during the post-WWII manufacturing-led growth period has been regarded as a classical example of the Balassa–Samuelson effect. We choose the most conspicuous sub-period—1956–1970—to confirm the effect. Japan was in a rapid growth period under the U.S. dollar peg (real GDP growth, 9.7% per annum). The nominal anchor was weak as Japan's inflation rate (GDP deflator-based, 5.4%) was markedly higher than the U.S. rate (2.6%) during the 15-year period. The decomposition of the annual 2.7% (geometric) Japan–U.S. inflation rate gap (real exchange rate appreciation of the Japanese yen) reveals that the Balassa–Samuelson effect accounted for 0.7%; most of the real exchange rate appreciation (1.7%) was attributed to greater price increases in Japan's tradables. Although Japan's tradable sector achieved high TFP growth, the joint effect of the tradable–nontradable TFP growth difference between the two economies was too small to generate a sizable Balassa–Samuelson effect. Japan's example may suggest that even in rapidly growing economies, the magnitude of the effect in long-run real exchange rate appreciation is generally modest.     

中国金融开放与高质量发展——以全要素生产率为视角

本文通过建立计量回归模型,对中国1991—2017期间的全要素生产率与金融开放等进行了实证回归分析。计量实证回归分析结果显示,金融开放、金融发展、研发支出、人力资本、外商直接投资、出口等因素,均对全要素生产率有着正向的促进作用。金融开放不仅可以为一国提供所需的资金,而且还可以提供资金、技术以及管理经验等对高质量发展不可或缺的因素。对于我们这样一个处在转型升级阶段的大国来说,我们需要加大金融开放的力度,从而促进我国的高质量发展。     

An Empirical Analysis of Provincial Productivity in China (1979–2001)

This study estimates and analyzes provincial productivity growth in China for the period 1979–2001. The Malmquist Index approach allows us to decompose productivity growth into two components, technological progress and efficiency change. Considerable productivity growth was found for most of the data period, but it was accomplished mainly through technological progress rather than efficiency improvement. Although China's capital stock has accumulated at record speed in recent years, our findings show that TFP growth slowed down significantly during 1995–2001. The study thus raises serious questions about whether China's recent growth pattern is consistent with its comparative advantages, and whether its reliance on capital accumulation can be sustained in the long run.     

结构性减速视角下中国全要素生产率的实证研究

在中国经济增长速度下降的背景下,运用共同边界-两期权重修正罗素模型,对中国第二、三产业2004-2016年30个省份一位码分行业、典型省份广东省二位码细分行业全要素生产率进行实证分析。考虑到地区和行业的异质性,从多个层次、多个维度对中国第二、三产业全要素生产率进行对比分析,并检验"结构性减速"是否适用于当前中国经济。研究显示：第三产业全要素生产率增长均高于第二产业,这表明"结构性减速"是此轮中国经济增速下降的原因的看法并不成立。但在研究期间中国第二、三产业的全要素生产率均呈负增长,这说明中国经济增速下降的真正原因在于中国两大支柱性产业的全要素生产率对经济增长的贡献率下降。同时发现近年来各行业全要素生产率的增长率有上升趋势,这意味着中国经济正在从"中高速增长"向"高质量发展"转变。