Most-favoured-nation treaty in service of trade? Case: early trade policy relations between Finland and Japan and their impact on the sales networks of the Finnish forest industry

This article scrutinises the significance of the most-favoured-nation (MFN) treaty in promoting the development of commercial activity and its results in transnational trade. As cardinal agents of trade policy, governments act as ‘umpires’ in formulating and guarding the rules of international trade, while the ‘players’ are private corporations which conduct commercial operations in the playing field of international trade. Within the framework of Finno-Japanese trade relations, the players established and developed their trade networks (corporate interconnections) regardless of the umpires and their official rules, meaning the commercial treaties. Through a close examination of the early trade policy relations between Finland and Japan along with the formation and development of the Finnish forest industry’s sales networks into the Japanese market in the early twentieth century, this study demonstrates that there was no explicit causal connection between MFN treaties and the evolution of the Finnish forest industry’s export efforts – and their results.     

Living standards and the life cycle: reconstructing household income and consumption in the early twentieth-century Netherlands†

Conventional methods of measuring historical household living standards are often criticized because of the omission of women's and children's wages and non-wage income; the focus on urban centres; and the exclusion of life-cycle changes in household composition, income, and consumption. This article presents a method that accounts for these issues and applies it to agricultural and textile households in the early-twentieth century Netherlands. It uses total household income, as opposed to the husband's wage, as the enumerator for calculating alternative welfare ratios. The results show that welfare ratios were not only structurally higher than those based on the male-breadwinner model, but also followed a different life-cycle trajectory. Furthermore, household portfolios were diversified and depended on local labour market structures. Thus, the study concludes that analyses based on men's wages only reflect the rough outlines of how households functioned.     

Sewers,wastewater and newspapers: the early environmental debate on water pollution in Turku,Finland, 1887–1934

Abstract

A century ago, city dwellers became increasingly aware of urban environmental problems caused by the waste products of industry and the growing population. Like elsewhere in Europe, water pollution became an acute issue also in the city of Turku, in south west Finland, The sewer system built after 1895 discharged all the municipal and rapidly increasing industrial wastewater untreated into the River Aura in the centre of the city, As a result, the quality of the river water worsened rapidly, and the first complaint on this was published in the local newspaper in 1899. In this study we document the press debate on river water quality and wastewater problems in the local newspapers of Turku for the period from 1887 to 1934, when the plan for a wastewater treatment plant was finally completed (the plant was, however, not built until 1966). The failure of the city administrators to present any solution to the river pollution problem caused the first major public environmental debate in the city at the turn of the 20^th century. Our results show that (1) sewers were recognized by newspapers as the primary cause of worsened river water quality, (2) the necessity of a wastewater treatment plant was understood long before the actual plan was drawn up, (3) the local industries were hardly ever criticized in public for water pollution, and (4) the initiative for improvements was considered to be the responsibility of the city administrators. The debate in the local press was often hectic, many decades before the 1960s, when the environmental debate is commonly said to have started.     

Bridging the Gap between ‘Joe Sixpack’ and ‘Bill Gates’: On the Efficiency of Institutions for Redistribution

All democracies have implemented institutions that redistribute income from the rich to the poor. Economists tend to have strong views on how this redistribution should be organized, based on the two theorems of welfare economics. However, these views are mostly neglected. I argue that the reason for this neglect is likely to be that these institutions are constrained Pareto-efficient after a century of experimentation. If not, some political bargaining would lead to the implementation of the Pareto-improvement. Hence, economists should concentrate on an explanation of the constrained efficiency of existing institutions instead of on the design of drawing table grand reforms. This approach is applied to three institutions frequently observed in reality: minimum wages, education subsidies, and unemployment insurance. We show that these institutions for redistribution are likely to be constrained efficient. We analyze the impact of the constitutional environment on the implementation of efficient redistribution. Finally, we evaluate the causes for the observed cross-country variation in redistribution.     

U.S.–Japan and U.S.–China trade conflict: Export growth,reciprocity, and the international trading system

First Japan and more recently China have pursued export-oriented growth strategies. While other Asian countries have done likewise, Japan and China are of particular interest because their economies are so large and the size of the associated bilateral trade imbalances with the United States so conspicuous. In this paper we focus on U.S. efforts to restore the reciprocal GATT/WTO market-access bargain in the face of such large imbalances and the significant spillovers to the international trading system. The paper highlights similarities and differences in the two cases. We describe U.S. attempts to reduce the bilateral imbalances through targeted trade policies intended to slow growth of U.S. imports from these countries or increase growth of U.S. exports to them. We then examine how these trade policy responses, as well as U.S. efforts to address what were perceived as underlying causes of the imbalances, influenced the evolution of the international trading system. Finally, we compare the macroeconomic conditions associated with the bilateral trade imbalances and their implications for the conclusions of the two episodes.     

On the difference between the keynesian,knightian and the ‘classical’ analysis of uncertainty and the development of a more general monetary theory

Summary In this article it is shown that Keynes concept of uncertainty is not identical with that of Knight, as is often argued. The identification of Keynesian with Knightian uncertainty has contributed to the neglect of an aspect of Keynesian uncertainty that is important in understanding the functioning of a monetary economy. Therefore, it is concluded that monetary theory can benefit from the development of an analytical apparatus that incorporates all aspects of Keynesian uncertainty.I am indebted to Mr. J. de Haan, Professor J.A. Kregel, Professor S.K. Kuipers, Professor J. Pen, Dr. J. Snippe and Mr. A. van Witteloostuijn for their comments on an earlier version of this paper. It goes without saying that they cannot be blamed for any remaining errors.     

Changes in women’s empowerment in the household,women’s diet diversity,and their relationship against the background of COVID-19 in southern Bangladesh

The COVID-19 pandemic in Bangladesh, associated public health measures, and people’s reactions were projected to have caused job losses among women, a decline in women’s empowerment and reduced women’s diet diversity. Using a November 2020 telephone survey to re-interview adult female respondents of a November 2019 in-person survey, contrary to expectations we find that more women found than lost jobs, and women’s diet diversity increased over the year partly marked by the COVID-19 pandemic. We did not find evidence of a decline in women’s involvement in food purchase decisions, nor women’s autonomy over use of household income. The change in women’s outside employment is neither statistically related to changes in women’s involvement in food purchase decisions, changes women’s autonomy over use of household income, nor changes in women’s diet diversity. Change in women’s involvement in food purchase decisions is positively related with change in women’s diet diversity and change in women’s autonomy over income use is negatively related with change in women’s diet diversity.     

‘Los von London’: A comparative,empirical analysis of German and British global foreign banking and trade development, 1881–1913

The role of finance in the development of trade draws increasing attention from economists and economic historians. Yet empirical studies, especially from an historical perspective, continue to be scarce. This study analyses the role of German and British foreign banks in the internationalisation of trade during the first globalisation. It creates a novel data set on the bilateral trade of Germany and Great Britain with the rest of the world and the number and geographical distribution of German and British foreign banks between 1881 and 1913. Using an augmented gravity model of trade, the article shows that banks had a significant positive impact on exports and imports and that this effect was even more pronounced in case of German banks and trade. Moreover, the effect of German banks on trade is the highest in the years closer to bank entry, supporting the idea of German banks being initiators of trade. In contrast, the effect of British banks seems constant over time.     

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: assessment of the humanitarian,economic, and financial impact in the short and medium term

What are the economic effects of the Ukraine war for Ukraine, Russia, and the rest of Europe? In this study, the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) sheds light on the immediate consequences on the one hand, but also on the medium-term structural changes caused by the largest armed conflict in Europe since the Second World War. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has triggered a humanitarian crisis. Pre-war, almost 19 m people lived in those regions that are currently directly affected. Refugee inflows to the rest of Europe are likely to be at least three times greater than in 2015/2016. As Black Sea ports come under Russian assault, Ukraine has lost its ability to sell more than half of its exports, primarily agricultural commodities and metals. Western financial support will become ever more important as the war continues. Turning to Russia, sanctions will have a very serious impact on that country’s economy and financial sector. Despite being partly hamstrung by the fact that a large proportion of Russian reserve assets are frozen in the EU and G7, the central bank managed to stabilise financial markets by a combination of confidence-building and hard-steering measures: capital controls, FX controls, regulatory easing for financial institutions, and a doubling of the key policy rate. The medium-term and long-term outlook is negative. As a result of the war and the sanctions, the rest of Europe faces a surge in already high inflation; this will weigh on real incomes and will depress economic growth. Many European countries rely heavily on Russia for oil and gas imports: import shares are over 75% in Czechia, Latvia, Hungary, Slovakia, and Bulgaria with respect to natural gas; Slovakia, Lithuania, Poland, and Finland with respect to oil and petroleum; and Cyprus, Estonia, Latvia, Denmark, Lithuania, Greece, and Bulgaria with respect to solid fuels. Aside from energy, the fallout via trade for the rest of Europe is likely to be small. Non-energy trade and investment links between Russia and many European countries have declined in importance since 2013. There are four main areas of structural change and lasting impact for the EU (and Europe more broadly) as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. First, the EU will get more serious about defence. Second, the green transition will gather pace. Third, broader Eurasian economic integration will be unwound. And fourth, the EU accession prospects for countries in Southeast Europe could (and should) improve.

     

Change and persistence in the Age of Modernization: Saint-Germain-d’Anxure, 1730–1895

Using a unique, comprehensive household-level dataset for a single French village, we study the process of modernization during a period of rapid institutional and demographic transformation. We document changes in fertility, mortality, literacy and intergenerational social mobility. The fall in fertility followed the French Revolution and the Age of Enlightenment, and preceded the rise in education by several decades. Rising literacy followed an increase in the supply of schooling due to the Guizot Law. All these changes occurred in the absence of industrialization in and around the village. We conclude that institutional and cultural changes originating outside the village were likely the dominant forces accounting for its modernization.     

Resource conflict in Kenya’s titanium mining industry: Ethno-ecology and the redefinition of ownership,control, and compensation

The literature on community-mining enterprise conflict is currently dominated by discourses on equity, compensation, land ownership, and environmental degradation. While much debate has dwelled on whether mining is a curse or a blessing, little attention has been given to highlight the meanings that communities attach to the assets being fought over, and the need therefore to review existing laws on mining, and practices to reflect these realities.

The displacement of over 3000 residents in Kwale, Kenya to make way for the mining of titanium has raised serious concerns over indigenous resource ownership and control in Kenya’s mining industry, calling for a fresh look at the Kenyan mining law. Using an ethno-ecological approach, this article explains how a community’s loss of land assets can induce a sense of vulnerability which can prefigure conflict. The conflict demonstrates the need for a more sensitive approach to community resource ownership and indigenous mineral control.     

Children’s Work in Nigeria: Exploring the Implications of Gender, Urban–Rural Residence, and Household Socioeconomic Status

Child labor in developing countries continues to be a topic of policy and academic concern, particularly in Africa where there are more working children than in any other region. Scholarly attention has been drawn in part to gender, place of residence, and socioeconomic status as factors that shape the type of work that children perform and whether it impacts educational attainment. I explore these issues in the context of Nigeria through analysis of data from the 2004 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey EdData Survey. A series of logistic regression models of child labor confirm the existence of gender and, especially, socioeconomic disparities in children??s work. The data also indicate that girls and rural children face a double risk of working if they belong to poor households. A policy implication is that poverty alleviation programs??such as Mexico??s Oportunidades program (the erstwhile PROGRESA)??may help to reduce those forms of child labor that interfere with schooling. That this program has been found to more beneficial for girls suggests it may be particularly appropriate for Nigeria where gender disparities persist.     

‘Cooperation on a purely matter-of-fact basis’: the Norwegian central bank and its relationship to the German supervisory authority during the occupation, 1940–1945

Recent publications have addressed the issue of the financial contribution of occupied countries to the German war economy from 1939 until 1945. Occupied countries contributed between 25 and 30% of the total German war costs. According to recent calculations, the Norwegian contribution has been between 6 and 7% of the occupied countries' total contribution; per capita the Norwegian war tribute was twice the average of the occupied West-European countries. The main aim of the paper is to explain how the relatively large Norwegian contribution came about by focusing on the institutional arrangements of financial transfers. The role of the central bank, Norges Bank, and its relationship with its German supervisory authority during the occupation is particularly important. The accommodating behaviour of Norges Bank (NB) and the shrewd institutional set-up and actual operandi of the monetary and financial occupation regime in Norway, based on indirect governance, served German interests better than the more frequent use of direct rule and open inference in the equivalent domestic institutions in Belgium, France and The Netherlands.     

Asia's ‘little divergence’ in the twentieth century: evidence from PPP-based direct estimates of GDP per capita, 1913–69

This article uses expenditure-based purchasing power parities (PPPs) to estimate GDP per capita in comparable prices for 12 Asian countries for six benchmark years during the period 1913–69. The article finds that in 1913 levels of real GDP per capita in several countries were comparable to those in Japan. GDP per capita in Japan and other Asian countries diverged during and after the First World War. The article questions whether Asia's ‘little divergence’ between Japan and other Asian countries dates back to the late eighteenth century. It draws attention to the different resource endowments of Japan, China, and India compared to other Asian countries, and their implications for the development trajectories of Asian countries. The article demonstrates that using historical PPP estimates yields estimates of GDP per capita that diverge from those based on retropolations of the single 1990 PPP-converted benchmark year. It concludes that historical estimates of PPPs are needed to confirm analyses of comparative economic performance based on available GDP per capita data.     

Language,knowledge transfer and firm’s strategic assets: the strategic role of language in knowledge transfer to China

This article is intended to examine the exact role of language in intra-firm cross-country knowledge transfer from the perspective of developing firm’s strategic assets. We find that inadequate language ability can lead to communication failures and cultural misunderstanding, and has the potential to destroy the process of knowledge transfer. Hence, language is not an operational issue but of strategic importance to the transfer of knowledge within multinational enterprises. As language ability is uniquely related to the specific technical, managerial and cultural aspects of a firm, hard to substitute and imitate, it should be regarded as one of the firm’s strategic assets and be dealt at strategic level.     

Monetary Policy in Austria–Hungary, 1876–1913: An Econometric Analysis of the Determinants of the Central Bank’s Discount Rate and the Liquidity Ratio

This paper presents a model to explain the official discount rate of the Central Bank of Austria–Hungary from 1876 to 1913. The discount rate is assumed to depend on the liquidity ratio of the Bank, defined as the ratio of its stock of metals to banknotes issued, and on changes in foreign discount rates. The paper also presents an equation explaining the liquidity ratio. We use “not equally spaced chronologically ordered data” referring to the 50 discount rate changes enacted. The regressions confirm that the liquidity ratio was the main determinant of the discount rate and that Germany (and not Great Britain) played a significant role in determining the Austro–Hungarian discount rate and the liquidity ratios, supporting the view that the classical gold standard was a decentralized multipolar system rather than a system fully dominated by London as suggested by Keynes. The regressions also suggest that, although Austria–Hungary had an inconvertible paper currency (1879–1892) and fluctuating exchange rates (1876–1895) and formally joined the gold standard only in 1902, it “shadowed” the behaviour of gold standard Central Banks with such consistency that the stability of the estimated regressions was relatively unaffected by the frequent institutional changes.