基于多水平发展模型的工业生产性服务外部化时空分异及影响因素研究

针对中国东部经济发达地区和西部欠发达地区工业生产性服务外部化同处高位的现象,基于2002、2007、2012和2017年中国地区投入产出表,采用HLM构建多水平发展模型,探索其动态演变趋势及行业、区域差异.实证结果显示:工业生产性服务外部化呈先下降后上升的U型动态变化趋势;外部化水平行业和区域间均存在显著差异,但其发展速度区域差异显著,行业差异不显著;市场规模、资本密集程度、生产性服务业发展水平、市场化等因素对外部化均存在显著影响.     

Efficiency and distribution of rural construction land marketization in contemporary China

Since 2015, a national trial on rural construction land marketization has been conducted in 15 counties in China; this trial is regarded as the most significant step taken to date to reform the extant rural-urban dual land governance system. The trial aims to investigate the performance of an integrated rural-urban construction land market in facilitating land resource allocation efficiency and land revenue distribution equality. The objective of this paper is to understand the ongoing rural construction land marketization in China, with a particular focus on its efficiency and distribution effects. To this end, the theoretical model for rural construction land marketization is extended based on Tan, Qu, Heerink, and Mettepenningen (2011), a partial equilibrium model is developed for the empirical analysis, and recent rural construction land marketization practices in Deqing County, Zhejiang Province, are examined for empirical evidence. The study concludes that 1) rural construction land marketization indeed improves land allocation efficiency, and 2) rural construction land marketization also leads to a welfare gain for the rural sector, in particular by inducing redistribution effects from the urban to the rural sector.     

Marketization,environmental regulation,and eco-friendly productivity: A Malmquist–Luenberger index for pollution emissions of large Chinese firms

Marketization requires individuals and firms to increase energy efficiency and improve environmental quality, and various levels of governments interested in environmental protection have adopted tough environmental regulations. This paper develops data envelopment analysis (DEA) to measure unified efficiency at the firm level by introducing energy utilization and pollution emissions. A Malmquist–Luenberger efficiency model with undesirable output follows radial measurement by directional distance function type. We analyze green productive efficiency in relation to polluting emissions using a large dynamic panel dataset of 229,491 Chinese manufacturing firms from 1998 to 2012. We identify that marketization and environmental regulation both significantly facilitate green productivity. Further, our findings imply that both marketization and regulatory effects weakened from the tenth to the twelfth Five-Year Plans. Regarding effects across ownership type, green total factor productivity (TFP) growth of state-owned enterprises is significantly affected by regulation but not marketization. Private and foreign-owned firms are both significantly affected by marketization and regulation. Regionally, green TFP growth is positively associated with marketization and regulation in central China. East China’s green TFP growth is motivated by marketization, and West China’s green TFP growth is strongly driven by regulation.     

India's Global Trade Potential: The Gravity Model Approach

Abstract

In this article an augmented gravity model equation has been used to analyze the world trade flows using a sample of 146 countries. The coefficients thus obtained are then used to predict trade potential for India. Ordinary Least Squares with cross-section data for the year 2000 have been used for estimation. The results show that all three traditional “gravity” effects are intuitively reasonable, with statistically significant t-statistic often exceeding 50 in absolute value. Alternative measures of gross national product (GNP) dollar value and purchasing power parity do not alter either the sign or significance of different explanatory variables. Historical and cultural similarities also impact positively upon bilateral trade. As concerns India's trade potential, the model shows that there is tremendous potential with China and trade can more than double if barriers and constraints are removed. Our estimates also indicate a huge potential, of the order of US$6.5 billion, with Pakistan.     

GTAP Model Analysis of the Economic Effects of an Australia–China FTA: Welfare and Sectoral Aspects

Abstract

The Australia–China Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA) is already in the process of being negotiated by the two governments. This paper employs the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model using Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database version 6 for a quantitative analysis of the economic effects of proposed ACFTA. Four scenarios are examined in the paper focusing on flexible and fixed current account positions within short run and long run. Equivalent variation (EV) and real consumption are used to measure the welfare effects resulting from the formation of the ACFTA. The results from the GTAP simulations show positive welfare effects for both Australia and China in all cases. Sectoral results show mixed outcomes.     

利率管制、LPR与完全市场化下的货币政策传导机制:理论对比与实证检验

2019年8月,中国人民银行正式启用修订后的贷款基础利率(LPR),标志着中国利率市场化改革步入收官阶段。这使得有关利率市场化能否保障货币政策有效性并从根本上改善货币政策传导效率的探讨再度成为焦点。鉴于此,文章构建了DSGE模型和TVP-VAR模型,详细对比了不同市场化程度下利率政策的有效性和传导效率,主要得出以下三点结论:第一,随着市场化程度的不断加深,产出、通胀与企业价值对利率调控的反应愈加敏感,表明利率市场化改革能够优化利率的宏微观传导效率;第二,模拟分析显示,完全市场化将会大幅降低利率政策的宏观传导效率,同时还可能诱发逆向选择并导致微观传导渠道失灵,因此货币当局仍应对利率完全市场化持必要谨慎;最后,实证检验结果表明,LPR的推出进一步提高了利率传导效率,这说明在完全市场化的初级阶段,采取LPR等过渡元素逐渐加强市场定价主导地位不失为双轨合一过程中的有益尝试。     

金融市场化改革政策的跨市场信息传递机制

在金融业分业监管的背景下,我国金融市场化改革政策的发布往往是独立的,少有对信息跨市场传递的影响进行全局性考量。通过构建TVP-VAR模型,对金融市场化改革政策在货币市场、外汇市场、股票市场和债券市场间的跨市场信息传递路径进行识别,结果发现:金融市场各子市场间的跨市场信息传递路径正在向理论机制靠拢,且随着我国金融市场化程度的提高而趋于稳定。这意味着,金融市场的市场化程度与政府机构对其把控力度并不冲突,但须在金融市场化改革政策落地前加强对信息跨市场传递总体影响的评估,避免因政策制定而引发不同子市场间的顺周期波动。     

要素市场化配置程度测度、区域差异分解与动态演进——基于中国省际面板数据的实证研究

文章构建了基于市场化配置程度、市场化运作程度以及市场准入程度三大子系统52个具体指标的中国要素市场化配置程度综合评价指标体系。利用熵值法测算出2005-2018年中国要素市场化配置程度综合指数以及三个子系统指数,并运用Dagum基尼系数和Kernel密度估计方法揭示要素市场化配置程度的区域差异及演进趋势。研究发现：中国要素市场化配置综合指数总体表现为上升的趋势,市场准入程度相对于市场化配置以及市场化运作水平较高;中国要素市场化配置程度区域发展不协调,水平由高到低依次为东部-东北-中部-西部地区;中国要素市场化配置水平的区域差异主要来源于区域间差异,且东部-中部、东部-西部、东部-东北部地区间差异呈扩张趋势,中部-西部、中部-东北、西部和东北地区区域间差异呈逐步缩小趋势。文章为构建要素市场化配置综合评价指标提供有力的实证支撑,同时为提高中国及四大地区要素市场化配置水平提供有效的依据。     

Spatial analysis of competition among local governments and the price of land: the case of Zhejiang Province

Abstract

This empirical study focuses on competition between local governments as they strive to attract companies through the auction of land use rights. In the literature on competition between local governments, the focus has tended to be toward growth rates based on performance evaluation or tax rate-based competition for attracting companies. In China, the property tax system is still underdeveloped and local governments cannot independently set tax rates. Therefore, this study focuses on a type of ‘dumping’ activity by which local governments auction land use rights to attract industrial companies and empirically test this hypothesis using the spatial lag model.     

Modeling the Behavior of the KRW/USD Exchange Rate and Policy Implications

Abstract

This paper examines the behavior of the KRW/USD exchange rate based on four major models. Using the mean absolute percent error (MAPE) as the criterion, the purchasing power parity (PPP) model using the relative producer price index (PPI) performs the best, followed by the extended investment saving-liquidity preference money supply (IS-LM) model, the Frankel model, the purchasing power parity model based on the relative consumer price index (CPI), the Dornbusch model, the Frenkel model, and the uncovered interest parity model. The generalized Box–Cox model indicates that the log-log form for the PPP model can be rejected.     

Volatility Spillovers between the US and China Stock Markets: Structural Break Test with Symmetric and Asymmetric GARCH Approaches

Abstract

The paper examines the short-run spillover effects of daily stock returns and volatilities between the Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500 stock index in the US and the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) index in China. First, we find that a structural break occurred in the SSE stock return mean in December 2005. Second, by analyzing modified general autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH)(1,1)-M models, we find evidence of a symmetric and asymmetric volatility spillover effect from the US to the China stock market in the post-break period. Third, we observe the symmetric volatility spillover effect from China to the US in the post-break period.     

FDI对我国市场化程度影响的实证研究

构建了一个衡量市场化程度的指标体系,并计算得到中国1986～2005年的市场化程度相对指数,就FDI对市场化程度影响进行了实证分析。研究结果表明:FDI与中国市场化程度之间存在稳定的长期均衡关系,FDI有效地促进了中国市场化程度的提高。     

The economic background to the union of 1707

Abstract

The view that Scotland was in a state of economic stagnation in the seventeenth century, particularly in the years between the Restoration and the Union, is one which has long been held. Once economic and political historians have read Dr. Smout's book, however, this view will no doubt be greatly modified¹.     

市场化、南北差距及其根源——基于作物性质的政治经济学考察

中国经济发展的区域差异及其根源，一直备受学界关注。其中，市场化发育的区域差异是解释经济发展差距的重要线索。然而，市场发育区域差异的生成根源却未能得到恰当的处理与阐释。文章试图从作物性质的政治经济学维度，构建"政府管制-作物性质-逃避策略"的逻辑框架，探讨区域经济发展差距背后市场发育的决定机理。文章认为，如果将市场化进程视为政府管制放松的过程，那么管制放松就可以区分为主动管制放松与被动管制放松。由可实施逃避策略所决定的被动管制放松及其所触发的市场化进程往往具有不可逆性。由此，逃避策略选择的区域差异性，将导致区域市场化发育程度的不同进而带来经济增长的差异。基于全国1997-2016年面板数据的实证分析表明：由"无政府主义"的作物种植所表达的管制逃避策略，能够显著促进市场化的发育程度；作物种植差异及其所蕴含的种植文化特性，共同决定了南北市场化差异；源于2013年全面开展的农地确权，进一步强化"南强北弱"的管制逃避，导致南北经济差异不断扩大。本研究有助于为中国区域经济增长差异提供新的洞见，从而为缓解不平衡不充分发展问题并推进中国区域经济的协调发展提供政策依据。     

On the Aggregate Labor Supply: A Progress Report

Abstract

At the aggregate level, the labor supply elasticity can significantly depart from the micro elasticity. In an economy where households make decisions on the labor market participation, the slope of the aggregate labor supply curve is determined by the distribution of reservation wages rather than by the willingness to substitute leisure intertemporally. We present a model economy where earnings and wealth distributions are comparable to those in the micro data. We find that the aggregate labor supply elasticity of such an economy is around 1, which is greater than the typical micro estimates but smaller than those often assumed in the aggregate models. Our model also sheds some light on the recent debate on the failure of the representative agent model.     

The Korean Economy in Transition: In Search for a New Model

Abstract

Prior to the 1997 financial crisis, the Korean economy had based its growth policies on East Asia's economic catch-up model which was based mainly on the Japanese development experience. However, the events that lead to the 1997 crisis and the changes instituted in the Korean economy after the crisis have put to question whether the traditional East Asian growth model will continue to be viable. This paper examines two alternative models of development, namely the “Anglo-Saxon” and the “Continental European” models, and evaluates their relevance for Korea's future development challenges. Despite many common features these models share, they are also quite distinctive with regard to their treatment of the labor market system and the role of government. By focusing on the model's capacity to expand employment and to provide sustainable growth as the most important criteria, it is suggested that Korea should follow the “Anglo-Saxon model”, at least in the short- to medium-term. In comparing Korea's economy with other advanced economies when they were at the similar stage of development, it is found that Korea's growth potential lags behind that of countries such as Japan, Germany, Finland, and Ireland. The efficiency of Korea's investment is found to be only slightly better than Japan while it is inferior to all other advanced economies. Despite these challenges, Korea is apparently moving toward the “Continental European model”, with the Korean government increasing its own size and plans for further expenditures on social security and welfare. However, in order to ensure sustainable development with significant job creation, this paper argues that Korea should switch its direction and adopt the “Anglo-Saxon model” as soon as possible.     

The Political Economy of Chinese “Federalism”: New Analytical Directions

Abstract

Decentralized politico-administrative structures may be dissected and assessed by employing a variety of conceptual tools. In the case of China, researchers have displayed a distinct preference for operating within a framework grounded in political sociology. Substantial insights have been generated in the process, but it may be argued, and empirically demonstrated, that a complementary approach, seeking inspiration from political economy, may shed additional light on the functioning of the Chinese quasi-federal system.     

农地流转的当下情势与典型模式观照

对我国部分地区农民承包地和集体建设用地流转创新的宅基地换房、换社保政府主导模式、集体建设用地市场化流转农民主导模式、确权赋能土地产权综合改革模式、农用地规模化租赁性经营模式、农民承包地股份合作模式等五种典型模式的研究表明,农村土地流转制度的建设应以土地确权为基础,以市场化机制建设为核心;地方政府应改变运动员角色,让利于民,履行好市场管理与监督职能。     

Do CEO's early-life marketization experiences affect the innovation behavior of SMEs?

We investigate the relationship between chief executive officers’ (CEOs) early-life exposure to marketization transition and the research and development (R&D) intensity of Chinese small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). We find that there is a significant positive relationship between the early-life transition experiences of CEOs and the R&D intensity of SMEs. CEOs who have experienced higher stages of marketization transition are significantly more likely to engage in proactive innovation activities. The means of the potential R&D intensity distributions are increasing in the treatment level, although this increasing trend is not always significant. Overall, the results confirm the view that experiencing a transition in early-life significantly facilitates CEOs’ engagement in innovation activities.     

我国农村公共物品供给市场化的困境分析——以小型水利设施为例

我国农村公共物品的市场化供给模式已引起理论界的广泛关注。以农村小型水利设施为例,我国市场化供给模式中存在着运作前提条件不充分、市场化经济和社会效益低、市场化后供需不平衡、市场化无法实现的水利工程运营高效率和兼顾社会公平等困难。究其原因,农户对小型水利设施特殊的需求状况——需求主体很小的需求弹性、需求主体的变动性、需求主体的分散性和需求主体的层次性,是我国农村小型水利设施市场化供给模式难以广泛推广的主要制约因素。因此,小型水利设施市场化改革需解决以上困境,不宜简单地把农村公共物品的供给予以市场化,坚持政府投入为主,逐步市场化的策略是破解我国农村公共物品供给市场化困境的权宜之路。