Natural resources in the theory of production: the Georgescu-Roegen/Daly versus Solow/Stiglitz controversy

Abstract

This paper provides a theoretical and methodological account of an important controversy between neoclassical resource economics and ecological economics from the early 1970s to the end of the 1990s. It shows that the assumption of unbounded resource productivity in the work of Solow and Stiglitz–and the related concepts of substitution and technical progress–rest on a model-based methodology. On the other hand, Georgescu-Roegen’s assumption of thermodynamic limits to production, later revived by Daly, comes from a methodology of interdisciplinary consistency. I conclude that neither side provided a definitive proof of its own claim because both face important conceptual issues.     

Between mathematical formalism,normative choice rules,and the behavioural sciences: The emergence of rational choice theories in the late 1940s and early 1950s

Abstract

This paper discusses why mathematical economists of the early Cold War period favored formal-axiomatic over behavioral choice theories. One reason was that formal-axiomatic theories allowed mathematical economists to improve the conceptual and theoretical foundations of economics and thereby to increase its scientific status. Furthermore, the separation between mathematical economics and other behavioral sciences was not as clear-cut as often argued. While economists did not modify their behavioral assumptions, some acknowledged the empirical shortcomings of their models. The paper reveals the multifaceted nature of rational choice theories reflected in the changing interpretations and roles of the theories in those early years.     

Position-Dependent order effects on the prediction of consumer preferences in repeated choice experiments

Using stated choice data collected by experimental design with repeated choice tasks, this study developed an approach to quantify the position-dependent order effects on the prediction of preferences and marginal willingness to pay for product attributes. Results showed that repeated choice tasks allow learning to occur. Models with order effect adjustments showed significant improvements in goodness of fit. Attribute-specific polynomial trends showed the best fit among all models, which could possibly be explained by respondents’ familiarity and sensitivity to different product attributes. Repeated-choice experiments have a good potential to capture consumer preferences more accurately than the single-choice design. But order effects need to be taken into account for preferences and market prediction.     

Japanese Consumption,External Disequilibrium and their Statistical Measurement

Georgescu-Roegen's work is usually divided into two categories, his earlier work on consumer and production theory and his later concern with entropy and bioeconomics beginning with his 1966 introductory essay to his collected theoretical papers published in the volume Analytical Economics. Most economists usually praise his earlier work on pure theory and ignore his later work which is highly critical of neoclassical economics. Those economists sympathetic to his later work usually take the position that he “saw the light” and gave up neoclassical theory some time in the 1960s to turn his attention to the issues of resource scarcity and social institutions. It is argued here that there is an unbroken path running from Georgescu's work in pure theory in the 1930s, 1940s, and 1950s, through his writings on peasant economies in the 1960s, leading to his preoccupation with entropy and bioeconomics in the last 25 years of his life. That common thread is his preoccupation with “valuation.” The choices our species makes about resource use and the distribution of economic output depends upon our valuation framework. Georgescu-Roegen's work begins in the 1930s with a critical examination of the difficulties with the hedonistic valuation framework of neoclassical economics, moves in the 1960s to the conflict between social and hedonistic valuation, and culminates in the 1970s and 1980s with his examination of the conflict between individual, social, and environmental values. This paper traces the evolution of Georgescu-Roegen's thought about valuation and the environmental and social policy recommendations which arise out of his bioeconomic framework.     

Testing the integrability of consumer demand functions: Federal Republic of Germany, 1950–1973

The purpose of this paper is to implement a new econometric methodology for testing the theory of consumer behavior. We begin by fitting systems of indirect and direct demand functions without requiring integrability. We then impose restrictions on the parameters of these functions implied by integrability. We test restrictions corresponding to homogeneity, summability, symmetry, nonnegativity, and monotonicity of systems of demand functions. We formulate tests based on two-sided critical intervals for restrictions that take the form of equalities. We employ tests based on one-sided critical intervals for restrictions that take the form of inequalities. We present empirical results for tests of integrability for German time series data on personal consumption expenditures for the period 1950–1973.     

Toward a non-linear theory of economic fluctuations: Allais's contribution to endogenous business cycle theory in the 1950s

Abstract

In this framework, the existence of a limit cycle is mathematically proved and its existence confirmed by empirical evidence. The mathematical tools are similar to Keynesian pioneering non-linear macrodynamic advances but the theoretical framework is obviously totally distinct. In particular, for Allais, the origin of endogenous cycles is monetary, and explained by the interplay between two key elements: the agents that hold the desired money balances and the banking system that can create money.     

Reliving the 1950s: the big push, poverty traps, and takeoffs in economic development

The classic narrative of economic development—poor countries are caught in poverty traps, out of which they need a Big Push involving increased investment, leading to a takeoff in per capita income—has been very influential in foreign aid debates since the 1950s. This was the original justification for foreign aid. The narrative lost credibility for a while but has made a big comeback in the new millennium. Once again it is invoked as a rationale for large foreign aid programs. This paper applies very simple tests to the various elements of the narrative. Evidence to support the narrative is scarce. Poverty traps in the sense of zero growth for low-income countries are rejected by the data in the whole period 1950–2001 and for most sub-periods. The poorest quintile also does not have significant negative growth of the relative income ratio to the world’s richest country over 1950–2001, nor is relative growth for the lowest quintile significantly different than other quintiles. The claim that “well-governed poor nations” are caught in poverty traps is rejected by simple regressions that control for both initial income and quality of government (instrumenting for the latter). The idea of the takeoff also does not garner much support in the data. Takeoffs are rare in the data, most plausibly limited to the Asian success stories. Even then, the takeoffs are not associated with aid, investment, or education spending as the standard narrative would imply.     

Price expectations, capital accumulation and employment: Lindahl's macroeconomics from the 1920s to the 1950s

Erik Lindahl's approach to macroeconomics focused on the non-neutralityof monetary policy (in the short and the long run) and on thedenial of the existence of natural rates of interest and unemployment.From the 1920s until his death in 1960, Lindahl advocated theuse of norms for monetary policy to fight inflation and deflationprecisely because he would not rely on the market system's returnto natural rates. Making use of hitherto unexplored material,this paper analyses the development of Lindahl's thinking aboutprice level changes, investment and employment from the 1920sto the 1950s.     

Nonlinear income effects in random utility models: revisiting the accuracy of the representative consumer approximation

This article investigates the implications of nonlinear income effects in Random Utility Models (RUM) for measuring general equilibrium welfare impacts. A popular approach in applied welfare analysis is to approximate the expected compensating variation (cv) for an amenity change as the cv of a representative consumer whose indirect utility is given by the expected maximum utility. However, this approach can be misleading in the case of nonmarginal changes as it implies that changes in income do not affect the consumer's choice. In this case the true expected cv can be obtained via simulation. Empirical applications to recreational demand find that the bias from the representative approach is small. This article re-evaluates the accuracy of the representative consumer approximation in the context of measuring the general equilibrium welfare impacts of large environmental changes. Our findings suggest that, though the representative consumer approximation could lead to biased point estimates of the expected cv, this bias is overwhelmed by the size of the confidence intervals that result from the empirical estimation of household preferences.     

Asymmetric search and prospect theory: choice experiment on consumer willingness to search in the gasoline retail market

We use an internet survey conducted among a representative random sample of drivers in the State of Ohio consisting of a choice experiment designed to examine the mechanism driving asymmetric search. The internet survey affords us the opportunity to overcome endogeneity difficulties by imposing exogenous price changes on gasoline consumers to examine the decision-making process behind intended search decisions. We randomly assigned participants to one of five price treatments (either 2.5 or 5% above or below their reported expected price, or no change). We provide a simple empirical model to derive testable implications under prospect theory and use the internet survey to test them. Results indicate that among the respondents who faced prices below their expected price, only 12% chose to search, whereas 45% searched when prices were above. Further, we find results consistent with asymmetric search being driven by prospect theory. The change in consumers’ willingness to search is twice as large when prices exceed expectations by 2.5% relative to when prices exceed them by 5% suggesting that consumers derive utility of finding a good deal evaluated relative to a reference price. We show that this result is inconsistent with standard utility theory or consumers using alternative reference prices.     

20世纪50-60年代中国人口统计数据存在的问题探讨

关于1959-1961年中国大陆人口死亡规模一直有争议。这种争议往往是对同一来源的数据有不同的解释,很少有人对这一数据的准确程度作分析。事实上,当年的人口统计、人口普查数据均存在一定程度的误差。对这一时期人口死亡规模的估计,应该更多地从人口学专业的角度出发,对当年的基础人口数据重新评估。     

Normative ecological rationality: normative rationality in the fast-and-frugal-heuristics research program

The purpose of this paper is to examine the normative interpretation of the fast-and-frugal research program and in particular to contrast it with the normative reading of rational choice theory and behavioral economics. The ecological rationality of fast-and-frugal heuristics is admittedly a form of normative naturalism (Gigerenzer and Sturm 2012) – it derives what agents “ought” to do from that which “is” ecologically rational – and the paper will examine how this differs from the normative rationality associated with rational choice theory. I will also attempt to assess the relative adequacy of normative ecological rationality.     

Choice, preference and rationalizability in pareto’s theory of economic behavior

Pareto initiated the shift of economic theory from utility/preference to choice in order to fill a gap between theoretical and empirical economics. His suggestions for an empirically-oriented theory of choice were to be developed decades later in the literature on revealed preference and on the conditions of equivalence between preference-based and choice-based axiomatic structures. In the process, however, substantial departures from Pareto’s implicit design of the situation of choice were introduced. In this paper, the conditions for the rationalizability of choice are re-defined so that they fit the type of situation that Pareto had in mind. The result is that the main consistency axioms of standard choice theory have to give way to a different combination of axioms that concern decisiveness as well as consistency. (JEL:B13, D01, D11).     

Welfare economics and bounded rationality: the case for model-based approaches

In this paper, we examine the problems facing a policy maker who observes inconsistent choices made by agents who are boundedly rational. We contrast a model-less and a model-based approach to welfare economics. We make the case for the model-based approach and examine its advantages as well as some problematic issues associated with it.     

Engel’s curve and product differentiation: A dynamic analysis of the effects of quality on consumer’s choice

The application of Engel’s Curve in a single-product perspective may dramatically change the role of quality in affecting the dynamics of economic performance. This paper introduces a specification of preferences that regards quality as luxury, and quantity as necessary. The analysis is carried out by using a framework similar to Grossman’s and Helpman ’s (1991), while quality is defined as in Stokey (1988). The resulting consumer’s demand crucially depends on quality. Quality is potentially able to prevent the process, implied by neoclassical models, that leads the value of consumption goods to decline over time. By doing so, quality also affects the consumption bundle shares and the variety-specific consumption growth rates, thus influencing all dynamic quantitative variables of the economy. I thank Professor Beniamino Moro for his guidance and encouragement. I thank Stephen Wright for his comments and suggestions. I have benefited from the support of Alessio Moro, Dario Unali, Debora Fletcher, Emilio Merella, Esteban Jaimovich, Francesca Lamanna, Matteo Bellinzas, Mauro Merella and all my friends. I am also indebted to Professor Cuong Le Van and Professor Stephen Parente for their advice. I thank two anonymous Referees for their useful remarks.     

The role of risk and risk-aversion in adoption of alternative marketing arrangements by the US farmers

The objective of this article is to analyse the relationship between farmers’ risk-aversions and the riskiness of various agricultural enterprises to see which marketing arrangements would typically emerge. Relying on the basic agency theory model, we hypothesize the prevalence of alternative marketing arrangements (AMAs) in situations with high risk-averse farmers and high-risk enterprises and the prevalence of spot (cash) markets for low risk-averse participants and less risky enterprises. Our empirical tests are carried out using the 2004 Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS). The empirical results are largely supportive of the agency theory of contract choice.     

20世纪50～70年代中国沿海与内地经济发展差距研究

新中国成立后到1978年,中国政府地区经济发展和区域经济布局的基本方针,是利用计划经济体制集中调动资源的能力,重点投资和开发建设内陆地区.人们把这种区域发展战略概括为平衡发展战略.但是,经过50～70年代的建设,沿海地区与内地经济发展的差距不但没有缩小,反而呈继续扩大趋势.其中的经验教训需要认真加以总结,为今天的西部开发战略提供启示和借鉴.     

Quasi-linear preferences in the macroeconomy: Indeterminacy,heterogeneity and the representative consumer

We use aggregation theory to investigate the link between one-consumer and multi-consumer economies under a quasi-linear class of preferences. Our study is carried out in the context of the neoclassical growth model. The quasi-linear preferences considered are additive in consumption and leisure and linear in leisure. We first show that in a homogeneous agents economy, the individual hours worked are not uniquely determined. We then demonstrate that the indeterminacy can be resolved by introducing heterogeneity. For example, idiosyncratic shocks to productivities or imperfect substitutability of labor restore the uniqueness of equilibrium. As a special case, our analysis includes the indivisible labor model by Hansen (1985).JEL Classification: C73, D90, E21We are grateful to Morten Ravn for his guidance. We have benefited from the comments of an anonymous referee, Jordi Caballé, Finn Kydland, Franck Portier, Michael Reiter, Xavier Sala-i-Martin, William Schworm and Andrew Scott. Any remaining errors are ours. This research was supported by the Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas and the Ministerio de Ciencia y Tecnología de España, the Ramón y Cajal program, and BEC 2001-0535.     

Prospect theory in the wild: how good is the nonexperimental evidence for prospect theory?

ABSTRACT

Prospect theory is widely thought to be one of the best-confirmed accounts of human decision-making under risk. There are numerous claims in the literature that various kinds of nonexperimental, observational evidence provide strong support for prospect theory. We investigate the veracity of these claims using a set of philosophy of science morals and a careful delineation of models of choice under risk, focussing on the extant versions of prospect theory and their various components. We challenge the claim that prospect theory is well supported because it explains the equity premium puzzle. In addition, we analyse a major international survey thought to support prospect theory and argue that the support is questionable, both for statistical reasons and because the evidence itself is mixed. Our analyses highlight some important ideas in the philosophy of science and caution against strong claims about support for prospect theory that rely on nonexperimental, observational evidence.